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Viewing cable 09ISTANBUL78, TURKISH THINK TANK EXPERTS EXPOUND ON IRAN
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ISTANBUL78 | 2009-02-26 10:34 | 2011-06-26 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Istanbul |
Appears in these articles: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/04/17/112290/state-department-cables-reveal.html |
VZCZCXRO3132
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHIT #0078/01 0571034
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261034Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8792
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000078
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR XXXXXXXXXXXX; BAKU FOR XXXXXXXXXXXX;
ASHGABAT FOR XXXXXXXXXXXX; BAGHDAD FOR XXXXXXXXXXXX AND XXXXXXXXXXXX
DUBAI FOR IRPO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KNNP IAEA TU IR
SUBJECT: TURKISH THINK TANK EXPERTS EXPOUND ON IRAN
REF: A) ANKARA 284 B) 08 ISTANBUL 287
Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Sandra Oudkirk; Reason 1.5 (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: We recently pulsed private Turkish experts
for latest views on Turkey-Iran and US-Iran relations. The
most common themes we heard were: Turkey and Iran, as
neighbors and rivals, both seek a stable "balance of power"
with each other and usually pursue bilateral relations with
that goal in mind; changing Iran's policies will require
changing the regime's worldview "which won't come cheap" (and
must include US respect for Iran's regional interests and
influence); and Turkey can help the US and P5 1 talk to Iran.
End Summary.
¶2. (SBU) Accompanied by visiting UNVIE Senior Advisor Andrea
Hall (ref A), we met February 17 in Ankara for discussions on
Turkey-Iran and US-Iran relations with Dr. Mustafa Kibaroglu
(Bilkent University), Professor Meliha Altunisik (Middle East
Technical University), Duygu Guvenc (Sabah newspaper), and
Dr. Arif Keskin of the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies
(ASAM). We met February 18 in Istanbul with Ambassador Murat
Bilhan, Dr. Vural Altin and Dr. Necmi Dayday of the
Turkish-Asian Center for Strategic Studies (TASAM), Dr. Ercan
Citlioglu and retired LTG Metin Yalcin from Bahcesehir
University's Strategic Research Center, and Can Buharali of
the Center for Political and Economic Studies (EDAM).
Offer More, Start Secretly, Let Turkey Help
-----------------------------------------
¶3. (SBU) Kibaroglu, a leading academic on nonproliferation,
said that P5 1 pressure and diplomacy can slow down Iran's
nuclear program, but stopping it will require far more than
has yet been offered. The 2006 offer does not address the
regime's key needs: assurances of regime survival, and
acceptance of Iran's leading role in the region. To the
regime the benefits of a nuclear weapons capability outweigh
the risks, especially now that the U.S. military option seems
"off the table" and prospects for more UNSC sanctions in the
near term seem remote. Moreover, the regime will never give
up the "prestige" of an enrichment capability, though it may
be persuaded to cap its capability at current levels. To
convince the regime to negotiate, the P5 1 should speak more
respectfully to Iran, raise international pressure on Iran as
much as possible to hold talks, make clear that additional
security-related incentives will be offered at the table, and
enlist Turkey's help, including to initiate talks in secret.
Kibaroglu asserted that "Iran trusts Turkey more than it does
anyone else in the region" and underscored that Turkey's
membership on the UNSC and the IAEA Board of Governors makes
it well-suited to act as a facilitator of P5 1-Iran talks.
Turkey has most to lose if Iran goes nuclear, Kibaroglu
insisted; it should participate in finding a solution.
Change Iran's worldview, not just its nuclear program
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶4. (SBU) According to METU International Relations
Department Chair Meliha Altunisik, Iran had high expectations
for a conciliatory approach from the Obama administration,
but recent indications suggest USG policy on Iran will not
change dramatically. Complicating prospects for engagement
is that the Iranian regime does not understand the USG's real
"bottom line": Is it to prevent Iran from building a nuclear
weapon, prevent Iran from mastering industrial-scale
enrichment, or prevent Iran from retaining any enrichment
capability at all? She urged the USG to clarify its
Iran/nuclear redlines precisely. She expressed concern that
other destabilizing Iranian policies (which also impact
Turkey) like support for terrorism, rejection of Israel, and
mischief in Iraq and Afghanistan might not be addressed as
forcefully by P5 1 negotiators struggling to strike a
workable nuclear deal with Iran. "The point of any deal
should be to change the Iranian regime's worldview, not just
its nuclear program." She also urged the USG to stop
publicly using the terms "carrot and stick", explaining that
Iranian officials believe the USG uses those terms out of
intentional disrespect, to make Iran seem subservient.
¶5. (SBU) Altunisik probed on current USG thinking about how
a future regional security arrangement involving Iran might
work. She suggested building off of the "Iraq and Neighbors"
process, since the key regional actors already participate,
and it is not "weighed down" by Arab-Israeli disputes. The
Iraq Neighbors Process might be used to agree on regional
security principles; identify mutual interests (e.g.,
fighting terrorism, piracy and drugs; addressing common
environmental problems); and develop practical cooperation on
the already-existing Ministerial tracks (e.g., among regional
Finance Ministries, Interior Ministries, etc. but with Iran
as the new focus instead of Iraq.
An Opposing View: Treat Iran Like "a Thief with a Gun"
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶6. (SBU) XXXXXXXXXXXX, an Iranian Azeri and long-time Iran
watcher, offered a pessimistic view of US-Iran relations in
2009, warning that if USG policy on Iran leans too much
towards engagement and incentives and away from sanctions and
the threat of military action we will make no progress in
slowing Iran's quest for nuclear weapons. He suggested this
has been a clear lesson of past interaction with Iran,
pointing out that Iran stopped its weaponization activities
in 2003 because it feared a U.S. attack in the wake of the
interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. "For Iran's leaders
to be convinced to do anything, they need to be scared." The
regime is committed to developing a nuclear weapons
capability to ensure that regional rivals (Russia, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt) and the U.S. cannot threaten it. No
package of incentives from the U.S. could offer Iran as much
security as a nuclear weapon. Moreover, Keskin told us, the
USG should stop focusing on Iran's presidential elections,
since only Supreme Leader Khamenei will make final decisions
about Iran-US relations. Even if Khamenei permits improved
relations, no future President other than Ahmadinejad has
enough credibility with hard-liners to win their full
support. Thus, counter-intuitively, Ahmadinejad probably
would be more useful in securing U.S. goals than Khatami.
Moreover, "if you wait until June to talk you might as well
wait until September, since Iran will say it needs that much
time to assemble a new administration." Between now and
June, Khamenei appears to have decided that Majles Speaker
Larijani should represent regime views to the international
community, rather than Ahmadinejad, FM Mottaki, or SNSC
Secretary Jalili.
¶7. (SBU) Once the USG is ready to meet with Iran, XXXXXXXXXXXX
reiterated, Washington should be prepared for a long,
difficult process. "You cannot end a 30-year long crisis in
confidence in a few months or even a few years," by which
time Iran will have acquired a nuclear weapons capability.
"Everyone in Iran thinks this is the year for the nuclear
program." XXXXXXXXXXXX likened Iran to a thief with a gun: "He
knows the gun may save his life or it may make someone else
kill him. Iran must be made to understand that if he does
not drop the gun, he will be killed."
Address Iran's many grievances and fears
------------------------------------
¶8. (SBU) TASAM Vice Chairman (and former Ambassador) Bilhan
and TASAM experts underscored Turkey's opposition to a
nuclear weapons capable Iran. They pointed to Iran's many
grievances against the US as evidence that the US must
restore trust with the regime before diplomacy can succeed.
Iran needs confidence it will have guaranteed access to
nuclear fuel in exchange for suspending its enrichment
program, for example. Its negative experience with EURODIF
in the 1980s convinced it not to trust such arrangements.
Iran wants to see more pressure on Israel to join the NPT.
Iran also worries that if it "comes clean" about a past
nuclear weapons program the US would use that admission as
grounds for military action. TASAM experts urged the U.S. to
stop issuing threats and instead use soft power,
confidence-building gestures, and incentives to bring Iran to
the negotiating table. Bilhan's contacts with Iranian
counterparts (including Iranian MFA think tank director
Mousavi, ref B) lead him to believe that Iran would be
willing to negotiate on the level of enrichment that it could
retain under strictest IAEA safeguards, but it would not
agree to dismantle its program completely.
¶9. (SBU) TASAM experts surmised that even if Iran eventually
achieved the ability to build a crude nuclear device, it
would probably not use it, nor would Iran be able to mount it
on a sophisticated delivery system for another decade or
more. As a result, Turkey does not consider Iran's nuclear
program to be an imminent threat. Turkey and Iran are
regional rivals with roughly comparable military forces, but
neither currently threatens (or has designs against) each
other's vital interests. On the other hand, Bilhan added,
the Gulf Arab states do see Iran's nuclear program, as well
as its conventional forces, as an imminent threat. Their
fears also must be addressed by P5 1 diplomacy.
Count on Ahmadinejad's re-election; Stay out of ethnic
politics
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶10. (SBU) Citlioglu predicted that Russia and China will
continue to block tougher UNSC sanctions on Iran in 2009,
even if the USG engages with Iran without preconditions but
Iran still stalls. He also urged that the USG press Israel
to stay in the background as P5 1 efforts with Iran evolve,
since "Israel can have a very negative impact" on US-Iran
engagement. Citlioglu said Iran's presidential elections
will not influence the regime's approach to talks with the
P5 1. "It doesn't matter who wins. Khamenei and the mullahs
will still make the decisions." He speculated that Khamenei
will decide to fully endorse Ahmadinejad, ensuring his
victory, because "a non-clerical president is less of a
threat to him." Citlioglu noted that the USG decision to
sanction the PJAK as a terrorist group under Executive Order
13224 will be seen positively by Iran, but he warned against
the U.S. destroying that goodwill by supporting other restive
ethnic movements in Iran, like the Azeris, citing local news
reports of US efforts to instigate Azeri unrest in northwest
Iran.
¶11. (SBU) Both Citlioglu and Yalcin claimed that if Iran
develops nuclear weapons capability Turkey would also move
quickly to do so, to maintain the balance of power. Egypt
and Saudi Arabia would also seek the capability, they
speculated, though Turkey would oppose that because it would
disrupt rather than solidify that balance. The only way to
get Iran to the negotiating table is through increased
pressure. The only way to secure Iran's agreement to stop
pursuing nuclear weapons is to change the regime's worldview
by convincing the regime that the US is not a threat to its
survival, and by offering cooperation in areas important to
the regime (and to Turkey), like counter-narcotics and
fighting Kurdish/PJAK terrorism.
Iran only hears what it wants to hear
--------------------------------
¶12. (SBU) EDAM Board member Can Buharali (a former Turkish
diplomat once stationed in Iran) offered from experience that
"Iran hears what it wants to hear" and rarely responds
constructively to criticism or threats. That is why Turkey
avoids criticizing Iran in public: doing so only loses
influence with Iran and makes Turkey seem like a USG proxy,
without moderating the regime. But when Turkey explains to
Iran privately that a nuclear weapons-capable Iran would be a
threat to Turkey's vital national interests, Iranian leaders
appear to listen. Turkey must strike a balance, however, by
also making clear its support for Iran's and all countries'
NPT Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear technology.
¶13. (SBU) Buharali doubted that USG engagement with Iran
before the June elections would be useful to either side.
But a goodwill gesture from the USG to the next Iranian
president shortly after his election (even if it is
Ahmadinejad) would be viewed positively by Khamenei and could
lead Iran back to the negotiating table. Once at the table,
Iran will expect the USG to formally recognize the regime's
legitimate status and legitimate regional interests. "All
Iranian leaders want that, from hard-liners to reformists."
The nuclear program, however, is not a bargaining chip, it is
"a national goal." Iran may be willing to agree on stringent
measures to give assurances it would not weaponize, but it
will never give up the enrichment capability that it has
worked so hard to achieve, he assessed. On the other hand,
Iran wants desperately to re-establish relations with the US
and secure a full lifting of sanctions, which have stunted
its hydrocarbon sector. Iran thinks it can "have it both
ways": keeping an enrichment capability while getting the US
to lift sanctions. Buharali warned that Iran "buys time and
stalls very well." Some hard-liners still want Iran to stall
until after it has clearly enriched enough uranium for a
future nuclear weapon, and then negotiate from a position of
greater strength. As the USG considers whether and when to
engage, Buharali urged that it continue to reach out to the
Iranian population -- "a key U.S. stakeholder" -- both in
Iran and abroad, and continue to support civil society
development in Iran, "but not behind the regime's back."
Instead, he suggested offering developmental and humanitarian
assistance openly, either through UN agencies or even
directly to and through the Iranian government itself.
Comment
------
¶14. (C) These academic and think-tank colleagues all follow
Iranian affairs closely, have lived in Iran or traveled
recently to Iran, and maintain contacts with Iranian
counterparts. We thus find their views on Iran to be
credible and well-informed, especially with regard to the
most commonly-recurring themes: Turkey and Iran seek a
stable balance of power with each other and almost always
pursue bilateral relations with that goal in mind; moderating
Iran's policies will require genuinely convincing the regime
that the USG does not seek its overthrow and indeed accepts
an influential role for Iran in the region; and Turkey
understands Iran better than the U.S. does and is prepared to
help us engage. It is also noteworthy where our expert
interlocutors disagreed, for example on the timing of
possible engagement, or what level of further international
pressure on the regime would help bring it to the table.
This simply reflects that even to a Turkish expert on Iran,
the inner workings, levers, and pressure points of the
Iranian regime remain largely a mystery. End comment.
WIENER