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Viewing cable 09FRANKFURT1583, COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09FRANKFURT1583 2009-06-16 07:29 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Frankfurt
VZCZCXRO9553
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1583/01 1670729
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 160729Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0855
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001583 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: COMMUNAL ELECTIONS IN SW GERMANY BRING INSIGHT INTO 
NATIONAL PARTY TRENDS 
 
REF: BERLIN 683 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Communal elections in three southwestern German 
states on June 7 generally mirrored the European election results 
(reftel), with voters drawn away from the larger CDU and SPD to the 
smaller parties -- the FDP, Greens, and the Left Party.  Bucking the 
SPD's national slide, , the "Beck Factor" helped the 
Rhineland-Palatinate (R-P) SPD marginally improve on their 2004 
results.  In Stuttgart, the Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Greens became 
the strongest party in a major city council for the first time in 
German history.  Saarland's Greens eked past the 5% hurdle and look 
poised to play a more decisive role in upcoming state and possibly 
national elections.  End Summary. 
 
Independents Dominate in B-W, Greens Surprise in Stuttgart 
---------------------------- ----------------------------- 
 
2.  Independent voter groups (Freie Waehlervereinigungen) remain the 
dominant political force in Baden-Wuerttemberg communities, 
receiving 37.9% (+2.4%).  Yet B-W's biggest surprise occurred in 
Stuttgart, where the Greens wrested control of the state capital 
from the CDU (25.3% to 24.3%), which had been in power there since 
1971.  The Greens turned the communal election into a protest vote 
against the highly controversial issue of "Stuttgart 21" - a 
multi-billion euro urban renewal project.  Leading Greens celebrated 
their win in Stuttgart as a "sensation" and admitted that they never 
expected to become the strongest party.  The German media reported 
June 11 that Greens Party co-Chairman Cem Oezdemir, who recently 
failed to get a promising position to enter the next German 
parliament, might now have a good chance to become a Bundestag 
member by winning a direct mandate through his Stuttgart 
constituency. 
 
R-P Communal Election: SPD Holds On 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  The communal elections in R-P basically reflected the national 
trend of the European Elections with the notable exception of a 
minor (but significant in comparison to other areas) increase for 
the R-P SPD, due to the intense popularity of R-P Minister President 
(and former SPD national chair) Kurt Beck (SPD).  Beck expressed 
relief that his party has performed far better at the municipal 
level than at the European elections level.  Nevertheless, he 
rejected any attempts to draw conclusions for the national election 
in September. 
 
The Race Tightens in Saarland, Greens Could Be Swing Player 
----------------------------- ----------------------------- 
 
4.  Saarland's political scene continued to heat up.  The CDU 
dropped 8.7% to 37%, further evidence of its increasingly tenuous 
hold on the number one spot. The SPD also dropped from 37.3 to 34.7 
%.  The SPD won 4 out of 5 mayoral elections, prompting SPD caucus 
chairperson Heiko Maas to claim that the upcoming August 30 state 
election race will be "neck and neck".  The Left Party maintained 
its position with 10.1, but key is that the Greens received 5.2% 
(+0.4%) in this election.  Combined with the party's Saarland EU 
election results (also placing them above 5%), there is some 
indication that the Greens could exceed the 5% threshold in the 
state elections to become a significant player in coalition 
discussions. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (SBU) The communal elections in Frankfurt's consular district 
generally mirror the European Parliamentary election results -- 
losses for big parties and gains for small parties - but the details 
reveal some important dynamics for the overall political scene. 
Clearly the efforts of the Grand Coalition to save Opel have not 
paid off for the CDU and SPD in this prime Opel territory.  In R-P, 
the popularity of M-P Beck may have prevented losses for his party 
locally, but failed to transcend state boundaries to help in the 
European election.  This suggests that local "star power" will be of 
limited use to the SPD in September.  With Saarland state elections 
in August, just a month before the national ones, the Greens (if 
they overcome the 5% hurdle) may be the swing vote to create or 
block the first red-red based coalition in western Germany.   SPD 
Caucus Chairman Heiko Maas may need to consider forgoing his 
ambition to become Saarland M-P to prevent the CDU from using a 
Saarland red-red coalition against the SPD at the national level. 
 
6. (SBU) Contacts from multiple sectors complain that the Grand 
Coalition has caused a watering- down of key ideological positions 
for both the CDU and the SPD, leading to an "exodus to the edges" 
evident in Frankfurt district communal and European election 
results.  To stem the outflow of voters, the ruling parties will 
need to sharpen their message.  We expect that in the coming months, 
 
FRANKFURT 00001583  002 OF 002 
 
 
politicians like B-W M-P Oettinger(CDU), who have relentlessly 
attacked this weakening of the party platform, will feel encouraged 
to continue their criticism.  For the SPD, a local contact confided 
that a period of time for the SPD as the national opposition party 
might be just what it needs to redefine its platform and reclaim the 
"left" from The Left Party.  End Comment. 
 
POWELL