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Viewing cable 09PARIS1047, PARIS CLUB - JULY 2009 MEETING
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09PARIS1047 | 2009-08-03 08:12 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Paris |
VZCZCXRO3634
RR RUEHBZ
DE RUEHFR #1047/01 2150812
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030812Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6895
INFO RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN 1506
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0369
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 7088
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 2313
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 7083
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 1767
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 7238
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3073
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 6468
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 1818
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0632
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 9202
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 1833
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 3217
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3058
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 2677
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 1152
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 0507
RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0326
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0410
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 1410
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA 7583
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS 0983
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 1913
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1654
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE 1103
RUEHPC/AMEMBASSY LOME 1371
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1783
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0576
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 1058
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 2287
RUEHCH/AMEMBASSY CHISINAU 0604
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 0350
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2053
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1783
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1167
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0240
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1900
RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0415
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0453
RUEHPL/AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1232
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1003
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 0175
RUEHBH/AMEMBASSY NASSAU 0253
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1754
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN 0432
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0433
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0268
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0860
RUEHUM/AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR 0111
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 16 PARIS 001047
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OMA
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSCA
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS - MPAREDES
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/WWILLER/JDOSTER
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS -- WFULLER
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - JULY 2009 MEETING
PARIS 00001047 001.2 OF 016
¶1. (SBU) Summary: During the July Paris Club meeting, creditors
agreed to voluntarily go beyond the terms of the Heavily Indebted
Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative to forgive 100 percent of their
claims pertaining to Haiti, which reached completion point under the
Initiative on June 30. The Club agreed to send a letter to Brazil
expressing disappointment over an imminent $700 million loan related
to sale of Embraer aircraft to Aerolineas Argentinas/Austral, and
its potential to undermine the Club's efforts to collect from
Argentina. The Argentine central bank has reportedly benefitted
from a $1.8 billion swap line from Brazil and a $10 billion swap
line from China.
¶2. (SBU) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) representative
reported that China had agreed to drop the sovereign guarantee
requirement for the mining project in the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC), leaving concessionality of the loan for one
infrastructure segment as the only remaining issue. The IMF could
seek financing assurances for a program under the IMF's Poverty
Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF) in September or earlier. DRC could
reach HIPC completion point with six months of PRGF performance.
The Central African Republic (CAR) will be invited to negotiate HIPC
completion point treatment in September. Paris Club creditors
showed no interest in Angolan parliamentarians' proposal to swap its
$400 million January 2010 payment for development, infrastructure,
or investment.
PARIS 00001047 002.2 OF 016
¶3. (SBU) The Club also discussed Bahrain, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Mali,
Seychelles, and Togo, as well as two methodological issues:
treatment of export credit agencies' guarantees that have not yet
been triggered, and outreach to non-Paris Club creditors. End
Summary.
------
Angola
------
¶4. (SBU) The Club again discussed the Angolan parliamentarians'
proposal to swap the GOA's scheduled January 2010 late interest
payment for projects in Angola. Despite discussions with a
parliamentary delegation, there remained confusion about whether the
swap would be for infrastructure and social projects, or for
economic investments that would yield a return. The delegation had
characterized the swap as a "win-win" proposition and had emphasized
that they could and would make the $400 million payment if creditors
did not agree to the proposed swap.
¶5. (SBU) Most creditors were not inclined to agree to the proposal;
they expect payment. Only Norway expressed openness to the proposal
but, because it was a very small creditor, would participate only if
others handled negotiations, management, and monitoring of the deal.
The Secretariat asked creditors to submit their official position
on the swap proposal and would then draft a response letter for
PARIS 00001047 003.2 OF 016
discussion in September.
¶6. (SBU) The U.S. delegation met privately with the Angolan
parliamentarians, who were accompanied by a representative of the
central bank and by a banker from Portugal. The Angolan delegation
explained its proposal. Not a party to the deal under which the
January payment is due, the U.S. told the Angolans that the involved
creditors would determine whether to support the proposal.
¶7. (SBU) The IMF reported that despite "commendable" progress in
recent years, Angola had been impacted by the falls in oil and
diamond prices, and by OPEC-driven production cuts. After several
years of double-digit growth, GDP was expected to fall 1.5 percent
in 2009, with corresponding deterioration in the country's financial
and fiscal positions. Reserves had fallen by one-third in the first
half of 2009, to $11.8 billion. Angola was tightening monetary and
fiscal policies to address the situation, with a May supplementary
budget cutting spending by 17 percent, based on a predicted $37/bbl
oil price. Still, this would leave a deficit of 8 percent of GDP,
by GOA estimates. Angola had made significant progress in reducing
its debt burden from 45 percent of GDP at end-2004 to 16 percent at
end-2008; it could rise again to 25 percent by end-2009. The
country was rated at "moderate" risk of debt distress. There was no
interest in a Fund program, although the GOA was receptive to
recommendations, sought closer dialogue with the Fund, and requested
additional technical assistance.
PARIS 00001047 004.2 OF 016
----------------
Argentina/Brazil
----------------
¶8. (SBU) As in June, the major subject for discussion was Brazil's
$700 million loan to state-owned Aerolineas Argentinas (and/or its
subsidiary, Austral) for the purchase of Embraer aircraft. The
Brazilian representative again failed to provide any meaningful
responses, but did say that the agreement had not yet been signed.
The terms and conditions were under discussion, and Embraer was to
sign the contract soon. The information will then be delivered at
the next meeting of the Participants of the Aircraft Sector
Understanding (ASU) at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD). The delegate claimed not to know whether the
loan involved GOB or GOA guarantees, or the general structure of the
financing, as this was a deal between Embraer and Aerolineas
Argentinas.
¶9. (SBU) When the Brazilian representative was not present, the U.S.
stated that Brazil should not be allowed to delay, and proposed that
the Club prepare a letter to the GOB to convey disappointment about
the loan, which could undermine the Club's efforts to resume normal
relations with Argentina. Other members agreed, and another
creditor suggested inclusion of Brazil's failure to conclude a
bilateral agreement with Iraq.
PARIS 00001047 005.2 OF 016
¶10. (SBU) The IMF reported that Argentina's bond prices had risen
after the GOA's loss of majorities in both houses in the June 28
election, apparently on hopes that the congress would restrain the
administration. End-May reserves remained robust, at $46 billion.
The Fund noted press reports that Brazil and China had extended swap
lines to Argentina of $1.8 billion and $10 billion, respectively.
There had been no movement in relations with the Fund (no date for
Article IV discussions), though the Bank reported on its new country
strategy and on two recent loans for safety nets, valued at $840
million and $450 million.
-------
Bahrain
-------
¶11. (SBU) The Netherlands reported arrears since late 2008. The
loans in question were to two separate ministries, one of which had
cleared its arrears in early July. Nevertheless, the total had
reached 6 million Euros. The Secretariat said Bahrain owed the Club
about $84 million, two thirds of which was owed to the USG; however,
Bahrain was current to the U.S. The Secretariat noted that after
creditors provided a status of payments, it would draft a letter to
the Bahraini authorities.
¶12. (SBU) The IMF reported that the macroeconomic situation was
PARIS 00001047 006.2 OF 016
"robust," reflecting GOB efforts to diversify the economy,
especially the financial sector. Banking assets had soared,
exceeding 1,000 percent of GDP at end-2008. Some banks had
experienced losses on assets in the West. There had been drops in
deposits and financing, but the central bank had responded
forcefully. In the Fund's view, the sector was weathering the
crisis well. The central bank had developed a crisis response
manual to monitor interbank activity, freeze new licenses, and
encourage mergers; but complementary actions were required.
¶13. (SBU) Real GDP had grown 8 percent in 2007 and 6 percent in
2008, but growth was expected to fall to 2.5 percent in 2009. The
current account and fiscal deficit had worsened, and reserves had
fallen from 7.5 months of coverage of non-oil imports to 5.5 months.
The IMF noted fiscal policy was neutral; spending increases could
be appropriate. Some capital expenditures had been delayed but
public-private partnerships were being explored to avoid increasing
public debt.
------------------------
Central African Republic
------------------------
¶14. (SBU) The CAR reached completion point at the end of June, after
Argentina had provided assurances that moved participation above the
required 80 percent threshold. The Club agreed to negotiate
PARIS 00001047 007.2 OF 016
completion point treatment in September. There would be a data call
later in July. A fifth review/Article IV IMF mission is scheduled
for the end of September.
----------------------------
Democratic Republic of Congo
----------------------------
¶15. (SBU) Discussion again focused on China's proposed mining and
infrastructure deal with the DRC, the only significant remaining
obstacle to a PRGF program and progress toward HIPC debt relief.
The IMF reported that China Railways had sent a letter to DRC
authorities, on behalf of the joint venture, agreeing that there was
no need for a sovereign guarantee for the mining portion of the
project, but arguing that it needed to keep the sovereign guarantee
on the remaining $3 billion infrastructure portion. The first
annual review of the project was rescheduled for July 10-16 in
Beijing, at which time the partners were expected to agree to remove
the guarantee on the mining portion, as well as drop the second
infrastructure phase valued at $3 billion.
¶16. (SBU) These moves would bring the package much closer to meeting
the IMF's concerns about debt sustainability, although
concessionality had not been addressed satisfactorily. A new Debt
Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was being prepared, along with a
report on the DRC's progress towards satisfying its completion point
PARIS 00001047 008.2 OF 016
triggers. Nevertheless, the IMF reported that "things could move
relatively fast," and that the Fund could request financing
assurances for the PRGF program in September, or sooner. The Bank
reported that if a PRGF program were approved, management would
propose lifting the ceiling on interim relief from 30 percent to 50
percent, as had been done for other countries. Completion of the
feasibility study for the mining project, repeatedly delayed since
late 2008, is now set for September. Several creditors sought
confirmation of all the elements, including concessionality, the
DSA, and information about litigating creditors, before addressing
financing assurances.
-----
Haiti
-----
¶17. (SBU) In swift and cordial discussions, the Club and Haiti's
delegation agreed on the terms of the country's completion point
treatment. Because of Haiti's relatively low debt burden for a HIPC
and a modest 14.2 percent common reduction factor, the Agreed Minute
provided for forgiveness of a total of $62.7 million, but creditors
all agreed to more generous terms for Haiti, voluntarily going
beyond the agreement to provide full forgiveness of all claims on
Haiti worth an additional $152 million. This commitment was
reflected in the Paris Club's press release, under the heading
"Paris Club creditors cancel 100 percent of Haiti's debt."
PARIS 00001047 009.2 OF 016
-------
Jamaica
-------
¶18. (SBU) The Fund and Bank provided a briefing on the deteriorating
situation in Jamaica, which faces challenging short- and long-term
prospects. Jamaica faces macroeconomic imbalances, chronic low
growth - with a 4 percent GDP decline expected in FY09-10 due to
falls in tourism, remittances and bauxite prices - and high public
debt levels. Between mid-September 2008 and February 2009, balance
of payments pressures had brought about a 22 percent depreciation,
while reserves had fallen by a third, to $1.6 billion, four months
of import cover.
¶19. (SBU) Despite the recession and falling inflation, authorities
had to tighten monetary policy considerably, raising the policy rate
to 21.5 percent. They had also been forced to tighten fiscal policy
in order to bolster confidence, with measures in the 2009-10 budget
worth 2 percent of GDP, including a freeze of civil service wages
and a fuel tax. The target was a deficit of 6.6 percent of GDP.
The current account deficit had narrowed to 14 percent of GDP, but
the country still faced a $600 million financing gap in FY 2009-10
and needed to reduce its debt overhang. Authorities have no room
for a counter-cyclical fiscal response and were interested in a
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Negotiations had begun during a June
PARIS 00001047 010.2 OF 016
Article IV mission and were continuing in Washington. Priorities
for reform included improving public expenditure management, tax
efficiency, and civil service reform.
¶20. (SBU) Jamaica's exposure to the Club was high, $481.5 million
according to the recent global data call, but the Fund and
authorities had not yet discussed whether the country would request
Paris Club treatment. Jamaica's external debt had reached 124
percent of GDP with interest payments equaling 14 percent of GDP.
The SBA's focus would be fiscal sustainability, and it was not clear
whether this required debt restructuring.
----------
Kazakhstan
----------
¶21. (SBU) Discussion again focused on creditors' exposure to failed
banks and the Club's proposed response. In June the Club had agreed
to send a letter to authorities, but creditors had disagreed on what
it should contain. The Secretariat's initial draft quoted the
assertion in the recent joint letter from Export Credit Agencies
(ECAs) that their claims should be excluded from restructuring and
suggested that treatment of ECA claims could be a problem in any
future Club restructuring. The U.S. delegation had privately told
the Secretariat that this language was troubling. The Secretariat
then circulated a new draft that expressed the Club's concern about
PARIS 00001047 011.2 OF 016
the situation and asked that the Club be kept informed about
developments. Creditors agreed to the revised text with slight
changes, though Germany and Italy voiced their preference for the
more assertive version. Belgium noted that more ECAs appeared to be
involved, perhaps as many as sixteen. The Club agreed to launch an
accelerated data call, which would include bank-by-bank data.
----
Mali
----
¶22. (SBU) The Netherlands reported that Mali, a post-completion
point HIPC, was in arrears. Arrears in March 2008 had been cleared,
but had begun to accumulate again in mid-2008, reaching 500,000
Euros. France had also reported arrears in March 2008, but Mali was
now current on payments. The IMF expressed concern regarding the
arrears in view of its non-toleration policy, and asked whether the
Netherlands considered the arrears to be technical; otherwise, a
waiver would have been required. The Netherlands agreed to deem
them technical arrears for now.
¶23. (SBU) The IMF reported that Mali had entered into a program in
2008, because of the crisis in food and fuel prices. The program
was designed to strengthen public finances and introduce structural
reforms, and its second review had been completed on July 6. Mali
had made progress - the tax revenues/GDP ratio had risen from 9
PARIS 00001047 012.2 OF 016
percent in 2005 to 14 percent in 2007, fiscal balances were close to
the zero target, and there had been progress on privatization.
Nevertheless, poverty rates remained high, and progress towards the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was slow. The impact of the
crisis had been limited, due to high gold prices, little bank
exposure, and unexpectedly robust remittances, all bolstered by
receding food and fuel prices. While the Bank opined that the
country was very vulnerable to shocks, it was at a "low risk" of
debt distress.
----------
Seychelles
----------
¶24. (SBU) The second review of Seychelles' program was completed on
June 30, and creditors agreed that the first tranche of Seychelles'
Evian Terms debt reduction could enter into force once the
Secretariat had confirmed that South Africa had received its share
of the $1 million goodwill payment. All Club creditors to the
Seychelles had received payments.
¶25. (SBU) The IMF reported that there had been good policy
implementation and that macroeconomic stabilization had reduced
risks, so the Board approved a switch to a semi-annual review
schedule. The next review would be based on end-September data and
accompanied by a request for a 3-year loan under an Extended Fund
PARIS 00001047 013.2 OF 016
Facility (EFF) program. Although GDP was expected to fall 11
percent in 2009, the Fund's view was that a virtuous cycle was in
place with a primary surplus well above program targets, inflation
having declined sharply, and the real exchange rate having
appreciated. Financing gaps remained for 2009 and 2010 however, due
to the global recession and effects of piracy. African Development
Bank (AfDB) and European Union (EU) support would fill some of the
gaps.
----
Togo
----
¶26. (SBU) The Club agreed to enter into force the second phase of
Togo's HIPC treatment, based on IMF completion of the second PRGF
program review in April. The PRGF program, approved in April 2008,
was augmented in September to respond to food and fuel prices and
flooding; Togo reached HIPC decision point in November.
¶27. (SBU) The IMF reported "disciplined" implementation of the
program despite multiple shocks. GDP was expected to grow 1.7
percent in 2009, with inflation falling below 3 percent. Exports
and remittances had fallen, however, offsetting increases in food
production and domestic investment. Revenue collections were on
track, and spending was "disciplined." Most structural reforms
were on or ahead of schedule, with only one minor delay (audit of
PARIS 00001047 014.2 OF 016
the state phosphate company) because of administrative capacity.
Progress on completion point triggers was also good, with completion
point possible during the second half of 2010. Nevertheless,
capacity was weak and presidential elections in the first quarter
posed risks.
------------------------------------
Methodological Issues:
Inclusion in Data Calls and
Agreements of Un-triggered Guarantees
-------------------------------------
¶28. (SBU) The Secretariat released a paper on ECA guarantees that
have not been triggered. The Club's survey on existing creditor
practices found a wide variation on whether creditors include such
credits in data calls, and if those credits are treated. The paper
noted some arguments for including the credits - this seemed to be
within the letter of Agreed Minutes, legal issues could probably be
mitigated, and since Club treatments were designed to restore
sustainability, all debts should be considered in order to ensure
comparable treatment. On the other hand, the paper noted that the
Agreed Minute definitions were not taken literally to apply to
private creditors, that some creditors (especially the U.S. and
Russia) would face legal obstacles in treating them, and that
treating them would impose additional costs on creditors.
PARIS 00001047 015.2 OF 016
¶29. (SBU) The paper suggested three options - (1) continuation of
the current ad hoc approach; (2) inclusion of the guarantees in all
data calls and bilaterals; and (3) exclusion of the claims from all
data calls and bilateral agreements. (A fourth possibility could be
inclusion in data calls, but not necessarily in bilateral
agreements.)
¶30. (SBU) There was a lengthy, although inconclusive, discussion of
the issue, including several recent precedents in which the Club
agreed to exclude such debts in order to avoid causing economic
disruption. This included a tanker mortgage in the recent
Seychelles agreement, and port loans to Grenada and Djibouti. The
Secretariat suggested further discussion, perhaps by a working group
on the margins of the September meeting.
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Outreach
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¶31. (SBU) The Secretariat updated creditors on outreach efforts,
reporting in particular Israel's interest in joining the Club. (At
the June outreach meeting with the private sector and other
creditors, an Israeli MOF official had conveyed this interest to the
U.S. delegation.) Club members were generally amenable to the
approach, and the Club will proceed according to its outreach policy
- first, requesting detailed data from Israel on its loan portfolio,
PARIS 00001047 016.2 OF 016
and then inviting Israel to observe meetings more extensively. The
Secretariat requested that creditors check views in capitals to
determine their positions on a) closer association with the Club and
b) full membership. Israel may soon be contacting the Secretariat
more officially.
¶32. (SBU) Among other outreach countries, Malaysia had reacted
positively to the Secretariat's approaches. (Malaysia had asked to
participate in the negotiations with Seychelles, but had been unable
to make appropriate arrangements in time.) China had requested
information, but had not followed up. The UAE had indicated that it
was willing to share information and "in principle" to join
negotiations, though it had not accepted the Club's invitation to
the June meeting. India had provided "little feedback."
¶33. (U) For additional information on any of the countries or issues
mentioned above, please contact EEB/IFD/OMA David Freudenwald at
freudenwalddj@state.gov or Nicholle Manz at manznm@state.gov.
PEKELA