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courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09TEGUCIGALPA617, TFH01: WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09TEGUCIGALPA617 | 2009-07-17 23:03 | 2011-06-01 02:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tegucigalpa |
Appears in these articles: http://www.wikileaks.elfaro.net/es/201105/notas/4258/ |
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHTG #0617/01 1982303
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 172303Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0165
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS IMMEDIATE 0725
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUMIAAA/USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000617
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR HO
SUBJECT: TFH01: WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 594
¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 591 AND PREVIOUS
¶C. TEGUCIGALPA 587
¶D. TEGUCIGALPA 580
¶E. TEGUCIGALPA 578
¶F. TEGUCIGALPA 574
Classified By: amb. Hugo Llorens, e.o. 12958 1.4(b) and (d)
¶1. (C) Summary: As the Zelaya and Micheletti teams prepare to
engage for a second round of talks in Costa Rica July 18 on
restoring the constitutional order in Honduras, the fate of
any deal that may emerge from the talks will most likely be
determined by a relatively small number of opinion-makers and
power brokers in Honduras who are not part of either Zelaya's
administration or Micheletti's de facto regime. This message
profiles some of these figures and their potential roles in
making or breaking a political agreement, using the color
scheme laid out in ref B and previous. End Summary.
¶2. (C) Carlos Flores: President of Honduras 1998-2002 and
elder statesman of the Liberal Party, Honduras's largest
political party. Flores also publishes one of the country's
major daily newspapers, "La Tribuna," which has been critical
of Zelaya's presidency. Zelaya views him as a political
rival and obstacle to his plans to transform the Liberal
Party. Little happens in Honduran politics without Flores
knowing about it. Still, he claims he had no advance
knowledge of the June 28 coup, even though the decree and
analysis that coup defenders cite as proof of Zelaya's intent
to dissolve Congress and convene a constituent assembly
following his constitutional reform opinion poll appeared the
morning of the coup in "La Tribuna." Since the coup, Flores
has quietly sought to promote dialogue among key players to
resolve the political crisis. Since at it's heart the crisis
is a feud within the Liberal Party, he is extremely well
placed. His daughter, Lizzy Flores, is Vice President of
Congress and rumored to have been uncomfortable with the way
Zelaya's removal was rushed through Congress June 28.
Hue: pastel pink
Stature: high
Influence: high
Role: crucial
¶3. (C) Ricardo Maduro: Zelaya's immediate predecessor as
President of Honduras (2002-2006) and elder statesman of the
National Party. Maduro is well respected among the White
Team and within the Honduran and international business
community. Maduro has sworn to the Ambassador that he had no
foreknowledge of the June 28 coup. However, most of his
party strongly supported Zelaya's removal, more so than the
ruling Liberal Party, which is split over the issue. But
Maduro is a man of considerable intellect and strategic
vision who can be persuaded that a political compromise that
restores the consitutional order is in Honduras's, and
therefore the National Party's, best interest.
Hue: eggshell
Stature: high
Influence: high
Role: potentially very helpful
¶4. (C) Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez: The Archbishop of
Tegucigalpa has long been one of the most respected and
beloved figures in Honduras, or at least he was until he
publicly endorsed the coup and the Micheletti regime on live
television July 4, causing him to be vilified by the Red
Team. He has called for peace and reconciliation but also
urged Zelaya to stay out of Honduras. In recent days, he has
backed away somewhat from his earlier endorsement of the
coup, we think under instructions from the Vatican. He told
the Ambassador the evening of July 16 that he would support
an agreement brokered that would allow President Zelaya to
return to Honduras. His early support for the coup
nonetheless undermined his credibility as a potential
mediator. Still, his blessing for any agreement could sway
significant numbers from both the Red and White camps.
Hue: almond
Stature: high (but falling among reds)
Influence: high
Role: Potentially important as a ratifier
¶5. (C) Elvin Santos: The Liberal Party presidential nominee,
Santos has a strong personal political interest in finding a
resolution to the current crisis (ref A). He enjoyed a
10-point lead in polls over National Party candidate Pepe
Lobo shortly before the coup. The first post-coup poll
showed him trailing Lobo by five points: 41-36 percent. He
has made a series of televised messages appealing for peace,
reconciliation and dialogue while being careful to neither
condemn nor endorse the coup. As Zelaya's former vice
president who resigned to run to succeed him while distancing
himself from Zelaya politically, Santos's interests are best
served by moving quickly past the current crisis and shifting
the Honduran political discussion away from Zelaya and
Micheletti and onto the campaign to succeed them.
Hue: powder puff
Stature: medium
Influence: moderate
Role: post-electoral hope
¶6. (C) Pepe Lobo: The National Party presidential nominee,
Lobo has benefitted in the short term from the conflict
within the Liberal Party. But his long term interests, as
possibly the next president, require restoring legitimacy and
removing Honduras from international pariah status. Like
Santos, he has made televised messages calling for peace,
reconciliation and dialogue. But he has been more supportive
of the coup and the Micheletti regime.
Hue: Lilac
Stature: medium
Influence: moderate
Role: potential spoiler or redeemer
¶7. (C) Arturo Corrales: Although part of Micheletti's
negotiating team in San Jose (ref F), Corrales has not taken
a position within the new regime and has thus preserved his
ability to act as the consumate bipartisan dealmaker. A
former presidential candidate for the small, centrist
Christian Democrat Party, Corrales is known as the "oracle"
of Honduran politics for his shrewd instincts and predictive
power. He is also considered by some to be one of the three
most important power-brokers in Honduran politics, along with
ormer presidents Carlos Flores and Rafael Callejas
Hue: ivory-blush
Stature: high
Influence: igh
Role: dealmaker
¶8. (C) Vilma Morales: Another member of Micheletti's
negotiating team for the first round of talks in San Jose,
Morales was Chief Justice of the Honduran Supreme Court
2002-2009. A National Party stalwart, she regularly feuded
with Zelaya from the bench and has been one of the June 28
coup's most outspoken legal defenders. Although respected
within Honduran legal circles, her legal judgment on the
current crisis is clouded by her partisanship.
Hue: snowblind
Stature: high
Influence: low-medium
Role: not likely helpful
¶9. (C) Luis Rubi: As Attorney General, he appears to have
been directly involved in the decision to remove Zelaya, has
defended the legality of the action since and has used the
legal apparatus under his control to stifle dissent and
intimidate/persecute members of Zelaya's team. The Attorney
General is appointed through a consultative process to a
five-year term and may not be removed at the pleasure of the
President. His continued tenure may therefore need to be
part of the negotiation, with Whites desiring that he stay in
place as a check on Zelaya and Zelaya demanding his
resignation.
Hue: sunbleached
Stature: medium-high
Influence: high
Role: might have to go
¶10. (C) Jorge Rivera Aviles: The Chief Justice of the Supreme
Court, he told the Ambassador that he was not involved in the
coup and was unwilling to swear-in Micheletti on June 28.
Others say he was a key coup plotter. Either way, he has
publicly defended the legality of the coup, but we understand
some other justices on the court consider it was illegal (ref
E). He is constitutionally third in line of succession to the
Presidency.
Hue: birch
Stature: medium-high
Influence: high
Role: Could be key
¶11. (C) Edmundo Orellana: Former Foreign Minister then
Defense Minister for Zelaya, resigned just before the coup
when Zelaya fired defense chief Vasquez Velasquez for
refusing to carry out the constitutional reform opinion poll
in defiance of a court order. Also a Liberal Party member of
Congress. Orellana is a lawyer and diplomat of center-left
political views. He has been working behind the scenes with
remnants of the depose Zelaya cabinet to seek a negotiated,
conditional return of Zelaya to power.
Hue: passionate pink
Stature: medium
Influence: moderate
Role: potentially useful go-between
¶12. (C) Jose Azcona: Son of former President of the same name
(1986-1990) Azcona is considered one of the rising generation
of Liberal Party leaders and a possible future presidential
candidate. He holds a second-tier leadership position in the
Congress and is close to Micheletti. Nonetheless, he has
expressed to us his disagreement with the coup and desire to
help broker a deal on Zelaya's conditional return. But he
has kept those views private so as not to burn his bridge
with Micheletti.
Hue: fuschia
Stature: medium
Influence: medium
Role: behind-the-scenes voice of reason
¶13. (C) Jaime Rosenthal: One of Honduras's most prominent
media and industrial tycoons, Rosenthal has been a long-time
power broker and financial backer of the Liberal Party. His
son Yani was Minister of the Presidency during the first
half of Zelaya's term. His newspaper, "Tiempo," has been the
most sympathetic to Zelaya of the four major Honduran dailies
and the most critical of the coup since June 28. His
television stations have also taken a moderate line since the
coup and been more willing to air anti-coup viewpoints.
Hue: peach
Stature: medium-high
Influence: high
Role: Could be key to selling an agreement
¶14. (C) Jorge Canahuati: A rival/competitor of Rosenthal's,
Canahuati's "El Heraldo" and "La Prensa" have been the most
harshly anti-Zelaya and pro-coup. His publications frame the
opinions of the National Party mainstream.
Hue: lily white
Stature: medium-high
Influence: high
Role: possible obstruction
¶15. (C) The "Turcos": Refers to the small industrial and
financial elite, predominantly of Arab/Palestinian origin,
who dominate the Honduran economy and have tremendous weight,
usually exercised behind the scenes, on its politics.
Prominent memberws include Miguel Facusse, his son-in-law
Fredy Nasser, the Kafie Brothers and Camilo Atala. It is
highly likely that at least some of them knew about the coup.
These are the so-called "Power Groups" railed against by
Zelaya and his leftist supporters.
Hue: alabaster
Stature: medium
Influence: high
Role: will need to be coopted into any deal
¶16. (C) Doris Gutierrez: A member of Congress from the
leftist Democratic Unification (UD) Party, Gutierrez is a
leading voice of the democratic left, with the stress on
"democratic." She has attacked corruption in the Zelaya
administration but also the coup that removed him.
Hue: magenta
Stature: low-medium
Influence: low-medium
Role: could bring some reds around to a deal
¶17. (C) Rafael Alegria: A militant advocate for small farmers
(although disdained by many truly representative peasant
organizations), Alegria is generally considered to be a
Chavez proxy, if not actually on Chavez's payroll. He was
constantly seen in Zelaya's presence in the final days before
the coup, when Zelaya was threatening to push ahead with a
constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court
order.
Hue: blood red
Stature: low
Influence: low
Role: obstruction
¶18. (C) Cesar Ham: Presidential candidate for the leftist UD
party, he was closely associated with Zelaya's final push for
a constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court
order. He and some others in his party are now openly
calling for violent insurrection to bring Zelaya back.
Hue: crimson
Stature: low
Influence: low-medium
Role: potential wrecker
LLORENS