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Viewing cable 07CARACAS930, VENEZUELA'S DEBT PICTURE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07CARACAS930 | 2007-05-09 20:42 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Caracas |
VZCZCXRO0481
RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG
RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHCV #0930/01 1292042
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 092042Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8668
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 000930
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR KLINGENSMITH AND NGRANT
COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/WH/MCAMERON
NSC FOR DTOMLINSON
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S DEBT PICTURE
REF: A. CARACAS 718
¶B. CARACAS 741
¶C. CARACAS 861
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (SBU) Venezuela's debt profile is changing, with the BRV
financing more domestically and incurring additional debt and
liabilities through PDVSA and the Central Bank. External
debt as a percentage of GDP remains low (16 percent of GDP)
by historical and regional terms; however, "total debt"
(external debt, internal debt, Central Bank liabilities, and
PDVSA debt) has doubled during the past eight years.
Individuals are also becoming increasingly indebted and bank
risk profiles are growing -- an unsustainable situation (over
the longer term) made possible by the trapped liquidity from
windfall oil revenues and government spending. The potential
withdrawal from the World Bank and IMF further complicates
matters and has increased Venezuela's risk profile by 49
basis points since April 30, thereby making its debt
potentially more expensive.
-----------
DEBT LEVELS
-----------
¶2. (SBU) Since 1998, the BRV has steadily reduced its foreign
debt as a percentage of GDP, to the point that it is now
below 16 percent of GDP (calculated at the official exchange
rate of Bs. 2150/dollar). At the same time, it has been
issuing more debt locally, both through bolivar-denominated
bonds and certificates of deposit. These instruments have
the benefit to the government of being based on the currency
it prints (it can print more and pay off the debt with the
extra bolivars). The debt table below shows Venezuela's
indebtedness since 1998 and over the past five years.
1998 / 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Price of Oil* 10.60 22.20 25.76 32.88 46.03 56.45
GDP Growth .3 -8.9 -7.7 18.3 10.3 10.3
Foreign 23,314 22,517 24,786 27,471 31,202 25,836
Pct. GDP 25.5 24.2 29.7 24.4 21.8 15.4
Domestic 2,384 11,553 15,029 15,525 15,682 16,851
Pct. GDP 4.9 12.4 18.0 13.8 10.9 9.5
Central Bank 2,863 279 4,720 3,679 14,099 16,162
PDVSA 3,900 6,426 6,265 2,716 2,704 2,476
Total BRV Debt 33,461 40,775 50,800 49,391 63,687 61,325
(The numbers above, with the exception of the price of oil
and percentages, are in millions of dollars at the official
exchange rate)
*Average price for the Venezuelan oil basket in US dollars
SOURCES: Venezuelan Central Bank, Ministry of Finance,
Santander Investment, Embassy Calculations
¶3. (SBU) Venezuela's foreign debt has grown 11 percent (in
dollar terms) since 1999, reaching almost USD 26 billion by
the end of 2006, a marked decrease from 2005. Much of this
decrease was the result of Venezuela's prepayment of Brady
bonds, valued at almost USD 4.4 billion, during the year. At
the same time, the stock of domestic debt has also grown,
from Bs. 2.4 trillion in 1999 (USD 3.7 billion at the then
exchange rate) to Bs. 36.2 trillion today (USD 16.8 billion).
When adjusted for inflation and devaluation, this represents
a 264 percent increase.
¶4. (SBU) Central Bank (BCV) debt/liabilities, while not
normally included in calculations of domestic debt, is
CARACAS 00000930 002 OF 004
nonetheless alarming. As of the end of April, the BCV had
Bs. 34 trillion in outstanding notes (USD 15.8 billion), 22
times more than it did in 1999 and 58 times more than in
¶2002. These CDs and structured notes are issued by the BCV
to soak up excess liquidity, a relatively recent problem in
Venezuela associated with the currency control regime in
place since February 2003 and large increases in government
expenditures. PDVSA's debt load had actually decreased
through the end of 2006, although so far in 2007 PDVSA has
issued USD 12.5 billion in debt (reftel B).
¶5. (SBU) If one includes foreign and domestic sovereign debt
as well as BCV notes and PDVSA's debt, it paints a grimmer
picture for the BRV. Under this methodology, the debt stock
almost doubled since 1998 in dollar terms, during a time in
which oil prices rose exponentially (from an average of USD
10.60 for the Venezuelan oil basket to USD 56.45) and
government revenues similarly surged.
-------------------------
"CHAO" IMF AND WORLD BANK
-------------------------
¶6. (SBU) Minister for People's Power of Finance (MPPF)
Rodrigo Cabezas and President Chavez spent several days
recently crowing the final payment of Venezuela's World Bank
debt. During his April 15 "Alo Presidente" television
program, Chavez celebrated that, "sooner rather than later
the world will not need them (IMF and World Bank) because
they have been the arms of imperialism to dominate the world,
to indebt the world, and then enslave it through the perverse
mechanism of eternal debt; we are liberated from these chains
and these are the steps of the Revolution."
¶7. (SBU) On April 30, Chavez announced that Venezuela would
withdraw from the World Bank and IMF (reftel C). This
action, if taken, would probably increase Venezuela's debt
burden by raising its country risk profile and t@cAQve U.S. Treasuries) has risen
by 49 basis points since Chavez' announcement. Over 70
percent of Venezuela's external debt goes into technical
default if the country leaves the IMF. While most creditors
would probably be willing to accept the technical default as
long as Venezuela continues to pay on time, the uncertainty
and potential profit from arbitrage between trading and book
value of the debt could lead to an expensive rescheduling.
¶8. (SBU) Venezuela still actively engages with the Andean
Development Corporation (CAF) and InterAmerican Development
Bank (BID), with the CAF recently announcing an increase of
USD 600 million in its project portfolio to fund a
hydroelectric plant. Venezuela currently has about USD 1.8
billion in outstanding loans with the CAF and approximately
USD 1.1 billion with the BID.
-------------------------------
OIL PRICES GO UP, DEBT GOES UP?
-------------------------------
¶9. (SBU) Venezuela has run a budgetary deficit in seven of
the past eight years, though has been issuing more debt than
it needs to cover these deficits. Local economists and
university professors Miguel Santos and Ricardo Villasmil
(PROTECT THROUGHOUT) suspect that this is due to Chavez'
preoccupation with maintaining significant levels of
contingency, or rainy day funds. (Note: A significant portion
of BRV spending is off-budget, and there exists little
transparency in how the BRV utilizes off-budget revenues as
well. End Note.) Post estimates that the BRV has as much as
USD 34 billion non-Central Bank reserves (reftel A). This
money serves as an insurance policy for Chavez against a drop
in oil prices, potential sanctions, or civil unrest similar
to the coup and strikes in 2002-2003.
¶10. (SBU) For Santos and Villasmil, the confluence of the
BRV's political and economic policies is notable in the debt
service profile. The majority of Venezuela's foreign debt
comes due after 2017, and hardly any is due in 2009 or 2012
(election years in Venezuela). This appears to be
intentional in order to provide the BRV with the leeway to
increase spending during those years to shore up support, as
it did in 2006 when government spending (not including
CARACAS 00000930 003 OF 004
off-budget spending) grew 41 percent (in dollar terms).
Venezuela's Debt Amortization Sechedule (Foreign Debt)
Year Amount
2007 1,431.81
2008 2,165.56
2009 785.28
2010 2,196.41
2011 2,276.31
2012 580.52
2013 2,037.00
2014 1,812.89
2015 1,494.53
2016 1,628.37
2017-2045 10,805.07
(millions of USD)
SOURCE: Ministry of Finance as of the end of January 2007.
-------------------
VENEZUELA INDEBTED?
-------------------
¶11. (SBU) Former head of the Central Bank's Economic Research
Division, Jose Guerra recently authored a book entitled,
"Venezuela Endeudeada," or Venezuela Indebted. The primary
argument of Guerra and many others is that, in a time of
historically high oil revenues, it makes no economic sense to
be increasing the country's debt burden. While arguments can
be made for issuing debt at rates of interest below the rate
of return for an inv!wejzVQQ2i=NQK8y1i_old the proceeds in the
bank, or to spend the money on handout programs that do
little to boost future growth. (Comment: One could argue,
however, that it makes good political sense, given the
direction we believe Chavez wants to take the country. End
Comment.) Much of the USD 7.5 billion recently issued by
PDVSA is expected to go toward current obligations and BRV
social spending (reftel B).
¶12. (SBU) Local sovereign debt is issued in bolivars, but at
a set exchange rate to the dollar. Thus, should the BRV
choose to devalue, its debt burden would remain the same in
dollar terms. The preference for local issuances probably
stems from the BRV's ability to issue local notes at
preferential interest rates (below inflation) as currency
controls and excess liquidity result in a seller's market for
instruments. For a government little preoccupied with the
rule of law or private property rights, local debtors would
also be easier to deal with in the event of default or
restructuring. Issuing local bonds also allows the
government to soak up excess liquidity, one of the primary
factors driving Venezuela's double digit inflation and a
major preoccupation of Chavez and Minister for People's Power
of Planning and Development Giordanni.
¶13. (SBU) The Venezuelan government is not the only
institution in Venezuela addicted to debt. Financial
institutions have heavily promoted consumer loans and credit
cards in recent years, offering interest rates below the rate
of inflation and many incentives. The banking system's loan
portfolio has grown by 332 percent in dollar terms since
2002, due mostly to the surge in liquidity. Credit cards
loans, for example, have grown almost 260 percent. Banks in
Venezuela make soi of the highest profits in the hemisphere,
with a number of analysts estimating an average above 30
percent (septel). One major bank offers up to six months
advance on one's salary and just about any bank will offer a
car loan or mortgage with little investigation. While
default rates remain low, a cycle of indebtedness is
emerging, with borrowers moving from one bank to another,
paying off the first credit card with the latter. When
liquidity diminishes, this Ponzi scheme will come falling
down.
¶14. (SBU) The increasing indebtedness of state institutions,
such as the Central Bank and PDVSA is a cause of concern,
tempered, however, by the high oil revenues and the ability
of the BCV to increase the money supply if its resources
CARACAS 00000930 004 OF 004
become crimped (however, this would carry an inflationary
cost). As a percentage of GDP, Venezuela's foreign debt
profile remains very manageable, and some international money
managers (to justify their purchases of Venezuelan paper),
note that Venezuela has never defaulted. The BRV's foreign
debt, as a percentage of GDP compares favorably with other
countries in the region, including Argentina (28 percent),
Colombia (17), Ecuador (24), and Peru (23). The drop in debt
as a percentage of GDP for Venezuela is due mostly to its
increase in GDP in recent years, as the total amount in
dollar terms has risen slightly since 1999.
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶15. (SBU) While the run up in debt during years of windfall
oil revenues does not make much economic sense, for Chavez'
revolutionary ambitions it may make perfect sense and be
worth the gamble. Recreating a new political, economic and
cultural order doesn't come cheap. It is worth remembering
that Venezuelan GDP growth is highly dependent on the price
of oil and the debt picture only remains manageable so long
as oil prices remain high and production doesn't crash. In
2003, when GDP fell 8 percent, Venezuela's foreign debt
burden as a percentage of GDP shot up from 37 percent to 48
percent.
WHITAKER