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Viewing cable 09NAIROBI1657, SOMALIA - Ruling Party Undermines Somaliland Elections
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09NAIROBI1657 | 2009-07-30 15:25 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Nairobi |
VZCZCXRO0387
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #1657/01 2111525
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301525Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0572
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001657
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Ruling Party Undermines Somaliland Elections
REF: Nairobi 1271
Nairobi 1539
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Somaliland's on-again, off-again presidential
election preparations, that were to have resulted in registered
voters casting their ballots on September 27, were dealt a serious
setback on July 28 - 30 when incumbent President Riyale and a
compliant National Electoral Commission (NEC) decided to abandon the
international community-funded voter registration lists and instead
hold elections the "traditional Somali way." Riyale's action
sparked howls of protest by Somaliland's two opposition parties and
a public statement of concern by the international community. The
protests triggered the expulsion of the technician for an NGO
charged with compiling the lists. Efforts by the Somalia Unit and
the British Ambassador in Addis Ababa to contact Riyale in the wake
of the expulsion have been to date rebuffed by the President.
Somaliland's largest cable television network, Horn Cable
Television, was ordered to suspend broadcasting as the scandal
gathered steam. End summary.
---------------------------------
Stakeholders Meet Most Conditions
---------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Somaliland's electoral process continues to proceed in
fits and starts. Over the last several weeks, the political
parties, NEC, and the government managed to meet almost of all the
stipulated conditions for getting the troubled presidential
elections (reftels) back on track. Accomplishments:
-- an agreement on the parameters to be used in compiling the final
voter registration list was signed on June 23;
-- a code of conduct was signed on July 11;
-- a Government contribution (approximately $1.25 million) for the
elections was received on July 13;
-- harmonization of the electoral laws was approved by parliament on
July 18;
-- the Government's plan to ensure security during the campaign and
voting period was presented on July 19.
¶3. (SBU) The only condition not met was the reconstitution of the
NEC, though all parties, including President Riyale, had agreed to
replace three or four NEC members. (The international donor
community had insisted that the NEC had to be reconstituted under
new leadership if it was to discharge its responsibilities. On July
27, the Somalia Unit made this point to both President Riyale and
with Kulmiye Chairman Ahmed Silanyo.
------------------
Voter Registration
List Complete
------------------
¶4. (SBU) On July 27, an elections expert from US-based Creative
Associates (contracted by Interpeace with USAID funds) provided an
independent analysis of the voter registration process, the
provisional voter registration list, and of the steps necessary to
provide a final voter registration list to the NEC and the political
parties. Creative Associates reported that the provisional list
contained approximately 1.22 million names (Note: the initial list
contained 1.36 million unique registrants. The agreed parameters
were then run on the database, removing 130,000 from the list. The
number of disqualified registrants was about half the amount
expected. End note.)
¶5. (SBU) After the preliminary figures were presented to the
representatives of the three parties, two of the parties (UDUB and
UCID) expressed disappointment at what they said was the very high
number of registered voters. (Note: Most experts believe that a
large number of voters would favor Kulmiye. End note.) The party
representatives discussed possible ways to tweak the parameters in
order to produce a more "accurate" (and smaller) list. The elections
expert noted that, even if somewhat flawed, the voter registration
process would result in a more transparent and technically "better"
election than past contests, which had been held without benefit of
a voter registration process. Among the options considered for
refining the list were:
NAIROBI 00001657 002 OF 003
-- hold the election with the current list and protect against fraud
with measures such as finger-inking, a massive voter education
campaign, and a stronger NEC;
-- tweak one or more of the parameters to produce a more realistic
list. Redaction of the list would delay its delivery to the NEC and
political parties, but even a delay of approximately two weeks would
not affect the election date.
--------------------------------
Ruling Party Advocates Elections
Without Voter Registration List
-------------------------------
¶6. (SBU) On July 27, the opposition parties Kulmiye and UCID
publicly announced that they would accept the list in its present
form. In a surprise move, the NEC Chairman Jama Mahamud Umar (of
the UDUB ruling party) announced in an interview on the BBC Somali
Service that the NEC would throw out the list entirely and conduct
the elections in the "traditional" way. Umar's announcement was
triggered by a signed letter from four of the seven NEC members who
had advocated "traditional" elections. Several of our contacts told
us that President Riyale had met with the NEC Chair and Vice-Chair
on July 26 to advocate elections without the voter registration
list. We also were told that President Riyale personally pressed
each of the seven NEC members to sign the letter supporting this
position.
¶7. (SBU) On July 28 and again on July 30, we spoke with Kulmiye
Chairman Silanyo who expressed shock at this announcement. He told
us that this position was definitely not the will all the parties,
noting Kulmiye and UCID's joint announcement of July 27 that they
would accept the list in its present form. Silanyo suggested that
the international community make a public statement condemning the
actions of the NEC and the government. He also advised that if the
situation continued to deteriorate, Secretary Clinton should
publicly admonish the Somaliland government. Several civil society
representatives told us that the decision to abandon the lists had
caused outrage among the general public. Mohamed Nur, the official
Somaliland representative in Nairobi, told us that the move had been
engineered by President Riyale and Minister of Finance Hussein Ali
Dualeh in order to stay in power. Nur said, "This administration is
desperate to win and as the incumbent, Riyale will fight against a
transparent system. Everyone knows that if one million Somalilanders
voted, (Riyale's party) would definitely lose the election."
---------------------
Joint Donor Statement
---------------------
¶8. (U) The Somaliland Democratization Program Steering Committee,
comprising the U.S., UK, EC, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and
Switzerland (the U.S. and UK are co-chairs), released the following
statement on July 29:
Begin text: "The donors congratulate the Somaliland people on the
production of a voter list on July 27, 2009, which is now ready and
available. This represents the culmination of enormous effort by
the stakeholders and an important opportunity for the Somaliland
people.
"The donors recognise that the production of the voter list, as
positively evaluated by an independent U.S. company, provides a
credible basis for the holding of free and fair elections. The
production of the voter list is mandated by the relevant Somaliland
electoral laws and in line with the consensual agreements among the
political parties.
"The donors regret the announcement by the chair of the National
Electoral Commission on the BBC Somali Service on July 28, 2009, of
an intention to hold the presidential elections without the voter
list which, if carried forward, would represent a significant loss
for the Somaliland people - as well as for Somaliland's
democratization process.
The donors urge all Somaliland stakeholders to draw on the
long-standing Somaliland tradition of consensual decision-making and
capacity for leadership in order to reconcile any differences and
prepare for the holding of credible, free and fair presidential
elections." End text.
--------------------------------------------- ---
NAIROBI 00001657 003 OF 003
International Advisor Declared Persona Non Grata
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶9. (SBU) On July 29, Interpeace technicians provided copies of the
provisional voter registration list to all of the parties. They also
presented a printed version of the list, in order to dispel rumors
that no list existed. The NEC chair objected strongly to the
release of the list, although that had been agreed in advance. On
July 30, Somaliland police surrounded the building in which
Interpeace's lead technician was located. He was declared "persona
non grata" by the Somaliland administration and expelled the same
day. At the airport, security officials confiscated his laptop,
CDs, notes, and other documents.
¶10. (SBU) With the technician expelled, the server that contained
the program and the password-protected data remains at NEC
headquarters and all of the hardware procured for the voter
registration process (including 1,000 laptop computers) at the NEC
warehouse. Copies of the voter registration list and back-up copies
of the data on the server have already been taken to safe places
outside of Somaliland.
--------------
Media Blackout
--------------
¶11. (SBU) The two opposition parties hastily scheduled a press
conference on the morning of July 30, to bring attention to the
deportation of Interpeace's staff. In what has become a common
pattern of media harassment (ref B), the Somaliland authorities on
July 29 ordered Horn Cable Television to suspend broadcasting.
(Note: This cable station is independently-owned and operated and
has the largest coverage in Somaliland.) We spoke with the CEO of
HCTV who confirmed that police entered the station to order its
closure, and arrested a journalist and the chief editor. (The
editor was released on July 30.) Our contacts told us that while
the public opposes the NEC announcement, without major media outlets
operating, outreach and mobilization is limited.
-------
Comment
-------
¶12. (SBU) The situation in Somaliland remains fluid. We have
contacted the major opposition parties, which have both expressed
outrage at the NEC's announcement. We have tried to reach President
Riyale, but his staff has rebuffed our efforts. The UK Special
Envoy in Addis Ababa had been scheduled to speak to Riyale on July
¶30. His call was cancelled. Most of our contacts agree that Riyale
himself is behind the NEC decision to throw out the list, and with
it the almost 10 million dollar investment by the international
community in the voter registration process. The fact that the
majority of NEC members jettisoned an electoral process that they
were supposed to have been advancing suggests that, as constituted,
the NEC is hostile to free, fair and transparent elections; as
apparently is the incumbent administration, which conspired with the
NEC to sabotage the election preparations.
RANNEBERGER