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Viewing cable 06BRASILIA790, BRAZIL AT A FISCAL INFLECTION POINT?
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BRASILIA790 | 2006-04-24 19:00 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO3062
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #0790/01 1141900
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241900Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5193
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4650
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6810
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 1930
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3954
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5449
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5371
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6191
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1961
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3211
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3711
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1789
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4522
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2955
RUCPDO/USDOC WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 000790
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NSC FOR CRONIN
TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE, FPARODI
STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/SHUPKA
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL AT A FISCAL INFLECTION POINT?
REF: A) BRASILIA 665 B) BRASILIA 608
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Lula administration heretofore has compiled an
impressive record of fiscal rectitude, routinely posting primary
budget surpluses well beyond its formal 4.25 percent of GDP target.
This performance has allowed the GoB to reduce its net-debt-to-GDP
ratio (from 57.2% in 2003 to about 51.6% at end 2005). While these
results have been commendable, the GoB achieved them primarily
through higher tax revenues, which grew due to tax reforms in 2003
and income tax growth based on the strong profitability of certain
economic sectors in 2004/2005. Though Lula reduced real
expenditures in his first year in office, revenue growth since then
has meant that expenditure growth has been much less constrained in
subsequent years. Revenue growth may now have reached an inflection
point, with March 2006 revenues falling ever so slightly (0.04%) in
real terms from March 2005 levels. Newly appointed Finance Minister
Guido Mantega publicly reiterated on April 19 that the Gob would
sequester whatever expenditures it must in order to meet its 4.25%
of GDP primary surplus target. However, if stagnant revenue trends
continue, this will exacerbate the political battles surrounding
fiscal policy in Brazil, and will likely become one of the key
points of debate in this presidential election year. Fiscal and tax
reform will thus become an urgent issue for the new administration
in January 2007. End Summary.
Revenue Growth Down
-------------------
¶2. (U) GoB federal tax revenues in the first quarter of 2006 grew
much more slowly (1.7% in real terms) than in the two previous
years, while March revenues were down 0.04% from March 2005 levels.
The GoB's obligatory expenditures (e.g. government payroll, social
security, earmarked health expenditures), however, are expected to
continue to grow apace. Revenues administered by Receita Federal
(Brazil's IRS equivalent - this measure of revenues excludes payroll
taxes that are paid directly to the Social Security system) likely
will fall from 17.2% of GDP in 2005 to 16.8% of GDP this year, while
obligatory expenditures climb from 15.5% of GDP to 17.1% (obligatory
expenditures include payroll, earmarked health expenditures, social
assistance, government employee pensions and social security
expenses). Overall, it accounts for about 90% of central government
expenditures). Broader data for the central government as a whole
(i.e. including the social security system but excluding states and
municipalities) shows that in the first two months of 2006, revenues
as a percent of GDP were essentially unchanged (26.28% of GDP in
2006, vs. 26.25% of GDP in 2005) while expenditures grew from 17.84%
of GDP to 19.05% of GDP in the same period.
Federal Fiscal Snapshot
Percent of GDP
Revenues 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 /1
-------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Administered
Revenues (tax) 16.3% 15.6% 16.2% 17.2% 16.8%
+ Social
Security Income 5.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6%
+ Other Income 2.5% 2.4% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6%
- Transfers to
States/Cities 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 4.5% 4.1%
--------------
Equals Net Central
Govt. Revenues 20.2% 19.3% 20.4% 20.1% 20.6%
BRASILIA 00000790 002 OF 004
Expenditures
------------
Total
Expenditures 18.0% 17.2% 17.8% 19.1% 18.4%
Obligatory
Expenditures 15.6% 15.8% 15.4% 15.5% 17.1%
- of which Social
Security 6.4% 6.9% 7.1% 7.58% 7.93%
- of which Fed
Payroll and
Benefits 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.85% 4.92%
---------------
Federal Gov.
Primary Surplus/2 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.3%
/1 - Predicted 2006 values
/2 - Does not include state, municipal and parastatal company
contribution to the public sector primary surplus
-Sources: Planning Ministry, Finance Ministry, Raul Velloso
¶3. (SBU) A well-known private sector budget consultant, Raul
Velloso, noted to Econoff in an April 13 conversation that the drop
in revenue growth and increasing obligatory expenditures mean the
GoB's discretionary expenditures (currently about 10% of total
expenditures, including investments, operating expenses such as fuel
for vehicles, communications, etc.) would be dramatically squeezed
this year. He thought that the GoB would have a hard time meeting
the 4.25% of GDP primary surplus target. Indeed, GoB data shows the
central government primary surplus (excluding states and
parastatals, which contribute towards the overall public sector
primary surplus) dropped from 3.59% of GDP in the first two months
of 2005 to 2.33% of GDP in 2006. This is partly to be expected,
according to Velloso, since in an election year the GoB typically
concentrates expenditures prior to the election-law-mandated June 30
cut-off on new investments. The problem, Velloso argued, was that
falling revenue growth meant revenues would not cover the continued
growth in obligatory expenditures (fed, among other factors, by
Lula's minimum wage increase, which impacts both Central Government
and social security accounts). Velloso feared that the GoB would
not be able to make up the difference in the second half of the
year.
¶4. (SBU) Velloso - who it must be noted has strong ties to the
opposition PSDB - explained that previous years' strong revenue
growth was due to a series of one-off events. These included the
revamping of the PIS and COFINS taxes in 2003 to make them more
VAT-like. Accordingly, the effect of this reform, which increased
the effective rates of these taxes, diminished after 2004. 2005 saw
strong profitability in the commodity-based sectors of the Brazilian
economy, which significantly boosted income tax revenues paid by
firms such as mining giant CVRD. These effects were unlikely to be
repeated, Velloso argued. Moreover, in the second half of 2005 the
GoB implemented legislation granting targeted tax breaks for capital
investments, the effects of which were now becoming perceptible.
For example, from March 2005 to March 2006 revenues generated by the
IPI, a federal VAT on manufactured products, fell 7.65 percent.
Mantega: "Anyone Betting Against Us Will Lose Money"
--------------------------------------------- -------
BRASILIA 00000790 003 OF 004
¶5. (U) Newly appointed Finance Minister Guido Mantega has used
recent public appearances to reiterate forcefully that the GoB will
fulfill its 4.25% of GDP primary surplus target. Testifying along
with Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo at the April 18 presentation
of the 2007 Budget Directives Law (i.e., the LDO, a multi-year
budget framework document) to Congress, Mantega insisted the GoB
would meet the target this year. The LDO, moreover, maintains the
4.25% primary surplus target unchanged for 2007, 2008 and 2009. In
an April 19 interview with daily Estado de Sao Paulo, Mantega blamed
the lower primary surplus for the first months of 2006 not on
reduced revenue growth, but rather on the election year-related need
to spend in the first half of the year, as well as unusually high
carry-over spending from the end of 2005. Mantega pledged the GoB
would sequester whatever expenditures necessary from the
just-approved 2006 budget to meet the 4.25% of GDP target. He
dismissed the idea of the GoB attempting to over-perform the target,
however, as it had repeatedly done under his predecessor, Antonio
Palocci.
¶6. (U) Background Note: Budget fulfillment is not mandatory in
Brazil. Indeed, in an acrimonious annual exercise, the
administration is required to walk back whatever unrealistic
revenue, GDP growth, interest rate or exchange rate assumptions that
the Congress inserts in the budget law and sequester corresponding
expenditures in order to ensure the primary surplus target is
fulfilled. With the April 18 approval of the 2006 budget, the GoB
within the next weeks should issue a decree identifying budgeted
expenditures that must be sequestered. In prior years, public
investment spending has accounted for the great majority of spending
targeted for sequestration. Sequestered expenditures can be
liberated later if revenues exceed the administration's
expectations. End Note.
¶7. (SBU) Separately, Mantega and Bernardo highlighted an LDO
provision that calls for current expenditures to be cut by 0.1% of
GDP per year over the next three years (down from the budgeted 2006
level of 17.71% of GDP). The GoB hopes to achieve this through a
requirement, which would take effect immediately upon the LDO's
approval, that all recurring spending commitments (such as new
hiring) must receive prior authorization from both the finance and
planning ministries. Hiring discipline has been a problem for the
Lula administration. March 2006 data showed that the Lula
administration had created a total of 37,543 new federal jobs, 2,268
of which are to be filled through presidential appointment. This in
part reflects Lula's reversal of policy of the previous two
governments to outsource jobs wherever possible and reduce the
public payroll via attrition. A little less than a quarter of the
new federal jobs were created to staff new regulatory agencies.
Market Views
------------
¶8. (SBU) Most analysts believe the GoB will meet the 4.25% of GDP
target. The chief economists of several Brazilian and foreign banks
told visiting Treasury A/S Clay Lowery on April 4 that they expect
the GoB to do so. Separately, Banco Itau Executive Director (and
former Central Bank director) Sergio Werlang told the press that
while he believes the GoB will meet the target for the calendar
year, it is likely that the rolling twelve-month primary surplus
will dip below 4.25% of GDP at some point this year. Markets, he
said, will take that as a bad sign, and it would perhaps slow
Brazil's march towards an investment grade credit rating. Gustavo
Loyola, who recently left his job as a Central Bank director for the
private sector, chastised market participants for fixating on the
primary surplus, which he argued should not have become an end in
itself, but rather was simply an anchor for policies aimed at
reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Not enough attention was being
BRASILIA 00000790 004 OF 004
paid, he said, to reducing the nominal deficit or to the quality of
expenditure.
¶9. (SBU) Loyola's point on the quality of expenditure is an
oft-repeated one. The rigid structure of the GoB budget, with
constitutionally mandated transfers to states and municipalities,
along with earmarked expenditures on items such as health and a
large social security deficit (about 2% of GDP in 2005) financed out
of general revenues, mean that investments and operating
expenditures must bear the brunt of fiscal adjustment. The GoB
anticipates, for example, that federal discretionary expenditures
including investments will fall from 3.29% of GDP in 2005 to 2.82%
in 2006. In its first years, the Lula administration advanced
measures that could make up for the shortfall in public investment
spending and ameliorate the public infrastructure deficit, notably
the Public Private Partnerships (PPP) legislation which was passed
in December 2004. Despite the fanfare that greeted its passage,
implementation has been slow and the GoB has yet to put out for
tender any PPP projects. The private sector is increasingly
concerned about the infrastructure gap, predicting that Brazil may
well face energy shortages in the medium term (2008/2009) due, in
part, to the GoB's problematic overhaul of the energy sector
regulatory framework in 2004/2005.
¶10. (SBU) Comment: The falling growth in revenues, if it proves a
more durable trend, stands to exacerbate the always lively and
sometimes acrimonious fiscal policy debate. As several contacts
have observed to us, the first step to cutting through Brazil's
budgetary Gordian knot is to bring current expenditures under
control, which has been problematic for the Lula administration.
The 2007 LDO contains some useful measures aimed at doing so, but
with the Lula administration continuing to beat off corruption
scandals even as it tries to prepare for the October 2006 elections,
there is little hope that it will make hard decisions on longer-term
expenditure constraint. Instead, it will likely just muddle through
the remainder of the year, trying to placate both the markets and
its political constituencies. The GoB has both the tools and the
political will to meet the primary surplus target (as we expect it
ultimately will), but the fiscal dynamics involved mean it will
occur at further cost to the quality of public expenditure. Fiscal
and tax reform, therefore, will need to be at the top of new
administration's agenda come January 2007.
LINEHAN