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Viewing cable 07MUNICH21, BAVARIAN MINISTER-PRESIDENT STOIBER TO STEP-DOWN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MUNICH21 2007-01-19 13:04 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Munich
VZCZCXRO2738
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0021 0191304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191304Z JAN 07
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3724
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS MUNICH 000021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  BAVARIAN MINISTER-PRESIDENT STOIBER TO STEP-DOWN 
 
REF: MUNICH 15 
 
1.  Bavarian Minister-President Edmund Stoiber announced January 18 
he will resign his posts as Minister-President and Christian Social 
Union (CSU) Party Chairman by September 30, 2007.  Bavarian State 
Parliament (Landtag) President Alois Glueck confirmed to the Consul 
General shortly after Stoiber's declaration that Bavarian Interior 
Minister Guenther Beckstein will assume the office of 
Minister-President and Bavarian Economic Minister Erwin Huber will 
most likely be selected as CSU Party Chairman. 
 
2.  While the choice of the popular Beckstein as Minister-President 
appears uncontested, Huber faces competition for the CSU leadership 
position from German Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer, who has 
also expressed interest in the job.  Beckstein and Huber reportedly 
agreed that a messy fight over Stoiber's successor should be 
avoided, and thus arrived at this division of labor with Stoiber's 
blessing.  Glueck, who played a key intermediary role in working out 
this succession plan, told the CG that Stoiber had only on January 
18 agreed to step aside, despite days of turmoil and speculation 
within the CSU over his future.  Glueck said that contrary to media 
reports and speculation by party insiders, he never actually 
envisaged changing his plans to retire in 2008 and seek the 
Minister-President position for himself. 
 
3.  Recent polls showed the CSU potentially falling short of its 50 
percent absolute majority threshold, and that over 70 percent of 
Bavarians wanted Stoiber to step down.  Stoiber's slow but steady 
loss of popularity began soon after his success in the 2003 Landtag 
elections when his rigid reform agenda alienated party friends and 
loyal CSU supporters.  His decline accelerated with his eleventh 
hour decision not to join Angela Merkel's grand coalition government 
in November 2005.  The so-called "Pauli Affair" and Stoiber's 
ambitious declaration of intent to remain in power through 2013 
(reftel) proved a bridge too far for Bavarians and the CSU. 
 
4.  There will be internal CSU meetings on January 19 and the 
following week to work out a timetable for a smooth transition of 
power.  We expect Beckstein to be elected Minister-President in 
October 2007 once the Landtag convenes following its summer break. 
A party convention which had been planned for November 30, 2007 will 
be advanced to September to decide on a future party leader. 
 
5.  COMMENT:  Given Stoiber's cool relationship with Merkel, and his 
at best lukewarm support of the grand coalition's agenda 
(obstructionist at worst), we view Stoiber's departure as a net 
positive for Merkel.  We expect she would have a constructive 
relationship with both Beckstein and Huber: Beckstein was Merkel's 
favorite for the position of Federal Interior Minister, and she had 
offered Huber the position of head of the Federal Chancellery. 
Ironically, both men remained in Bavaria with hopes of replacing 
Stoiber, expecting him to remain in Berlin as a member of Merkel's 
government following the 2005 elections. 
 
6.  This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
7.  Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET 
website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . 
 
NELSON