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Viewing cable 03ROME5001, EU/TURKEY CONFERENCE TAKES SOBER BUT HOPEFUL VIEW

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
03ROME5001 2003-11-04 13:42 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Rome
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

041342Z Nov 03
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 005001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TU IT PREL EUN
SUBJECT: EU/TURKEY CONFERENCE TAKES SOBER BUT HOPEFUL VIEW 
    OF ACCESSION PROCESS 
 
 
 1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  ON OCTOBER 20-21 POLOFF ATTENDED AN 
EU-TURKEY CONFERENCE SPONSORED BY THE EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY 
INSTITUTE AND ASPEN INSTITUTE-ROME THAT DISCUSSED THE 
CHALLENGES TURKEY FACES IN ATTAINING EU MEMBERSHIP. WHILE 
NONE OF THE PARTICIPANTS APPEARED TO DOUBT TURKEY WOULD 
EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EU MEMBER, THE OVERALL CONSENSUS WAS A 
SOBER AND REALISTIC EXPECTATION THAT ACCESSION WOULD TAKE 
YEARS AND REQUIRE MUCH MORE HARD WORK THAN ANKARA ALREADY HAS 
ACCOMPLISHED. END SUMMARY. 
 
ITALY PRAISES BUT URGES FURTHER REFORMS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) ITALIAN FINANCE MINISTRY UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE 
GIANLUIGI MAGRI, FILLING IN FOR  FINANCE MINISTER GIULIO 
TREMONTI, STRONGLY ENDORSED TURKEY'S CANDIDACY AND PRAISED 
TURKISH PRIME MINISTER RECEP ERDOGAN'S STRONG LEADERSHIP AND 
DEMONSTRATION OF TURKEY'S MULTILATERAL COOPERATION ON IRAQ. 
MAGRI SAID ANKARA'S CONTINUED COMMITMENT TO STRUCTURAL 
REFORMS REMAINS KEY TO ITS EU ACCESSION.   AS EXPECTED, 
TURKISH OFFICIALS PUT A POSITIVE SPIN ON ANKARA'S 
ACHIEVEMENTS BUT ALSO ACKNOWLEDGED THAT TURKEY HAD A LONG WAY 
TO GO. TURKISH SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE SECRETARIAT GENERAL 
FOR EU AFFAIRS MURAT SUNGAR URGED THE EU TO SET A DEFINITE 
TIMETABLE FOR ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS, HOPEFULLY BY THE END OF 
2004, SO THAT TURKEY WOULD HAVE A DEADLINE AND A ROAD MAP. 
(THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL HAS PROMISED TO ASSESS AT THE END OF 
2004 WHETHER TURKEY HAS COMPLIED WITH COPENHAGEN CRITERIA AND 
IS READY TO BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS.) TURKISH DEPUTY PRIME 
    MINISTER AND MINISTER OF THE ECONOMY ALI BABACAN ADDED THAT 
THE EXACT DATE OF ACCESSION WAS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS THE 
REFORM PROCESS ITSELF.  BABACAN ASSERTED THAT THE ACCESSION 
PROCESS IS AN "ANCHOR" THAT HELPED GUARANTEE TURKEY WOULD NOT 
BACKTRACK ON REFORMS. 
 
TURKS PUT IN A PLUG FOR ERDOGAN GOVERNMENT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3. (SBU) BOTH SUNGAR AND BABACAN GAVE ERDOGAN'S GOVERNMENT 
HIGH MARKS FOR JUMPSTARTING REFORMS SINCE ITS ELECTION IN 
2002, BUT HE ALLOWED THAT SUSTAINING THIS PROGRESS DEPENDED 
ON THE CONTINUED SUPPORT OF CURRENT AND FUTURE GOVERNMENTS 
AND OF POPULAR SUPPORT (AROUND 70 PERCENT, SUNGAR CLAIMED). 
BABACAN SAID THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY WAS TO BE INCLUSIVE AND 
REACH CONSENSUS, IN SPITE OF ITS TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY IN 
PARLIAMENT THAT TECHNICALLY WOULD ALLOW IT TO IGNORE THE 
OPPOSITION.  HE STRESSED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT 
INTERFERE IN RELIGIOUS ISSUES OR IMPOSE ISLAM ON TURKISH 
CITIZENS.  TURKISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AND DEPUTY CHAIRMAN 
OF THE RULING JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY (AK) REHA DENEMEC 
ECHOED BABACAN IN INSISTING THAT ERDOGAN "HAS NO INTENTION" 
OF WAGING A "TYRANNY OF THE MAJORITY" AND WAS WORKING HARD TO 
KEEP THE PUBLIC TRUST. 
 
VIEWS OF U.S./TURKEY RELATIONSHIP 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) SUNGAR ASSURED POLOFF THAT TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION 
WOULD NOT AFFECT TURKEY'S TIES TO THE U.S. AND RELATIONS 
WOULD REMAIN STRONG.  OTHER PANELISTS USED THE CONFERENCE AS 
    AN OCCASION TO CRITICIZE THAT RELATIONSHIP.  A PARTICIPANT 
WITH THE ISTANBUL POLICY CENTER ATTACKED THE U.S. FOR, HE 
CLAIMED, HOLDING TURKEY UP AS A PARAGON OF AN ISLAMIC 
DEMOCRACY, WHEN, IN HIS OPINION, IT WAS HARDLY A WORTHY MODEL 
FOR THE REGION.  ANOTHER ACADEMIC WITH THE SAME INSTITUTION 
BLAMED U.S. POLICY FOR INDIRECTLY IMPEDING TURKEY'S 
FULFILLMENT OF ESDP BECAUSE OF ANKARA'S INTEREST IN 
MAINTAINING STRONG TRANSATLANTIC TIES. 
 
ECONOMIC PROGNOSIS:  GUARDED OPTIMISM 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU)   MAGRI PRAISED TURKEY'S PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING 
THE IMF PROGRAM, REDUCING INFLATION (STILL AT ALMOST 30 
PERCENT), AND LOWERING INTEREST RATES BUT ALSO CITED 
UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS:  A HEAVY DEBT, AN OVERVALUED CURRENCY, 
AND A HIGH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT. HE NOTED THAT TURKEY'S 
PER CAPITA INCOME IS APPROXIMATELY 20 PERCENT OF THE CURRENT 
EU AVERAGE.  THE PANEL ON ECONOMICS POINTED OUT ANKARA'S NEED 
TO PRIVATIZE ENERGY, TRANSPORTATION, AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS 
SECTORS, RESTRUCTURE BANKS, AND ENFORCE TAXATION ON THE 
"INFORMAL" ECONOMY, WHICH CONSTITUTES ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE 
WORK FORCE, ACCORDING TO ONE PAPER.  THE PARTICIPANTS AGREED 
THAT TURKEY IS A LONG WAY FROM MEETING MAASTRICHT CRITERIA. 
 
ROME 00005001  002 OF 002 
 
 
6. (SBU)  MAGRI POINTED OUT THAT TURKEY'S POPULATION ROUGHLY 
EQUALED THAT OF THE TEN ACCEDING COUNTRIES AND, IF 
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS CONTINUED, TURKEY WOULD HAVE A LARGER 
POPULATION THAN ANY EU MEMBER STATE BY THE END OF THIS 
DECADE.  ONE PANELIST PREDICTED THAT TURKEY'S ACCESSION WOULD 
SHIFT THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE EU FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND 
TO THE MEDITERRANEAN AND WOULD OPEN THE WAY FOR OTHER 
MEDITERRANEAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES TO JOIN.  ANOTHER 
ECHOED THIS SENTIMENT IN SAYING THAT, WITH TURKEY'S ENTRY 
INTO THE EU, THE EU WOULD BECOME A PART OF THE MIDDLE EAST 
AND BRING GREATER STABILITY TO THAT REGION. 
 
CULTURAL FEARS IN THE BACKGROUND 
-------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU)  FEW CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS SPOKE OPENLY ABOUT 
EUROPEANS' DISQUIET OVER THE PROSPECT OF 70 MILLION MUSLIMS 
JOINING THE EU, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST TWO EXPRESSED PRIVATELY 
THEIR FEARS THAT THE CULTURAL DIFFERENCES WERE TOO GREAT AND 
MUSED WHETHER TURKISH CIVIL SOCIETY WOULD BE ABLE TO MEET EU 
NORMS.  IN ANSWER TO A QUESTION ON THIS SUBJECT, MAGRI 
STRESSED THAT EUROPEANS MUST OVERCOME ETHNIC PREJUDICE; HE 
SAID EXPANSION WOULD NOT BE EASY, BUT THAT EUROPEANS "HAVE NO 
ALTERNATIVES." 
SEMBLER 
 

 
NNNN 
 2003ROME05001 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED