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Viewing cable 09ISTANBUL81, KOCAELI ELECTIONS SHAPING UP AS TWO PARTY RACE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ISTANBUL81 | 2009-02-26 14:51 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Istanbul |
VZCZCXRO3489
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHIT #0081/01 0571451
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261451Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8798
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000081
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OSCE PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: KOCAELI ELECTIONS SHAPING UP AS TWO PARTY RACE
REF: A. ANKARA 118
¶B. ANKARA 125
¶1. Summary. A hard-fought and close race for the Mayorship
of Kocaeli Greater Municipality, the largest city in Kocaeli
Province, is shaping up between the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) and main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP). In the last municipal elections,
Ibrahim Karaosmanoglu, the current AKP mayor of this key
industrial city, defeated his CHP opponent by a margin of
more than two to one. CHP is determined to reverse that
result in the March election, and has recruited as its
candidate Sefa Sirmen, who served as Kocaeli's mayor for the
three terms preceding Karaosmanoglu. With recession settling
in and corruption allegations dogging AKP, the race is
expected to be tight. End summary.
--------------------------------------
A Grinding Recession Ahead for Kocaeli
--------------------------------------
¶2. Kocaeli Province, located directly east of Istanbul, is
home to approximately 1,300,000 people, and is the richest
province in Turkey. Kocaeli's wealth comes primarily from
manufacturing, which is responsible for some 73 percent of
its GDP. (Services make up most of the remainder.)
According to Kocaeli Governor GQkhan SQzer, in 2007 annual
exports (mostly to Europe) from Kocaeli equaled some 13
billion USD, and imports to Kocaeli equaled 24 billion.
Chief among the sectors located in the province is the
automotive industry (Ref. A), which accounts for 20 percent
of Turkey's total exports. Ford, Hyundai, Honda and Isuzu,
as well as a number of auto parts and tire manufacturers,
have plants in the city; currently, some 119 local companies
have foreign investors. (On the wall of the simple diner
where we had lunch during a recent visit hung four clocks,
showing the current time in Kocaeli, London, New York and
Tokyo.)
¶3. The AKP leadership has proclaimed that Turkey will be
able to weather the global economic crisis better than most
countries, because it is relatively insulated from the global
economy. This is not true for Kocaeli, whose economy is
vitally dependent upon exports. According to Governor SQzer,
since the crisis began in June, there has been a 25-30
percent decrease in industrial output and a concomitant
increase in unemployment. Thus, while six months ago an easy
AKP win was the conventional wisdom, the mayorship must now
be considered in play.
---------------------------
No Worries for AKP's Nominee
---------------------------
¶4. Kocaeli Mayor Ibrahim Karaosmanoglu, although
acknowledging the problems the local economy faces, was
resolutely upbeat about winning reelection. According to
Karaosmanoglu, Turkey is one of the countries in Europe least
affected by the crisis. Nevertheless, while claiming most
sectors have not been affected as much as the auto industry,
he acknowledged businesses are concerned, and people are
avoiding risks and are cautious in their investments.
Karaosmanoglu claimed there has not been much decrease in the
retail sector, except for big-ticket items that need credit.
¶5. When asked about CHP's claim that it can contest the
Kocaeli mayoral election, Karaosmanoglu said it reminds him
of the Turkish saying, "Hope is the bread of the poor." He
thinks it would be good if the opposition was stronger, as
this would make AKP more active and alert. AKP does polling
in Kocaeli every six months, and so far people seem happy
with their local government, with support hovering around
60-70 percent. The economy may have a "small effect," he
said, but in local elections voters distinguish between the
central and local governments. He predicted that AKP will do
better in local elections throughout the country than it did
in 2007 -- garnering as much as 50 percent of the overall
vote. Karaosmanoglu said he will rely upon AKP's usual
get-out-the-vote strategy, claiming AKP grass roots workers
will contact 100 percent of eligible voters.
----------------------------
CHP Nominee Plans a Comeback
----------------------------
ISTANBUL 00000081 002 OF 003
¶6. The CHP candidate is provincial Party Chair and former
three-time mayor Sefa Sirmen. Sirmen did not seek
re-election in 2004, having won a seat in Parliament in 2002.
However, he surrendered that seat in 2007 to run again for
mayor, explaining that being an opposition party member in
Parliament "is not much fun." Sirmen intends to run by
comparing his record of achievements against those made by
AKP. He says that AKP made major mistakes in planning and
prioritizing projects, as a result of which much money has
been misspent. He claims that while AKP has spent 5 billion
dollars in five years without completing any significant
projects, CHP spent but one billion dollars over 15 years and
accomplished much.
¶7. According to Sirmen, Kocaeli's biggest need is for a mass
transit system. He does not, however, plan to run an
issues-based campaign, claiming that in local mayoral
elections people focus on a candidate's leadership qualities
and track record, rather than on the party's platform (Ref
B). Sirmen plans to seek contributions from the public (a
tactic that is almost unknown in Turkey) and to adopt Obama's
campaign slogan and fund-raising approach, to get "everyone"
to contribute to his campaign -- "even just one lira" -- so
that they can feel part of his campaign.
¶8. In his three prior campaigns, Sirmen received an average
of 15 percent more support that did his party's municipal
council candidate list, which he says shows he is more
popular than his party. Thus, Sirmen does not view his
membership in CHP as a handicap; "I will win despite my
party," he asserted. (Comment: In the 2004 elections, in
which Sirmen did not compete, the current mayor bested the
AKP council candidates by 7 points, perhaps indicating that
Sirmen's record is not unique.) When asked why CHP was not
more popular, Sirmen first pointed to a huge poster of party
chair Deniz Baykal, then noted that it is "obvious that
people don't see Baykal and (Nationalist Action Party (MHP)
chair Devlet) Bahceli as real alternatives."
---------------------------------------------
Democratic Party Planning A (Lesser) Comeback
---------------------------------------------
¶9. The Democratic Party's candidate for mayor is businessman
Tugcu Tezer. We met with him, DP's Kocaeli party president
Ercument Sahin, and a number of DP party officials at its
somewhat run-down party headquarters. In recent years DP has
not been a force in Kocaeli (nor nationally) because,
according to Sahin, the party has "lost its way."
Nevertheless, local party officials feel that better days are
ahead. They point to DP's long history of involvement in
Turkish politics (the party was formed in 1946); the three
successive national elections it won in the 1980s under the
leadership of Suleyman Demirel; and claim that it is the
"natural home" for center-right voters, both religious and
secular. They believe that many DP supporters who turned to
AKP have been disappointed by AKP's performance, and expect
(like most observers) that the local elections will be a
referendum on AKP's nationwide performance -- which they
claim has been "a big failure" for two years. They
acknowledge that CHP is the main op
position party, but believe CHP has been ineffective and its
leader Deniz Baykal unconvincing.
¶10. Tezer said that his platform will focus on "honesty,
credibility and transparency," and that it will include
planks for improving the local educational system, providing
support for the disabled (of which there are many in Kocaeli,
he said, because of its heavy industry), and developing a
monorail system. Yet, the DP officials recognize that they
have no chance of winning the local mayorship. (In the 2004
elections DP received 15 votes.) Rather, DP believes the
local elections are a means to a greater end -- its return to
the national political stage. Its strategy is to do well
enough in the local elections to force general elections.
According to DP's (to us, wildly optimistic) calculations,
AKP's support in the local elections will drop to about 25
percent, compelling the party to call elections, in which DP
hopes to get 10 percent of the vote, thus crossing the
electoral threshold and earning a position as a coalition
partner.
--------------------------------
Felicity Party Keeping the Faith
--------------------------------
ISTANBUL 00000081 003 OF 003
¶11. The Felicity Party ("Saadet" in Turkish) is the most
openly religious of the major political parties in Turkey.
It has the same Virtue Party roots as AKP, but, said local
party officials, considers itself to be the true keeper of
the faith, which AKP supposedly has abandoned in order to be
"all things to all people." The party officials claimed
Saadet will be one of the strongest parties. They claimed
that in the last three elections, Saadet did better in
Kocaeli than anywhere else in Turkey -- receiving almost 7
percent of the vote in the province and over 10 percent of
the vote in the greater municipality (over twice its national
results in the 2004 election). They attributed these results
to good party organization which they, like AKP, learned from
their Virtue Party antecedents.
-------
Comment
-------
¶12. The results of local elections will in most cases hinge
on the personalities and track records of the candidates. In
close cases, voters' views of AKP's national performance may
be the tie-breaking factor. In Kocaeli, where the AKP and
CHP candidates are both successful politicians well-known to
local voters, the results may well boil down to the
electorate's perception of how well AKP has ruled the country
these past five years. An AKP win here despite the grinding
recession would confirm the AKP philosophy that in politics
organization is paramount.
WIENER