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Viewing cable 06MANAGUA863, THE GLOVES ARE OFF -- MONTEALEGRE TO RUN ON OWN
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06MANAGUA863 | 2006-04-19 22:19 | 2011-07-27 20:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua |
VZCZCXYZ0020
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHMU #0863/01 1092219
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 192219Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6025
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0626
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000863
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL EAID KCOR PHUM
SUBJECT: THE GLOVES ARE OFF -- MONTEALEGRE TO RUN ON OWN
REF: MANAGUA 0854
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Now that it is clear that the Liberal
Constitutional Party (PLC) will neither participate in
multi-party primaries nor sideline Arnoldo Aleman (reftel),
Eduardo Montealegre and his National Liberal
Alliance-Conservative Party (ALN-PC) are determined to run on
their own. In Ambassador's April 18 meeting with Montealegre
and his senior leadership, and in comments to the media
following the event, the Ambassador noted that the ALN-PC is
the only party that fully supports multi-party primaries and
reiterated that the U.S. cannot maintain positive relations
with a PLC under Aleman's control. Montealegre dispelled PLC
assertions that he has designated himself as his alliance's
candidate, noting that over 150,000 affiliates and alliance
party members have formally endorsed him. While he has
developed political machinery and performs well in the polls,
Montealegre will need a concerted, generously financed
campaign to effectively convey his message to Nicaraguans and
turn his popular support into votes on Election Day. END
SUMMARY.
EDUARDO GOES IT ALONE
- - - - - - - - - --
¶2. (C) Ambassador and Emboffs met on April 18 with ALN-PC
presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre and his senior
leadership as part of Embassy's effort to encourage
multi-party primaries. Among Montealegre's 22 supporters
were Mario Rappaciolli and Alejandro Bolanos (PC); Salvador
Talavera (Partido Resistencia Nicaraguense, or PRN); Eliseo
Nunez (Movimiento Salvacion Liberal, or MSL); Roberto Urroz
(Movimiento Democratico Nicaraguense, or MDN); Indalecio
Rodriguez and Oscar Sobalvarro, otherwise known as Comandante
Ruben (PLI); Jose Esteban Gonzalez (Partido Social Cristiano,
or PSC); and Assembly Deputies Maria Eugenia Sequeira,
Yamileth Bonilla.
¶3. (C) Appreciative of the Ambassador's visit and our offer
to support multi-party primaries, Montealegre welcomed the
Ambassador to his new, freshly painted headquarters.
Montealegre repeated his willingness to compete against Rizo
if Aleman were to step aside, noting that an alliance with
the PLC under Aleman's control is untenable, as it would
damage the ALN-PC and Nicaragua. At this juncture, a
four-way race is inevitable and the best option to win the
November election, he said. Although the task ahead is
difficult, "a war of nerves," Montealegre was confident he is
up to the challenge so long as he focuses on the main
objective - the needs and aspirations of the Nicaraguan
people.
FOUR-WAY RACE GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY, ROUGH ON THE NERVES
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
¶4. (C) Ambassador concurred that a four-way race is in the
cards, jesting that, while tough on the nerves, such a
competition is probably healthier for Nicaragua's democracy.
He added that this election poses a double challenge, the
struggle between democracy and the FSLN and the competition
between anti-Pact and pro-Pact parties. Referring to the
Department's statement on Nicaragua, the Ambassador assured
Montealegre that the U.S. stands firm vis a vis its position
on Aleman and the PLC. (Note: Press coverage of the
Department's statement was ample, generating several
questions for the press availability following the
Ambassador's meeting. The statement was reprinted in full by
national dailies and gossip magazines and read on several
nation-wide radio and television stations. While some
outlets heralded the statement as another sign the USG will
not support the PLC, others termed it another sign of U.S.
interventionism.)
¶5. (C) Ambassador also reiterated the U.S. commitment to
helping Nicaragua hold clean, fair, transparent, and
inclusive elections, informing the group that the
international community is well underway in its preparations
for observation. He shared that the OAS observation team
will arrive next week and will remain in Nicaragua until
January. He explained that the USG is contributing USD 2.5
million to the OAS efforts and millions more to assist
domestic observation and voter education, and to provide
technical assistance to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE).
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS
- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - -- -
¶6. (C) Endorsing his party's support for Montealegre, PC
leader Mario Rappaciolli recounted that the Conservatives had
erred by running on their own in the 1996 and 2001 national
elections. They had fared miserably and now realize that
they must unite with other parties for the sake of economic
and democratic stability. To Rappaciolli, the PLC is no
longer an option, as it is a party held hostage by one
family. Nicaraguans have reached a fork in the road and must
now choose to move forward or to continue along the current
ineffective path. Lauding the Department's April 18
statement on Nicaragua, which reiterates the Ambassador's
call on the PLC to distance itself from Aleman and to compete
in open multi-party primaries, Rappaciolli asserted that U.S.
opinion counts in Nicaragua and our help can bolster
Montealegre's chances to win in November.
¶7. (C) Rappaciolli offered that high voter turnout will work
in Montealegre's favor, asserting that at least 60 percent of
"independent" voters will choose Montealegre if they are
ultimately motivated to vote. He added that the parties
supporting Montealegre combined garnered 19% of the 2004
municipal election votes, a significant number. (Note:
Rappaciolli's estimate includes votes for APRE, an alliance
that the PC belonged to until 2005. The rest of APRE is
currently divided between supporting the PLC and ALN-PC,
though APRE's official leadership has clearly tilted towards
the PLC. End Note.) Fellow Conservative Alejandro Bolanos
(President Bolanos' nephew) emphasized the need to change
Nicaragua's culture of fear. Many Nicaraguans customarily
vote against the Sandinistas and Daniel Ortega rather than
voting for a better future, he explained, asserting that
Nicaragua's culture of fear has actually strengthened the
FSLN. The moment has arrived for Nicaraguans to transform
this fear into a vote for c
hange, Montealegre, concluded Bolanos.
RESISTANCE: PLEASE DON'T ABANDON US MID-STREAM
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
¶8. (C) Salvador Talavera (PRN) emphasized his goal to
consolidate Nicaragua's numerous Resistance groups to rally
around Montealegre. He echoed Rappaciolli's call for U.S.
support, noting that some of the many Resistance groups
hesitate to endorse Montealegre because they fear the U.S.
will flinch and support the PLC as the November nears. The
State Department's statement and the Ambassador's visit to
ALN headquarters have assuaged some of this fear, he said,
adding that two more Resistance groups may join Montealegre
next week. According to Talavera, the PRN is the main
Resistance party and contains two factions, one under
Comandante Ruben, and the other under Popo Chamorro. A
number of sub-groups are affiliated with these factions.
¶9. (C) According to PLI/Resistance member Indalecio
Rodriguez, Nicaragua's new political leaders must seek full
democracy for its people. The PLI had endorsed Montealegre
in his 1,500-member convention on September 4, 2005 and
ratified its support last week, he said. He explained that
PLI's support for Montealegre is based on common principles:
anti-autocracy, anti-FSLN (who he termed false Robin Hoods),
and anti-corruption. Roberto Urroz (MDN) recounted his
party's long struggle for democracy, first against Somoza,
then the FSLN, and now against the FSLN-PLC Pact. He
justified MDN's support for Montealegre because he is the
candidate best suited to lead Nicaragua forward by breaking
the pact and reducing poverty and corruption.
¶10. (C) PLI colleague Comandante Ruben asserted that the
Resistance still has a role to play, noting that many
Resistance members who have supported the PLC at the
municipal level in the past are disillusioned and willing to
support Montealegre. For the Resistance, it is especially
hard to accept that after 16 years of democracy and so much
sacrifice, the Liberals have surrendered space to the FSLN to
protect Aleman. Now more than ever, U.S. support will be
determinate in the November election.
UNIONS SUPPORT EDUARDO
- - - - - - - - - - - -
¶11. (C) According to PSC leader Jose Esteban Gonzalez,
Montealegre is attracting considerable support from
Nicaragua's non-Sandinista unions. He shared that a number
of these unions will soon publicly endorse Montealegre.
(Comment: In a recent poll, Montealegre attracted
considerable support from working class respondents. End
Comment.)
MSL LENDS ITS CASILLA, IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES WITH PLC
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
¶12. (C) MSL leader Carlos Garcia, a former president of the
PLC, explained his party's support for Montealegre and its
decision to lend Montealegre its spot (casilla) on the
ballot. According to Garcia, the MSL broke ranks with the
PLC in 1998 in opposition to PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's
corruption and his decision to forge a pact with Daniel
Ortega. He announced that the MSL will formally select
Eduardo Montealegre as its presidential candidate in its
convention on April 23.
MONTEALEGRE: MY CANDIDACY IS MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN RIZO'S
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
¶13. (C) Replying to Ambassador's comment that the PLC cites
its presidential convention as evidence that Rizo is a
democratically elected candidate while Montealegre is not,
Montealegre noted that three of the four official parties in
his alliance have already held conventions to select him as
their candidate. The fourth party, the PC, will hold a
convention on April 30. Further, all of the 148,000 or so
members of his movement Vamos con Eduardo have endorsed him
in writing. While some 400 or so PLC conventioneers voted
for Rizo, he enjoys the official support of over 150,000,
argued Montealegre. Further, on May 14, Vamos con Eduardo
affiliates will hold primaries to vote for National Assembly
departmental deputies and the ALN-PC will also do a poll to
verify the popularity of the candidates.
DISPELLING THE PARTY MACHINERY MYTH
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
¶14. (C) To Ambassador's query regarding the strength of
Montealegre's political machinery, Montealegre replied that
PLC claims that Montealegre lacks the machinery to defend his
votes and win the election are bogus. Montealegre said he
has worked hard over the months to build his alliance and its
large membership attests to his success. In the Atlantic
Coast election, for example, the ALN-PC had party monitors
(fiscals) positioned in 95% of the polling stations.
"Moreover, organizations don't win elections, rather
candidates with the right messages do," argued Montealegre.
A VOTE FOR RIZO IS A VOTE FOR ALEMAN
- - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - --
¶15. (C) Her usual direct, succinct self, ALN-PC Assembly
lawmaker Maria Eugenia Sequeira summed up the difference
between Montealegre and Rizo: "A vote for Rizo is a vote for
Aleman." She asserted that Montealegre offers a new option
not only for Nicaragua, but also for the region, as he
represents an alternative to stem Latin America's rise in
leftist leaders. Colleague Yamileth Bonilla opined that the
real challenge for Montealegre is to promote the vote, defend
it, and monitor the CSE and its local offices to make sure
the electoral process is fair and transparent. She added
that marketing the ALN-PC casilla will also be prove critical
to Montealegre's success, noting that in the Atlantic Coast
elections, many voters who supported Montealegre were
confused whether they should mark casilla 1 (PLC) or casilla
9 (ALN-PC) because the still associate him with the PLC.
Marketing Montealegre and his casilla 9 as a new political
product requires substantial resources, said Bonilla.
COMMENT
- - - -
¶16. (C) In the latest CID-Gallup countrywide poll, taken
after the PLC announced the selection of Jose Rizo as its
presidential candidate, Eduardo Montealegre still leads the
pack with 22 percent, followed by Herty Lewites (18%), Daniel
Ortega (16%) and Rizo (13%). Among those most likely to
vote, Montealegre's percentage stands at 26%, followed by
Ortega (20%), Lewites (18%), and Rizo (17%). Montealegre
offers voters the best option to move Nicaragua along a
democratic, just, and prosperous future. While he has
developed political machinery and performs well in the polls,
Montealegre will need a concerted, generously financed
campaign to effectively convey his message to Nicaraguans and
turn his popular support into votes on Election Day. To this
end, he requires the support of local, regional, and U.S.
capital.
TRIVELLI