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Viewing cable 06CARACAS854, BOLIVARIAN DOLLAR DIPLOMACY
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06CARACAS854 | 2006-03-29 16:52 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Caracas |
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHCV #0854/01 0881652
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291652Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3859
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6223
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1103
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 0040
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1908
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 3391
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 0083
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 0391
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0048
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS CARACAS 000854
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
TREASURY FOR KLINGENSMITH AND NGRANT
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID PREL VE
SUBJECT: BOLIVARIAN DOLLAR DIPLOMACY
REF: CARACAS 03227
This Message is Sensitive but Unclassified, please treat
accordingly.
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: During the past year President Chavez has
undertaken an extensive dollar-diplomacy campaign to win
friends and influence countries in the region and beyond.
Two recent studies, drawn from Chavez' announcements, place
BRV public commitments of support (donations, discounts,
government procurements, barter, financing, and investment
projects) over this period at USD 16.4 billion and USD 25.8
billion, respectively. While BRV non-transparency makes it
very difficult to assess the accuracy of these numbers, we
estimate the BRV provided to other countries roughly USD 4-5
billion in sweetheart deals, financial support, and
investments -- mostly to Cuba and Argentina. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------
LATIN-AMERICAN COMMITMENTS
--------------------------
¶2. (U) Julio Borges, former National Assembly Deputy for the
State of Miranda (2001-2005) and current Primero Justicia
presidential candidate, criticized the BRV for "giving away"
a reported USD 16.4 billion to 35 countries during 2005 and
the beginning of 2006. The Center for Economic Investigation
(CIECA), a private consulting firm, puts the giveaway at USD
25.8 billion over the past seven months. CIECA's inclusion
of USD 10 billion for the Fund Against Poverty, which Chavez
announced in November 2005 but never established, largely
explains the difference in totals. While the two studies
suffer from extreme imprecision, they provide a good profile
of Chavez' international financial promises (many of which
have not been executed) and have drawn public criticism
given deteriorating infrastructure and unmet social needs at
home.
¶3. (U) While the accounting is very imprecise, the studies
do include examples of tangible Venezuelan assistance to Cuba
and Argentina. The largest support to Cuba was oil; 98,000
barrels daily (USD 1.764 billion annually) per Borges or
95,000 barrels daily (USD 2 billion annually) per CIECA
(note: this is in exchange for roughly 20 thousand Cuban
medical personnel supporting the BRV missions. end note).
Both studies list Industrial Bank of Venezuela (BIV)
financing for Cuba, which we understand to be mainly loan
guarantees. Both studies also reported that Venezuela
purchased USD 1 billion in Argentine debt and the BRV
committed to buy an additional USD 2.4 billion. (Note:
according to press reports the BRV purchased USD 2.8 billion
in Argentine debt from May 2005 to March 2006, although it
has resold a substantial portion of the debt.) Both studies
include the barter of Venezuela oil for Argentine meat and
industrial products, the purchase of a refinery, as well as
agreement (not yet executed) to purchase Argentinian-built
petroleum tankers. We estimate that assistance to Cuba was
roughly USD 1.8 billion (mostly oil) and financial support to
Argentina (mostly debt purchase) was USD 990 million from
May-December 2005, increasing to USD 2.8 billion by March
¶2006.
¶4. (U) Venezuela's yet unrealized commitment to purchase
petroleum tankers from Brazil and the proposed construction
of the PDVSA-Petrobras refinery in Pernambuco, Brazil are
highlighted in both studies. CIECA counts Venezuela's
commitment to buy 28 tankers from Brazil (USD 3 billion), as
compared to Borges' count of 40 tankers (USD 2 billion).
Borges places the construction cost of the refinery in
Pernambuco at USD 2.5 billion, as compared to CIECA's and our
estimate of USD 1.25 billion. It is premature to determine
the likelihood of implementation of agreements for Paraguay,
Uraguay, and Bolivia, announced in December 2005 and January
¶2006. These include oil at barter and preferential terms,
scholarships for students from rural areas, and loans for
hospital equipment.
¶5. (U) Neither study includes Chavez' proposed USD 20
billion 9,000 km natural gas pipeline from Venezuela to
Argentina. Critics charge that the pipeline is not feasible
because Venezuela does not have sufficient gas to pump to
meet regional demand. The delivery of the gas over such a
long distance would also be prohibitively expensive and cause
considerable environmental damage to the Amazon rain forest.
------------------
WORLD-WIDE SUPPORT
------------------
¶6. (U) Chavez also reached out to the U.S., the Caribbean,
and as far as Indonesia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, and
Niger. As part of the BRV diplomatic strategy to lobby the
U.S. public, Venezuela donated heating oil for poor residents
in Boston, New York, Chicago, Rhode Island, Vermont, and
Maine (worth USD 200 million per CIECA or USD 10 million per
Borges). Venezuela also sold oil at preferential terms to
the Caribbean (worth USD 536 million per CIECA or USD 742
million per Borges), in an effort to win support within the
Organization of American States. Assistance to Mali, Burkina
Faso, and Niger was reportedly humanitarian aide and food,
however, the BRV cannot fully account for the funds directed
to support aid to Africa. However, in November 2005, the BRV
could not confirm how much of the aid to Africa had been
obligated for the purchase of medical and food supplies
(reftel). In Indonesia, the BRV will reportedly support the
construction of an educational center.
------------------
JULIO BORGES STUDY
------------------
¶7. (U) The table below shows Julio Borge's analysis:
USD thousands
UNITED STATES
Study to Clear Hudson River 100
Citgo Heating oil 200,000
Public Propaganda 180
TOTAL 200,280
CUBA
Construct homes 2,000
Financing for Refinery 43,000
Electricity Project 20,000
Endogenous Development Project 5,682
Distribution of Petroleum 1,764,000
Cuban Debt 3,000,000
BIV financing for Construction Ministry 10,000
BIV financing for Cubana de Petroleo 20,000
BIV financing for lubricant and oil plant 47,000
BIV financing for tourism sector 10,000
Salaries for Cuban Doctors 96,000
TOTAL 5,017,682
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Infrastructure loan 156,400
TOTAL 156,400
DOMINICA
Donation for construction of new airport 10,000
TOTAL 10,000
PUERTO RICO
Chicago Festival 2005 donation 100
250,000 barrels of oil 1.5% discount 150
TOTAL 250
CARIBE
Fondo Alba-Caribe
Finance for Social and Economic Programs 50,000
Petrocaribe- 72,000 barrels of oil 742,000
TOTAL 792,000
ECUADOR
Public bonds 25,000
TOTAL 25,000
BRAZIL
40 Petroleum Tankers 2,000,000
Refinery 2,500,000
Samba School 1,000
TOTAL 4,501,000
BOLIVIA
Diesel at 10% discount 851
Barter of Diesel for Agriculture Products 150,000
Donation to Bolivia 30,000
Scholarships 5,815
Network of community radios 1,500
TOTAL 188,166
PARAGUAY
13,000 barrels/day of gasoil and 18,600
barrels/day of petroleum at generous conditions 100,000
TOTAL 100,000
URUGUAY
43,600 barrels/day of petroleum 40,000
Donations for Refinery la Teja 600,000
Purchase of Alcohol Carburante 7,000
Barter of Petroleum for Goods and Services 200,000
Loan to Equip an Industrial Plant 7,000
CADAFE Exchange with UTE 10,300
Loan for Social Development Ministry 3,000
Loan for Hospital 17,500
Assistance to Uruguayan Businesses 5,000
TOTAL 889,800
ARGENTINA
Repair of four tankers 6,450
Purchase of 2 Petroleum tankers 120,000
Argentine Bonds 1,000,000
Barter of 5 million barrels of oil/day
for meat 200,000
Barter of 4 million barrels of oil/day
for industrial products 340,000
Refinery Rhasa 100,000
Argentine Bonds 2,400,000
Line of credit for cooperatives 3,000
TOTAL 4,169,450
INDONESIA
Technology Institute 2,000
TOTAL 2,000
MAURITANA
Food Assistance 500
TOTAL 500
MALI
Humanitarian Aid 800
TOTAL 800
BURKINA FASO
Food Assistance 1,000
TOTAL 1,000
NIGER
Food Assistance 1,500
TOTAL 1,500
JAMAICA
Highway 2000 300,000
Donation for the Petrojam Refinery 7,000
TOTAL 307,000
TOTAL 16,362,828
ADDITIONAL -
TELESUR
51% of the shares are for Venezuela 10,000
TOTAL 10,000
----------
CIECA STUDY
----------
¶8. (U) The table below shows CIECA's analysis:
USD million
AMERICA
04/11/2005 Fund to Fight Poverty 10,000
TOTAL 10,000
ARGENTINA
Refinery Campanas 100
Foreign Debt I 500
04/07/2005 Cooperatives 3
12/08/2005 4 million barrels of fuel oil 340
12/08/2005 Construction of 2 tankers 112
16/09/2005 Foreign debt II 500
20/12/2005 Foreign debt III 2,400
TOTAL 3,955
BOLIVA
PetroSur: 5,000 barrels/day, USD/barrel 45,
1 year 30% financing 33
04/01/2006 Social Works 30
TOTAL 63
BRASIL
30/09/2005 Refinery at Permanbuco (50%) 1,250
04/11/2005 28 tankers for PDVSA 3,000
17/12/2005 Plant 125
TOTAL 4,375
CARIBE
30/06/2005 Petro-Caribe 50
11/09/2005 Petro-Caribe 98,600 barrels/day,
USD/barrel 45, 1 year, 30% financing 486
TOTAL 536
CUBA
Electronic Project for Habana 20
BIV ) Instalation, Capitalizacion 80
BIV 400
Petroleo 2006, USD 45/barrel,
95,000 barrels/day 1,560
22/08/2005 PDVSA/BIV- &Endogenous Development8 8
02/09/2005 BIV ) Linea de Cred Exp venezolanas 87
11/09/2005 Petroleo:95,000 barrels/day, USD/barrels
45, 1 year, 100% financing 2,080
17/09/2005 BIV-Housing 50
08/10/2005 Refinery at Cienfuegos
65,000 barrels/day 58
TOTAL 4,343
ECUADOR
08/12/2005 Bonds 25
TOTAL 25
UNITED STATES
04/09/2005 CITGO ) Donation for Katrina 5
22/11/2005 Subsidy for heating oil 10
TOTAL 15
GUYANA
Loan Forgiveness 12
TOTAL 12
INDONESIA
20/08/2005 Educational Center 2
TOTAL 2
JAMAICA
08/10/2005 Refinery Kingston,
con Petrojam 36,000 barrels/day to 50,000 barrels/day
300
03/01/2006 Highway 2000 300
TOTAL 600
PARAGUAY
11/09/2005 Petroleo 1 - 8 million barrels/day
USD/barrels 45, 1 year, 30% financing 624
10/12/2005 Expansion of Elisa Refinery 0
TOTAL 624
REPUBLICA DOMINICANA
17/09/2005 Infrastructure 156
TOTAL 156
URUGUAY
PetroSur:
43.6 M barrels/day, USD/barrels 45,
1 year, 30% financing 287
29/07/2005 Refinery La Teja 600
29/07/2005 CASA )food purchases 12
18/11/2005 Trust for barter of petroleum for food 200
08/12/2005 Improvement of hospital infrastructure 1
09/12/2005 Support for firms for workers 5
09/12/2005 Alcohol carburante 7
09/12/2005 Hospital de Clinicas 10
10/12/2005 Children's Center 3
10/12/2005 Cadafe-UTE Exchange 10
11/12/2005 BANDES: financing for entrepreneurs 3
14/01/2006 Firms 5
TOTAL 1,143
TOTAL 25,849
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶9. (SBU) To date, Chavez' give-away campaign has been much
more rhetoric than dollars; however, in several specific
cases we are talking real money, such as Cuba, Argentina, and
perhaps Bolivia. In other cases, the public perception is
that Chavez is giving away free oil, money, or supplies, when
he actually only promises a discount, generous financing, a
purchase, or an investment. Whether all this translates into
eventual strengthened concrete political support or countries
will simply take the money, smile and run is an open question.
¶10. (SBU) However, by the end of 2006, we estimate the BRV's
National Development Fund (FONDEN) will have received USD 17
billion in transfers from the BRV (read: Central Bank and
PDVSA transfers), some of which Chavez could divert to
support his diplomatic initiatives without any effective
public scrutiny or oversight. The BRV could strategically
deposit or "invest" FONDEN funds (as it reportedly did to
purchase Argentine bonds), purchase imports from targeted
countries (e.g., products potentially displaced by U.S.-third
country FTAs such as Bolivian soybeans), or directly fund
various projects abroad.
BROWNFIELD