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Viewing cable 09MOSCOW278, RUSSIA WELCOMES PRESIDENT OBAMA BUT FOREIGN POLICY
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09MOSCOW278 | 2009-02-05 14:14 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Moscow |
VZCZCXRO3830
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #0278/01 0361414
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051414Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1779
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 000278
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA WELCOMES PRESIDENT OBAMA BUT FOREIGN POLICY
GOALS UNCHANGED
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Russia will not change its foreign policy
goals because of the financial crisis or difficulties in
relations with the West and neighbors, according to FM Lavrov
in his annual press conference on January 16. Blaming the
conflicts in 2008 mostly on the West, Lavrov nonetheless
emphasized that Russia was ready for "equal cooperation."
Moscow's top foreign policy priority was the CIS, though
Russia did not seek new "spheres of influence." The Georgia
conflict had highlighted the need for a "polycentric system
of governance" and a new European security model, whereas the
financial crisis had emphasized the need to focus on real
issues not "virtual projects" like NATO enlargement. Both
Lavrov and DFM Ryabkov expressed hope there would be changes
in policy under the Obama Administration, leading to improved
U.S.-Russian relations building off the April 2007 Sochi
Declaration, with President Medvedev using a meeting with
Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Kislyak to reinforce
expectations of early and productive engagement. Russia
called for serious negotiations on a post-START Treaty,
reconsideration of missile defense plans for eastern Europe,
and direct U.S. dialogue with Iran. Despite the positive
comments on U.S.-Russian relations by GOR officials, the
GOR-influenced media downplayed the U.S. inauguration. In
response to Lavrov, experts see Russian actions, particularly
in Georgia and Ukraine, as likely to have negative
consequences for its relations with the CIS and the West. End
summary.
No Change in Goals
------------------
¶2. (SBU) In his annual press conference on Russia's foreign
policy January 16, FM Lavrov emphasized that Moscow would not
change its foreign policy goals laid out in President
Medvedev's Foreign Policy Concept (reftel) despite the
financial crisis and the difficult issues and relations
Russia experienced in 2008. Instead of highlighting Russia's
foreign policy successes and future goals, Lavrov
acknowledged that the previous year had been "rich in major
controversial events that seriously affected the situation in
the world." He stressed that Russia had completed a period
of "inner concentration," focusing on a "qualitatively new
geopolitical situation," and now had a clear understanding of
its national interests. Noting that Russia was "ready for
equal cooperation" with its international partners, he
nonetheless blamed most of the difficulties of the prior year
on the West's policies, particularly the recognition of
Kosovo, desire to enlarge NATO to Georgia and Ukraine, and
efforts to "contain Russia."
¶3. (SBU) Calling the global financial crisis the most
important event of 2008, Lavrov denied that the crisis (which
is seriously affecting Russia) would have a significant
impact on proposed major projects, such as the construction
of the North Stream and South Stream pipelines, though it
might slow some projects down due to a reduction in funds.
Rather, the financial crisis would affect the methods by
which foreign policy was conducted. Lavrov predicted that
"urgent issues" would replace "virtual projects" (such as
NATO enlargement), with a new impulse to "strengthen the
common agenda, de-ideologize international relations, and
focus on pragmatic approaches."
CIS Top Priority for Russia
---------------------------
¶4. (SBU) Lavrov stated that development of relations with the
CIS was Russia's "absolute priority," noting the creation of
a new Agency for the CIS within the MFA and President
Medvedev's January 22-23 visit to Uzbekistan. He denied that
Russia was seeking "spheres of influence," stressing instead
the long-standing ties between Russia and its neighbors and
Moscow's desire to develop relations with those countries on
an "equal, mutually beneficial basis."
Need for New European Security Architecture
-------------------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) Lavrov reiterated that the previous year's
difficulties had merely reinforced the need for a
"polycentric system of governance." Repeating Russian
arguments justifying its war with Georgia and contending that
Georgian government actions had "forced" Moscow to recognize
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Lavrov indicated that such events
demonstrated the "urgency" for a new European Security model.
He maintained that Medvedev's proposal was not designed to
eliminate existing security institutions, including NATO;
Russia sought to participate in the discussions and
development of a new structure intended to remove remaining
MOSCOW 00000278 002 OF 004
dividing lines. Lavrov repeated the GOR mantra that just as
the financial crisis had shown that one country could not
secure its financial security at the expense of any other, no
country should ensure its security at the expense of another.
Hope for Improved Relations with the U.S.
-----------------------------------------
¶6. (SBU) Lavrov stressed that Moscow wanted to "actively
cooperate" with the new U.S. Administration and hoped there
would be "changes for the better" in U.S. foreign policy.
This overarching message was reinforced by Medvedev on
January 15. In a meeting with Russian Ambassador to the U.S.
Kislyak, Medvedev noted that despite disagreement on a number
of issues, there were fields where the two countries "simply
must work together," highlighting the global financial
crisis, the fight against terrorism, organized crime and
illegal narcotics, and non-proliferation. He said Russia
would like to see relations with the U.S. "evolve and develop
intensively and constructively in all areas."
¶7. (SBU) Russian leaders continue to highlight the April 2007
Sochi Declaration as a bilateral template, with Lavrov
calling for a "more substantive, constructive conversation"
on a post-START arms control regime; a pause in development
of the missile defense sites in eastern Europe and a
reconsideration of Russia's 2007 proposals for a
Russia-U.S.-European system for tracking and developing joint
responses to missile threats; and the resumption of
high-level economic dialogue. Stressing that the U.S. and
Russia had a "huge agenda," including the Middle East,
Afghanistan, Iraq, nuclear and weapons proliferation,
counternarcotics, combating international crime, and
counterterrorism, Lavrov urged the U.S. to discard
"unnecessary, virtual" projects, such as NATO enlargement,
and focus on a common agenda.
¶8. (SBU) Both Lavrov and MFA Deputy Foreign Minister for
North America Sergey Ryabkov, in separate interviews January
17 and 19, expressed the hope that the new U.S.
Administration would open a window of opportunity to rekindle
U.S.-Russian relations. Even as speculation mounts in the
media over early visits by the President and Secretary, both
stressed that the problems in the relationship would not be
solved overnight. Emphasizing that it was up to the new
Administration to determine the relationship with Russia,
they said that Russia was ready for open, equal, pragmatic
interaction with the U.S., and believed it was possible to
build on past efforts to move the relationship forward.
Lavrov, speaking to "Vesti" TV, pointed to the Sochi
Declaration as embodying the principles upon which the
relationship was founded: do everything to solve problems in
the areas where our approaches are similar, and strive to
ensure that differences on other issues do not hamper
cooperation. However, both Lavrov and Ryabkov, in his
interview with ITAR-TASS, reiterated opposition to U.S.
missile defense plans and NATO enlargement, and expressed the
hope the U.S. Administration would "thoroughly review" the
policies. Ryabkov emphasized the top priority of negotiating
a post-START treaty, while recognizing the differences in
approach between the two sides.
¶9. (SBU) In his "Vesti" TV interview, Lavrov welcomed the
prospect of direct dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, noting
that Russia's dialogue with Iran was developing "quite
successfully."
Desultory Reaction to Obama Inauguration
----------------------------------------
¶10. (SBU) While Russian officials have favorably spun
prospects for improved relations with the U.S., the
GOR-influenced and state-controlled media have downplayed
President Obama's inauguration. Coverage has been desultory,
with most newspapers carrying the story on inside pages, and
little analysis or comment from officials or the press.
Conservative attack dogs,such as TV commentator Mikhail
Leontyev, have disparaged prospects for change, with other
commentators referring to "G.W. Obama." A number of Russian
attendees at the Spaso House viewing of the inauguration
commented on the strong contrast between the U.S. ceremony,
with over a million "average" Americans on the Mall to
witness it, and Medvedev's inauguration in May, which was
limited to a small group of the elite. There is clear
sensitivity about the obviously free and fair competition in
the U.S. electoral process, contrasted to Russia's "foregone
conclusion." Noting the debacle of Ukraine and Georgia,
Russia in Global Affairs editor Fedor Lukyanov attributed
small advances in Bishkek and Dushanbe to the effects of the
MOSCOW 00000278 003 OF 004
international crisis, and not the attractiveness of Russian
foreign policy.
Experts Express Skepticism
--------------------------
¶11. (SBU) Although some commentators, such as Sergey
Karaganov, Director of the Council on Foreign and Defense
Policy, characterized Russia as having won in 2008 on foreign
policy issues as the war in Georgia, NATO enlargement, and
reemergence of Russia as a major power, many experts
questioned Lavrov's positive spin and emphasized the
consequences of Russia's actions on its relations with the
rest of the world.
¶12. (SBU) Andrei Fedorov, Director of Political Programs of
the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy and former Deputy
Foreign Minister (1990-1991), contended that there was little
being done on a new EU-Russia Partnership Agreement,
NATO-Russian relations were "still in a state of
hypothermia," U.S-Russian relations were at a low point,
Russian relations with the CIS were "far from desirable," and
Russian relations with Ukraine were "the worst" in the past
few years. He added that Russia's credibility as a reliable
political partner had been undermined, the gas conflict with
Ukraine "did not add optimism," and Russia had pushed the EU
to revise the entire system of European energy security.
Characterizing 2008 as a year of an "almost constant obstacle
course" for Russia, he predicted that Russia would not gain
new allies, but increasingly be required to defend its
national interests alone.
¶13. (SBU) Vladimir Milov, head of the World Energy Institute
and member of the opposition party Solidarity, and Alexey
Malashenko of the Moscow Carnegie Center, both posited to us
that Russia's top foreign policy priority was to "retake
post-Soviet space," but that its actions in Georgia and over
the gas crisis in Ukraine were having the opposite effect;
they were driving away Russia's former partners, including in
Central Asia, where Russia's actions had thrown into question
who could best guarantee their security. Characterizing
Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine as "major mistakes,"
Malashenko contended that they would have long-term
consequences for Russia's relations in the region.
¶14. (SBU) There has been incredulity over Lavrov's assertion
that the financial crisis would not affect any major foreign
policy projects, with a Kommersant editorial arguing that
Russia's "ambitious expansion" into Latin America, creation
of a Russia-Belarus Union State and plans to unite the CIS,
and alternate pipelines were all likely victims. All these
projects, Kommersant reported, had run into serious problems:
Russian oil and gas companies had said there were no funds to
invest in Latin America; Russia-Belarus discussions on a
Union State had been postponed twice and Lukashenko had not
even recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia; the plan for the
new MFA CIS Federal Agency to create a Russian analogue to
AID had not materialized; and Gazprom, even before the
dispute with Ukraine, had started seeking new investors for
Nord Stream due to lack of money to pay for it. Kommersant
also noted that contrary to Lavrov's statement that
Russian-EU interaction over the past year had been "a good
example of a constructive, pragmatic approach," the EU,
during the war with Georgia, had considered imposing
sanctions on Russia; had decided to support the Nabucco
pipeline; had frozen negotiations on the new PCA for two
months; and had suggested that the next "victims" after
Georgia and Ukraine could be Moldova. Kommersant ironically
noted that Lavrov's conclusion that "Russia has largely
completed the period of focus" came from his 1856-1882
predecessor Prince Gorchakov, who actually had said: "Russia
is accused of being isolated and silent in the face of facts
that are not in tune with any law or with justice. They say
that Russia is angry. Russia is not angry, Russia is
focused."
Comment
-------
¶15. (SBU) While acknowledging that there have been "major
controversial events" in the past year, Lavrov and Russian
officials continue to put the blame on the rest of the world,
particularly the U.S., and intimate that if only the rest of
the world would address issues in a pragmatic and open way
and include Russia as an equal partner, all would be well.
While there does seem to be a genuine hope and desire to
improve relations with the U.S., Lavrov and other GOR
officials have adhered to an uncompromising line that it will
not come at the expense of concessions on Russia's perceived
MOSCOW 00000278 004 OF 004
"red lines."
BEYRLE