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Viewing cable 08CARACAS197, VENEZUELAN KEY RESOURCES AND CRITICAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08CARACAS197 2008-02-19 17:18 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Caracas
VZCZCXYZ0020
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCV #0197 0501718
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191718Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0615
UNCLAS CARACAS 000197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ATTN: S. GAIL ROBINSON S/CT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC EAID ECON ETTC PGOV PTER PERL EAGER EFIN
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN KEY RESOURCES AND CRITICAL 
INFRASTRUCTURE 
 
REF: A. STATE 6461 
 
     B. GAO-06-668 JUNE 2006 
 
1.  In response to reftel A, Venezuela has little or no 
critical infrastructure (as defined in reftel A) and few key 
resources that are vital to the United States.  Venezuela's 
most significant resource that is supplied to the US is 
petroleum and petroleum products.  Venezuela produces 
approximately 2.6 million barrels per day (MBD) of oil and 
exports approximately 1.4 MBD of oil per day to the United 
States, which accounts for approximately 11 per cent of U.S. 
imported oil and approximately seven per cent of the total 
daily US oil consumption. 
 
2.  Reference B, a U.S. GAO study: Energy Security: Issues 
Related to Potential Reductions in Venezuelan Oil highlights 
a DOE estimate that a 6-month disruption of crude oil with a 
temporary loss of 2.2 MBD would result in an increase in 
crude oil prices and a reduction of up to USD 23 billion in 
U.S. GDP relative to a predicted GDP of USD 13 trillion, 
about 0.19 percent of total GDP.  The study also estimated 
that GDP growth would be about 0.18 percent less than what it 
would have been otherwise for the year.  A separate analysis 
in the same report conducted by GAO estimated a reduction 
between USD 2.5 to 7.5 billion of total GDP. 
 
3.  Some of the options the United States may pursue to 
mitigate any impact of a Venezuelan oil supply disruption 
include diplomacy, whereby U.S. government officials 
negotiate with senior officials in oil producing countries to 
increase their supply of crude oil in case of a disruption, 
using oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and 
coordination with the International Energy Agency, whose 
members hold stocks equal to 90 days or more of its net 
imports to address supply disruptions.  According to an 
Energy Information Agency (EIA) study, during the Venezuelan 
oil workers strike in the winter of 2002-2003, which resulted 
in an approximate loss of 2.2 MBD of crude oil, most of the 
replacement oil came from Mexico and the Middle East, 
especially Iraq. 
 
4.  Finally, any disruption in Venezuelan oil production 
would be devastating for Venezuela.  Oil revenues account for 
between 45 and 50 percent of Venezuelan government revenues. 
A severe drop in oil revenues would cripple the economy and 
pose a grave threat to the Venezuelan government and to the 
country as a whole. 
 
DUDDY