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Viewing cable 08SURABAYA27, EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: PROGRESS ON PLANNED USG TECHNICAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SURABAYA27 2008-02-27 07:32 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Consulate Surabaya
VZCZCXRO8125
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0027 0580732
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270732Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0167
INFO RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0083
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0085
RUEHCAA/GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0154
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0023
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0172
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0030
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SURABAYA 000027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, EB/ESC/IES 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: PROGRESS ON PLANNED USG TECHNICAL 
ASSISTANCE 
 
REF: A. A: 07 SURABAYA 37 (USGS SITE VISIT) 
 
     B. B: SURABAYA 22 AND PREVIOUS 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary: On February 26, Sidoarjo Mud Management 
Agency (BPLS) Engineers Mr. Soffian Hadi and Mr. Handoko Teguh 
told Congen Surabaya Pol/Econ officer that U.S. assistance 
discussed in previous meetings (Ref A) is much needed and will 
likely receive official approval if the U.S. proposes a concrete 
time frame.  The proposed assistance includes: 1.) A short-term 
technical survey visit by U.S. specialists; 2) Light Detection 
and Ranging (LIDAR) site survey by US aircraft; and 3) Long-term 
advisory assistance from a U.S. geologist headquartered at 
Congen Surabaya.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  During a February 26 meeting to discuss recent events 
at the mudflow site (septel) and prospects for U.S. assistance, 
Soffian Hadi and Handoko Teguh welcomed the prospect of U.S. 
assistance.  Mr. Hadi said that although coordination and 
approval will involve national level and local agencies, he 
expressed confidence that coordination will be successful and 
necessary approvals obtained.  Mr. Hadi expressed interest in 
learning of the results of a USGS analysis of mud samples taken 
in September 2007.  He also agreed to advise Congen Surabaya 
regarding next steps.  In addition to discussing technical 
assistance, the engineers also described current challenges at 
the site and responded to questions posed to them via Congen 
Surabaya by Thomas Casadevall of the U.S. Geological Survey. 
 
Responses to USGS Questions Regarding Current Conditions and 
Plans 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  What are BPLS's current long-term plans for mud 
management, how is the plan formulated and is there a time 
horizon implicit in the plan? 
 
Soffian Hadi said that infrastructure relocation is currently 
the only portion of mud management with a clear time horizon. 
BPLS hopes to facilitate relocation of the toll road beyond the 
area affected by the mud within two years.  Unfortunately, 
recent dike failures and increased uncertainty about the 
direction and extent of future subsidence has made effective 
planning of the new road next to impossible. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Are there other foreign "experts", consultants, or 
advisers involved in assisting the Board? 
 
Both BPLS engineers described recent visits by Dr. Amanda 
Clarke, Volcanologist and Assistant Professor at the University 
of Arizona.  The BPLS engineers were not certain who financed 
Dr. Clarke's trip, but they understood that the Bakrie Group had 
arranged her visit to the site and assumed that they had 
financed it.  Dr. Clarke traveled throughout East Java visiting 
volcanoes and will reportedly return during the March - April 
2008 time frame with other specialists, according to Hadi and 
Teguh.  Dr. Adriano Mazzini at the University of Oslo also 
visited the site recently and concluded that the mudflow cannot 
be stopped, according to Mr. Hadi. 
 
5.  (SBU)  What additional engineering options are they 
considering?  How have BPLS' efforts fared during the current 
rainy season? 
 
There are no plans to use other methods mud disposal beyond 
continuing to use the current spillway to pump mud slurry into 
the Porong River.  During the current rainy season, the volume 
and flow rate of water in the Porong has effectively eliminated 
dry season sedimentation in the river.  Mr. Hadi and Teguh felt 
that the rainy season performance of the dike system has been 
poor overall.  A series of serious dike breaches have occurred 
due to pressures exerted by subsidence and rainy season 
floodwaters.  (Ref B). 
 
MCCLELLAND