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Viewing cable 07CARACAS531, VENEZUELA'S BRAIN DRAIN: SEARCHING FOR A PLAN B,
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07CARACAS531 | 2007-03-09 20:58 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Caracas |
VZCZCXRO1562
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHCV #0531/01 0682058
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 092058Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8092
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 000531
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR KLINGENSMITH AND NGRANT
COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/WH/MCAMERON
NSC FOR DTOMLINSON
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS CASC ECON SOCI VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S BRAIN DRAIN: SEARCHING FOR A PLAN B,
THE CONSULAR DIMENSION
REF: CARACAS 256
CARACAS 00000531 001.2 OF 004
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (SBU) Over the last two months, President Chavez has
heralded a "deepening of the Bolivarian Revolution" with a
series of actions, including nationalization of key
industries, new threats to foreign investors, aggressive
attacks on private industry, and granting himself the power
to legislate by decree. The revolutionary direction of the
BRV, combined with related deterioration of the security
situation and increasing shortages, have encouraged large
numbers of Venezuelans with the capability to leave to
actively develop what they call "Plan B:" emigration from
Venezuela. Post, various EU embassies with large immigrant
communities here, and Australian and Canadian organizations
have all experienced an important up-tick in visa
applications, both NIVs and IVs, and in citizenship claims.
The deteriorating political and economic situation in Caracas
has gotten to the point that significant numbers of
Venezuela's educated middle and upper classes have decided to
take positive steps to leave Venezuela. Should these
individuals actually decide to execute Plan B, one effect
will be a freer hand for Chavez in moving toward the
centralized authoritarian state he desires.
----------------
AMERICA DREAMING
----------------
¶2. (SBU) Applications for non-immigrant visas (NIVs) and
immigrant visas (IVs) have grown substantially in recent
years (see table below). The demand for consular services
spiked following President Chavez' declarations at the start
of his Presidential term on January 8 (reftel). By January
10 the consular section's call center for visa appointments
was receiving over 900 calls daily (up from an average of 300
daily) and was quickly overwhelmed by the unexpected increase
in volume. For the month of January, appointment requests
were up over 100 percent as compared to December 2006. The
following table shows the total non-immigrant and immigrant
visa caseload during each of the fiscal years.
FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006
NIV 107,967 127,320 137,472
IV 1,309 1,649 2,235
SOURCE: Consular Workload Statistics System (CIVSS)
¶3. (SBU) Due this spike in demand, as of February 27, the
average waiting time for an NIV applicant in Caracas is 107
days, almost double what it was at the end of December 2006
and Caracas now has one of the longest waiting times for
tourist visa applicants in the hemisphere. The Consular
Section's NIV refusal rate has also increased in recent weeks
as the disintegrating political and economic situations have
become evident in the applicant pool. The number of
applicants who have not traveled within the last 10 years and
have poorly articulated travel plans has also increased
significantly, which for many consular officers implies that
these applicants are more interested in securing a visa for
future security rather than for a particular trip.
¶4. (SBU) At the same time that more people are trying to
apply for non-immigrant visas, the American Citizen Services
(ACS) section has also seen a jump in activity, with passport
applications increasing from 5 per day to a record of 37
passport applications processed on January 26. ACS has been
receiving American Citizens who have not contacted the
Embassy in decades, now keenly interested in obtaining new
passports for themselves and for previously un-registered
children (including many adults). There are also increasing
numbers of concerned Amcits e-mailing and calling ACS seeking
to ensure that they are properly documented and asking for
details on Embassy "evacuation plans." One 93-year old U.S.
citizen has been living in Venezuela since 1938 and recently
CARACAS 00000531 002.2 OF 004
came into the Embassy for the first time to register his 60
year old children as Amcits. One interpretation of this is
that the situation in Venezuela has not been as bad in the
past 68 years as it is perceived to be now.
¶5. (SBU) Embassy Caracas' IV e-mail box has been flooded with
stories similar to the following: "I am a U.S. citizen
married to a Venezuelan woman for over 15 years and we have
three children, all U.S. citizens. Up until now I had never
really considered relocating to the U.S., but in light of
recent events I have become increasingly worried and am now
seriously considering moving my family to the U.S."
-------------
JUS SANGUINIS
-------------
¶6. (U) Venezuela has historically been an immigration
destination and as the Portuguese Consul General recently
noted to EconOff, "even if it doesn't look it, Venezuela is a
rich country." Spain, Portugal and Italy have the largest
expat populations in Venezuela, though most of these
communities are thoroughly established, going back anywhere
from 50-150 years. Venezuela does not recognize dual
nationality and placed heavy pressure on immigrants in the
1960s and 70s to renounce their European citizenship, but
today many Venezuelans are rediscovering their rights to EU
passports.
¶7. (SBU) Probably the largest recipient of Venezuelan
visitors and prospective immigrants (after the United
States), Spain's consulate in Caracas is processing between
800 to 1000 people daily. A recent article from Galicia
noted that Venezuela was now the largest source of
immigrants/ returnees to Spain (having recently surpassed
Argentina) and compared it to the spike seen in 2002 during
the general strike. One reading holds that the difference is
that in 2002 and 2003, Venezuelans were emigrating for
immediate economic reasons, whereas now most people seeking
assistance at the Spanish consulate want to leave due to the
degradation of political and economic liberties.
¶8. (SBU) The Italian Consulate here receives 340 passport
applications daily (up by almost 100/day in recent months)
and the Portuguese are close behind, issuing on average 300
passports daily (also up about 50 percent this month). For
her part, the Italian consul attributed most of the increase
to U.S. requirements for travelers with passports issued as
of October 26, 2006 to have biometric data in order to use
the Visa Waiver Program (VWP), noting that "most of our
applicants want Italian passports to go to Miami." The
Venezuelan document agency, ONIDEX, takes months to process a
passport application and routinely refuses to process the
applications of opposition members and signatories to the
2004 recall referendum. These delays have caused many to
seek to obtain a second passport simply as a means of having
a travel document, which is preferable to the USD 230-280
bribe reportedly required for "expedited service" at ONIDEX.
--------------------
IMMIGRATE BY NUMBERS
--------------------
¶9. (U) For professional Venezuelans ineligible for an EU
passport, the preferred immigration destinations in recent
years have been Australia and Canada, both of which offer
points-based immigration programs. These programs allow
applicants to qualify for visas based on their English
ability, education, work experience and overall "value" to
the respective country's economy. Australia does not have a
diplomatic mission in Venezuela, but through the Southern
Cross Alliance (SCA), Venezuelans can apply for Australian
IVs through the mail. The process, which can take up to a
year and cost USD 7,000, combines English language tests with
interviews and an evaluation of the applicant's education and
work experience. The local SCA representative said that
applications had been up in recent years, and that
approximately 1,000 Venezuelans immigrated to Australia in
¶2006. The latest seminars on the topic, after Chavez'
December reelection, were hugely oversubscribed and
CARACAS 00000531 003.2 OF 004
apparently turned surrounding roads into parking lots -- to
the extent that they may not be welcome back for their next
seminar.
¶10. (SBU) Most of the Venezuelans planning to emigrate to
Australia are young professionals (they have to be under 44
years old) and the SCA representative said that he had many
clients currently employed with blue chip, international
firms, like Proctor and Gamble and Johnson and Johnson. They
also received many inquiries from CANTV and Electricidad de
Caracas (EDC) employees after Chavez announced plans to
nationalize those companies. These individuals want to avoid
what happened to many professionals at PDVSA, who were first
fired for their political leanings and then could not obtain
Australian IVs because they had not worked in the past six
months (a requirement for the visa) by the time their
applications were prepared.
¶11. (SBU) Additional destinations investigated by Venezuelans
eager to prepare their escape include Costa Rica and Panama,
which both offer residency programs for immigrants that
purchase property or invest in their countries. Other South
American nations are an option if family members or corporate
relationships can provide opportunities for jobs in
multi-national corporations and work visas. A prominent
lawyer told EconCouns that, while he did not contemplate
leaving, he was looking to establish residency for his wife
and children in Panama. As the market for good legal counsel
is very lucrative, he said that he would stay in Venezuela as
long as he could.
-----------------------------
IT'S THAT GIANT SUCKING SOUND
-----------------------------
¶12. (SBU) There is increasing evidence, both numerical and
anecdotal, that some middle and upper class Venezuelans are
already leaving Venezuela. Consular officers in Caracas
already refer to Weston, FL as "little Venezuela." Catholic
Church officials estimate that there are as many as 200,000
Venezuelans now living in the United States. As is seen in
much of the developing world, flight of the professional and
middle classes will only retard the country's economic and
political development. As a microcosm, the "new" PDVSA is a
pale comparison of its "old" predecessor. Once one of the
leading state-owned oil companies, PDVSA is now a bloated,
corrupt, inefficient extension of the state faced with
declining production and constant refinery troubles --
related no doubt to a clear lack of competent personnel.
¶13. (SBU) Venezuela's educated and professional classes are
the most tempted by offers abroad. The Canadian provincial
government of Alberta is recruiting petroleum engineers, as
are the Saudis and other petroleum exporting countries. A
recent conversation with the human resources services firm
Manpower illuminated the increasing difficulty in attracting
executives and professionals to Venezuela, noting the
deteriorating security situation as the principal cause.
They also worry about the exodus of recent college graduates
from Venezuela, though were hopeful that this trend was
temporary. According to them 40,000 people had left
Venezuela in recent years for Spain, but of those already
8,000 had returned.
¶14. (SBU) Chavez does not seem perturbed by this turn of
events and has repeated invitations to his opponents to go to
Miami if they are unhappy here. Some commentators are
beginning to pick up on this trend and a recent editorial in
"El Diario de Caracas" warned of a future without skilled
Venezuelans. Former opposition consensus Presidential
candidate Manuel Rosales recently exhorted Venezuelans to not
emigrate, but rather remain in the country to defend it.
While the brain drain is hurting Venezuela, it may in turn be
helping Chavez by hollowing out the groups that have opposed
him.
¶15. (SBU) The parallel exchange rate spiked after Chavez'
proclamations in January (reftel) and many attribute part of
the continuing high demand for dollars to increased capital
flight as people have begun to move funds out of the country
CARACAS 00000531 004.2 OF 004
while still possible. Rumblings of new laws to tax wealth,
take away second homes, and prevent children from traveling
abroad without express government approval all add to the
pervasive anxiety and fear amongst the middle and upper
classes and hasten the desire to emigrate.
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶16. (SBU) The dramatic image of thousands of Venezuelans
scrambling to nail down their "Plan B" speaks to a pervasive
sentiment among Venezuela's middle and upper classes that
things have reached a turning point here. For many, the
change came with Chavez's re-election in December and was
reinforced by the Marxist rhetoric of recent weeks. That
said, many are just preparing their exit rather than actually
using the escape hatch. The economic situation remains
decent, with windfall oil profits fueling massive government
spending. These "good times," though, are tempered by
spiraling violent crime and continual BRV encroachment on
private businesses and citizens. As has been the case of
immigrants for centuries, many will leave in the hopes of
giving their children better opportunities. Should these
thousands of educated, talented Venezuelans actually leave,
one effect will be a freer hand for Chavez to create the
centralized authoritarian state he desires.
¶17. (SBU) The brain drain will hurt U.S. companies here as
they lose their most skilled and marketable workers and
Venezuela already is becoming a no-go zone for many expats
due to a security concerns and an ever-degrading
infrastructure. Embassy Caracas is experiencing this
phenomenon, having recently seen several of its locally
employed staff (LES) emigrating and with many more LES
actively whispering their plans to depart. END COMMENT.
BROWNFIELD