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Viewing cable 09NDJAMENA70, CHAD ELECTIONS UNLIKELY BEFORE 2010
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09NDJAMENA70 | 2009-03-04 17:02 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ndjamena |
VZCZCXRO9583
RR RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #0070/01 0631702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041702Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6760
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0545
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000070
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR POL: LORD
PARIS FOR POL: D'ELIA AND KANEDA
ADDIS ALSO FOR USAU
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PREF EU FR AU CD
SUBJECT: CHAD ELECTIONS UNLIKELY BEFORE 2010
NDJAMENA 00000070 001.2 OF 003
=======
SUMMARY
=======
¶1. (SBU) Parliamentary and local elections in Chad are
unlikely to be held until the first half of 2010, but the
Chadian parties to the electoral reform process and Chad's
key international partners remain committed to working
towards credible elections as agreed in the 2007 August 13
Accord. Although not specifically mandated by the August 13
Accord between the Government, the pro-government majority
party coalition, and the opposition minority party coalition,
the goal was for credible elections for parliament and local
government this year. Many factors have slowed progress
toward the 2009 goal, including the rebel attacks of February
and June 2008, the glacial process of working through complex
issues according to the canons of Chadian political culture,
and maneuvering for political advantage among the three sides
and for personal interest within the three parties.
¶2. (SBU) But the Chadian parties to the Accord, as well as
its international sponsors and supporters -- the European
Union, France, Germany, the UN, the Francophonie, and the
African Union -- are still committed to the continued
implementation of the electoral reform process in the hope
that the pace of progress will increase and permit
legislative and communal polling no later than mid-2010. The
August 13 Accord, though flawed and subject to delay both
from objective factors and from foot-dragging, is still the
best vehicle available for advancing a democratic agenda in
Chad. The USG should stay solidly in step with our partners,
both Chadian and international, to support the electoral
reform process and ensure the first round of elections in
early 2010. We believe that continued USG financial
assistance to the general census, and also, if possible, to
the electoral census, will be the most convincing
demonstration of our commitment to accompany Chad along the
(dusty, pot-holed, and largely unpaved) road toward better
governance and democratic political practice. END SUMMARY.
================================
BACKGROUND: THE AUGUST 13 ACCORD
================================
¶3. (U) In 2004, despite expectations that he was prepared to
step down, Chadian President Idriss Deby used his majority
support in Parliament to pass a law to amend the constitution
to eliminate presidential term limits. In 2005, a referendum
approved the amendment and Deby ran successfully for his
third five-year tem. Most of the the political opposition
parties responded by boycotting the May 2006 presidential
polls, thereby calling into question the election,s
credibility. At about the same time, key members of Deby's
inner circle and fellow members of his Zaghawa ethnic group
deserted him to join the ranks of armed Chadian rebel groups
based in - and supported by ) Sudan, bent on his violent
overthrow. Beset by internal political unrest and active
armed rebel groups based in Sudan, President Deby agreed to
negotiate with the political opposition and his own majority
party coalition in talks brokered by the European Union.
Months of negotiations, funded and facilitated by the EU,
French, and Germans, led to the signing of the August 13
Accord in Ndjamena in 2007.
¶4. (U) The August 13 Accord laid out a roadmap toward the
goal of credible communal and legislative elections in 2009
and equally credible presidential elections in 2011. The
Accord called for a new electoral code, an independent
electoral commission, two national censuses, one
"demographic" and the another "electoral," as well as a
series of political and administrative reforms to increase
democratic space and foster a political climate conducive to
credible election outcomes. In order to implement the
Accord, an electoral reform committee (Comite de Suivi et
d'Appui) was established, composed of equal numbers of voting
members from the MPS majority and the CPDC opposition party
coalitions, and non-voting government representatives in an
advisory capacity.
=====================
WAR DISRUPTS PROGRESS
=====================
¶5. (U) From August 2007 until February 2008, implementation
of the Accord was painfully slow. The Committee was formed
and adopted a set of working procedures. Discussions began
on all of the various issues to be addressed. But progress
stopped dead in late February 2008, when rebels attacked
N,Djamena and battled Deby's troops in the streets. This
NDJAMENA 00000070 002.2 OF 003
attack and its aftermath disrupted political and
administrative operations, and the government was not fully
functional for weeks, as retreating rebels and local looters
vandalized government buildings, private businesses, and
homes alike, destroying infrastructure, archives and records.
What is more, the opposition CPDC suspended its
participation in the Committee,s work, in protest over
heavy-handed GOC repression in the wake of the attack. Among
other actions, the government arrested and detained
opposition leaders, including Lol Mahamat Choa, the
Committee,s head. The CPDC returned to the Committee in
May, after an independent Commission of Inquiry investigated
the February events and issued a report detailing the abuses
committed by GOC security forces.
====================================
VESTED INTERESTS AND LACK OF URGENCY
====================================
¶6. (SBU) When the Committee resumed its work in May, progress
on implementation of the Accord was slow and difficult, due
to maneuvering for political and personal advantage by the
three sides. For example, upon receiving draft laws to
establish the electoral commission and the electoral code
from the Committee, the National Assembly changed the text
before approving the laws - even though half the voting
members of the Committee are majority party members who could
have incorporated the majority's wishes into the original
text. These changes prompted objections by the opposition
members of the Committee, further delaying implementation of
the laws.
================================
LAWS NOT THE ONLY STICKING POINT
================================
¶7. (U) In addition to finalizing the legal framework for the
elections and establishing an electoral commission, other key
pre-election tasks remain incomplete. The August 13 Accord
require both a general census and an electoral census
conducted with biometric measures to deter fraud. Both
censuses are behind schedule due to delays in acquiring
equipment and reduced efficiency during the rainy season, the
head of the Census Bureau told the press last week, and could
not be completed to set the stage for elections before 2010.
¶8. (SBU) The Committee itself moved slowly in response to the
opposition's latest objections. When the opposition members
on the Committee complained in mid-January 2009, the session
was suspended - and did not resume for five weeks. When the
Committee finally reconvened in late February, it decided to
form a panel to examine the issue and report back to the full
Committee, despite the urging of observers, including the
European Union, the Africa Union, France, and Germany, to act
more quickly. The Committee,s leisurely operational pace
reflected as always the canons of Chad,s political culture.
A week later, the panel reported to the full Committee that
it was deadlocked. Attempts by the French, German, and EU
diplomatic observers to resolve the stalemate were not
immediately successful.
================
WHAT'S THE RUSH?
================
¶9. (SBU) All three parties to the Accord have found reasons
to drag their feet in this process. The GOC and President
Deby are in no hurry for the planned elections and have not
pushed the electoral reform process forcefully because he is
in the Palace and his party controls Parliament. Also, he
can justify his action ) or lack of it ) to the need for
the Executive to concentrate on defense of the country
against clear and present threats from Sudan-based nd
Khartoum-supported Chad rebels. The rebel grups, in fact,
did obligingly attack again in fore in June 2008, but were
contained by the Chadian army and defeated in eastern Chad,
whence they retreated into Sudan. Despite the signature of a
bilateral Peace Accord in Dakar in March 2008, Chad-Sudan
relations remained tense, and worsened when Chad-based
Sudanese rebels attacked Khartoum in May. The MPS majority
party coalition likewise is in no hurry to go to elections.
It already controls Parliament and makes the laws. Its
Parliamentary deputies enjoy all the perquisites of power,
including their handsome salaries and benefits. It is
confident of winning the planned elections, but is agnostic
on the actual date of those elections. Finally, the CPDC
minority coalition also does not always feel the urgency of
NDJAMENA 00000070 003.2 OF 003
progress toward elections that it believes it will lose in
any case. Meanwhile its deputies receive their salaries and
benefits until that election takes place. It should be noted
that all members of the Committee itself receive an
additional emolument, which they will lose when elections
happen, an additional motive for restraint on their part.
====================================
EU, FRENCH STILL SUPPORT THE PROCESS
====================================
¶10. (SBU) Given the state of affairs and based on prior
experience with the Chadian parties, the European Union and
the French, who have been the most active and concrete
supporters of the process, recently have started to admit
privately that Chad will not hold elections in 2009. But
they are unwilling to give up on the August 13 Accord process
itself and will continue to work with and support the Chadian
parties on the road to communal and legislative elections in
the first half of 2010. Other international supporters of the
process ) Germany, the UN, the AU, the Francophonie, all
agree with the EU and French on this.
=======
COMMENT
=======
¶11. (SBU) It is unfortunate that communal and legislative
elections look to be delayed until 2010. But it is good that
progress toward them continues, though more slowly than we
would like. The August 13 Accord is still the best vehicle
available for advancing a democratic agenda in Chad. The USG
should stay solidly in step with our partners, both Chadian
and international, to support and encourage the electoral
reform process and to ensure the first round of elections in
early 2010. We believe that continued USG financial
assistance to the general census, and also, if possible, to
the electoral census, will be the most convincing
demonstration of our commitment to accompany Chad along the
(dusty, pot-holed, and largely unpaved) road toward better
governance and democratic political practice. As we wait for
the Committee to hear from its panel, we will remain in
contact with other observers to consider a coordinated
response when and if the Government of Chad announces
elections will not take place this year. END COMMENT.
NIGRO