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Viewing cable 06TELAVIV1193, ISRAELI-ARAB PARTIES APPEAR SET TO REMAIN ON

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TELAVIV1193 2006-03-27 14:44 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tel Aviv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI-ARAB PARTIES APPEAR SET TO REMAIN ON 
PARLIAMENTARY MAP (C-NE6-00442) 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: Recent polls show that rising Israeli-Arab 
interest in the March 28 elections, possibly prompted by 
fears of a growing right-wing Jewish vote, may yield up to 10 
Knesset seats for Israeli-Arab parties, up two seats from the 
current Knesset.  Until this past week, polls have projected 
low Israeli-Arab turnout, but a poll released March 24 shows 
that turnout among Israeli-Arab voters would be 69 percent if 
elections were held today, a percentage higher than in the 
2003 Knesset election, and higher than that projected for the 
general public.  End summary. 
 
-------------------- 
Voter Turnout is Key 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Israel's some one-million Arab population, which 
makes up about 20 percent of Israel's population, includes 
about 550,000-600,000 eligible voters, a relatively low 
proportion that is due to the Arab sector's large youth 
population.  Those Israeli-Arab voters constitute only about 
12 percent of Israel's total of approximately five million 
eligible voters.  In addition, while some 70-80 percent of 
these Israeli-Arab voters cast ballots for Arab parties in 
the past two elections, the remaining voters cast their 
ballots for non-Arab parties.  A new law requiring that 
political parties obtain two percent of the overall vote to 
obtain Knesset representation, rather than the 1.5 percent 
required in the past, has presented a challenge to the three 
major Israeli-Arab parties -- United Arab List (UAL, 
Islamist), Balad (Arab Nationalist), and Hadash (Jewish-Arab) 
-- all of which are represented in the current Knesset. 
Despite similar platforms that each call for the creation of 
a Palestinian state and for equality between Jews and Arabs 
within Israel, the three have resisted calls from the Arab 
public that they unite under a single party list.  As a 
result, until recently, polls have shown that they risked 
splitting the Arab vote so much that none of them would get 
enough votes to pass the threshold.  Arab community leaders 
charge party leaders with allowing their egos to stand in the 
way of unification. 
 
3.  (SBU) As Dr. Elie Rekhess of Tel Aviv University's Dayan 
Center told a forum on the Israeli-Arab electorate March 21, 
a low Jewish voter turnout, such as that projected for the 
coming election, presents opportunities, but the Israeli-Arab 
sector has been, at least until recently, suffering from its 
own voter apathy problems.  Accordingly, Israeli-Arab 
political leaders must get out their people if they are to 
benefit from the anticipated low Jewish-voter turnout.  The 
Arab voter turnout has been lower than the overall turnout in 
the last five Knesset elections, with 2003 bringing a 
particularly high gap between the Arab and overall turnouts. 
Some 62 percent of Israeli Arabs voted in the 2003 Knesset 
election, down 13 percent from the 1999 Knesset elections and 
15 percent from the 1996 election, and well below even the 
near record low 68 percent of the overall electorate in the 
2003 election.  The Israeli-Arab parties also face a 
continuing, although apparently flagging challenge from the 
long-standing elements that call for Israeli-Arab boycott of 
all national elections. 
 
4.  (SBU) A March 24 poll indicates, however, that the recent 
trend of lower than average Israeli-Arab participation thus 
far may have shifted.  The poll shows that were elections to 
be held today, some 69 percent of the Israeli-Arab electorate 
would vote.  This poll and others released March 24 show that 
were elections to be held today, the three Arab parties, 
running separately, would win a total of nine or ten Knesset 
seats, up from the eight seats indicated in earlier polls and 
from their showing in the last election.  Observers attribute 
the turnaround to at least two factors: the growth of Avigdor 
Lieberman's far-right Yisrael Beiteinu party, which calls for 
re-arranging borders to exclude Israeli-Arabs from Israel, 
and the recognition that the combination of low Israeli-Arab 
turnout and the new higher threshold for Knesset seats could 
preclude any Arab parties from winning seats.  Rekhess 
suggested that these reasons accounted for the recent 
announcement by Umm el-Fahm Mayor and Northern Islamic 
Movement leader Hashem Abdul-Rahman that he intends to vote. 
The Northern Islamic Movement has traditionally advocated 
boycotting national elections.  Hanna Swaid, who is number 
two on the Hadash list, claimed to Poloff March 23 that the 
combination of Rahman's decision and concern about 
Lieberman's popularity will increase voter turnout in the 
Arab "triangle" towns, of which Umm el-Fahm is the largest, 
that are home to 25 percent of Israel's Arab population. 
 
5.  (SBU) Swaid said that the Northern Islamic Movement is 
not urging a boycott of the elections this year, as it has in 
the past.  The director of the Mossawa Advocacy Center for 
Arab Citizens of Israel, Jafah Farah, told Poloff March 7 
that some members of the Northern Islamic movement are, in 
fact, actively participating in the election campaign.  Swaid 
said that Hadash's "get Umm el-Fahm in the Knesset" campaign, 
as well as the fact that an Umm el-Fahm resident is number 
four on Hadash's Knesset list, may be resonating with that 
community.  Mayor Rahman assessed that Hadash would get the 
highest number of votes in Umm el-Fahm. 
 
6.  (SBU) Swaid also said that the Arab parties are doing 
more this year to get out the vote on election day.  He said 
Hadash plans to spend 20-30 percent of its NIS one million 
(USD 210,000) total campaign budget on getting out the vote 
on election day.  "We've also made practical arrangements for 
election day.  We're providing transportation.  For the first 
time, (leaders of the Arab parties) developed a joint 
committee in each town...(to work) on this issue.  This sort 
of cooperation has never happened before.  We realize that 
not enough people might vote, and (we) would rather they show 
up and vote for a rival Arab party than not vote at all." 
 
------------------------- 
The "Zionist" Competition 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) With the fractious Arab parties consistently 
excluded from governing coalitions, and a feeling by some 
Israeli Arabs that their own leaders do little for their 
communities, some 20 percent of Israeli Arab voters in the 
last two elections cast ballots for left-leaning Jewish 
majority or "Zionist" parties, principally Labor and Meretz, 
for the social-welfare-oriented and ultra-orthodox Shas 
party, and even in thin numbers for Likud.  That support for 
Zionist parties may be challenged this year.  Dr. Rekhess 
said that he does not recall an election campaign "where the 
Arab parties invested so much energy against the Zionist 
parties and on getting out the vote."  According to a study 
Rekhess released last November, nearly half of the Arab 
electorate would have voted for the non-Arab parties had 
elections been held at that time, with over one third of 
those votes going to Labor and many to a Sharon-led Kadima. 
The March 24 poll, however, shows that as high as 80 percent 
of the Arab electorate would vote for one of the Arab parties 
if elections were held today.  The poll shows that Labor, 
Kadima, Meretz and Likud would split the remaining 20 percent 
of those voting, winning about nine, six, two, and 1.5 
percent respectively.  (Note: The pollster noted these were 
approximate percentages.  End note.) 
 
8.  (SBU) The mayor of the Arab village of Sakhnin, Sami 
Eisa, and Rahman, both assessed to Poloff in separate 
meetings in February and March, respectively, that only about 
20 percent of voters in their communities would support the 
"Zionist" parties this time around.  Eisa, who said he had at 
one time been close to joining Kadima, dismissed the pull of 
Kadima in his community as ephemeral.  Eisa said that soon 
after Kadima's creation last November, he and other Arab 
mayors had engaged in negotiations with then-PM Sharon on 
joining Kadima, but that negotiations fell apart after 
Sharon's hospitalization.  According to Rahman, "Kadima made 
a historic mistake" by not placing any Israeli Arabs in 
realistic positions on the Kadima list.  Kadima has included 
one member of the Druze sect, which the majority of Israeli 
Arabs do not consider as representative of their interests, 
and placed its first Israeli Arab in the number 51 slot. 
 
 
 
9.  (SBU) Israel has never in its 58-year history had a 
governing coalition that included Israeli-Arab political 
parties, although such Israeli-Arab parties consistently win 
some Knesset seats.  Both the Jewish public and Jewish 
political leaders acknowledge openly that for passage of all 
most-significant legislation, such as that related to the 
Palestinians and the budget, the votes that constitute the 
threshold Knesset majority must be comprised exclusively of 
votes by Jewish Knesset members.  Dr. Rekhess, Hanna Swaid, 
and Abir Kopty, a spokesperson for the Mossawa Advocacy 
Center for Arab Citizens who also spoke at the March 21 
forum, asserted that a feeling of disappointment nonetheless 
lingers among the Israeli-Arab electorate that Arab parties 
have not looked out for the interests of the Arab sector in 
general.  Kopty said that because the Arab parties have never 
been in the government, many Israeli Arabs view their 
influence as limited.  Rekhess said that Labor Party Chairman 
Amir Peretz's commitment to appoint an Israeli-Arab minister, 
and Labor's placement of three Israeli Arabs in realistic 
places on its Knesset list, and Peretz's overall left-leaning 
economic policies appeals to some Arab voters. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
JONES