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Viewing cable 09BEIJING151, CHINA ANNOUNCES STEEL AND AUTO INDUSTRY SUPPORT PLANS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09BEIJING151 | 2009-01-16 11:45 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Beijing |
VZCZCXRO8795
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #0151/01 0161145
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161145Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1905
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000151
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD AND KEMP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EIND EMIN ECON SENV CH
SUBJECT: CHINA ANNOUNCES STEEL AND AUTO INDUSTRY SUPPORT PLANS
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The State Council approved industrial support
plans for the auto and steel sectors on January 14, the first two of
ten industry focused plans to help those sectors hardest hit by the
economic slowdown. The measures will support domestic demand,
protect employment and promote environmental protection in two of
China's largest industries. Auto and steel industry representatives
welcomed the announcement, but analysts for both sectors expressed
doubts about the success of accelerated consolidation without
addressing more systemic problems. A provision to stabilize China's
international market share in steel will be watched closely by
foreign producers wary of export promotion. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (SBU) At the January 14 State Council meeting, Premier Wen Jiabao
approved industrial revitalization plans for the auto and steel
sectors. These plans are the second phase of the Government's
comprehensive economic support plan, which include the already
announced RMB 4 trillion stimulus and an expected technology
investment plan. The measures announced by the Ministry of Industry
and Information Technology (MIIT) are intended to stimulate domestic
demand and employment, but also contain provisions for environmental
and technology improvements. While the announcement outlines the
type of actions which will be taken, specific details remain to be
clarified. Additional support plans are expected to cover ten key
industries, including ship building, chemicals, textiles, machinery,
and property.
Auto Plan Aims to Spur Consumption, Innovation
--------------------------------------------- -
¶3. (SBU) The five-part auto industry support plan includes the
following measures: 1) a reduction in the sales tax on vehicles
with engines smaller than 1.6 liters from 10 percent to 5 percent
and a 5 billion RMB subsidy to encourage farmers to upgrade their
low-end vehicles, 2) support for industry consolidation, 3) a 10
billion RMB special fund to promote technical innovation, 4)
subsidies to encourage the development of environmentally-friendly
cars, and 5) support for the development of proprietary brands and
the building of auto and parts export bases. According to Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Institute of Industrial Economics
Researcher Zhao Ying, the subsidies to the auto industry will be
funded by both the central government and local governments.
Focus on Stimulating Domestic Consumption
-----------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) CASS's Zhao said the short-term goal of the auto industry
support package is to respond to the current economic slowdown by
increasing domestic consumption. He said the poor performance of
China's stock market in 2008 impacted car sales. Many middle class
families changed their consumption habits because of income effects,
and the growth rate of car sales slowed to 7 percent in 2008 after
years of more than 20 percent growth. Nevertheless, he predicted
that the recent slowdown in auto sales is temporary. He said the
huge domestic market will ensure that car sales will grow in the
long term.
Protecting Employment and Environment are Key Goals
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶5. (SBU) Zhao said one of the primary goals of the auto support plan
is to protect employment. NDRC and China Auto Industry Yearbook
reported in 2007 that auto and auto parts manufacturing and services
provided roughly 30 million jobs in China. Protecting these jobs is
important for maintaining social stability, Zhao noted. He said the
Government is also aiming to protect the environment by reducing the
sales tax on vehicles with smaller engines and encouraging the
development of environmentally-friendly cars.
Doubts about Auto Industry Consolidation
----------------------------------------
¶6. (SBU) In spite of the Government's plan to promote industry
consolidation, Embassy contacts expressed doubts. CASS's Zhao said
that he is "not optimistic" about the prospects of auto industry
consolidation. He said car factories, as a "backbone" of local
economies and major contributor to employment and tax revenue,
receive strong support from local governments. Zhao predicted that
local governments will be reluctant to support consolidation and
that most car companies will survive the economic slowdown. He also
noted that the enormous Chinese market is conducive to many
companies producing different vehicles for many different customer
segments. GM Asia Pacific Public Policy Director David Tulauskas
said the Central Government hopes that the economic downturn will
push the industry into greater consolidation through bankruptcy but
acknowledged that local governments will continue to find ways to
support their local auto producers.
Industry Response: GM Welcomes Support Plan
-------------------------------------------
¶7. (SBU) Tulauskas told EconOff that GM's overall response to the
industry support measures is positive. He said that GM provided
input directly to the NDRC and Ministry of Finance and through the
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The Central
BEIJING 00000151 002 OF 002
Government asked GM detailed questions about what other governments
around the world were doing to support the auto industry. Several
of GM's recommendations were accepted by the Government, including
the decisions to cut the sales tax by 50 percent on smaller vehicles
and to set a clear end date for the tax incentive to create a sense
of urgency. GM believes this large tax incentive should be enough
to effectively encourage more vehicle consumption.
¶8. (SBU) Tulauskas said that the 10 billion RMB fund established to
spur development of new energy efficient and environmentally
friendly vehicles was also a "step in the right direction, and the
United States should take it seriously." He said that this large
amount of money could put China well on the way to becoming a leader
in green vehicles. According to Tulauskas, MOFCOM assured GM that
it would be able to apply for this funding on a footing equal with
domestic companies. However, he noted the need to get more details
on how the fund will be managed before determining its value to GM.
¶9. (SBU) Regarding the 5 billion RMB fiscal subsidy to help farmers
scrap old "vehicles" and buy new vehicles with engines smaller than
1.3 liters, Tulauskas said that GM would likely benefit "greatly"
from this measure through its joint venture with Wuling Auto, which
produces a range of minivans and small trucks. However, he noted
that the provision was not fully clear and would likely be left up
to the local governments to determine eligibility for the subsidy.
He also said that local governments have been instructed to relax
requirements on licensing, particularly licensing fees, but noted
that the effect of this measure will be a mixed bag as local
governments will likely implement in a variety of ways.
Government Plans to Control Steel Production
--------------------------------------------
¶10. (SBU) The steel industry measures are intended to control
production, close down out-dated facilities and further consolidate
the industry structure. They will include policies to promote
mergers and acquisitions and a special infrastructure fund to
stimulate technological investment. In an attempt to address
industry over-capacity, for the first time there will be a freeze on
new production facilities and the government will work to stabilize
Chinese steel makers' export market share by adjusting export taxes.
Additional measures will modify the iron ore import process,
restructure the sales of steel products, and help to distribute
industry risk.
Measures Welcomed; But Consolidation Will Be Tough
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶11. (SBU) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) Deputy General
Secretary Zhang Jingang welcomed the announcement, which he said
reflected input from industry and which replaces a failed attempt to
mop up excess supply through a Government stockpile. But industry
media report unnamed steel mill sources are underwhelmed and have
expressed doubts about the Government's ability to speed up closures
of outdated facilities. Steel industry expert Professor Lu Tie of
CASS Institute of Industrial Economics says the current low level of
consolidation is consistent with an industry in the early phase of
development. He considers the Government's consolidation targets
ambitious and believes progress will be hampered by China's fiscal
and tax system.
We've Heard this Consolidation Song Before...
--------------------------------------------
¶12. (SBU) The Government has long supported steel industry
consolidation. Yet China's top 10 producers currently account for
only 38 percent of total domestic production, versus 88 percent in
the U.S. The reality was that even favored, state-owned firms found
it difficult to achieve the scale benefits of mergers as powerful
municipal and provincial interests sought to protect their ownership
rights, tax revenues and local employment base. The 2005
Anshan-Benxi merger, for example, was delayed several years due to
Benxi City Government's feared loss of 70 percent of its tax
revenue.
¶13. (SBU) COMMENT. U.S. auto makers with established production
bases in China are likely to benefit from the auto industry
measures. But efforts to stabilize Chinese steel makers' export
market share will be closely watched by U.S. and other foreign
producers who will be wary of export promotion in the guise of a
domestic support plan. With the economic slowdown, the timing of
accelerated consolidation in both steel and autos would at first
glance appear opportune, but more fundamental policy and structural
issues will continue to frustrate these efforts. END COMMENT.
RANDT