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Viewing cable 06LIMA658, HUMALA DOWN BUT STILL AHEAD IN PUNO
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06LIMA658 | 2006-02-16 21:49 | 2011-05-18 12:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Lima |
Appears in these articles: elcomercio.pe |
VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHPE #0658/01 0472149
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 162149Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8767
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2992
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6516
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9089
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0032
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0198
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 000658
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER PHUM PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA DOWN BUT STILL AHEAD IN PUNO
REF: A. LIMA 307
¶B. DRAFT 2005 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT
¶C. 05 LIMA 3267
--------
Summary:
----...
id: 53363
date: 2/16/2006 21:49
refid: 06LIMA658
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: UNCLASSIFIED
destination: 06LIMA307
header:
VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHPE #0658/01 0472149
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 162149Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8767
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2992
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6516
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9089
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0032
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0198
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
----------------- header ends ----------------
UNCLAS LIMA 000658
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER PHUM PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA DOWN BUT STILL AHEAD IN PUNO
REF: A. LIMA 307
¶B. DRAFT 2005 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT
¶C. 05 LIMA 3267
--------
Summary:
--------
¶1. A recent trip to Puno provided insights into
ultra-nationalist, radical, anti-system candidate Ollanta
Humala's support in this rural and traditionally more radical
region of Peru (Ref C). Humala's popularity in Puno has been
dented but not fatally damaged by political problems within
his party and recent revelations that he may be guilty of
human rights violations. Despite these, in areas outside the
city of Puno, Humala remains the candidate of choice for
impoverished small agriculturalists who long for an
authoritarian "tough guy" leader in the mold of former
President Fujimori, someone who can get things done and
produce favors for farmers. End Summary.
¶2. Poloff interviewed a variety of local contacts during a
2/10-2/12 trip to Puno with visiting Washington analysts.
The trip focused on Ollanta Humala's level of support in this
rural, historically radical region. Those interviewed
included: representatives of the regional government (Hugo
Munoz Guerra and Victor Ciro Quispe Nina); the Dean of the
local Journalists Association (Leoncio Aleman); the Rector of
the National University of the Highlands (Martha Tapia); two
representatives of the local NGO "Network Peru" (Jorge Romero
and Javier Molina); a representative of the Catholic Church
affiliated, pro-farmer NGO the Center for Peasant Training
(CCCP) (Ricardo Vega); and the director of a USDOL financed
program to promote early childhood education and fight child
labor (Ernesto Garcia). All know the Puno region well and
offered insights into the politics of this rural region
likely to be a bastion of support for Humala.
------------------------------------
Ollanta Down But Not Necessarily Out
------------------------------------
¶3. Recent problems within the Union for Peru (UPP) and
Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) alliance as well as
revelations about possible human rights violations have hurt
Humala's support. Most observers interviewed thought that
Humala had peaked too early and would not win the presidency.
Chaos in Humala's party structure has undercut his
credibility as both a figure who could bring order and as a
non-traditional "Mr. Clean" outsider. Leoncio Aleman pointed
out that in Puno both the UPP and the PNP were submitting
separate congressional lists. More than one observer cited
the presence of a well-known local political opportunist,
Juan Jose Vega, on Humala's initial congressional ticket
(Vega has since been pulled from the list) as the kind of
association that had compromised Humala's image with local
voters. For Puno voters, the image of chaos in Humala's
political party has done him far more damage than accusations
of human rights violations. All contacts agreed that Puno
voters are not interested in democracy, but instead long for
a Fujimori-like strong man who can bring order and get things
done.
-------------------------------------
Durable Elements in Humala's Support
-------------------------------------
¶4. While Humala has problems within his organization, has
made some bad associations, and his campaign presents a
picture of chaos, most of those interviewed emphasized that
his support has durable elements, particularly with rural
small farmers. Jorge Romero, stressed the long-term
groundwork laid by Ollanta Humala's brother, Antauro, over
the last five years. Romero described how many male children
from rural families go into the army for at least one tour,
pass through the military and then return to their home
villages and cannot find a job. The Ethnocaceristas, he
said, wisely targeted this demographic in forming the ranks
of their uniformed "reservists," who have spent the last five
years selling the newspaper "Ollanta" throughout the
countryside. (Note: After the alleged break between Ollanta
and his brothers Antauro and Ulises Humala, the newspaper was
renamed "Antauro." End Note.) The "reservist" label
provided a job of sorts (selling the newspaper on commission)
and, above all, a self-esteem boosting identity as a foot
soldier in a pro-coca, pro-cobrizo (person of indigenous
background), ultra-nationalist movement for young campesino
men who had recently finished military service. Local
contacts said that two or three reservists from Puno
participated in Antauro Humala's 2005 New Year's Eve Revolt
in Andahuaylas and several others in the Humala Brothers'
earlier rebellion in 2000.
¶5. Humala has inherited a strong legacy of local support for
former President Alberto Fujimori. In the countryside, "El
Chino" (Peruvians ethnic-nickname for Fujimori) remains very
popular, remembered for regular visits that left gifts of
tractors to local communities and for having overseen the
construction of paved roads between both Puno and Cusco and
Puno and Arequipa, according to Hugo Munoz and Ciro Quispe.
While questions about Hulala's character have surfaced in
news reports on television and in radio, the anti-system
voters have no place else to go and tend to reflexively
distrust the judgments of the Lima media. Martha Chavez has
only captured a part of the local anti-system vote so far,
because Fujimori is the person Puno farmers most closely
associate with tough-guy leadership as well as government
benevolence.
¶6. Questioned about the possibility that the candidacy of
Ulises Humala (Ollanta's older brother) for President might
cut into Ollanta's vote, local contacts said that anti-system
voters do not care about the split between the Humala
Brothers. They are convinced that this is a tactical
maneuver for the election and see a vote for Ollanta as a
vote for change. Journalist Leoncio Aleman noted a possible
weakness in Ollanta Humala's local advertising, which does
not stress his party's symbol. He said some rural voters
might become confused between the two and split their votes
by accident.
--------------
The Evo Effect
--------------
¶7. Puno is tied closely to Bolivia. Smuggling from Bolivia
is one of the main economic activities and many local Aymara
speakers consider themselves to be part of a common
Bolivian-Peruvian ethnic "nation." As such, our local
contacts emphasized that Evo Morales' win in Bolivia created
a wave of pro-indigenous feeling that benefits Humala. Rural
Puno voters, University of the Highlands Dean Martha Tapia
stressed, are quite racist in their thinking. (Tapia is a
trained veterinarian who works in rural areas.) They resent
anyone who is a "misti" (i.e. a white person from the
cities). They see Ollanta Humala as a "misti" as well, but
as one who understands their problems.
--------------------------
Some Radical Recrudescence
--------------------------
¶8. Sendero Luminoso is making a comeback in some rural
areas, according to Tapia. She spoke with frustration about
how a small number of radical students (maximum 500 of a
total student population of 15,000) can cripple her
university at will with the aid of politically extremist
sympathizers on the faculty. Tapia related how during
travels into the countryside she has heard that Sendero
Luminoso is regrouping in rural areas. When asked to provide
details, she conceded that she could not, stating that "there
are certain things one doesn't ask about" while working in
remote regions. Tapia maintained that Sendero's new strategy
is non-violent, and involves penetrating organizations to
ensure that nothing works, so that people are driven to
search for radical alternatives.
---------------------------------------------
Humala Predominates, But Puno Not Locked Down
---------------------------------------------
¶9. Humala remains the candidate of choice for many rural
voters in this historically radical region. Nonetheless,
cracks in his support could open some inroads for other
candidates. A visit by Humala to Puno two weeks ago did not
produce an overwhelming turnout. About two hundred of his
followers crowded the local plaza, the rest of the crowd made
up of the curious. Alan Garcia attracted a similar sized
crowd during an earlier visit, and many local women in the
city of Puno are attracted to Lourdes Flores' candidacy.
¶10. Leoncio Aleman thought that Garcia could recover support
in Puno. Ricardo Vega agreed, stating that Garcia is
remembered for having distributed land to campesinos in the
1980s. (Though this policy ultimately proved economically
disastrous, creating many nonviable, tiny land holdings, in
popular memory Garcia still gets points for handing out land
titles.) All interviewed emphasized that rural voters are
looking for the candidate who will do something for them, who
will provide credits, build roads, or promote programs that
favor the region's small farmers, many of whom live off
intermittent comercial activity (like smuggling) and work
tiny inherited plots of land to provide sustenance for their
families.
------------------------
Congressional Candidates
------------------------
¶11. Leoncio Aleman and others pedicted politically
fragmented results in congressional elections for Puno. A
likely winner is incumbent Congress member Jhonny Lezcano,
who is seen by locals as having done a good job. (Note: the
Puno Congressional Delegation was not noted for its
statesmanship. One member, Congress Representative Torres
Ccalla, was recently sentenced to eight years in prison for
moving an underage staffer to Lima so that he could exploit
her sexually -- Refs A, B. End Note.) Lezcano represented
the Popular Accion Party (AP) and is now running in the
number one spot on presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua's
list. Aleman was convinced that the other parties would
split up the rest of the seats, with Lourdes Flores, Alan
Garcia, Valentin Paniagua, and Humala's candidates dividing
the remainder of the seats.
---------------------------------
Comment: Humala's Hidden Support?
---------------------------------
¶12. Puno's poverty and tradition of anti-system radicalism
make the area a key potential base for Ollanta Humala.
Stories about chaos in Humala's campaign and, to a far lesser
degree, revelations about human rights violations have dented
but certainly not fatally damaged his local support. It
remains to be seen if Humala's recent actions to purge his
congressional list (he recently replaced 13 candidates of
questionable character) will enable him to regain lost ground
by proving his credentials as the kind of saloon-clearing,
authoritarian "tough guy" that rural protest voters in Puno
and other areas are seeking. Since many Humala voters live
in remote areas, opinion polls could underestimate possible
additional support for Peru's ultra-nationalist, anti-system
candidate. End Comment.
POWERS
=======================CABLE ENDS============================