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Viewing cable 06TELAVIV1049, WITHOUT ARIK, MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING VOTERS SEEK

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TELAVIV1049 2006-03-15 14:46 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tel Aviv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: WITHOUT ARIK, MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING VOTERS SEEK 
STRENGTH IN LIEBERMAN 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 480 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary and comment: Israel's Russian-speaking 
electorate, which numbers close to one million, represents 
one of the most important target populations in the upcoming 
elections, one that could determine an allocation of some 15 
to 20 of the 120 Knesset seats, according to academics and 
pollsters.  Experts stress that Russian speakers are drawn to 
parties with strong, right-leaning leaders that have a 
concrete plan for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian 
conflict.  Other evidence shows, however, that the largest 
single bloc of Russian voters has consistently gone to the 
party winning the most votes in the national elections. 
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, for instance, took the majority 
of the Russian-speaking vote in the 2003 elections because of 
his strong, right-leaning character.  Without Sharon, 
however, Kadima's support in this sector stands at 17-20 
percent, while about one third of Russian-speaking voters 
have embraced Moldovan-born Avigdor Lieberman's 
right-of-center Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel, Our Home") party. 
Experts assess that Likud currently has about 12-14 percent 
support among Russian speakers, that some 14-17 percent of 
this sector is undecided, and that an additional 14 percent 
are decided but wavering.  In the two weeks before the 
elections, the major parties are targeting Russian speakers 
with clever Russian-language ads and special candidate 
appearances in a bid to win over the undecideds.  Current 
polls show Yisrael Beiteinu winning nine to 10 Knesset seats 
-- in contrast to the total of seven seats it received as 
part of the National Union party list in the 2003 elections. 
If those numbers hold, Lieberman's party will be a force to 
be reckoned with in its own right, either as part of a 
right-wing opposition along with Likud and the National Union 
party, or, as part of a Kadima-Labor coalition.  One expert 
assessed that A/PM Olmert's decision to order the IDF's 
successful raid on the Jericho prison will help Kadima 
maintain its current support among the Russian-speaking 
electorate.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Wanted: Strong, Hawkish Leader 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU) Dr. Eliezer Feldman, director of the 
Russian-speakers department of the Mutagim Institute polling 
company, Dr. Ze'ev Khanin, professor of Political Science at 
Bar Ilan University, and Mina Zemach of the Dahaf Polling 
Institute met separately with Poloff March 7, 8 and 9, 
respectively, to discuss the role of Russian-speaking voters 
in the upcoming elections.  Feldman, who has been conducting 
regular polls and focus groups among Russian-speaking voters, 
and Khanin, who also serves as a political commentator in the 
Russian-speaking media, are both Russian-speaking immigrants 
themselves.  Feldman and Khanin assessed that there are 
700,000-750,000 Russian-speaking voters in Israel, of whom 
some 60 percent will actually vote.  That 60 percent 
represents about 15 percent of those Israelis who actually 
vote.  Their analyses of the Russian-speaking electorate, 
along with that of Zemach, closely tracked one another. 
 
3.  (SBU) The three experts echoed the view that the 
Russian-speaking electorate is basically right-leaning on 
both economic and security issues, which accounted for the 
majority of Russian-speaking support enjoyed by Ariel Sharon. 
 Ma'ariv journalist Nadav Eyal added in a March 13 article 
that the majority of the Russian-speaking electorate has 
typically sided with the ultimate winner.  "In all the 
elections over the last 12 years, the new immigrants forecast 
the results.  In 1992 they went with Rabin, in 1996 they were 
charmed by Netanyahu, in 1999 they were enthused by 
Barak...and in 2001 they turned to the old general Sharon to 
provide security and stability," Eyal wrote. 
 
4.  (SBU) The three above-cited experts assessed that in the 
upcoming elections, Russian speakers will determine 15-20 of 
the 120 Knesset seats.  Feldman gauged that because the 
Russian-speaking vote is divided among several parties at 
this point, however, it will not be decisive in determining 
the next prime minister.  Khanin stressed that the 
Russian-speaking sector will, instead, play an important role 
in determining the relative strength of Kadima and Likud. 
 
5.  (SBU) Feldman, Khanin, and Zemach assessed to Poloff that 
based on recent polls, among the Russian-speaking voters: 
 
-- 30-35 percent support Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu 
(YB) party -- which would translate into actual votes 
sufficient to account for eight of the 10 seats that polls 
show the party would win if elections were held today; 
 
-- 17-20 percent support Kadima -- which would account for 
four to five of the 37-39 seats that polls show Likud would 
win if elections were held today; 
 
-- 10-14 percent support Likud -- which would account for 
three to four of 14 seats that polls show the party would win 
if elections were held today; 
 
-- only about one percent support Labor, and a negligible 
percentage supports left-of-center and secular parties; 
 
-- about 30 percent are up for grabs, with 14-17 percent of 
this number "floating votes," genuinely undecided, and the 
remainder wavering in their allegiance to a party. 
 
(Note: A Teleseker poll released March 10 in the major daily 
Ma'ariv of 304 Russian-speaking immigrants tracks these 
figures.  End note.) 
 
6.  (SBU) Feldman assessed that, had Sharon remained leader 
of Kadima, Russian speakers would have voted for the party in 
numbers sufficient to account for 10 Knesset seats, instead 
of the four to five seats now predicted.  Since Sharon's 
hospitalization January 4, many, realizing that Sharon would 
not return to politics, have shifted their support away from 
Kadima, mainly to Lieberman, according to Feldman and Khanin. 
 Russian speakers both identify with Lieberman, who is an 
immigrant from the former Soviet Union, and like his tough, 
decisive, almost macho image, according to Feldman and 
Khanin.  In contrast, the Russian speakers perceive both 
Alternate Prime Minister Olmert and Likud Chairman Netanyahu 
as weak, and, according to Feldman, as not fully accepting 
the Russian-speaking immigrant community.  Zemach added that 
Russian speakers also view Netanyahu as untrustworthy, and 
Feldman estimated that as much as 40 percent of the 
Russian-speaking electorate actually dislikes Netanyahu. 
Netanyahu, however, fared better than Olmert in the March 13 
Teleseker poll. 
 
7.  (SBU) Feldman, Zemach, and Khanin said that placement of 
Russian immigrants on the Kadima and Likud lists has not 
helped either party.  They claimed that Russian speakers view 
Russian-born Kadima MK Marina Solodkin, number six on its 
Knesset list, as a social worker, rather than a political 
leader.  He added that based on the results of one of his 
recent focus groups, Kadima would do better dispatching FM 
Tzipi Livni to the Russian-speaking street, because she is 
viewed there in a positive light and is often compared to 
former Prime Minister Golda Meir.  According to Feldman and 
Khanin, Russian speakers are not being drawn to Likud despite 
the presence of Russian immigrant Natan Sharansky and 
Ukrainian immigrant Yuli Edelstein, numbers 11 and 15 on the 
list, respectively, since neither are viewed as strong 
leaders.  Many Russian speakers who supported Sharansky's 
immigrant-oriented Yisrael b'Aliya party -- which has since 
merged with Likud -- in the last elections have shifted their 
support to Lieberman, according to Zemach. 
 
8.  (SBU) Turning to Labor, the three assessed that 
Russian-speakers feel no "chemistry" with Labor Chairman Amir 
Peretz, and that many associate his appearance, replete with 
thick mustache and salt and pepper wavy hair, and buttressed 
by Peretz's socialist-leaning economic policies, with Joseph 
Stalin.  A January 26 Jerusalem Post article quoted Labor 
campaign advisor David Kimche dismissing any hope that his 
party could attract the Russian vote.  Feldman said that 
despite the fact that more than one third of Russian speakers 
have been hurt by former Finance Minister Netanyahu's cuts in 
social benefits, they are not supporting Peretz because of 
his image and because he advocates what they perceive as 
Soviet-style economic policies. 
 
--------------------- 
Fear, A Big Motivator 
--------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Zemach asserted that the Hamas victory in the 
January 25 Palestinian Legislative council elections 
contributed even more than Sharon's departure from the scene 
to Kadima's decline in the polls among the Russian-speaking 
sector.  She said that a poll Dahaf conducted shortly after 
the Hamas victory showed that Kadima had lost two seats that 
came from the Russian-speaking electorate and went to 
Lieberman's party, because Russian speakers believe Lieberman 
can deal with Hamas.  Feldman said that according to his 
research, most Russian speakers do not want war, but want 
Israel to achieve a "smart" peace.  Zemach assessed that 
since many immigrants from the former Soviet bloc countries 
had never owned property until they came to Israel, it is 
hard for them to consider that Israel give up land. 
 
-------------- 
Show Us a Plan 
-------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Many Russian speakers support Lieberman because he 
has a concrete plan about how to address the issue of 
maintaining Israel as a Jewish, democratic state, according 
to Feldman.  In his so-called "land swap" plan, Lieberman 
proposes that Israel redraw its border with the West Bank to 
place some Israeli-Arab population centers that are close to 
the Green Line within Palestinian territory, and to include 
some Israeli settlement blocs within Israel (reftel). 
Feldman said that Lieberman's plan resonates with Russian 
speakers because, according to his research, 60 percent of 
this population believes that Israeli Arabs hate Israeli 
Jews, and the Russian speakers are thus fearful of Israeli 
Arabs (as well as Palestinians).  Zemach echoed this view.  A 
March 12 Ha'aretz article reports that Russian-speaking 
political analysts predict that Olmert's recent announcements 
about additional unilateral withdrawals to determine Israel's 
final borders will help Kadima win more Russian speaking 
voters.  Ha'aretz reported that a Russian-language Channel 9 
television broadcast on March 10 called Olmert's announcement 
a "brave step."  The article pointed out, however, that the 
Russian-speaking sector's response to Olmert's "plan" will 
not be fully known until after Kadima publicizes the plan 
during the week of March 13. 
 
---------------------- 
Courting the Undecided 
---------------------- 
 
11.  (SBU)  According to Feldman and Khanin, about 30 percent 
of Russian speakers are so-called undecided voters.  Zemach 
assessed, however, that of this 30 percent, about 14-17 
percent are truly undecided and about 14 percent are leaning 
toward a party but are not locked in.  YB's campaign ads 
feature the Russian words "Nyet (no), Nyet (no), Da (yes)" 
transliterated into Hebrew characters under the photos of 
Olmert, Likud Chairman Netanyahu, and Lieberman, 
respectively, urging Israelis how to vote in the upcoming 
elections.  Kadima and Likud have launched television and 
billboard campaigns that include Russian subtitles, and many 
of the smaller parties are also using Russian subtitles in 
their ads.  Likud, Kadima and YB are also employing outreach 
efforts to the Russian-speaking community to shore up their 
support.  Speaking to the Russian speakers' strong 
identification with Russian culture, including the younger 
generations, Lieberman has incorporated music from a 
Russian-Jewish singer popular among the Israeli 
Russian-speaking community in his website. 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
JONES