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Viewing cable 09SURABAYA123, SURABAYA B1/B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09SURABAYA123 2009-12-24 02:06 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Surabaya
VZCZCXRO4679
RR RUEHJS
DE RUEHJS #0123 3580206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240206Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0509
INFO RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0499
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0522
RHMFIUU/DHS IP BOMBING PREVENTION WASH DC
UNCLAS SURABAYA 000123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/FPP AND VO/KCC 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MTS AND CA/EX 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD ID
SUBJECT: SURABAYA B1/B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY 
 
REF: A) 09 SURABAYA 009; B) 08 SURABAYA 0103 
 
1.  Summary:  The Consular Section of U.S. Consulate General 
Surabaya recently conducted a validation study of B1/B2 visa 
issuances for the six month period between December 1, 2007 and 
May 31, 2008.  Ninety eight percent of these recipients had 
either not yet traveled or properly returned to Indonesia.  End 
Summary. 
 
Methodology 
------------------ 
2.  The validation study included all Indonesian B1/B2 visa 
recipients from December 1, 2007 to May 31, 2008, a total of 
1,465 visas.  Recipients who planned to travel within six months 
of visa issuance should have returned to Indonesia before 
electronic departure records were reviewed in September/October 
2009.  CA/FPP reviewed Department of Homeland Security (DHS) 
Arrival-Departure Information System (ADIS) and Automated 
Targeting System (ATS) departure records, and we telephoned 
recipients for whom U.S. departure records were unavailable.  In 
most cases either ADIS or ATS records provided the necessary 
data to confirm departure.  In a few cases, our phone calls 
confirmed return to Indonesia when no ADIS or ATS departure 
records were available.  We then reviewed the Consular 
Consolidated Database (CCD) records of all visa recipients who 
either overstayed (12) or adjusted status (7) in the U.S. 
Finally, we were left with 7 inconclusive/suspected overstay 
cases in which no departure records existed and phone calls were 
unsuccessful in determining their current whereabouts. 
 
Results 
--------- 
3.  Table of Findings: 
 
Non-Return:             2 percent (26 total) 
Confirmed Overstay:     0.8 percent (12 total) 
Suspected Overstay:     0.5 percent (7 total) 
Adjustment of Status:   0.5 percent (7 total) 
Confirmed Return:       73 percent (1,077 total) 
Never Traveled:         25 percent (362 total) 
Total Sample:           100 percent (1,465 total) 
 
Analysis 
---------- 
4.  Our validation study showed a non-return rate of 2 percent. 
Among the 12 confirmed overstayers, 50 percent were female and 
50 percent were male.  Additionally, 42 percent of the 12 
confirmed overstayers were single and 58 percent were married. 
The most prominent age group among the 12 confirmed overstayers 
were applicants more than 40 years of age, accounting for 66 
percent of overstays.  Among the total of 12 confirmed 
overstayers, 25 percent had previously traveled to the United 
States. 
 
Comparison with Previous Validation Study 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
5.  Our previous validation study (Ref B) sampled 584 B1/B2 
visas issued from December 1, 2006 to May 31, 2007.  It yielded 
a 5 percent confirmed non-return rate, compared with this 
study's 2 percent non-return rate.  The adjusted refusal rate 
for B1/B2 visas in Surabaya during the most recent validation 
study period (December 1, 2007 - May 31, 2008) was 41.4 percent 
compared to an adjusted refusal rate of 35.1 percent during the 
previous validation study period. 
 
Conclusion 
--------------- 
6.  Surabaya's 2009 non-return rate of 2 percent is well under 
the 2011 Mission Strategic Plan (MSP) target B1/B2 visa 
non-return rate of 5 percent.  The results indicate that 
Surabaya's B1/B2 visa issuances during the study period were 
quality issuances.   However, a lack of any visa-related content 
on the Consulate's web site prior to August 2008 was likely a 
contributing factor to some applicants' inability to demonstrate 
their visa qualifications.  In August 2008, post created visa 
information content for a new web site that has resulted in a 
better informed and better prepared pool of visa applicants. 
Post also reviewed and adjusted is adjudication standards 
following the previous validation study.  As a result of these 
changes, the adjusted B1/B2 refusal rate has declined during the 
2009 calendar year to 27 percent. 
 
MOBLEY