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Viewing cable 06ANKARA319, TURKEY NATURAL GAS CRISIS WITH IRAN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ANKARA319 2006-01-27 15:25 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO3740
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHAK #0319 0271525
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271525Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2764
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY 2130
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 1312
RUEHBM/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST 0805
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5322
RUEHSF/AMEMBASSY SOFIA 0975
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 2959
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 1179
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH//
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 9677
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0319
UNCLAS ANKARA 000319 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK 
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR ALSO FOR DAS BRYZA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET ENRG ETRD TU RU
SUBJECT: TURKEY NATURAL GAS CRISIS WITH IRAN 
 
REF: ANKARA 65 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please Handle Accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU) On January 21, Iran cut its daily natural gas 
shipment to Turkey from almost 30 million cubic meters to 5- 
10 million cm (some daily fluctuation).  Coming on the heels 
of the Russian-Ukraine gas face-off, the current gas crisis 
in Georgia, and cold weather and concerns in Europe, the cut- 
off has generated broad concern about Turkey's natural gas 
situation.  Although on an annual basis, Iran provides 15% 
of Turkey's gas, the current short-fall is almost 20% of 
Turkey's daily requirement, because of winter variation. 
 
2.  (SBU)  The GOT has faced strong criticism in the press 
for inadequate contingency planning and not taking timely 
steps to put in place sufficient gas storage capacity. 
Energy Ministry sources tell us Energy Minister Guler has 
been meeting with the Iranian ambassador in an attempt to 
resume shipment.  In a long television interview January 26, 
Guler said the GOT has sought high level assurances from 
Russia that it would increase gas supply and assured the 
public that residential consumers would not be affected. 
 
3.  (SBU) In addition, BOTAS, the state-owned pipeline 
operator, cut gas supply to automobile producers and 
"interruptible" industrial and electricity generation plants 
-- most with fuel switching capacity.  However, the GOT 
backed off plans for more widespread cuts to industry.  For 
the longer term, Guler also reaffirmed plans to increase gas 
storage capability and to develop an LNG importing and 
processing capability. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Comment:  Like a comparable cut-off last year by 
Iran, the reasons for the cut-off are perceived as partly 
technical (cold weather causing problems with compressors), 
partly political, and partly winter energy requirements in 
Iran.  Turkey recently cancelled a technical visit to Iran 
to discuss gas supply issues and has taken the contract to 
international arbitration over gas price and quality issues. 
Although Turkish officials tell us they have grounds to 
pursue cancellation of the contract with Iran, they have 
been unwilling to pursue that step for energy supply 
diversification and political reasons. 
 
5.  (SBU) The extent of the disruption is serious, but it 
appears be manageable.  The state pipeline company BOTAS has 
suffered personnel changes over the years, reducing 
experience and technical capacity, and reducing its capacity 
to confidently put in place technical algorithms for this 
kind of crisis.  The fact that the Energy Ministry and 
President Erdogan immediately stepped into the fray is an 
indication of BOTAS' institutional weakness. 
WILSON