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Viewing cable 07PHNOMPENH534, CAMBODIAN PM DISCUSSES UPCOMING BURMA TRIP WITH
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07PHNOMPENH534 | 2007-04-10 04:27 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Phnom Penh |
VZCZCXRO9162
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0534/01 1000427
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 100427Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8302
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 2446
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 0628
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 3147
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 0681
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 0043
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PHNOM PENH 000534
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM EFIN ASEAN CB
SUBJECT: CAMBODIAN PM DISCUSSES UPCOMING BURMA TRIP WITH
DAS JOHN
REF: REFTEL: PHNOM PENH 109
Classified By: Acting DCM Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b), (d)
¶1. (C) Summary. During an April 4-7 visit to Cambodia, EAP
DAS John met with PM Hun Sen and FM Hor Namhong on US-ASEAN
relations, the PM's planned visit to Burma in May, North
Korea, elections, and Cambodia's bilateral debt to the U.S.
The PM claimed that the ROK and Japan are using Cambodia to
quietly speak with the DPRK; nevertheless, he said Cambodia
would support a US-ASEAN Summit statement on the Korean
Peninsula. The PM plans to visit Burma from May 21-24, and
reassured DAS John that Cambodia's policy towards Burma
mirrors that of the USG. The PM hopes to meet with Aung San
Sui Kyi during his trip, and has requested FM Hor Namhong to
travel to Burma during the first week of May to assess the
situation and plan for the PM's trip. Hun Sen was pleased
with Cambodia's recent commune elections, but noted concerns
over voter participation and turnout. On Cambodia's
bilateral debt to the U.S., the PM said he hopes negotiations
can be concluded in the near future; Russia is proving to be
more problematic. With FM Hor Namhong, DAS John reiterated
many of the same themes regarding ASEAN. The MFA and DAS
John discussed the TAC and prospects for USG consideration.
End Summary.
North Korea
-----------
¶2. (C) On April 6, DAS John met with PM Hun Sen, who opened
the discussion by asking about North Korea and prospects for
continued dialogue. DAS John mentioned the problems with the
financial transfer of USD 25 million in DPRK funds held in a
Hong Kong bank, and noted that the USG anticipated the issue
would be resolved soon and negotiations would get back on
track. Hun Sen responded that he was grateful to hear of USG
optimism, adding that the North Koreans are in touch with the
RGC. He specifically mentioned that the South Korean
President has requested Cambodia to convey points to the DPRK
regarding ROK good intentions toward North Korea; Hun Sen
hinted that the Japanese are also using Cambodia to relay
messages to North Korea. The PM added that North Korea
appears pleased with the position of the South Korean
government ("maybe because they are both Korean") but the
North Korean position on the kidnapping issue remains
problematic for the GOJ. Hun Sen opined that Kim Jong Il's
style of governance is no different than that of his father,
Kim Il Sung, whom he replaced in 1994. However, the
Cambodian leader observed that there is no heir apparent to
Kim Jong Il, and predicted a real change in North Korea once
Kim Jong Il passes from the political scene -- just as there
will be in Cuba once Castro dies, he added.
Elections
---------
¶3. (C) Hun Sen said that he was pleased with the recent
commune council elections, adding that the lower voter
turnout has yet to be properly analyzed and explained. The
PM offered that some voters -- particularly women and those
working in the service sector -- may have been unwilling to
vote and stain their fingers with the indelible ink. He
mentioned the problems with assembling the voters list and
the number of ghost voters whose names remain on the voter
rolls. The Japanese government has suggested that the RGC
consider a different computer program for compiling the names
of voters, and one that could interface with other RGC public
records (e.g., if a death certificate is filed for a person,
that voter's name is automatically removed from the voter
rolls). Another problem centered on the time of the year,
with the elections falling during the dry season when many
workers are in other provinces as guest laborers and are
unwilling or unable to come back to their districts to vote.
¶4. (C) The PM predicted that voter turnout would increase
in July 2008 during the national elections, as agricultural
workers will be back in their home provinces looking after
their own fields at that time. The PM added that 2008 will
also be a year for a national census, and the RGC is
anticipating that the Cambodian population will register an
estimated 14 million people. He praised the work of the
National Election Committee (NEC) in organizing the commune
elections, and in the NEC's use of radio and television to
educate people about the importance of voting. Comparing
PHNOM PENH 00000534 002 OF 004
Cambodia to Thailand, the PM said that Cambodia's democracy
had matured, with regular elections scheduled while their
neighbor to the west does not yet have a date for future
elections.
US-Cambodian Relations, ASEAN, Debt
-----------------------------------
¶5. (C) DAS John congratulated the PM on the improved state
of bilateral relations over the past year and a half. He
noted that the USG would like to see increased direct foreign
investment in the country, which would create the jobs needed
to keep democracy moving forward. Cambodia should pay closer
attention to its international image, he advised, as image
plays an important component in investors' decisions and can
help attract investment. When the U.S. talks about internal
issues in Cambodia, DAS John continued, it is not designed to
criticize the Cambodia government but rather to encourage the
RGC to be more concerned with its image.
¶6. (C) The USG wants to expand cooperation in ASEAN, said
John, whose previous stop was in Singapore. There, he was
struck by how much the USG is doing under the Enhanced
Partnership with ASEAN; more than China -- DAS John added,
but without as much credit. The U.S. supports narrowing the
development gap between ASEAN countries; and in trade,
health, and the social arena, the USG is doing more
ASEAN-wide, said John. The PM agreed that the US-ASEAN
partnership has worked well, and geographical proximity is
not as important as the substance of the relationship.
¶7. (C) Hun Sen said that USG-RGC relations have grown over
the past three years, and the recent arrival of Peace Corps
volunteers is testament to the positive bilateral
relationship. Cambodia is interested in greater trade and
development, and the PM hopes there will be more partnerships
with the U.S. in these areas. Chevron has played a role in
oil and gas exploration, which the RGC hopes will move into
the exploitation phase soon.
¶8. (C) On the bilateral debt, the PM acknowledged that
Cambodia has an obligation to repay the money and hopes that
both sides can reach agreement soon. He noted that the USG
negotiation has progressed further than Cambodia's talks with
Russia, and that repayments to the U.S. would not affect
macro-economic stability. The PM said that Moscow wants
Cambodia to repay all of its debt before the GOR will permit
the IMF to begin a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
(PGRF) program; this would be detrimental to the country's
economy. In addition, the loans from Russia initially came
as interest-free loans; now the Russians want to apply
commercial interest rates to their repayment, he said.
Burma
-----
¶9. (C) On Burma, DAS John said that the USG had pressed for
UNSC action on Burma but Russia and China had vetoed the
draft resolution. The U.S. continues to believe that the UN
needs to play a role on Burma, he added. Recalling the PM's
January conversation with PDAS Stephens (reftel) in which Hun
Sen indicated that he had accepted an invitation from the
regime to visit Burma, John said the USG would welcome RGC
reinforcement of U.S. policy regarding political prisoners
and the role of an opposition, the national convention, draft
constitution, and UN/NGO freedom to operate. John emphasized
that Cambodia is in a good position to explain how much a
country can benefit from making progress in all these areas.
The U.S. wants to change the dynamic with its relationship
with Burma, and try to move to a more positive track, said
John.
¶10. (C) Hun Sen responded that Burma has been an irritant
in US-ASEAN relations as well as ASEAN's relations with
Europe. The PM plans to visit Burma from May 21-13, with the
Foreign Minister going there during the first week of May to
preview the PM's meetings and plan for Hun Sen's trip. Hun
Sen explained that he originally planned to visit Burma in
conjunction with a trip to India or Japan, but his plans have
since changed. The Burmese Prime Minister recently sent a
special envoy to Phnom Penh with a letter of invitation, said
the PM, who added that the letter was not necessary since he
already had a standing invitation from Than Shwe. The PM
said he plans to quietly talk with the Burmese leadership,
PHNOM PENH 00000534 003 OF 004
and that he understands the psychology of the military.
Militaries like those in Burma do not appreciate
international pressure, particularly from the major world
powers; Hun Sen said they prefer speaking with smaller
nations. Thailand currently cannot speak to the Burmese
military because of the Thai coup d'etat.
¶11. (C) The PM promised to push the road map and all the
USG points raised by DAS John. He indicated a desire to
visit Aung San Sui Kyi, and FM Hor Namhong will request that
Hun Sen meet with ASSK during his trip. The PM said that
even if there is no release, it would be a good gesture on
the part of the regime if Hun Sen is allowed to see her. Hun
Sen said he remains undecided about the scope of his meetings
and how broad they should be, but is inclined to use private
meetings for the tougher messages. Any public discussion
that could cause a loss of face to the Burmese leadership
will not be productive, he noted. The regime has taken note
of Cambodia's National Assembly forming a Burma Caucus, said
Hun Sen, and understands Cambodia's position on Burma.
¶12. (C) Burma can move forward, underscored Hun Sen, but
one needs to find a way for the regime to do so without
pushing too hard. In that event, Cambodia's efforts will not
succeed, serving to push the regime closer to China and India
and perhaps force a split within ASEAN, he said. The key to
democratic progress is proper balance and a better
understanding of the situation and the leadership dynamic in
Burma, maintained Hun Sen. Burma has disturbed relations
within ASEAN and with ASEAN partners, he continued, and
Cambodia -- along with Laos and Vietnam -- have suffered.
DAS John shared the PM's frustration for the problems created
by Burma at ASEAN gatherings, adding that President Bush
regretted being unable to include Laos and Cambodia in Hanoi
on the margins of the APEC Summit. In response to the PM's
question regarding preparations for the US-ASEAN Summit, John
said that planning is underway but no firm decisions have yet
been made. Hun Sen said he understood the difficulty in
trying to find a suitable date and venue; the PM added that
Cambodia would agree to a joint statement on the Korean
peninsula.
DAS John Meeting with Foreign Minister Hor Namhong
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶13. (C) DAS John opened his meeting later on April 6 with
Foreign Minister Hor Namhong by noting how much US-Cambodian
relations had improved since his last visit to Cambodia one
year ago. Washington sees Cambodia as an important partner
in the region and in organizations like the UN and ASEAN.
Hor Namhong thanked the U.S. for its wide-ranging assistance,
and was especially enthusiastic about the new Peace Corps
volunteers. On the recent elections, the Foreign Minister
said he was disappointed by the relatively low voter turnout,
which he believed may be due to a combination of technical
problems, migration during the dry season, and less
enthusiasm for commune vs. national elections. The
Ambassador expressed concern over a three-week-old request
from UNHCR to bring Montagnards in Ratanakiri to Phnom Penh
for interviews and assistance, noting that if permission was
not granted soon, staff would not be able to travel until
after Khmer New Year.
¶14. (C) The Foreign Minister was very engaged on ASEAN
topics, and indicated that he would particularly welcome the
appointment of a U.S. Ambassador to ASEAN and U.S. accession
to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). DAS John noted
that the USG, and particularly the Defense Department, had
concerns about parts of the treaty that might constrain U.S.
foreign policy. However, he noted that the USG attitude
toward a potential TAC had changed over the past several
years, from one of focusing on the reasons why it wasn't
possible to now looking for ways to address potential
problems preventing the U.S. from signing. DAS John
encouraged the Cambodian government to suggest ways that
ASEAN could narrow the development gap among member
countries. He also expressed hope that the ASEAN Charter
would provide a mechanism for ASEAN to move forward on
developing an integrated economic policy. Hor Namhong said
that the Prime Minister will speak frankly with Burmese
leaders about how opening their society and democratizing is
in the interest of Burma and all of ASEAN, and would hold up
Cambodia as an example of a country that has succeeded at
national reconciliation. Hor Namhong outlined Cambodia's
PHNOM PENH 00000534 004 OF 004
main challenges as ASEAN integration, using economic
development to reduce poverty, and improving relations with
the U.S.
¶15. (U) DAS John did not have an opportunity to clear this
message before departure.
MUSSOMELI