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Viewing cable 05TELAVIV6624, KATSAV SETS MARCH 28 ELECTIONS, GIVES SHARON ROOM

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05TELAVIV6624 2005-11-23 11:43 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tel Aviv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006624 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: KATSAV SETS MARCH 28 ELECTIONS, GIVES SHARON ROOM 
TO GOVERN 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6576 
 
1.  Summary: Knesset representatives and President Katsav 
agreed November 23 to schedule elections for March 28, and to 
dissolve the Knesset by presidential decree, a measure that 
will allow Prime Minister Sharon to appoint new ministers 
during the period until elections without Knesset approval. 
Katsav signed the decree dissolving the Knesset later in the 
day.  Polls released on November 22 show that Sharon will win 
another term as prime minister, with his new party winning 
some 30-33 seats in the next Knesset, the Labor Party winning 
25-26, and Likud winning only 12-15.  The seven-way race for 
Likud Party leader, meanwhile, is heating up, with polls 
showing Binyamin Netanyahu with a lead over both Defense 
Minister Shaul Mofaz and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  Elections Procedures 
 
-- Knesset Law and Justice Committee Chairman Micki Eitan and 
President Katsav agreed November 23 on a March 28, 2006, 
election date and on dissolution of the Knesset by 
presidential decree.  Katsav signed the decree only hours 
after reaching the agreement. 
 
-- According to the Basic Laws, after the President signs an 
order to dissolve the Knesset, the order is published and 
takes effect in 21 days.  As part of the Katsav-Eitan 
agreement and in order to facilitate March 28 elections, the 
21-day period will not begin until December 8.  During the 
21-day period, a minimum of 61 MKs can petition the President 
to task an MK with forming a new government.  If such a 
candidate is not found, the order goes into effect at the end 
of the 21 days.  Observers see no chance that any MK will be 
able to form a new government. 
 
-- Dissolution of the Knesset by presidential decree allows 
Prime Minister Sharon to appoint new ministers during the 
period up until elections without Knesset approval, but as 
part of the agreement, Sharon can appoint such ministers only 
from among Knesset members. 
 
3.  The Changing Government 
 
-- With the resignation of all eight Labor Party ministers 
taking effect by November 24, Sharon's new Cabinet will 
initially consist of 12 ministers. 
 
-- The Likud Party decided November 22 to remain in the 
government at least until it has chosen a new party leader. 
If Likud resigns, Sharon would be left with six ministers in 
his Cabinet. 
 
4. Primaries 
 
-- The Likud Party has set its first-round leadership vote 
for December 19.  If no candidate receives over 40 percent in 
the first round, a second round is to take place on December 
22.  The entire Likud membership of some 150,000 votes in 
these primaries. 
 
-- Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Defense Minister Shaul 
Mofaz, Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, Education Minister 
Limor Livnat, former Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, MK 
Uzi Landau, and settler leader Moshe Feiglin are contenders 
in the Likud Party leadership race. 
 
-- The primary for the Likud Party's Knesset list is 
scheduled for January 3.  Likud's 3,000-member Central 
Committee votes on the composition of this list. 
 
-- The primary for Labor's Knesset list is scheduled for 
January 17.  Labor's 3,000-member Central Committee will vote 
on the list. 
 
-- Israel Radio reported November 23 that Shimon Peres will 
meet with new Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz and is 
expected to tell him that he has completed his "time out" of 
politics and is returning to Labor Party political activity. 
Reports are unclear as to whether Peres will seek a Knesset 
seat or opt to work from outside the parliament. 
 
5. Sharon's New Party 
 
-- Sharon has tentatively agreed to name his new party, 
"National Responsibility" and not, as some reports claimed, 
"Kadima" ("forward"). 
 
-- The following 13 Likud MKs have announced that they will 
join Sharon's party, entitling the new party to bring with it 
some portion of Likud's finances: Finance Minister Ehud 
Olmert, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, Tourism Minister 
Avraham Hirchson, Minister of Internal Security Gideon Ezra, 
Transportation Minister Meir Sheetrit,  Omri Sharon, Eli 
Aflalo, Ruhama Avraham, Ronnie Bar-On, Ze'ev Boim, Marina 
Solodkin, Majallie Whbee, Ya'akov Edri. 
 
-- The Knesset House Committee voted November 23 to split the 
Likud Party into two factions: the Likud Faction and the 
National Responsibility Faction, comprised of 14 former Likud 
MKs. 
 
-- MK Chaim Ramon announced November 23 that he is resigning 
from the Labor Party to join Sharon's new party. 
 
-- Former Am Ehad MK David Tal also announced November 23 
that he will join Sharon's party. 
 
6.  Polls 
 
-- Three separate polls taken since Sharon quit Likud show 
that, if voting were held now, Sharon's new party would 
receive 30 to 33 of the Knesset's 120 seats, making it the 
largest party.  The Labor Party would become the second 
largest party, with 26 seats, and the Likud Party, losing two 
thirds of its current seats, would win only 12-15 seats. 
 
-- Two separate polls among Likud voters produced disparate 
results, although both showed Netanyahu in the lead among 
Likud chairman contenders.  In one poll of Likud voters, 
Netanyahu won 51 percent, with Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz 
and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom each taking 15 percent. 
In another poll, Netanyahu takes only 26 percent, with Mofaz 
winning 23 percent and Shalom 16 percent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
JONES