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Viewing cable 05PRETORIA2451, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05PRETORIA2451 | 2005-06-23 09:56 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 002451
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
USTR FOR COLEMAN
LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
June 10, 2005 ISSUE
¶1. SUMMARY. Each week, AmEmbassy Pretoria publishes an
economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the opinion
of the U.S. Government. Topics in the February 25
newsletter include:
- Interest rate remains unchanged
- April manufacturing up 7.1 percent
- Inflation expectations unchanged
- SACU to sign trade deal with EFTA
- SA eyes uranium mining
- Telkom announces huge profits
- South Africa forex reserves soar 7 percent
END SUMMARY.
-------------------------------
INTEREST RATE REMAINS UNCHANGED
-------------------------------
¶2. On June 9, Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni announced
that the repurchase rate would remain at 7 percent. The
decision to keep rates unchanged was the unanimous
expectation of economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge and
mirrors similar non-action by the central banks of
Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom this week.
The no-change forecast was despite the fact that CPIX
inflation (CPI excluding mortgage costs) has been below the
midpoint of the Reserve Bank's inflation target range of 3 -
6 percent year-on-year for 16 out of the past 19 months.
The recent volatility in the rand has concerned economists
as the rand went from below R6 per dollar to almost R7 per
dollar. Optimists say that all this has done is provide a
buying opportunity for foreigners, who expect the rand to
strengthen back towards the R6 per dollar level as the
proceeds from the Barclays purchase of Absa enters South
Africa. (Mail & Guardian, June 9)
----------------------------------
APRIL MANUFACTURING UP 7.1 PERCENT
----------------------------------
¶3. South African manufacturing production rose by 7.1
percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2005 after increasing by
only 0.7 percent y/y in March 2005, Statistics South Africa
(Stats SA) reported. Manufacturing sales rose by 11.4
percent y/y in April to 68.1 billion rand after increasing
by only 1.9 percent y/y in March. Stats SA said the y/y
comparisons are distorted by Easter falling in March this
year, whereas in 2004 it fell in April. Higher production
was reported by four of the ten manufacturing divisions.
Manufacturers reported increased production and sales in
April 2005 due to a longer working month after the public
holidays in March 2005. The major contributor to the
seasonally adjusted increase of 1.0 percent in total
manufacturing production for the three months ended April
2005 compared with the previous three months was the food
and beverages division, followed by the petroleum, chemical
products, rubber and plastic products, wood and wood
products, paper, publishing and printing and the glass and
non-metallic mineral products division. However, these
increases were counteracted by decreases reported by the
furniture and 'other' manufacturing division, the textiles,
clothing, leather and footwear division, the radio,
television and communication apparatus and professional
equipment division, and the motor vehicles, parts and
accessories and other transport equipment division. The
South African economy has officially been in an "upward"
phase since September 1999, exceeding the previous record
upward phase, which lasted from September 1961 to April
¶1965. (I-Net Bridge, June 10)
--------------------------------
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED
--------------------------------
¶4. South African inflation expectations of 4.5 percent for
CPIX (CPI less mortgage costs) for the second quarter of
2005 remain unchanged from those in the first quarter of the
year, according to the latest survey by the Bureau for
Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch.
The BER said the results were "encouraging," as they
confirmed the lower expectations recorded during the first
quarter of the year, while also showing that the higher
petrol price had not pushed general inflation expectations
higher. The price of unleaded petrol at the coast had
increased by more than 1 rand per liter - to 5.11 rand in
May from 4.09 rand in February - since the previous survey.
Changes in the petrol price could have a large impact on
inflation expectations, the BER noted, as transport costs
made up a relatively large share of the expenses of
households and companies. However, the BER added, inflation
expectations were unlikely to fall further during the
upcoming quarters, as actual inflation had bottomed and fuel
prices had risen. Also noteworthy was the trade union
movement's slightly higher expectations for salary and wage
increases - the second quarter survey showed trade union
officials' expectations for these rising to 7.2 percent for
2005 and 7.3 percent for 2006, from 6.8 percent and 6.9
percent, respectively, in the first quarter. (I-Net Bridge,
June 10)
---------------------------------
SACU TO SIGN TRADE DEAL WITH EFTA
---------------------------------
¶5. The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is expected to
sign a free trade agreement with the European Free Trade
Association (EFTA) by the end of the month, according to
Trade and Industry Chief Director of Trade Negotiations
Xavier Carim. An agreement would open up duty-free and
quota-free access for SACU industrial products to EFTA
member countries - Norway, Switzerland, Lichtenstein and
Iceland. EFTA countries normally trail the EU to negotiate
equal agreements with trade partners, but this agreement has
better rules-of-origin requirements than the trade agreement
that South Africa has with the EU. Implementation is only
likely to take place from early next year, as each of the
member countries of both blocs must ratify the agreement,
Carim said in a briefing to Parliament's trade and industry
portfolio committee. The negotiations with EFTA began in
May 2002 and have concentrated on traditional trade issues.
The parties agreed to exclude "new-generation" issues such
as trade in services, intellectual property rights,
investment, competition and government procurement. EFTA
has offered SACU limited access to its basic agricultural
products market, but is willing to grant more. (Business
Day, June 6)
----------------------
SA EYES URANIUM MINING
----------------------
¶6. In her recent budget speech to Parliament, Minerals and
Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said South Africa was
committed to nuclear power, and would use its uranium
resources to ensure security of energy supply. Currently,
most uranium in SA is mined as a by-product of gold mining.
Gold and uranium miner Aflease's CE Neal Forneman says
Aflease wants to start mining uranium and that government
needs to make it easier for companies to gain access to
mineral rights. However, Earthlife Africa researcher
Mashile Phalane cautions that government must ensure that
communities living in the vicinity of uranium grains will
not be affected by expanded uranium mining. The price of
the mineral in oxide form has risen from $10/lb in early
2003 to the current price of $29/lb. (Business Day, June 7)
-----------------------------
TELKOM ANNOUNCES HUGE PROFITS
-----------------------------
¶7. Shares in telecommunications group Telkom rose to an all-
time high of 119 rand per share on Monday after the firm
reported a 53 percent rise in basic earnings per share to
1241.8 cents from last year's 812 cents. The results came
in slightly above market consensus. The market had forecast
an improvement of between 40 percent and 50 percent. The
Johannesburg and New York-listed firm also said it would pay
out an ordinary dividend of four rand per share and a
special dividend of five rand per share. Since listing on
March 4, 2003, Telkom's share price has roared ahead more
than 320 percent. Telkom CEO Sizwe Nxasana said, during the
results presentation, that the firm was looking at investing
in the Democratic Republic of Congo where its 50 percent-
held subsidiary Vodacom Group already had mobile operations.
In addition, he said Kenya and Nigeria are some of the
markets Telkom has identified for future expansion. (I-Net
Bridge, June 6)
-------------------------------------------
SOUTH AFRICAN FOREX RESERVES SOAR 7 PERCENT
-------------------------------------------
¶8. South Africa's foreign exchange reserves rocketed 7
percent last month as the Reserve Bank began managing the
financial inflows from the proposed $4.9 billion Barclays-
Absa deal. Gross foreign exchange and gold reserves surged
by $1.15 billion to $17.2 billion. Efficient Group
economist Nico Kelder said reserves "breached the R100
billion level for the first time" last month, increasing the
import-cover ratio to 16.8 weeks from 13.9 weeks in April.
"This ratio is expected to increase further in coming
months, especially after the Barclays transaction boosts
reserves by approximately R33 billion ($5 billion)," he
said. The Bank said yesterday that the reserves increase
reflected "a combination of foreign exchange operations
conducted by the Bank for own account, as well as on behalf
of customers, including foreign exchange purchases arising
from a foreign direct investment transaction." It did not
identify the transaction, but economists said it was most
likely to be the deal approved by Finance Minister Trevor
Manuel last month, in which Barclays seeks to buy up to 60
percent of ABSA. National treasury officials have said the
Bank will manage the inflows from the deal to avoid an
unwelcome strengthening of the rand that a sudden increase
in demand for the currency would cause. The sharp increase
in reserves also comes against the backdrop of calls for the
Bank to be more active in the foreign exchange market to
weaken the rand, something it has repeatedly said it is not
prepared to do. Despite the strong rand being blamed for
job losses and sluggish growth in the manufacturing sector,
President Thabo Mbeki said, "We certainly are not thinking
in any way of finding huge resources to keep the value of
the currency at a particular rate. We don't have them;
there is no way we can find billions of dollars to compete
with the market to set the value of the currency after a
particular point." (Business Day, June 8)
FRAZER