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Viewing cable 07DUSSELDORF33, THE SPD AFTER ITS HAMBURG CONVENTION: THE VIEW FROM NRW

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07DUSSELDORF33 2007-11-27 08:11 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Dusseldorf
VZCZCXRO6314
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDF #0033/01 3310811
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270811Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0097
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF 0111
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: THE SPD AFTER ITS HAMBURG CONVENTION: THE VIEW FROM NRW 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000033  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: In the weeks following the national 
convention in Hamburg, senior NRW SPD leaders are projecting a 
renewed sense of confidence as the state party retained its 
major national role and emerged more unified after a period of 
internal dissonance.  State SPD chair Hannelore Kraft spun the 
party's decision to amend its Agenda 2010 as a "relatively minor 
correction that leaves about 90% of the Agenda intact" and a 
"return to our roots," a view we have found widespread 
especially among Ruhr area mayors.  Whether the "bounce" for the 
NRW SPD emerging from the Hamburg convention will strengthen the 
state party's profile against a strong CDU-FDP coalition and 
popular Minister President, as well as the growing influence of 
the Left Party, remains to be seen.  End Summary. 
 
Strong NRW Influence Continues on SPD National Level 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In a recent conversation with the CG, SPD NRW Chair 
Hannelore Kraft, who was reelected to the National Executive 
Board with one of the best election results, said the convention 
provided "good signals and a boost for the party in NRW."  She 
pointed out that 13 of the party's 45 Executive Board Members 
are from NRW, and with the election of Finance Minister and 
former NRW Minister-President Peer Steinbrueck as National Vice 
Chairman and Barbara Hendricks as party Treasurer, two of the 
six inner leaders are also from her state.  She attributed the 
strong results for NRW to the fact that "for the first time in 
party history the delegation acted as a more or less unified 
block." 
 
NRW SPD sees Beck as Undisputed Party Leader 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Kraft expressed strong support for Kurt Beck, 
commenting that "although not especially media-savvy, he has 
always enjoyed strong support from rank-and-file members."  She 
contrasted Beck with Franz Muentefering, whom she called "a 
rational person, basing his politics on reason and economic 
facts."  Kraft also said that it would be Beck's decision to 
stand in 2009, adding that the convention demonstrated his 
ability "to appeal to people's emotions, not their intellect," 
and that "he is not polarizing and has a natural gift to unite 
people."  Cologne SPD MdB Lale Akgun predicted to Pol/Econ 
Officer that Beck would be the party's next candidate for 
Chancellor, calling him "a man of the people, who has what it 
takes to find widespread support in the electorate." 
 
Local NRW SPD Leaders Call Convention a "Return to Roots" 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Local NRW SPD politicians also expressed satisfaction 
with the Hamburg convention.  Four SPD mayors from the Ruhr area 
spun the results to the CG as less of a "shift to the left" than 
a "return to roots."  Kraft also rejected the notion that the 
convention amounted to a "swing to the left."  She called the 
change in the unemployment benefit regulation only "cosmetic," 
to correct what many people in the party considered a social 
injustice.  It was necessary to give the rank and file the 
feeling that its leadership listened to them and addressed their 
concerns.  Muenterfering opposed the change because he feared it 
would open the flood gates to a complete revision of the Agenda 
2010, an assessment she disagreed with,  arguing that "deep down 
the party knows Agenda 2010 was absolutely necessary," despite 
the fact that they were not enthusiastic about it and wanted 
"injustices corrected."  She assessed that overall 90% of Agenda 
2010 would remain in place. 
 
Delegates Younger, More Focused on Environment and "Social 
Justice" 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Kraft observed that in recent years ecological and 
social justice themes have gained in importance among convention 
delegates, who in Hamburg were also younger than in the past. 
The Deutsche Bahn privatization vote demonstrated strong 
opposition among delegates to further moves in this direction, 
in large part because activists from local government had 
experienced job losses in their areas after such cases in the 
past.  Kraft commented positively on the tone the party 
leadership had set, the free and open debate, and the fact that 
debate on critical issues had not been stifled, which had 
happened in the past. 
 
Reactions from NRW-based businesses 
---------------------------------------- 
 
6.  Amcham NRW leaders have not expressed concern to us about 
the main casualties (unemployment benefits and train 
privatization) from Hamburg, as they do not affect their 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000033  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
operations directly, but they have told us they are watching for 
signs of a further erosion of Agenda 2010.  The Cologne-based 
Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft, one of Germany's leading 
economic research institutes (associated with BDI), criticized 
the decision to extend unemployment benefits for older 
employees, pointing out that it would cost up to two billion 
Euros annually and arguing that the indirect costs would be even 
higher. 
 
Comment 
----------- 
 
7.  (SBU) The modifications in Hamburg to Agenda 2010 are 
clearly popular among the party base in NRW as representing a 
"return to SPD roots."  State party leaders' attempts to present 
the changes as "not much of a shift to the left" seem more of an 
attempt to reassure the pro-business wing of the party and 
others anxious about potential change in national policy.  The 
NRW SPD rank and file only reluctantly supported Agenda 2010, 
while party leaders are concerned about the potential support 
for Die Linke.  It is thus not surprising that the party is 
trying to firm up its base.  Whether the "bounce" emerging from 
the Hamburg convention will strengthen the NRW SPD against a 
strong CDU-FDP coalition and popular Minister President, as well 
as the growing influence of the Left Party (septel), remains to 
be seen.  One of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's chief 
aides told DCM recently that he didn't think it would.  End 
Comment. 
 
8.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
BOYSE