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Viewing cable 09DJIBOUTI88, SOMALIA CAMPAIGN SPEECHES IDENTIFY FRONTRUNNERS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09DJIBOUTI88 | 2009-01-30 16:26 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Djibouti |
VZCZCXRO4387
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #0088/01 0301626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301626Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0064
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000088
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR AF/E
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM SO DJ
SUBJECT: SOMALIA CAMPAIGN SPEECHES IDENTIFY FRONTRUNNERS
REF: a) DJIBOUTI 87
REF: Djibouti 87
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On January 29, the fifteen candidates
for President each made a speech to Parliament. At the end
of the presentations, most MPs agreed that TFG Prime
Minister Nur Hassan Hussein Nur Adde and ARS Chairman
Sheikh Sharif Ahmed remained the frontrunners. Nur Adde
focused on his record of reconciliation and the results he
achieved as Prime Minister. Sheikh Sharif presented a
message focused on the importance of Islam as the basis for
solutions to Somalias ills. Sharif won the most applause
of all the candidates yet Nur Adde was also very well-
received. Some of the candidates delivered remarks that
many regarded as prime ministerial speeches, to indicate
their capacity to serve in the number two spot. Mohamed
Qanyare Afrah used the opportunity to announce his
withdrawal from the race. With the speeches now concluded,
all preparations are now set for the January 30 elections.
Prior to the elections, twelve additional ARS-nominated
parliamentarians will take the oath of office. The three-
phase electoral process will likely last through the night
but all were confident that a new president would emerge by
January 31. End Summary.
Campaign Speeches:
A Window on the Candidates
--------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Beginning at about 6:15 p.m. on January 29, the
fifteen candidates vying for Somalias presidency began
making their speeches. (For a list of the candidates, see
reftel). Each candidate was allotted fifteen minutes for
their remarks and the electoral commission strictly
enforced the time limit. The candidates presented remarks
in alphabetical order, by their first names. Many of the
candidates identified the crisis of leadership as the
source of most of Somalias problems. They each offered,
to varying degrees, priorities they would address if
elected. The first presentation by Abdirahman Abdi
Hussein, currently Somalias Ambassador to Iran. Hussein
said he would focus on poverty as the root cause of
violence, and then address the security situation by
seeking diverse perspectives across all groups. Former
warlord Ahmed Hashi Mahmoud said he would focus on
eliminating clanism and would serve as an example for all
other Somalis to follow. He won applause when he stated
that Now, the entire world rules Somalia; it is now time
for Somalia to rule itself.
¶3. (SBU) Ali Hashi Dore advocated for the introduction of
political parties to prevent all the candidates from
focusing on personal ambitions, which he said had
undermined all of the previous failed peace processes. He
reminded the MPs that this was a transitional government
and asked them to elect the man who can best serve as
father to the transitional process. Former Prime
Minister Ali Khalif Guled delivered a prime ministerial
candidates speech, focusing on his proven record and
ability to bring opposing groups together to effectively
manage a power sharing arrangement. He asked all Somalis
to read the constitution and the charter so they would each
understand their personal responsibilities. Another former
PM, Hassan Abshir Farah delivered a speech for the number
two job. In his opening remarks, Farah stated that his
first order of business would be to appoint a strong PM and
a quality cabinet to re-instill trust, build peace and make
progress.
Will Number 13 be lucky for Nur Adde?
-------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) Now that he is a candidate for president, some
MPs insist on referring to Nur Adde as the former Prime
Minister, making the point that he cannot use the official
state platform to advance his campaign. As the thirteenth
candidate to present his speech, Nur Adde began by clearly
stating that he is the best candidate because his focus on
reconciliation yielded the tangible results of an expanded
parliament. He told the audience that after much effort
and discussions between the TFG and the ARS, his leadership
has helped make the Djibouti process a success. He said
that reconciliation must continue and he pledged to roll up
his sleeves to continue the work he has begun. Nur Adde
said that his top priority would be to create an effective
government of national unity.
DJIBOUTI 00000088 002 OF 003
¶5. Nur Adde offered a laundry list of priorities,
beginning with the institution of law and order, respect of
the Charter and laws of the country, and economic
development and reconstruction. The former PM said he
would move toward the creation of political parties and
elections at the end of the transitional period,
humanitarian access, financial systems, and press freedom.
He promised to give special consideration for human rights
and the role of civil society. Nur Addes speech was clear
and he appeared much more charismatic than usual. He was
also the only candidate to distribute (in Somali) a hard
copy of his remarks. His focus on reconciliation won him
solid applause from the audience.
Sheikh Sharif Offers an Islamic Olive Branch
--------------------------------------------
¶6. (SBU) Sheikh Sharif delivered his speech directly after
Nur Adde. The audience, especially from the ARS-nominated
MPs, loudly exhorted the ARS Chairman and newly sworn-in
MP. Although his message at the January 26 opening of the
meeting in Djibouti focused on reconciliation, Sheikh
Sharifs campaign speech was notable in its focus on Islam
as the foundation for change. Sharif began by stating that
all of Somalias problems are interconnected and based on
political conflict. He said now that more people are
participating in the political process, the population is
ready to do its part in improving security. He linked the
deterioration of the economic sector to the worsening
security situation. Sharif told the MPs, We can solve all
of these problems by working together, as equals, and
reinforced by our religion.
¶7. (SBU) Sharif said that Islamic Sharia law teaches that
dialogue is the basis for conflict resolution and that
justice and reconciliation must be the foundation for a
peaceful Somalia. He cautioned that many religious ideas
appear to be part of Islam but in an allusion to al-
Shabaab, he noted that they are ideologies that have
nothing to do with the religion. Sharif gained hearty
applause when he said that as president, he would appoint
religious scholars to help the population make the
distinction between true and false Islamic doctrines. In
addition to religion, Sharif had a strong message about
security, praising Somalias former military officers as
capable of helping its forces secure the country and avoid
spilling any more blood. He concluded by stating that
religious groups are now carrying out tasks that should be
done by the government and his mission is to once again
have government in the lead, serving and being accountable
to its people.
A Few Surprises
---------------
¶8. (SBU) When it came time for former warlord and TFG MP
Mohamed Qanyare Afrah to make his speech, he announced that
he would be brief because his only message was that he was
withdrawing his candidacy. He thanked all of his
supporters and said that all would move together in one
voting block to support the best man for the job. Many saw
this move as yet another way for him to keep relevant and
exert influence in the next administration by delivering
his supporters.
¶9. (SBU) Muslah Mohamed Siyad, the son of former president
Siad Barre, received heavy applause and cheers from the
audience, even prior to his speech. Some have attributed
this to financial incentives for his supporters and
nostalgia among some for the comparatively prosperous pre
1991 years. Siyad delivered a brief message stating his
intention to focus on rebuilding national identity and
pride and re-establishing the dignity of Somalia. There
is speculation that Siyad has the lead among the Darod,
although there is an internal struggle among Darod sub-
clans about how the clan should leverage its influence.
Yusuf Al Azhari also delivered a solid performance focusing
on his years of experience working within Somalias
government and his ideas on how to work with parliament to
achieve sustainable peace. After the five hour session,
the candidates departed for a long night of campaigning at
the various hotels in Djibouti where the members of
Somalias unity government were choosing their favorites.
On January 30, SRSG Ould-Abdallah announced that several
ARS-nominated MPs who arrived overnight would be sworn in
prior to the start of the election.
DJIBOUTI 00000088 003 OF 003
Comment
-------
¶10. (SBU) Sheikh Sharif was not the only candidate to
focus on religious themes. All of the candidates made
reference to Islam during their speeches as a core value on
which Somalias reconstruction must be built. Several made
specific mention of instituting Sharia law nationwide.
Most candidates also made specific mention of the
leadership crisis gripping Somalia. At the end of the
session, many told us that Sharif looks like a clear
frontrunner but the process is complicated and many other
outcomes remain possible. Late evening on January 29, we
met with Sheikh Sharif and told him that in the event he is
elected, he must choose a strong Prime Minister from
outside the ARS and a capable and representative cabinet.
He agreed. On January 30, the MPs will cast their secret
ballots and we expect that after at least two rounds of
voting, sometime in the early morning hours, Somalia will
have a new president.
SWAN
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