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Viewing cable 06MEXICO1509, ROSARIO GREEN ANALYZES PRESIDENTIAL RACE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06MEXICO1509 | 2006-03-20 22:14 | 2011-04-05 01:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Mexico |
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/eu-dudaba-de-la-viabilidad-del-pri/ |
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2006-03-20 22:14:00
06MEXICO1509
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
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TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001509
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: ROSARIO GREEN ANALYZES PRESIDENTIAL RACE
REF: 05 MEXICO 7200
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Leslie A. Bassett, Reasons:
1.4(B/D).
¶1. (C) Summary: In a wide-ranging conversation,
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Secretary General and
former Foreign Minister Rosario Green offered to poloff her
analysis of Mexico's presidential race. She attributed
Madrazo's current electoral problems in part to the fact that
the PRI was unaccustomed to running a presidential campaign
from the opposition and lacked an authoritative figure in the
party -- such as a sitting president -- to enforce party
discipline. She also cited the scandals involving prominent
PRI politicians Arturo Montiel and Mario Marin, and teachers'
union leader Elba Esther Gordillo's desire to exact revenge
for Madrazo's numerous slights (reftel), as contributing to
the party's poor public image. Notwithstanding the difficult
electoral panorama that Madrazo faces, she argued that the
candidate remained competitive, because of the PRI's
allegedly large base of reliable voters. She argued that as
President, Madrazo would do a much better job of managing the
U.S.-Mexico relationship than President Fox has done,
asserting that Madrazo has much more realistic expectations
for the relationship than does Fox or, by extension, Felipe
Calderon. She sought to portray presidential front-runner
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as a dangerous authoritarian who
would cause capital flight. At several times during the
conversation, she gave the impression of being outside of
Madrazo's inner circle, an impression consistent with what we
have heard from other contacts. End summary.
Answering "an Authentic Cry for Help"
-------------------------------------
¶2. (C) In a rambling monologue, former Foreign Minister and
current PRI Secretary General offered poloff her views on
Mexico's presidential race. (Note: Green was named PRI
Secretary General on September 30, 2005, succeeding Gordillo,
SIPDIS
who resigned the post as the result of a long-standing feud
with former party president and current presidential
candidate Roberto Madrazo. End note.) Green told poloff
that she agreed to resign her position at St. Edward's
University in Austin, Texas and return to Mexico because she
considered the PRI's offer of the position "an authentic cry
for help." She believed Mexico was facing a potential
"institutional crisis" that threatened its democracy, and
that under the circumstances, she felt a moral obligation to
return to Mexico and reenter political life.
Death "by 1,000 Defections"
---------------------------
¶3. (C) Green enumerated several factors underlying PRI
candidate Roberto Madrazo's poor standing in current polls.
Perhaps most significantly, she noted that the PRI had never
before run a presidential campaign without holding the
presidency, and that it was struggling to adapt to its role
as an opposition party. The party was accustomed to having
an all-powerful "godfather" figure -- i.e., an incumbent
president -- to mediate disputes between rival factions and
to impose discipline on the party. The lack of such a
dominant figure had led to considerable division within the
party, and permitted disaffected PRIistas -- most notably,
Sonora Governor Eduardo Bours -- to run a "counter campaign"
against the party's nominee. She also singled out the
scandals involving such prominent PRIistas as former Mexico
state Governor Arturo Montiel and current Puebla state
Governor Mario Marin. She added that in the face of poor
party discipline, renegade party members, such as Elba Esther
Gordillo, were free to pursue their personal vendettas
against the candidate, seeking to cause Madrazo's political
"death by 1,000 defections."
Counting on the "Voto Duro"
---------------------------
¶4. (C) Green argued that notwithstanding the problems
confronting the PRI, Madrazo remained a competitive
candidate. She argued that with the party's base of loyal
voters (voto duro) of 10-11 million, it needed to win fewer
than 5 million swing voters to win the election. She argued
that this election would likely be decided by young, first
time voters, which was why Madrazo had entered into an
alliance with the Green Party (PVEM). She said Madrazo would
soon air new television advertisements in order to
reintroduce himself to the electorate, and demonstrate that
his poor public reputation was not a reflection of his true
self.
Madrazo Has Realistic Expectations for U.S.-Mexico Relations
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
MEXICO 00001509 002 OF 002
¶5. (C) Green sought to assure poloff that Madrazo would
manage U.S.-Mexico relations far better than President Fox
or, by extension, Felipe Calderon. She said that while
Madrazo believed the U.S. and Mexico needed an immigration
accord, Madrazo did not seek "the whole enchilada" --
unrestricted Mexican immigration into the U.S. -- as favored
by President Fox early in his term. She said Madrazo would
be satisfied with a significant increase in the number of H1B
and H2 visas made available to Mexico. She added that while
Madrazo understood the U.S. had the right to protect its
border, including with a border wall, such a proposal
offended Mexicans, and that U.S. interests would be better
served by a high-tech "virtual wall."
Better the Devil You Know
-------------------------
¶6. (C) Green reiterated the usual critique of Revolutionary
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(AMLO), arguing that he was authoritarian and extremist. She
predicted that if he lost the election, he would refuse to
accept the results unless the winner enjoyed a margin of at
least 10 percent. She intimated that AMLO would damage the
Mexican economy, arguing that he only knew how to fight
capital, not how to cooperate with it. Unlike AMLO, Madrazo
sought to eradicate poverty, not wealth. She said only
Madrazo had a chance of defeating AMLO, and that Calderon was
already out of contention -- a surprising assertion
considering that the PAN leads the PRI in most polls.
Hoping for a Senate Seat....
----------------------------
¶7. (C) As for her own personal ambitions, Green said that
she had registered as a Senate candidate and expected to be
named a candidate on the party's national (plurinominal)
list, although she did not indicate whether she expected to
be named to a sufficiently high position to guarantee her
election. (Note: At least two embassy contacts in the PRI
have told us that she would not be given a high position on
the party's plurinominal list. End note.)
Comment: Madrazo's Latest Victim?
----------------------------------
¶8. (C) Green stayed close to the party line throughout our
conversation; indeed, we were surprised only by her assertion
that the PAN was already out of contention, since it
continues to lead the PRI in most polls. Otherwise, Green
gave the impression of being something of a figurehead as
party Secretary General. She seemed less informed about
internal party politics than some lower ranking contacts, and
gave the impression of not being in Madrazo's inner circle,
confirming what we have heard elsewhere. Such an impression
would be further confirmed if she is relegated to an
uncompetitive position on the party's legislative list, an
anomalous result for the party's second-ranking official. If
that turns out to be the case, we will not be able to escape
the impression that Madrazo lured her back to Mexico with
empty promises last September, when according to party
by-laws, he urgently needed a woman to fill the post
abandoned by Gordillo. If her party loyalty is not duly
rewarded, Green may prove to be but the latest victim of
Roberto Madrazo's lifetime of double dealing. End comment.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity
GARZA