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Viewing cable 07NICOSIA136, OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SOON TO ANNOUNCE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07NICOSIA136 | 2007-02-14 09:18 | 2011-06-04 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Nicosia |
Appears in these articles: http://www.tanea.gr |
VZCZCXRO7128
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHNC #0136/01 0450918
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 140918Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7527
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0781
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000136
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM CY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SOON TO ANNOUNCE
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b), (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: European Parliamentarian and former Foreign
Minister Ioannis Kasoulides will stand in Cyprus's 2008
presidential elections, with a formal announcement likely in
March. Behind the decision to run was his conviction that a
new generation of leaders should take command in Cyprus,
Kasoulides told the Ambassador February 12. Cognizant that
his DISY party remained laden with baggage from its support
of the 2004 Annan Plan referendum, Kasoulides would run as an
independent, albeit one with ties to the right-wing group.
Buoying his electoral chances were the growing percentages of
AKEL and EDEK voters unsatisfied with President Tassos
Papadopoulos's hard-line Cyprus Problem tactics; Kasoulides
saw them as ripe for picking. DISY-conducted polling showed
his current electoral support at 40 percent, six points below
that necessary to win. Papadopoulos remained a formidable
candidate, Kasoulides admitted, aided greatly by his control
of the media. The President had other tools at his disposal
to sway the electorate at key campaign junctures as well,
from manufacturing movement on the CyProb to publicizing the
onset of oil exploration. The campaign would be long and
hard, Kasoulides predicted, and Papadopoulos looked tough to
defeat.
¶2. (C) Under the President's stewardship, chances for a
Cyprus settlement had diminished, Kasoulides argued.
"Papadopoulos is a wonderful goalkeeper," he expounded,
referring to the leader's lawyerly, go-slow bent, "but
keepers don't win games." To show contrast, Kasoulides
revisited his "two-phased" approach to re-unifying the
island, which has generated substantial media play recently.
Were he to win office, he would pitch to both sides an
arrangement wherein a unified Cyprus would feature a
continued role for guarantor powers, a presence of foreign
troops, veto powers for the communities, and controls over
movement and resettlement, but for a fixed period of time.
Afterward, Cyprus could "join the community of fully
independent nations," Kasoulides asserted. END SUMMARY.
------------------------------
Throwing the Hat into the Ring
------------------------------
¶3. (C) Even before the ubiquitous Cypriot coffee had reached
the table at their February 12 get-together, Euro MP and
former Foreign Minister (1998-2003) Ioannis Kasoulides was
telling the Ambassador of plans to contest the 2008 race.
"I'm not subtle," he chuckled. "I'm running." Despite
considering the campaign a personal gamble -- he was
comfortable in Brussels, and had he wanted a change of venue
or responsibilities, he could have challenged and defeated
Nikos Anastassiades for the DISY presidency -- Kasoulides
asserted that Cyprus needed new blood. "Presidents
Papadopoulos, Clerides, and Kyprianou all were followers of
Makarios and think the same way," he charged. The nation
required a generational change of leadership, and Kasoulides
believed he fit the bill.
¶4. (C) DISY continued to suffer political repercussions from
its support of the 2004 Annan Plan. Leader Anastassiades had
"no credibility in Cyprus," Kasoulides argued, "much like
Papadopoulos is ignored off of the island." With this in
mind, he would run as an independent. He had no illusion or
intention of fooling anyone and would not attempt to hide his
past connection to the party. Anastassiades could help
Kasoulides's chances, however, by toning his
anti-Papadopoulos rhetoric, which seemed counter-productive
at this point. (Note: Under Cypriot electoral rules,
Kasoulides must resign from DISY before standing as an
independent candidate)
¶5. (C) Rather than seeking to break the coalition that
brought Papadopoulos to power, Kasoulides would attempt to
peel off dissatisfied voters from each component party. AKEL
had problems within the ranks, he was convinced, with perhaps
one-third of its members unhappy with the President's
management of the Cyprus Problem. Kasoulides had begun
contacts with the disaffected. AKEL bosses Dimitris
Christofias and Nicolas Katsourides would not stand idly,
however. Kasoulides believed the Communist leaders would
stress to the rank-and-file that linking with Papadopoulos,
while ideologically hard to swallow, was AKEL's only path to
power. As such, the party would not field its own candidate
in 2008.
¶6. (C) Socialist EDEK also seemed split, Kasoulides
believed, into pro- and anti-coalition ranks. Again, perhaps
one-third of its voters opposed the government's policies.
Despite a clear inability to advance to the second round,
EDEK would field a candidate in 2008, as it had in all prior
elections. Rather than leader Yiannakis Omirou, whose
personal popularity trailed the party's, EDEK might run
octogenarian party founder Vassos Lyssarides, whose numbers
were higher. Regardless of candidate, EDEK would shop its
support in the second round to the highest bidder.
Kasoulides made no secret of the fact that he was counting on
Lyssarides's support.
¶7. (C) He also believed he could obtain backing from smaller
parties like EUROKO. All told, internal polling was showing
support for his presidential candidacy at 40 percent. Taking
into account the historical abstention rate on the island,
Kasoulides considered 46 percent the winning number. Gaining
those six points looked difficult, however.
------------------------
Incumbent Not Lying Down
------------------------
¶8. (C) The President remained popular in Cyprus, the
opposition candidate believed, despite the lack of movement
toward a settlement. Papadopoulos's hard-line message played
well to an electorate growing ever more passive about de
facto partition, and his control over media ensured that RoC
policies won favorable coverage. That said, to win
re-election, Kasoulides thought Papadopoulos would need to
feign progress on solving the CyProb. "The President will
tout some breakthrough in the July 8 Gambari Process
negotiations," he ventured, "timed for maximum political
effect." Another weapon at the President's disposal was the
bidding process to explore for offshore Cypriot oil --
Kasoulides expected the government to announce a winner in
the run-up to the elections, benefiting the incumbent
candidate.
¶9. (C) Aware that not all voters were happy with the status
quo vis-a-vis the CyProb, Papadopoulos had prepared two
divergent messages. To the "no" voters he would play the
nationalist card, bashing Turkish intransigence and
pooh-poohing the authority of Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet
Ali Talat to negotiate in good faith. For pro-solution
types, however, such as the disaffected EDEK and AKEL cadres,
he would offer (tepid) support for a bi-zonal, bi-communal
federal solution and determination to move the July 8 process
forward.
----------------------------------------
Solving the Cyprus Problem in Two Phases
----------------------------------------
¶10. (C) Unlike "goalkeeper" Papadopoulos, who could only
"not lose" the big game, Kasoulides hoped to score the
winning goal. In his own approach to resolving the Cyprus
Problem, he, too, sought to satisfy two camps. Populating
the first were Cypriots who, troubled by the specter of
imminent partition, believed the RoC should ink an immediate
deal that gave numerous concessions to the Turkish Cypriot
community. On the opposite side were island residents who
had grown comfortable -- and wealthy -- with the status quo
and thus saw no urgency in reaching a settlement. Turkish
Cypriots likely fell into one or the other category as well,
he thought. Youth from both sides tended to favor the
latter, having had little inter-communal exposure.
¶11. (C) A two-phased solution was in order, Kasoulides
argued. In Phase One, the new Cyprus government would grant
numerous protections to the Turkish Cypriot community, such
as a continued role for guarantor power Turkey, the
imperative of dual (Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot)
majorities for certain legislation, and limits over refugee
returns. Such concessions were necessary to win T/C buy-in
to the new state of affairs, but they could not be permanent,
else deadlock and conflict would occur (as it did under the
1960 Constitution).
¶12. (C) Phase Two would see great changes on Cyprus.
Foreign troops would depart the island, for one. Veto rights
by community would disappear, and all displaced persons could
return to their homes. Cyprus would become a fully
independent nation, not a protectorate. Kasoulides gave no
timelines for the transition, implying it was open for
negotiations. Early versions of the Annan Plan contained
similar provisions, he claimed, but did not survive the later
rounds of talks. He sought the Ambassador's impressions on
his initiative.
¶13. (C) A sound Greek Cypriot negotiating strategy must be
flexible and not maximalist, the Ambassador responded. The
government should cooperate on confidence building measures
like the Ledra Street checkpoint, which could build momentum
and help along the July 8 process. Finally, the RoC must
avoid the temptation of thrashing Talat at every opportunity.
The Turkish Cypriot leader had taken a risky step in
challenging the Turkish generals on Ledra, for example, and
what was his reward? Derision from the other side that
weakened him further and has him playing to his own
nationalist elements.
--------
COMMENT:
--------
¶14. (C) For months if not years, Kasoulides's candidacy has
been an open secret in Nicosia, although scuttlebutt said he
would announce in summer, more the Cypriot norm. With
Papadopoulos playing "will he or won't he" regarding
re-election and with AKEL announcing it won't show its cards
until June, perhaps the DISY candidate saw an opportunity to
become the man of the hour -- not a bad strategy, really.
But can he win? While the most popular politician from the
opposition, respected even by his political foes, those
distinctions mean little when the three-party governing
coalition controls over sixty percent of registered voters.
From our small sample of contacts, we agree a minority of
AKEL voters are unsatisfied with the President, but that
party is legendary at enforcing voter discipline come
Election Day, and Christofias seems satisfied with the
current power-sharing arrangement. Nor is Kasoulides likely
to win many votes on the CyProb, since, despite a clear lack
of progress, polled citizens continue to appraise positively
Papadopoulos's hard-line handling of the national issue.
Taken together, the challenger's chances for 2008 seem slim.
SCHLICHER