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Viewing cable 09STOCKHOLM389, SWEDISH MINDEF ON AFGHANISTAN AND SWEDISH DEFENSE REFORM

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09STOCKHOLM389 2009-06-26 14:42 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Stockholm
VZCZCXRO0036
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHSM #0389/01 1771442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261442Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4454
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000389 
 
EUR PASS A/S Gordon 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL OREP MARR EUN MOPS AF SW
 
SUBJECT: SWEDISH MINDEF ON AFGHANISTAN AND SWEDISH DEFENSE REFORM 
 
1.  Summary.  On May 29, Swedish Defense Minister Sten Tolgfors told 
CODEL Tanner: 1) Sweden is focusing on development and army training 
in Afghanistan, but has concerns about the capabilities of the 
Afghan National Police; 2) Swedish defense reforms signal the 
capacity for more international cooperation and a more professional 
armed forces; and 3) Sweden's EU Presidency will press for better 
readiness and force generation capabilities for the EU Common 
Mission.  End Summary. 
 
2.  A delegation of U.S. Congressional Representatives, led by 
Representative John Tanner (D-TN), and accompanied by the Charge, 
visited Swedish Defense Minister Sten Tolgfors on May 29.  The 
members included Representatives John Boozman (R-AR), Jo Ann Emerson 
(R-MO), Jeff Miller (R-FL), Dennis Moore (D-KS), Mike Ross (D-AR), 
Mike Turner (R-OH), Ben Chandler (D-KY) and NATO Parliamentary 
Secretary General David Hobbs (UK).  Tolgfors was accompanied by 
Chief of Staff Jakob Keifer, Director General for Political Affairs 
Johan Raeder, and MoD US Desk Officer Staffan Jonsatter. 
 
Swedish Move from Neutrality to Military Non-Alignment 
------------ 
 
3.  In his opening statement, Tolgfors reviewed the Swedish 
transition from neutrality, to military non-alignment in peace with 
the intent to stay neutral in time of war, to the current posture of 
military non-alignment with the option of giving or receiving 
military aid if another EU Member State were attacked.  He expressed 
dissatisfaction with Sweden's historical practice of "defining 
itself by what we are not" and seeks to define Sweden by "what we 
are."  Tolgfors framed this statement as a maturing of the current 
security policy formulation towards Swedish armed forces that are 
readily available to be used at home and abroad, and to both 
contribute and receive forces in the event of a regional crisis. 
 
Afghanistan:  National Police Needs Attention 
------------ 
 
4.  Tolgfors indicated his enthusiasm for Sweden's presence in 
Afghanistan, noting the impending increase from 410 to 500 troops 
and emphasis on a broader geographic presence in the northern 
provinces under the control of the Swedish-led PRT in Mazar-e 
Sharif.  Tolgfors expressed the clear political will to contribute 
medevac helicopters to Afghanistan, but said they are not yet 
technically ready.  Once Swedish helicopters have completed 
procurement and are properly adapted for use in the Afghanistan 
environment, they will provide an even more important means of 
covering larger swaths of territory.  Sweden is also now preparing 
to send troops to train one Afghan Army battalion. For the longer 
term, Tolgfors asked rhetorically who will take the lead when the 
presence in Mazar-e Sharif grows beyond a PRT. 
 
5.  Sweden is also working in development and diplomacy, increasing 
foreign aid to Afghanistan by 60 percent to 60 million USD.  Sweden 
has opened an embassy in Kabul and is increasingly focused on police 
and rule of law training, such as with prosecutors.  Sweden is also 
putting pressure on the Afghanistan government to protect human 
rights, especially with respect to capital punishment, treatment of 
prisoners, and corruption, in response to domestic Swedish 
concerns. 
 
6.  For the short term, Tolgfors noted that the upcoming elections 
are one important challenge and credible progress in governmental 
basics like building roads is mandatory.  A second immediate 
challenge will be deterring insurgent attacks on new ISAF supply 
lines through Mazar-e Sharif (under the Swedish PRT) which will 
impact the provincial security situation.  An increase in IED 
attacks has already begun, with the death of a Norwegian soldier 
last month. 
 
7.  In response to a question from Rep. Turner regarding 
intervention against opium growers, Tolgfors noted that the PRT 
sector controlled by Sweden is not a producer, but a distribution 
channel.  He described Swedish and general European sensitivities to 
using military forces for a police action.  Turner pressed the issue 
further, noting that drugs are part of the overall structure for the 
insurgency.  Without a strategic effort to cut out that funding, 
there will continue to be extremist activity. 
 
8.  Tolgfors mentioned that increased training for the Afghan 
National Police (ANP) was hampered by a lack of European police 
advisers. He highlighted the domestic political difficulties for 
European countries that already lack sufficient domestic police 
forces to ship out experienced officers to Afghanistan.  Tolgfors 
described this not as a lack of available trained people, but rather 
the poor political optic of sending police overseas, when there is 
still crime at home. He also hypothesized that experienced police 
officers with an interest in serving in Afghanistan were more likely 
to simply sign up for military service.  Raeder mentioned that he 
had seen reports of up to 30 percent of the ANP being addicted to 
drugs. 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000389  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
Swedish Army Reforms Illustrate Changing Policy 
------------ 
 
9.  Tolgfors highlighted the governing coalitions push to reform the 
Swedish military to an all-volunteer force, which goes into effect 
next year.  Traditionally, Swedish conscript forces required one 
year of training and two years of service for missions restricted to 
domestic service.  In contrast, studies show that all volunteer 
forces can be better trained, have longer careers, and be deployed 
as part of international missions.  The change to an all-volunteer 
military shows Sweden's move from a reactive defense policy to one 
in which Sweden "builds security with others," according to 
Tolgfors.  However, he predicted that there will need to be a 
national decision on the issue soon.  In response to a query from 
Rep. Emerson about the impact of global economic turbulence on 
defense allocations, Tolgfors noted no detrimental effect. 
 
Climate Change is a Security Issue 
------------ 
 
10.  In response to a question from Rep. Boozman, Tolgfors 
highlighted the importance of climate change on emerging conflicts. 
He mentioned specifically fighting over water rights and territorial 
tensions exacerbated by migration patterns. 
 
Sea Issues 
------------ 
 
11.  Tolgfors mentioned two close regional issues.  First, that 
increased sea traffic in the Baltic, particularly related to energy 
transport, might cause conflicts or generally raise tensions. 
Second, Tolgfors suggested that the United States should pay 
particular attention to the Barents Sea.  Tolgfors also mentioned 
that the EU needs to work more closely on sea-related defense 
issues, primarily in maritime domain awareness and exchange of 
recognized sea picture information. 
 
Russia:  Some Real Strengths, but More Shows of Strength 
------------ 
 
12.  Described as an enigma by Rep. Chandler, Russia was the focus 
of an extended colloquy by Tolgfors.  He posited that Russia's wish 
is to create the perception of strength by, first, outspoken foreign 
policy positions, and, second, through military exercises.  The 
reaction from Western governments can often encourage Russia to 
continue the pattern of belligerence.  He noted that while some 
parts of the Russian military, particularly the rapid response 
forces used in Georgia, are highly effective, the general military 
force is underfunded and weak.  Likewise, Russian's energy sector 
pulls along the entire Russian economy, but most other sectors are 
struggling. Russia is also facing a significant decline in 
population and low vitality (noting the average life span for a 
Russian male is 58 years).  Responding to a query from Rep. Chandler 
about whether a long-standing friendship was possible with Russia, 
Tolgfors asked rhetorically whether an alternative existed. 
 
North Korea: Best Response is to Stay Cool and be Firm 
------------ 
 
13.  Tolgfors noted the presence of a small number of Swedish troops 
in Panmunjom working on the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission 
in conjunction with Swiss troops.  These troops serve in a symbolic 
capacity to supervise the Armistice Treaty between North and South 
Korean.  Raeder indicated that North Korea has indicated repeatedly 
that it no longer feels bound by the Armistice which leaves the 
Swedish and Swiss troops in a theoretically vulnerable position. 
However, the Swedes see no imminent danger to their troops.  Raeder 
suggested that North Korea's show of strength might be accompanied 
by some form of internal transition that requires assertive behavior 
by emerging leadership. 
 
NATO: Ask Us After the Election 
------------ 
 
14.  Tolgfors noted that the government coalition promised not to 
take up NATO membership during the present term.  There are members 
in the ruling coalition who remain opposed to NATO membership, and 
for the opposition NATO membership is a "red line" issue.   However, 
NATO membership is completely distinguishable from the Afghanistan 
mission for most of the opposition and is a separate political 
issue.  Tolgfors used this as one of several examples where focusing 
on specific activities under a NATO umbrella is relatively easy to 
gain consensus for, whereas a general membership agenda is harder. 
 
EU Defense Goals for Sweden's Presidency 
------------ 
 
15.  In closing the meeting, Tolgfors emphasized three Swedish 
defense-related goals for the EU presidency.  First, he advocated 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000389  003 OF 003 
 
 
the increased usability of Swedish forces, especially since Sweden 
is scheduled to lead EU Battle Groups in 2011 and 2014.  He hoped to 
apply pressure for a 10-day readiness standard for EU Common Mission 
needs.  Second, he was generally concerned about the EU's force 
generation capability.  Third, he focused on coordinating defense 
materials planning among the 27 EU nations.  Noting that each EU 
presidency term has involved an unexpected crisis, Tolgfors noted 
the importance of Sweden being prepared to exercise crisis 
leadership. 
 
SILVERMAN