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Viewing cable 06ANKARA6500, Scenesetter for CODEL Shays' Nov. 27-29 Visit to Turkey
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06ANKARA6500 | 2006-11-24 13:44 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara |
VZCZCXRO7803
OO RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHAK #6500/01 3281344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241344Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0060
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006500
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD PGOV TU IZ IR LE SY AM EUN
SUBJECT: Scenesetter for CODEL Shays' Nov. 27-29 Visit to Turkey
(U) Sensitive but unclassified - please protect accordingly.
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Turkey broadly agrees with U.S. goals in Iraq and
tangibly supports our military effort there. However, Turkish
concerns about Iraq's stability and future, as well as the PKK
issue, complicate the relationship. Turkey has generally good
intentions in promoting Middle East peace, though it has made
occasional missteps such as meeting with Hamas. Progress on
Turkey's EU bid is endangered by the Cyprus issue. There is rising
concern here that the U.S. Congress will approve an Armenian
genocide resolution for the first time in 2007. This would have a
deleterious effect on our relations, and could endanger support
Turkey provides for our efforts in Iraq. End summary.
Iraq: An Uncomfortable Partnership
----------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Turkey shares the U.S. goal of a unified, democratic Iraq
that is secure within its borders. While Kurdish aspirations and
the PKK presence in northern Iraq remain a significant concern, the
government is contributing to efforts to ensure the success of the
country as a whole. The GOT vocally supported the participation of
all ethnic and religious groups in the elections and the conference
of the Iraqi constitution, a dialogue of hard-line Sunni leaders
with US Ambassador Khalilzad, and a meeting of tribal leaders from
the city of Talafar in an effort to calm the situation there. It
provided extensive training to over 300 Iraqi diplomats and
political party members, and spearheaded a "neighbors meeting"
process which has helped Iraqi government leaders interact with
their regional counterparts.
¶3. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to allow the use of its territory as a
logistical hub has been a crucial asset in our Iraq operations.
Two-thirds of gasoline and diesel fuel shipments (3 million gallons
per day) for the Iraqi people and 25% of sustainment fuel for the
coalition crosses into Iraq through the Ground Line of Communication
at Habur Border Gate. Since Turkey approved the use of Incirlik Air
Base as a cargo hub to support coalition operation in Iraq in May
2005, over 152 million pounds of equipment has been shipped to US
troops. Six C-17 aircraft now deliver from Incirlik the amount of
supplies it took 9-10 planes to deliver from Germany. Additionally
ten KC-135 tanker aircraft based at Incirlik since 2003 have run
2800 refueling sorties, delivering 192 million pounds of fuel in
support of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Turkey has four personnel assigned to NTM-I in Iraq and, under this
rubric, has trained 57 Iraqi military officers in Turkey. Iraqis
have pledged to send officers to at least seven additional courses
this year.
¶4. (SBU) Turkey has been frustrated, however, by events in Iraq.
Many here are concerned by the inability of the GOI to contain
sectarian violence. Iranian influence and Kurdish designs on Kirkuk
and other areas south of the green line have led Turks to fear the
disintegration of the country and the establishment of an
independent Kurdish state. This would be a significant negative
development for Turkey and could threaten security in this volatile
region.
Opportunities and Challenges in Economic Ties
---------------------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) Turkey's private sector could play a major role in ensuring
Iraq's economic success. Turkish-Iraqi trade volume was $ 3.2
billion in 2005. Of this, $ 2.7 billion was exports from Turkey to
Iraq, a nearly four-fold increase from 2003 levels. Turkish
companies and the GOT are keenly interested in developing
hydrocarbon reserves, especially natural gas, in the north for
export to Turkey and Europe.
¶6. (SBU) Turkish companies in Iraq have been successful, but they
have also faced significant challenges. Insurgents have killed over
100 Turkish truckers and other contractors, chiefly in 2004-2005.
Some companies who have subcontracted to major U.S. firms such as
KBR and Fluor have complained to us of significant payment delays.
¶7. (U) Turkey exports 270 MW of electricity to northern Iraq. Both
countries aim to increase electricity exports from Turkey to 1,000
MW, which equates to 25% of Iraq's current peak capacity. Turkey
has pledged $50M in assistance to Iraq for energy, health and other
projects, which remains mostly undisbursed for security reasons.
PKK Issue Complicates Turkish Cooperation
-----------------------------------------
¶8. (SBU) Since the inception in the mid 1980s of the Kurdish
separatist terrorist organization PKK's violent campaign in Turkey,
over 35,000 Turks have been killed. The organization called off its
unilateral cease-fire in 2004, and uses its safe haven in northern
Iraq to train for and plan attacks against Turkish security forces,
civilians, and foreign tourists. Over 600 have died so far in 2006.
When Turkey threatened to carry out cross-border operations into
northern Iraq in the summer of 2006, the Iraqi Government agreed to
ANKARA 00006500 002 OF 003
take steps to limit the PKK's freedom of action. The USG appointed
Special Envoy Gen. (r) Joseph Ralston to work with Turkey and Iraq -
and within the USG interagency - on steps to counter the PKK.
¶9. (SBU) Following Gen. Ralston's appointment and his meetings with
senior leaders in both countries, Iraqi PM Maliki issued a statement
asserting that organizations such as the PKK have no place in Iraq,
and Iraqi Kurdish leaders persuaded the PKK to declare a unilateral
cease-fire on Oct. 1.
¶10. (SBU) Turkish officials have dismissed the cease-fire and called
on the PKK to permanently lay down its arms, renounce violence, and
surrender to Turkish authorities. PKK terrorist attacks in Turkey
have slowed since the cease-fire commenced, but have not stopped
altogether. PKK activity during the harsh winter months in
southeast Turkey is generally low anyway, and the press reports that
jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has given the GOT a deadline of
mid-May 2007 to take certain unspecified steps to reach out Turkey's
Kurds.
¶11. (SBU) GOT officials are skeptical of Iraq's latest steps to
contain the PKK and are equally skeptical of the cease-fire
announcement. Iraqi Kurdish leaders seem to place the onus of the
PKK problem squarely on Turkey, claiming that all Turkey needs to do
is give PKK members full amnesty and provide more rights for its
Kurdish populations. On his Nov. 16-17 visit PM Maliki assured
Turkish leaders that he took the PKK issue seriously, but offered
few tangible specifics.
¶12. (SBU) Turkey is willing to give Ralston a chance to achieve
concrete results, but ultimately it expects the U.S. and/or the
Iraqis to deal with the PKK's continued presence in Iraq. Failing
this, and should attacks intensify once again in the spring,
pressure will mount for Turkey to act unilaterally.
Regional Diplomacy
------------------
¶13. (SBU) Given its shared historical, cultural and religious ties
with countries in the region, as well as its geographic location
bridging both east and west, Turkey feels both a right and a
responsibility to engage countries of concern on issues of
importance to the international community. Turkey has worked hard
in recent years to re-establish relations with Iran and Syria both
to bolster its fight against the PKK, which has a presence in those
countries, and to strengthen its economic ties. It also believes
that, as the only Muslim country that has good relations with both
Israel and the Palestinians, it can play a special role in the peace
process. Despite Western disapproval, Foreign Minister Gul welcomed
a Hamas delegation to Ankara, and the PM and FM continue to engage
the Iranian and Syrian governments. In all cases, they tell us they
are sending the right messages in private.
¶14. (SBU) Turkey was highly critical of Israel's response in July
against Hizbullah attacks emanating from Lebanon. However, Turkey
responded immediately to the humanitarian crisis by opening its
ports for the transit of evacuees, including of 1,700 Americans who
transited Incirlik Air Base. Turkey has deployed 900 troops, a
frigate and a personnel transport ship to support the UN
peacekeeping operation there -- despite domestic opposition -- and
has opened its sea and airport for the maintenance of UNIFIL
equipment and the transit of troops to UNIFIL. The GOT has been in
full agreement with our goal of supporting the Siniora government.
¶15. (SBU) The MFA, military and many in the ruling Justice and
Development (AK) Party government view a nuclear Iran as a threat to
Turkey, but all view diplomacy as the only road to a solution and
therefore insist on engagement. The GOT is averse to broad economic
sanctions that could disrupt a growing commercial relationship with
Iran, particularly energy imports, but is willing to consult with us
on targeted financial sanctions. The government's public statements
-- which we are told match what they say in private -- on Iran's
nuclear program have significantly strengthened since Iran resumed
uranium enrichment. You may want to welcome these statements and to
encourage a continued strong message.
Turkey/EU/Cyprus: Rough Seas
----------------------------
¶16. (U) Turkey's EU accession process, never smooth, is potentially
heading into rough seas. The issue is the extension of Turkey's
pre-existing Customs Union with the EU to all new EU members,
including the Republic of Cyprus (ROC) which Turkey does not
officially recognize. The Turks have a legal obligation to open at
least some ports and airports to GOC shipping/goods by early to mid
December. The Turkish government has steadfastly said it cannot do
so unless the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots (TCs) is lifted.
The GOT believes the EU made a commitment to open up trade with TCs
following their "yes" vote on the Annan Plan referendum in April
2004 which it has yet to live up to. If no compromise solution can
be found, the December European Council likely will decide to
suspend a number of trade-related Acquis chapters. It remains to be
ANKARA 00006500 003 OF 003
seen how serious the Turkey-EU rupture will be. The USG strongly
supports Turkey's EU vocation as good for both Turkey and Europe.
Armenian Genocide Resolution and U.S.-Turkey Relations
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶17. (U) In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. midterm election,
Turks started to raise with Embassy officials questions regarding
the possibility of a sense of the Congress resolution recognizing
the Armenian Genocide. This remains a neuralgic issue in Turkey.
When a similar resolution nearly made it to the House floor in
November 2000, when U.S.-Turkish relations were on excellent
footing, their Ambassador had his bags packed, ready to leave; other
sanctions were under consideration. When the lower house of the
French parliament passed a law in October that would criminalize
denial of an Armenian Genocide, reaction in Ankara was strong,
though measured. While the bill has yet to become law,
Turkish-French bilateral mil-mil relations are currently frozen and
trade has suffered.
¶18. (SBU) We believe reaction to a U.S. Congressional resolution
would be considerably stronger. In an election year -- 2007
features both presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey --
with nationalist feelings running high, reaction likely would be
swift and retaliatory, despite our efforts over the past 18 months
to put our bilateral relationship back on even footing. Examples of
actions that would damage our regional priorities: We could be
denied use of Incirlik Air Base, which currently serves as a hub to
move close to 60% of air cargo to Coalition forces in Iraq. Habur
Gate on the Turkey-Iraq border is also a key transit point for
sustainment fuel for our troops, as well as for Iraq in general.
Any slowdown or cut-off there would hurt U.S. warfighters in Iraq.
Economic Snapshot
-----------------
¶19. (SBU) The AK Party government has implemented key economic and
structural reforms that have supported the economic recovery from
the deep 2001 financial crisis. An average GDP growth rate of
nearly 8% over the past three years is one of the highest in the
world, foreign investment has strengthened, and inflation has been
subdued. The IMF is currently overseeing an $ 10 billion stand-by
program and the World Bank's loan portfolio of $ 6 billion is one of
the largest for any country. Reforms and optimism engendered by the
EU accession process have also bolstered economic performance.
¶20. (SBU) Yet, despite these achievements, the current account
deficit is large (7-8% of GDP this year) and the government remains
heavily indebted. This leaves the economy vulnerable to market
swings that could threaten economic and political stability.
Unemployment and poverty also remain serious problems. These
vulnerabilities were highlighted since mid-May by a global market
pullback that coincided with increased political uncertainty in
Turkey, leading to a 16% fall in the exchange rate, and 18% drop in
the stock market, and a sharp increase in domestic interest rates.
The central bank's and government's strong economic policy response,
which included a 4% hike in official interest rates, allowed the
economy to weather the turbulence and markets have nearly returned
to their pre-May levels.
WILSON