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Viewing cable 07PARIS1283, ELECTION SNAPSHOT: UNINFORMATIVE POLLS, URBAN
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
07PARIS1283 | 2007-03-30 14:44 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Paris |
VZCZCXRO0280
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFR #1283/01 0891444
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301444Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6130
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001283
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: UNINFORMATIVE POLLS, URBAN
VIOLENCE, AND "NATIONAL IDENTITY" ISSUE ADD UNCERTAINTY TO
CAMPAIGN
REF: PARIS 1155 AND PREVIOUS
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Three weeks from the April 22 first-round
of France's presidential election, center-right former
Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist
Poitou-Charentes Region President Segolene Royal remain in
the lead. Francois Bayrou, head of the centrist Union for
French Democracy Party, remains within striking distance of
the leaders in the latest polls, but has not renewed his
mid-February to mid-March surge in poll numbers. Right-wing
extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen is holding steady at under 15
percent of first-round voter intentions. The unreliability
of French polling figures is as notorious as the
unpredictability of French voters. An 8 percent increase in
registered voters, resulting in the highest numbers since
1981, also makes election predictions hazardous -- and
testifies to the importance of this election in voters' minds.
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONT'D: The events of March 27 could
change the candidates' standings, however, after groups of
youths assailed police, set fires, and looted stores at the
Paris train station that serves as the rail head for the
city's poor, northern suburbs. This highly-publicized
flare-up of urban violence immediately permeated election
coverage and re-emphasized left-right differences on the
linked issues of immigration, urban safety, law-and-order and
national identity, with the Socialists generally on the
defensive. To counter Sarkozy on these hot-button issues,
Royal once again unsettled traditional leftists by
encouraging supporters to proudly show the French flag and
sing the national anthem (patriotic symbols not associated
with the French left). After quitting his post as Interior
Minister March 26, Sarkozy plunged into a well-planned,
whirlwind schedule as a full-time presidential candidate,
energetically defending his record as France's top law
enforcement official and his vision of an activist state able
to compel respect for law across all segments of society.
Bayrou, for his part, continued his stolid fulminations
against both left and right. END SUMMARY.
CURRENT STANDING OF THE THREE (OR FOUR?) LEADERS
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶3. (U) Though there will be twelve candidates on the ballot
in the first round of France's presidential election April
22, only three, possibly four, of those candidates have any
realistic chance of making it into the second-round run-off
May 6. Former Interior Minister and President of the Union
for a Popular Movement (UMP) party Nicolas Sarkozy is still
the first-round leader -- though by varying margins -- in all
polls. Poitou-Charentes Region President and Socialist Party
(PS) candidate Segolene Royal has solidified her second place
standing, while centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF)
leader Francois Bayrou, though no longer rising the polls as
he did between mid-February and Mid-March, is also not
falling significantly. Right wing extremist Jean-Marie Le
Pen continues to be credited by all polls with more than 10
percent and less than 15 percent of first-round voter
intentions. A poll of first-round voter intentions released
March 29 and taken March 26 and 27 by the BVA polling
organization credits Sarkozy with 28 percent, Royal with 27
percent, Bayrou with 20 percent and Le Pen with 13 percent of
voters' support. The conventional wisdom remains that
Sarkozy (1), Royal (2) , Bayrou (3), Le Pen (4) is still the
likeliest finishing order on the morning of April 23.
PREDICTIONS HAZARDOUS; POLLS UNINFORMATIVE
------------------------------------------
¶4. (U) That said, the conventional wisdom, when it comes to
projecting what French voters will actually do on election
day, is highly unreliable. French voters are notorious for a
defiant streak that leads them often to vote against
expectations. The conventional wisdom never projected that
Le Pen might get into the second round of the 2002
presidential election, nor did it project that, in the 2005
referendum on the EU Constitution, the 'no' would win with a
resounding majority. Adding to the uncertainty is the
public's awareness that the upcoming election represents a
watershed choice of direction for long overdue reform, even
as voters' apprehension about the future, the volatility of
their preferences and their mistrust of the political class
remain at record highs. The net result is that any
predictions about first round vote totals are hazardous;
current polls may well be a very misleading guide to final
PARIS 00001283 002 OF 003
vote counts.
¶5. (SBU) The raw data gathered by pollsters in France is
heavily adjusted, in different ways by the different polling
organizations, to make it better reflect "the reality" of
opinion. For example, respondents to polls are assumed to
systematically under-report allegiance to Le Pen, so
pollsters adjust -- sometimes by as much as doubling them --
Le Pen's numbers in the raw data. The percentages
represented by these adjustments of course have to come from
somewhere -- often in large part from Sarkozy's higher
numbers in the raw data, under the assumption that
respondents over-represent their allegiance to Sarkozy, but
will in fact vote for Le Pen or some other candidate. The
polls therefore only confirm what everybody already knows,
that in the first round at least four-fifths of voters will
vote for either Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou or Le Pen. The exact
proportions in which voters' will do so, however, remains
highly uncertain, with some analysts predicting that Sarkozy
and Royal will both finish with commanding leads over Bayrou
and Le Pen, and others predicting that the four will finish
within a half-dozen points of each other, all under 25
percent. Those who see the four continuing to converge,
because Sarkozy and Royal remain unconvincing beyond their
core partisans, do not dismiss the possibility of Bayrou (or
even Le Pen) going to the second round against either Sarkozy
or Royal.
COPS AND HOODLUMS -- PRISM FOR POLARIZING ISSUES
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶6. (SBU) Poll numbers are likely to change in the wake of
the March 27 events at Paris' North train station. This
flare-up of urban violence that pitted police against bands
of youths that afternoon and evening brought about an
immediate change in the dominant issues of the campaign.
Until then, the first-round campaign had largely gravitated
around the issues of purchasing power, generating jobs,
education reform and protecting the environment. March
27th's reminder of the violence and destruction that ran
through France's immigrant suburbs in October and November of
2005, re-focused the public, the candidates and the media
overnight on the complex of issues that the French confusedly
subsume under the rubric "immigration."
¶7. (SBU) The "immigration" catch-all includes everything
from the debate over immigration policy and the rights of the
undocumented, to differences over what to do about unsafe
streets in metropolitan areas and how to adapt the "national
identity" to immigration-driven social diversity. It remains
to be seen if these immigration, security and identity issues
will remain dominant through the rest of the campaign.
Further clashes between police and immigrant youths against
backgrounds of fires and looting could easily marginalize
most other issues in making up voters' minds.
¶8. (SBU) The events of March 27 have also had the effect of
accentuating traditional left-right differences on
immigration, security and "national identity" issues,
polarizing the debate to the detriment of Bayrou's centrist
message. Sarkozy, in his direct, energetic way, vigorously
defended his vision of an activist, effective state that
equally and sternly enforces the law throughout society for
the benefit of the law-abiding, especially the law-abiding in
poor, crime-ridden neighborhoods. In remarks to the press as
he pursued a hectic schedule of campaign appearances, Sarkozy
stressed that the individual, whose detention sparked the
violence, was an undocumented immigrant with a criminal
record caught riding without a ticket. To increase the
pressure on the Socialists, he questioned if they were
prepared to defend free-loaders on the system. Royal
identified the aggressive policing tactics associated with
Sarkozy as being part of the problem, and decried the tension
and mistrust that characterizes relations between police and
immigrant youth. She also made clear that she did not defend
the individual whose detention set off the incident,
stressing that users of public transport should of course pay
for their tickets.
¶9. (SBU) Bayrou, for his part, lambasted both left and
right, and used the issue to make the case for the futility
of polarizing policies, and therefore the necessity of his
centrist, best-of-both alternative. Sounding exactly like
Royal and the Socialists, Bayrou denounced Sarkozy for
PARIS 00001283 003 OF 003
having "chosen repression" while, sounding exactly like
Sarkozy and French conservatives, he simultaneously denounced
"the left's legacy of laxism." Credibility on law-and-order
issues has always been Sarkozy's strong suit, and it seems
that the renewed salience of these security issues will work
to solidify support for Sarkozy, unless his detractors are
more successful in portraying his approach as part of the
problem.
ROYAL ADDS PATRIOTISM TO HER VISION OF CENTER-LEFT
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶10. (SBU) Royal had earlier in the week -- again --
unsettled traditional leftists and many old-line PS party
leaders by encouraging her supporters (and all French
citizens) to proudly show the flag, and by ending her rallies
with all present singing the French national anthem. The
"tri-color" and the "Marseillaise" are patriotic symbols
closely associated with the French right, not the French
left. In appropriating these symbols and giving them a
prominent place in her campaign, Royal recognized how social
values throughout French society have been, in recent years,
trending toward the traditional and conservative. The number
of voters who identify themselves as "of the left" is smaller
than ever, and Royal is well aware that a second-round
victory for her depends on winning the support of a range of
centrist voters. Whether or not this appropriation of
patriotic symbols, associated with the French right, presages
further, substantive moves by Royal to the center, away from
the PS's traditional policy prescriptions remains to be seen.
Royal's appropriation of these national symbols was also
intended to counter Sarkozy's popular proposal for the
establishment of a Ministry of Immigration and National
Identity (ref).
RECORD NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS
----------------------------------
¶11. (SBU) Also this week the Interior Ministry released the
final voter registration figures for the upcoming election.
Never have so many Frenchmen and women registered to vote.
Almost 44.5 million citizens are registered to vote in the
upcoming presidential and legislative elections, an increase
of almost 8 percent over the number of registered voters in
the last presidential election (2002), and the highest
registration rate since the watershed presidential election
of 1981. While significant registration increases are common
in the years preceding an election, there has been an
exceptional surge in voter registration among young people,
including in immigrant suburban neighborhoods.
COMMENT
-------
¶12. (SBU) There is unprecedented public interest in the
upcoming election, and there are an unprecedentedly large
number of voters registered to participate in it.
Apprehension, volatility and mistrust characterize the
electorate, and a large portion of voters remain undecided.
Which two of the leading candidates will come out on top in
the first round is still very uncertain. How the candidates
perform in the final weeks -- and how deftly they react to
unforeseen developments like the flare-up of unrest -- will
be critical to their final vote totals. End Summary.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
STAPLETON