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Viewing cable 09ANKARA297,
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ANKARA297 | 2009-02-25 15:35 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara |
VZCZCXRO2296
PP RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #0297/01 0561535
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251535Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8896
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 5427
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 3633
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000297
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPT FOR EUR/SE, EEB/BTA/TPP
DEPT PLEASE PASS USTR MMOWREY
COMMERCE FOR CRUSNAK AND KNAJDI
TREASURY FOR FPARODI
E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN TU
SUBJ: TURKEY'S AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR RUNNING ON EMPTY
Ref: ANKARA 118
¶1. (U) This is a joint Embassy Ankara/Consulate
General Istanbul cable. This cable is sensitive but
unclassified.
¶2. (SBU) Summary. Turkey's automotive sector is in
desperate straits due to the collapse in European
demand for automotive goods. For years, the sector
has been a model of Turkey's export-oriented growth
philosophy and, in 2008, it became Turkey's largest
export sector (surpassing steel and textiles), with
total exports of USD 18.3 billion (80% of Turkish
automotive production). However, auto exports fell
dramatically in late 2008, dropping -35.4% in the
fourth quarter. This has continued into 2009, with
January numbers showing a 64% YOY decrease. The
sector's problems are having (and will continue to
have) serious effects on the wider economy. Some
1.3 million people depend directly or indirectly on
the sector for employment, and the GOT is
understandably eager to avoid factory closures and
layoffs (although these have already started, with
over a thousand announced layoffs and more to come).
Despite this desire, the GOT's policy response has
so far been rather tepid, with a great deal of talk
but little in the way of concrete assistance for the
sector. The stimulus package passed on February 18
contains some limited measures to help the sector,
and a new package focused on the automotive industry
is expected "soon," but industry has been
disappointed in the GOT response to date.
Regardless of what the GOT does or fails to do,
however, the sector will face troubled times until
demand picks up again. End summary.
Turkey's Automotive Sector
--------------------------
¶3. (U) The automotive industry in Turkey began its
rise immediately after the economic crisis in 2001,
benefiting from Turkey's increased emphasis on
export-oriented production. The industry saw rapid
growth, jumping from 346,000 automobiles in 2002 to
1.1 million in 2007. Exports also grew rapidly,
from 258,000 automobiles in 2002 to 820,000 in 2007,
with a value of USD 12.2 billion. The sector's
direct employment rose from 26,000 in 2002 to 47,500
in 2007. Support industries also grew rapidly, with
the auto parts industry providing 200,000 jobs as of
2007, generating USD 30 billion in revenue, and
exporting USD 2.8 billion worth of goods (again,
with 65% destined for European markets). In all,
the Foreign Trade Undersecretariat estimates that
the employment of 1.3 million people depends upon
automotive production or related service industries.
There are currently 15 manufacturing companies in
the automotive sector, most with foreign capital.
There are 4,000 auto parts producers, 185 of them
with foreign capital. Turkey is the largest
producer of buses in Europe, and the third largest
producer of light commercial vehicles.
2008: A Bright Beginning Foiled by the Crisis
---------------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) During the first half of 2008, the
automotive sector was on track for a record year.
Both domestic and foreign sales were up 25-30% on
the year and production was going to come in well
above the targeted 1.3 million units. According to
Dr. Ercan Tezer, Secretary General of the Automotive
Industry Association (OSD), this began to change
toward the end of the second quarter. At that time,
the number of new vehicle orders began falling fast,
led by falling demand in Europe (Note: Approximately
80% of Turkey's automotive production is exported,
of which 70% is destined for Europe. As a result,
Turkey's auto sector is extremely sensitive to
demand trends in Europe. End note.) The OSD began
advising its members to consider cutting back on
production to avoid an inventory overhang, but their
warning was largely ignored both by industry and the
GOT, which was eager to see continued growth (and
increasing tax revenues) in this profitable sector.
ANKARA 00000297 002 OF 004
Industry's reluctance to cut back meant that
production soon began to outpace demand, and
industry is now sitting on 150-160,000 unsold
vehicles (12% of annual production).
¶5. (SBU) Vural Kural, Head of the Turkish Sector
Assemblies and Economic Research Department at the
Union of Chambers and Commodities Exchanges of
Turkey (TOBB), painted a similar gloomy picture. Up
until April 2008, the automotive sector was
operating at full capacity, but it began to slow in
May and June before plummeting 14.3% YOY and 32.1%
YOY in July and August, respectively. By January
2009, automotive capacity utilization was 53.2%
lower than the previous January. The falloff in
units produced was even more dramatic, with a 63.4%
YOY decline in December 2008, bringing the sector
back to its 2004 level (Note: The discrepancy
between production and capacity utilization is due
to a decrease in overall capacity as factories began
to shutter in late 2008. End note.) Exports also
fell sharply, ending December down 49.4% from the
previous year (although overall value increased for
the year, due to the strong first quarter).
¶6. (U) Faced with low demand and overproduction, the
industry has reacted by temporarily shutting down
production lines. Ford Otosan, one of Turkey's
largest producers, announced in November that it
would be shutting down production at two factories
on five separate dates spread out over the following
four months. Other producers immediately followed
suit. On February 16, Ford announced that it would
be stopping production entirely February 26-March 15
and again March 27-31, citing deteriorating market
conditions. Following layoffs of 300 people in
December, Ford now employs 6200 people but noted
that it will have to reexamine its employment plan
in light of expected reductions in production. In
January, Turkey's largest automobile producer Tofas
(a partner of Italian Fiat) laid off 800 workers and
Componenta, a Finnish automotive casting firm, let
425 workers go. Kural stated that until the pending
inventory of 160,000 vehicles is sold off,
production will be more or less halted indefinitely.
The GOT Response (Or Lack Thereof)
---------------------------------
¶7. (SBU) Tezer noted that by late September 2008, it
had become obvious that the crisis, now in full
swing, was having a deeply negative effect and the
industry asked the GOT to implement a set of
measures to help the sector. Industry
representatives met with Deputy PM Nazim Ekren,
Finance Minister Kemal Unakitan, Trasury Minister
Mehmet Simsek, Foreign Trade Minister Kursad Tuzmen,
and one other minister that Tezer declined to name
(later confirmed to be Industry Minister Zafer
Caglayan). For two months, Tezer said, these
negotiations went nowhere. Then the GOT regained
interest, and a series of proposals were considered,
including:
-- Credit incentives for domestic consumers,
including a reduction in the 15% tax on automotive
loans (60% of domestic auto purchases are financed
through credit);
-- Incentives for continued R&D investment;
-- Funds and/or tax incentives to keep the workforce
in place and prevent layoffs; and
-- An incentive plan for investment, with the
possibility of substantial corporate tax reductions
depending on the size and location of the
investment.
In addition to the above proposals, ideas began to
circulate in the press for other incentives, such
as: reduced electricity costs, tax breaks for
purchasing environmentally-friendly vehicles, and
the reinstitution of a tax break for new car
ANKARA 00000297 003 OF 004
purchasers who trade in older vehicles (see reftel).
¶8. (SBU) On February 18, Parliament approved a broad
package of measures to stimulate the economy, some
of which will benefit the automotive sector.
Specifically for the auto sector, the GOT announced
an amnesty for fines and unpaid taxes on vehicles
older than 30 years. This is intended to encourage
the owners of old vehicles to sell their cars and
buy new ones. The anticipated tax discount on new
cars was not a part of the package, however.
(Comment: It seems unlikely someone so poor that
they are driving a 30-year-old car is going to be
enticed into buying a new vehicle simply because
they receive an amnesty from taxes and fines they
probably had no intention of paying anyway. End
comment.) The package also contained broader
measures not limited to the automotive sector -
these will be reported on septel.
¶9. (SBU) While Tezer welcomed the limited measures
in the new package, he was disappointed that it
included neither retail credit incentives nor large-
scale corporate tax incentives sought by industry.
Industry Minister Zafer Caglayan, in what has become
a weekly ritual, has repeatedly told the press that
targeted sectoral relief packages will be coming
"soon," and Tezer expressed his hope that later GOT
efforts will incorporate more of the industry's
ideas in this sectoral package. Deputy PM Ekren
announced on February 20 that the sectoral packages
will cover the textile, iron and steel, contracting,
automotive, tourism and maritime sectors, including
financing assistance and tax remedies. He also
added that Turkey's Eximbank would increase its loan
capabilities from USD 500 million to USD 1 billion
as part of the same package.
¶10. (SBU) Kural observed that the GOT is "showing
different faces to different people" in an attempt
to assure the G20, IMF, and local actors that their
sometimes conflicting concerns will all be
addressed. As a result, its policy response has
been chaotic. He also noted that he would like to
see more in the way of broad tax relief as a way to
immediately address the pressures on corporations
and to prevent further layoffs within the automotive
sector, but lamented that most of what he had seen
in the rumored sectoral packages involved
encouraging new investment spending. He criticized
the GOT for failing to assess the problem correctly,
saying that their policies rest on the assumption
that demand will return to "normal" (i.e. pre-crisis
levels) in the relatively short term and that
investment spending will therefore pay immediate
dividends. The idea that the crisis has introduced
a fundamental shift in the world economy - with an
end to soaring demand fueled by easy credit and a
shift to higher savings rates - is not one that
appeals to the GOT, Kural contended, because it
would require accepting that they need to adjust
policies for a longer-term approach.
Protectionism Redux
-------------------
¶11. (SBU) Trade protectionism has a long history in
Turkey, but it has been held in abeyance since 2001
as exports led the economy's impressive growth. Now
that growth has slowed, however, protectionist
tendencies are again beginning to surface. Tezer
complained that 70% of domestic auto purchases are
imported, and bemoaned the lack of import
protections to help local producers, as he alleged
exist in South Korea and Japan. He also observed
that the 80% of production that is exported is "too
high" and expressed hope for a 60/40 export/local
consumption mix in the future, observing that local
profit margins are higher and that stronger domestic
demand for domestically-produced autos would help
cushion the sector against future shocks. He
expressed his hope that Ankara would use policy
measures to encourage local sales of domestically-
produced vehicles, such as through the retail credit
ANKARA 00000297 004 OF 004
incentives.
Comment
-------
¶12. (SBU) Given the importance of the automotive and
automotive parts industries to Turkey's economy and
the relatively high wages in the sector, any
slowdown will have serious knock-on effects in the
larger economy as well as on government finances.
The GOT likely will pass a sectoral package to help
the sector, but the breadth of tax cuts that the
industry seems to expect will be difficult for a
government that is already struggling to match
declining tax revenues with its spending plans. The
automotive sector stimulus plan may help marginally
to ease the pain but, until demand recovers, more
production halts and layoffs are likely to come.
End comment.