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Viewing cable 06BRASILIA1968, BRAZIL: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON MINISTER OF
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BRASILIA1968 | 2006-09-18 16:22 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO6050
PP RUEHRG
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6680
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 5665
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 3929
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 4270
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 3433
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA PRIORITY 0299
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RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 3169
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 6466
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0990
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE PRIORITY 0142
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 1969
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 5782
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE PRIORITY 5454
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 2886
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO PRIORITY 8057
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001968
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY (DATE CHANGE - PARAGRAPH 2)
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON MINISTER OF
COMMUNICATIONS - CORRECTED COPY
BRASILIA 00001968 001.2 OF 002
¶1. (SBU) Summary. In a wide-ranging and friendly meeting on
14 September, Minister of Communications and leading PMDB
party figure Helio Costa told the Ambassador that President
Lula da Silva will likely win a first-round victory in
October's election, and Lula's PT party, the PMDB and other
small parties will form a working majority in congress that
will facilitate governance. The PMDB expects to gain control
of four or five ministries and a similar number of
congressional committees in a second Lula government. In
foreign affairs, Costa expressed disdain for Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez, saying "You cannot trust that man,"
and "He betrayed Lula," -- clear references to Chavez's role
in influencing recent nationalization of Petrobras assets in
Bolivia by the Morales government. On communication issues
in his portfolio, Costa said Brazil seeks technological
investments and partnerships, and this approach played a role
in the victory in Brazil of the Japanese digital TV standard
over the American standard. But he added categorically that
the U.S. digital radio system will be the one selected for
Brazil. End summary.
INTERNAL POLITICS
-----------------
¶2. (SBU) Costa said he believed it is very possible that Lula
could win the presidential election in one round of voting on
1 October, but even if a second round is required, Lula would
ultimately be victorious. (Note: In the Brazilian electoral
system, a candidate must obtain 51 percent of the valid votes
(total votes minus nulls and voids) to be declared a clear
winner. If this does not occur, a second voting round
between the two finalists is required. The second round in
this election would occur on 29 October. End note.) Costa
predicted his PMDB party would elect at least 90 congressmen,
that the PT would "do much better than some are predicting,"
and that the PMDB, PT and some allied small parties should be
able to construct a working majority of about 200 federal
congressmen. In such a coalition, the PMDB would expect to
have control of four or five ministries, and selection of
PMDB congressmen to head key committees, including
infrastructure, planning, development, communications, and
possibly education and foreign affairs.
¶3. (SBU) Ambassador asked about predictions by some political
commentators that a second Lula mandate could be
characterized by legislative gridlock, with the PSDB-led
opposition in no mood to meet the government half-way. Costa
discounted this scenario, arguing that he believes a
consensus can be established across political and party lines
on those issues that most Brazilians agree are important,
including key institutional reforms in the political system,
tax structure, judiciary and social security.
FOREIGN POLICY
--------------
¶4. (SBU) Turning to international issues, Costa recalled his
many years living in the United States, in New York and
Washington, as a journalist for the Globo television network
and a translator for the Voice of America, and said he would
like to see the U.S. and Brazil continue to strengthen their
relationship. Ambassador noted his awareness that foreign
affairs seldom are a major factor in Brazilian elections, but
asked whether Costa's PMDB party had specific priorities or
influence in foreign policy in a second Lula mandate. Costa
replied that the PMDB, if it gains the chairmanship of the
Senate's foreign affairs and defense committee in a second
term, would certainly have a voice in foreign policy matters.
Costa, in speaking about whether Foreign Minister Amorim
BRASILIA 00001968 002.2 OF 002
would remain in his post in a second Lula term, said he
expected either Amorim or another career diplomat would be
minister. In response to a query by Ambassador, Costa said
he did not expect deputy minister Samuel Pinheiro Guimaraes
to be promoted to minister, as he is "too controversial."
(Comment: Pinheiro Guimaraes is widely seen as ideologically
anti-American and anti-free trade, and has instituted
management changes in the foreign ministry that have been
extensively criticized. End comment.)
¶5. (SBU) Costa said it is the view of many Brazilians that
Brazil should be "the natural leader of Latin America, or at
least of South America," owing to its size, population and
economy. Furthermore, the emergence of Lula as a leader "who
has moved clearly toward the center" and is a reliable,
pragmatic and democratic partner for the United States and
others places it in sharp contrast to some countries in the
region, Costa added. Asked about Bolivia, Costa said Lula is
prudent to attempt negotiated settlements with the Morales
government on the status of Petrobras' assets in Bolivia,
despite Morales' "aggressive" provocations. On Venezuela,
Costa was much more combative: "You cannot trust that man,"
he said of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Alluding to
Chavez's role in supporting Morales' decisions on Petrobras,
Costa said flatly that "Chavez betrayed Lula."
TRADE AND PARTNERSHIPS
----------------------
¶6. (SBU) Turning to his portfolio as communications minister,
Costa explained his ongoing efforts to bring wireless
internet access to more and more areas in Brazil, using many
American companies in the process. He said the GOB decision
to select the Japanese standard for digital television had
been driven in part by the perception that the Japanese would
bring investment and technology transfers directly into
Brazilian industry, while the American standard's
representatives had seemed less open to such cooperation, and
less enthusiastic and organized overall in their approach to
Brazil. However, Costa was emphatic in saying that the U.S.
IBOD digital radio system will be chosen for Brazil, as it
offers clear advantages over the Korean, European and other
competitors.
¶7. (SBU) Comment. Costa clearly expects to retain his
ministerial portfolio in a second Lula government, and
ultimately run for governor in four years. He is a leading
figure and interlocutor in the pro-Lula wing of the huge and
fractious PMDB party. We believe his assessments of
congressional dominance by a PT-PMDB coalition are overly
optimistic, given the rifts in the PMDB and uncertainty about
PT election results. We expect turbulence and continued
corruption allegations in congress in a second Lula term, but
even some opposition leaders agree with Costa's forecast that
they will try to work with Lula on reforms and other key
issues of national interest on which there is broad
consensus. Costa was generous with his time, and
demonstrates an evident interest in maintaining an open
channel of communication with the Ambassador. In fact, he
suggested numerous meetings and dinners with leaders in the
Senate and leaders within his own party. We will leverage
that disposition in gaining access to other PMBD leaders and
in promoting and defending U.S. equities in communications
and related areas.
Chicola