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Viewing cable 09FRANKFURT25, Super Election Year in Germany Begins with Probable CDU-FDP

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09FRANKFURT25 2009-01-06 14:55 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Frankfurt
VZCZCXRO0554
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #0025 0061455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061455Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9129
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000025 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Super Election Year in Germany Begins with Probable CDU-FDP 
Win in Hesse 
 
REF:  07 Frankfurt 3300 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
1.  Summary: The state of Hesse kicks off Germany's "Super Election 
Year" with its own state elections on January 18, in what will 
likely be a win for the CDU and FDP and a painful loss for the SPD. 
The CDU and FDP are also courting each other as partners at the 
national level.  After an inconclusive election in January 2007 left 
the CDU in power in Hesse in a caretaker role, the SPD has bungled 
two attempts to form a government with the Greens supported by the 
Left Party, leaving it deeply unpopular and necessitating a new 
election.  CDU Minister President Roland Koch now appears likely to 
ride the SPD's errors and his image as competent on economic issues 
to victory in a year with several state elections, a European 
Parliament election and, finally, a federal election in September. 
The national SPD will want to put this election behind it as quickly 
as possible, and focus on the national campaign ahead.  End Summary. 
 
 
CDU: IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  With the January 18 Hesse election less than two weeks away, 
current polls in the state give the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 
41% of the vote and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) 13%, leaving the 
two likely coalition partners with a solid majority.  This would end 
the caretaker government led by the CDU since the January 2007 
election, during which time the Social Democratic Party (SPD) failed 
twice to form a SPD-Green minority government with the support of 
the Left Party (see reftel).  The SPD has been punished in the 
polls, trailing badly at 25% (down 11% from the 2007 election 
result), while the Greens poll at 13% and the Left Party at 5%. 
Koch has said that he will only govern with the FDP, formalizing the 
polarization of the five parties into two blocs. 
 
3.  In what may be a preview for this year's state elections in 
Saarland, Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony, as well as the federal 
election, Koch has run a professional, low-key, carefully controlled 
campaign, telling the voters they can rely on strong CDU leadership 
in a period of economic recession.  This campaign strategy is a 
marked departure from 2007, when Koch ran on a divisive and 
ultimately unpopular platform of cracking down on violent crime 
committed by immigrant juveniles.  Koch, who has been Minister 
President since 1999, recently announced a 1.7 billion euro 
infrastructure spending project to stimulate the state economy, and 
has been a leading voice of the national party on economic issues in 
his role as deputy chairperson.  Both the CDU and FDP have 
campaigned on the viability of Germany's social market economy in 
tough times and taken credit for its relative success.  FDP lead 
candidate Joerg-Uwe Hahn has gone as far as to bash U.S.-style 
market capitalism, calling financially-troubled General Motors (the 
parent company of Hesse-based Opel) a "rotten locust." 
 
SPD: MANY WAYS TO LOSE 
---------------------- 
 
4.  The SPD has mounted an uninspiring campaign and appears 
incapable of resurrecting itself after an internal fiasco in which 
four party members refused to vote for the minority government that 
would have unseated Koch.  Although the deeply unpopular former lead 
candidate Andrea Ypsilanti has stepped aside for the relatively 
young and unknown Thorstsen Schaefer-Guembel, she has stayed on as 
Hesse's party chairperson, signalling that the party has not changed 
significantly.  National party chairman Franz Muentefering has now 
said publicly that state-level parties must still consider 
cooperation with the Left Party, and Schaefer-Guembel says that "all 
options are on the table."  The Left Party remains above the 5% 
threshold in the polls, leaving the SPD with no way to govern 
without its support, should election results match or exceed current 
polls. 
 
5.  Comment: If the CDU and FDP succeed in forming a coalition 
government in Hesse, they will receive a strong and early boost 
going into the other upcoming elections.  The less likely prospect 
of a SPD, Green, and Left Party majority would force the SPD to 
agonize publicly once again over the controversial idea of working 
with the Left Party.  A weak showing for the SPD in Hesse might, 
however, have a silver lining for the national party, by allowing it 
to put behind the bitterly divisive debate in Hesse over cooperation 
with the Left well before the federal election in September.  End 
Comment. 
 
6.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL