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Viewing cable 05PRETORIA4743, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 2 2005
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05PRETORIA4743 | 2005-12-02 11:50 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria |
VZCZCXRO3374
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR
DE RUEHSA #4743/01 3361150
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021150Z DEC 05
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0314
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUCPCIM/CIMS NTDB WASHDC
RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 004743
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN
USTR FOR COLEMAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 2 2005
ISSUE
¶1. Summary. Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an
economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
opinion of the U.S. Government. Topics of this week's
newsletter are:
- 3rd Quarter Growth Slows, Economy Still Strong;
- Manufacturing Activity Slows in November;
- Monthly Current Account Deficit Widens;
- Inflation Less than Expected;
- Possible Weakening of Rand in 2006;
- October Credit Demand Slows;
- Business Confidence High but Stable;
- SA Government Will Publish Official Poverty Measure;
- Mutual Funds to Offer Accounts to Low-Income Market;
and
- Recent Research Shows Poverty has Fallen Past Two
Years;
End Summary.
3RD QUARTER GROWTH SLOWS, ECONOMY STILL STRONG
---------------------------------------------
¶2. South Africa's economic growth slowed sharply in the
third quarter of 2005, but this was mainly due to upward
revisions to previous data. With November's release of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Statistics SA (Stats SA)
included revisions of the past three years, which showed
the economy was larger than previously thought. Gross
domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.2% on a seasonally
adjusted and annualized basis in the third quarter, down
from 5.4% in the second quarter. A Reuters poll of
economists had forecast that GDP would slow to 4.4%.
Manufacturing, retail trade, finance, transport and
construction were the main sources of third quarter growth
fueled by strong domestic spending. The mining sector,
contributing 6.4% of GDP, declined by 0.7% its first
contraction since the fourth quarter 2004. Stats SA's
revisions to GDP showed that the economy expanded by 4.5%
in 2004 and 3.0% in 2003, substantially higher than
earlier official estimates of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively.
Stats SA revised GDP upwards using new surveys and data.
Nominal 2004 GDP increased 0.9% to R1,387 billion ($215
billion, using 2004's average exchange rate at 6.45 rands
per dollar). Source: Investec, GDP Update; Reuters,
November 29.
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY SLOWS IN NOVEMBER
----------------------------------------
¶3. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slowed
considerably in November, reaching 50 and indicating that
continued growth in the manufacturing sector would not
happen. November was the fourth consecutive month the PMI
has fallen and the lowest level reached in the past two
years. In October, the PMI was 54.1. All the components
of the PMI index fell in November, but the sharpest drop
was in the employment index, which dropped 8.4 points to
45.0. Business activity and new sales orders declined
substantially as well. The PMI index has been above 50
since the end of October 2003, when it was 47.7 and near
the end of a period of contraction in the manufacturing
sector. The PMI price index continued to increase in
November, rising to 68.6 from 66.7 in October. Forty-five
percent of survey respondents anticipated improved
conditions near-term, while 16% expected worsening
conditions. Source: Business Day, December 1, 2005.
MONTHLY CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT WIDENS
--------------------------------------
¶4. According to monthly South African Revenue Service
statistics, the trade deficit widened to R5.5 billion.
Exports fell 11% to R3.3 billion ($510 million), mainly
due to a decline in exports for vehicles, aircraft and
vessels, and mineral products. This is the third
consecutive month in which the trade deficit has widened
unexpectedly, and over the past 12 months South Africa has
posted a deficit nine times. Although the monthly figures
are volatile, a widening current account deficit is
expected for 2005. A 4.2% deficit as a percent of GDP is
expected by the end of 2005, compared to 2004's 3.2% of
GDP. Exports were weaker even though the rand depreciated
during October. The rand averaged R6.58 against the
PRETORIA 00004743 002 OF 004
dollar in October, and R6.36 in September. Imports
declined as well, falling 4.5% in October. The main
reason for the decline in imports was the fall in the oil
price from $70 a barrel to about $50, resulting in a
decline in the value of mineral product imports of more
than R2 billion ($310) during the month. Source:
Business Day, December 1.
INFLATION LESS THAN EXPECTED
----------------------------
¶5. October's producer and consumer inflation continued to
increase less than expectations, showing little second
round impacts of higher oil prices. Consumer prices
excluding mortgage costs (CPIX) increased 4.4% compared to
market expectations of 4.6%, and producer prices rose by
4.2% with market expectations at 4.5%. Consumer and
producer prices showed a small monthly increase of 0.1%,
with October's consumer prices rising due to higher
transport costs, and producer prices increasing as a
result of higher agricultural and petroleum prices with a
moderation in electricity prices. In October, consumer
prices (CPI) rose by 4.0% compared to September's 4.4%,
while producer prices rose in October and September by
4.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Most analysts expect that
interest rates will remain unchanged, given that oil
prices have moderated and inflationary pressures seem to
be concentrated in the transport and petroleum-using
sectors. Source: Standard Bank, CPI Alert, November 23;
Investec, PPI Update, November 24.
POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF RAND IN 2006
----------------------------------
¶6. Even with strong capital inflows, a continuing current
account deficit above 3% will continue to weaken the rand
in 2006, according to Azar Jammine, the Chief Economist at
the financial consultant firm Econometrix. Jammine
believes the rand could reach R8 per dollar by the end of
2006 due to South Africa's increasing current account
deficit. The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and
the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) took different views
about the future direction of the rand. EIU expects the
rand to depreciate in 2006 like Jammine, under pressure
from falling prices for metals such as gold and platinum.
DTI has forecasted a much stronger rand due to faster
economic growth and the country's macroeconomic and fiscal
policies. South Africa's current account deficit posted
3.4% of GDP in the second quarter of 2005 compared with
3.8% in the first quarter, despite a relatively strong
rand. However, the shortfall in the current account has
largely been offset by healthy inflows in the capital
account. So far in 2005, the rand has lost about 13% of
its value against the dollar. Source: Business Report,
November 28.
OCTOBER CREDIT DEMAND SLOWS
---------------------------
¶7. Demand for credit by the private sector was below
expectations at 19.5% (y/y) in October, compared to
September's rise of 22.3%. October's broadly defined M3
measure of money supply grew by 16.4%, in line with
forecasts, after increasing by 16.9% in September. The
Reuters consensus poll forecast showed that private sector
credit demand, which is driving a consumer spending boom,
was likely to rise by 21.3% y/y. Annual growth in M3,
pointing to inflation pressures building in the economy,
was expected to show an annual growth rate of 16.4% during
October. Source: Reuters, November 29.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE HIGH BUT STABLE
-----------------------------------
¶8. For most of 2005, business confidence has remained
close to the 24-year high of 88, which was attained in the
fourth quarter 2004. The business confidence index, which
is compiled by the University of Stellenbosch and
sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank, fell slightly to 85 in
the fourth quarter 2005, compared to 82 and 86 during the
second and third quarter 2005, respectively. The fourth
quarter 2005 survey was the fifth consecutive quarter with
results above 80, which means that 8 out of 10 businesses
surveyed feel positive about the economic environment.
PRETORIA 00004743 003 OF 004
Before 2003, survey results above 80 would last only
several quarters before dropping. As the survey has
remained above 80 for the past 15 months, respondents
perceive better economic fundamental changes may last.
The index showed a dip in three out of the five surveyed
sectors: new vehicle sales, building contractors and
retailers. The wholesaler index rose by 6 points while
manufacturing confidence remained steady, possibly
reflecting that producers had adjusted to the rand's
strength. Source: Reuters, November 28.
¶9. Comment. Most analysts expect that the South African
Reserve Bank (SARB) will not change interest rates at the
December meeting. October inflation still shows second-
round oil price inflationary pressures absent and private
sector credit demand has leveled to 20%, an increase high
enough that would not support future reductions in
interest rates. SARB Governor Mboweni and Finance
Minister Manuel continue to warn about building inflation,
making sure that inflationary expectations do not
increase. End comment.
SA GOVERNMENT WILL PUBLISH OFFICIAL POVERTY MEASURE
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶10. The South African government will publish an official
poverty benchmark, according to Lesetja Kganyago, the
Director General of National Treasury. The poverty
measure would use not only income, but also access to
basic services such as water, sanitation, health and
education facilities. According to the World Bank's
poverty indicator, households that survive on less than $2
(about R13) a day are considered to be living in poverty.
However, Kganyago said that although the World Bank
measure was useful for international comparisons, South
Africa needed to create its own poverty index that
incorporated more than just income. Kganyago felt that it
was too early to comment on the frequency or other details
of the poverty survey, but confirmed that Statistics SA
would publish it. A bid related to the development of the
official poverty measure would be advertised within the
next few weeks. The poverty benchmark is developed at the
same time the government was starting a new national
income dynamic study, which would examine the effect of
government interventions on households. The study will be
done early in 2006 and a pilot project will be carried out
in the second half of 2006. Source: Business Report,
November 28.
MUTUAL FUNDS TO OFFER ACCOUNTS TO LOW-INCOME MARKET
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶11. The South African mutual funds (unit trust) industry
is planning on offering savings accounts aimed at the
lower income market, similar to the banking sector's
Mzansi accounts. According to Di Turpin, the Chief
Executive of the Association of Collective Investments, a
proposal submitted to the government for the industry as a
whole creates and markets a single mutual fund as an
additional way to save. Provisionally called Fundisa,
meaning "learning" in Nguni languages, the fund would
attract lower fees than normal mutual funds and invest
only in fixed interest-bearing assets to reduce capital
loss risks. This recent announcement brings the mutual
fund industry in line with the Financial Sector Charter,
requiring signatories to provide low income market with
access to affordable products. The life insurance
industry has indicated that it will provide lower-income
products early in 2006. The South African mutual fund
industry, manages assets worth more than R450 billion ($69
billion, using 6.5 rands per dollar). Source: Business
Day, November 29.
RECENT RESEARCH SHOWS POVERTY HAS FALLEN IN PAST FOUR
YEARS
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶12. Poverty has decreased since 2000 because of the
expansion of government grants and accelerated job
creation, according to Servaas van der Berg and Megan
Louw, researchers at the University of Stellenbosch. The
research paper mapped poverty trends in South Africa from
1993 to 2004. Using household income data from the annual
or semi-annual All Media and Product Surveys (AMPS)
PRETORIA 00004743 004 OF 004
collected by the South Africa Advertising Research
Foundation with national account household income data and
setting the poverty line at an annual R3,000 ($460, using
6.5 rands per dollar, or $1.26 per day) per capita, the
authors found that poverty has declined more rapidly since
¶2000. The proportion of the population living below the
poverty line rose slightly from 40.6% to 41.3% between
1993 and 2000, as a result of poor economic growth and
labor market prospects, but then declined to 33.2% by
¶2004. This brings the total number of poor people down to
15.4 million in 2004 from 16.2 million in 1993. The
average per capita income of an individual belonging to
the poorest 20 percent of the population has risen from
R855 ($130) to R1,185 ($182) between 1993 and 2004 (all
monetary values are given in 2000 rand terms). Van der
Berg and Louw attributed the large reduction in poverty
levels since 2000 to expansion in social welfare grants
and faster economic growth, but argued that sustainable
poverty reduction cannot depend on grants alone, needing a
large-scale expansion in jobs. The research also showed
that the black middle class has been growing very rapidly.
The number of black people who are members of households
earning more than R40,000 ($6,150) per person a year has
increased threefold in the past decade. Source: Business
Report, November 29.
TEITELBAUM