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Viewing cable 07ANKARA1977, WELCOME CONGRESSMAN SHAYS: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ANKARA1977 2007-08-01 17:06 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO8368
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHAK #1977/01 2131706
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011706Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3236
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH// PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001977 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PTER ECON ENRG OREP AM IZ TU
SUBJECT: WELCOME CONGRESSMAN SHAYS:  SCENESETTER FOR CODEL 
BAIRD (SHAYS/PALARINO), AUGUST 7-9, 2007 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Your visit to Turkey comes as the 
recently elected parliament prepares to approve a new 
government and elect the country's next president.  Terrorism 
and Iraq remain key issues, and the return of pro-Kurdish 
representatives to parliament after 14 years may offer a 
chance for improved dialogue on both.  Turkey continues to be 
an essential partner in Iraq, supporting coalition forces by 
allowing the use of its territory as a logistical hub.  It 
has over 1,000 troops in Afghanistan and has twice led 
international forces there.  The single biggest obstacle to 
bilateral relations is PKK terrorism.  Turkey is frustrated 
with U.S. and Iraqi failure to act against PKK terrorists in 
northern Iraq and has threatened to strike PKK targets across 
the border if the U.S. or Iraq does not act.  House passage 
of an Armenian genocide resolution would likely jeopardize 
U.S. national security interests in Turkey and Iraq, 
complicate the security environment for U.S. citizens and USG 
personnel, and work against those in Turkey calling for open 
discussion on the tragedies of 1915.  End summary. 
 
PKK TERRORISM AND IRAQ 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Turkey has consistently demonstrated strong 
security cooperation in the global war on terror as a key 
U.S. ally and the only democracy and NATO member bordering 
Iraq, Iran, and Syria.  Turkey broadly agrees with U.S. goals 
in Iraq and tangibly supports our military efforts there. 
However, Turkish concerns about Iraq's stability and future, 
as well as PKK terrorist attacks launched from northern Iraq, 
complicate our relationship. 
 
3.  (SBU) Since 1984, the PKK terrorist campaign has resulted 
in approximately 37,000 deaths.  After ending its 
self-imposed five-year cease-fire in 2004, the PKK has 
conducted attacks against Turkey from strongholds in northern 
Iraq, killing over 600 Turkish civilians and military and 
foreigners in 2006 alone, and nearly 100 in 2007 to date. 
The increased violence prompted the government and military 
to threaten possible cross-border operations targeting the 
PKK in Iraq.  The USG has strongly discouraged this, citing 
Iraqi sovereignty and the risk of increased instability.  The 
U.S. has been Turkey's closest ally in the fight against the 
PKK, securing EU agreement to place the PKK on its list of 
terrorist organizations; spear-heading Europe-wide efforts to 
close PKK financial, logistical, and media support outlets 
there; and leading a trilateral (US/TU/IZ) process to stop 
the threat emanating from northern Iraq.  We are also 
encouraging dialogue between the GOT and Iraqi and Kurdish 
Regional Government authorities. 
 
4.  (SBU) Turkey worries about increasing instability in 
Iraq, growing Iranian influence in the region, and the 
potential for Iraq to splinter along sectarian or ethnic 
lines.  The GOT is also concerned about Iraqi Kurdish 
ambitions to expand their territory to include oil-rich 
Kirkuk.  The prospect of a referendum this year on Kirkuk's 
future status exacerbates Turkish fears that Kurdish 
annexation of the province will lead to massive 
inter-communal violence, and, ultimately, the dissolution of 
Iraq.  Turkish political leaders have sought to reinforce 
Iraq's unity and territorial integrity; Turkey has been among 
the most active in the Iraq Neighbors Process. 
 
5.  (SBU) Turkey's agreement to use of its territory as a 
logistical hub has been a combat multiplier for our Iraq 
operations.  Approximately 3 million gallons per day of 
gasoline and diesel fuel for the Iraqi people and 25 percent 
of sustainment fuel for coalition forces crosses into Iraq 
through the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border 
Gate.  Since May 2005 when Turkey approved the use of 
Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub to support coalition 
operations in Iraq, over 152 million pounds of equipment have 
been shipped to U.S. troops.  Over fifty percent of all air 
cargo into Iraq has transited the Incirlik cargo hub. 
 
TURKISH CONTRIBUTIONS TO AFGHANISTAN 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (SBU) Turkey has been a solid contributor to the NATO 
Allies' effort in Afghanistan.  It has over 1,000 troops on 
the ground, and has twice led the International Security 
 
ANKARA 00001977  002 OF 003 
 
 
Assistance Force for Afghanistan (ISAF).  It recently took 
over command of the ISAF Kabul region in April, and donated 
24 155mm howitzers to the Afghan National Army, along with a 
training package.  In addition to military support, Turkey 
operates a PRT in Wardak Province and has committed 100 
million dollars in long-term development support to 
Afghanistan, which has been used primarily for the 
construction of hospitals and schools.  Turkey is also 
engaged in a strong diplomatic effort to promote dialogue 
between Afghan President Karzai and Pakistani President 
Musharraf.  On April 29, 2007, in Ankara, the leaders signed 
their first joint declaration, committing the two sides to 
foster improved cooperation on intelligence sharing, 
counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and economic 
development.  The leaders commissioned a joint working group 
to monitor implementation of the Ankara Declaration. 
 
TURKISH INVESTMENT AND TRADE IN NORTHERN IRAQ 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Turkey's exports to Iraq are substantial -- about 
$2.5 billion dollars in 2006 and $1.3 billion through June 
2007, according to the Turkish Foreign Trade Undersecretariat 
(FTU).  While greater competition has reduced Turkey's share 
in Iraq's market, Turkish businesses are still active in oil 
exploration, service businesses, and construction.  Some 
325-380 Turkish businesses reportedly control 95 percent of 
the $2.8 billion reconstruction market in northern Iraq, 
including subsidiaries of OYAK, the Armed Forces Pension 
Fund, and Nursoy, a company founded by a former Nationalist 
Action Party (MHP) provincial chairman.  Turkish businesses 
have won projects such as the $300 million Irbil airport, the 
$260 million Suleimaniye University, and the $65 million 
Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) headquarters.  These projects 
depend primarily on Turkish imports of construction and other 
material.  In the oil business, Turkey's Genel Enerji is 
exploring around Kirkuk. 
 
8.  (SBU) Several factors have contributed to declines in 
daily truck traffic through the Habur Gate from 2,500-3,000 
pre-invasion to 500-750 today.  Better enforcement has 
reduced fuel smuggling into Turkey.  Iraq,s State Oil 
Marketing Organization no longer takes commercial fuel 
deliveries from Turkey, which accounted for up to 100 trucks 
per day.  Moreover, the KDP reportedly demands fees of 
$300-400 from Turkish drivers.  The risk of a cross border 
operation (CBO) reportedly led numerous companies to leave 
northern Iraq.  Official trade numbers from the FTU also show 
a slackening in growth of Turkish exports to Iraq, running 
against the trend of Turkey's steady export growth.  In a 
July 19 meeting, however, the Chairman of the Turkey-Iraq 
Business Council said that the GOT continues to push 
commercial engagement on the ground, adding that he was 
confident the business community would get advance warning of 
a major CBO. 
 
ELECTION RESULTS 
---------------- 
 
9.  (U) Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) 
scored a significant victory in July 22 parliamentary 
elections, returning to power with 46.6% of the vote, up from 
34% in the 2002 election.  Two other parties crossed the ten 
percent election threshold required to enter parliament, 
along with 26 independent candidates, creating a fractious if 
more representative legislature.  AKP appears set to form 
another single-party government, with 341 of parliament's 550 
seats, but returns with a reduced majority and short of the 
367 seats needed to elect the next president or amend 
Turkey's military-drafted constitution.  The opposition 
Republican People's Party (CHP), with 20% of the vote, lost 
seats in several of its strongholds. Commentators view the 
results as the opposition's failure as much as AKP's success. 
 The new parliament will convene August 4, with election of a 
Speaker, formation of a new government and election of 
Turkey's next president topping the agenda. 
 
10.  (U) AKP now has a mandate to pursue its economic 
development and modernization policies, EU membership and 
political reform for another term.  Erdogan was magnanimous 
in an acceptance speech that stressed unity, democracy, 
stability.  His first real test will be choosing a 
 
ANKARA 00001977  003 OF 003 
 
 
presidential candidate who can bridge the divide between a 
shattered left and jubilant AKP supporters. 
 
HOUSE RESOLUTION ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE 
------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage a candid 
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic 
Armenians during World War I.  The Turkish and Armenian 
governments have discussed establishing joint commissions of 
academics and historians to establish the facts, in parallel 
with efforts to establish official bilateral relations.  The 
January 2007 murder of Turkish Armenian journalist Hrant Dink 
has contributed to growing calls for changes to Penal Code 
Article 301, which criminalizes insulting "Turkishness," and 
stifles Turks, ability to discuss fully the events of 1915. 
A U.S. Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a 
"genocide" would trigger an intensely negative and 
nationalist response, and would work against those in Turkey 
calling for a comprehensive review of the events and for 
normalizing bilateral relations with Armenia. 
 
12.  (SBU) A resolution would also have negative consequences 
for U.S. national security interests in Iraq and elsewhere. 
Supply routes into Iraq that are crucial to supporting U.S. 
troops, military overflights and use of Turkish bases that 
support U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan 
could be jeopardized.  Additionally, major defense 
procurement contracts with U.S. manufacturers (with expected 
and potential sales exceeding $10 billion) could be scrapped. 
 Agricultural purchases might also be canceled and consumer 
boycotts could ensue.  Anti-Americanism -- already high -- 
would likely intensify, increasing the threat level for U.S. 
citizens and USG personnel living and working in Turkey. 
 
MISSION TURKEY 
-------------- 
 
13.  (SBU) Mission Turkey consists of four posts:  Embassy 
Ankara, Consulate General Istanbul, Consulate Adana, and a 
two-person Consular Agency in Izmir.  Country-wide, there are 
currently about 300 American positions and almost 700 locally 
employed staff (LES) working for over 20 agencies throughout 
the Mission.  The Mission's FY 2007 operating budget was $30 
million.  Mission Turkey is scheduled for a New Embassy 
Compound (NEC), with construction set to begin in 2010. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
MCELDOWNEY