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Viewing cable 09ISTANBUL37, COMMENTATOR TALKS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRATIC
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ISTANBUL37 | 2009-01-21 14:15 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Istanbul |
P 211415Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8714
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS ISTANBUL 000037
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: COMMENTATOR TALKS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRATIC
REFORM IN TURKEY
REF: A. ANKARA 64
¶B. ANKARA 2118
¶C. ANKARA 833
¶1. Summary. In a recent discussion with diplomats and media
representatives, professor of political science and
well-regarded newspaper columnist Sahin Alpay predicted that
Turkey will achieve democratic consolidation with or without
EU support, and offered a broad apologia for the lackluster
performance the past three years by Turkey's ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP).
------------
Introduction
------------
¶2. (U) On January 10, the Journalists and Writers Foundation
(of which controversial Turkish imam Fethullah Gulen is
honorary president) sponsored a discussion titled "Why is AKP
Disillusioning the Liberals," one of a series of talks being
sponsored by the Foundation. The speaker was Dr. Sahin
Alpay, professor of political science at Bahcesehir
University and well-regarded newspaper columnist for
Gulen-affiliated newspapers Zaman and Today's Zaman. While
the newspapers generally are supportive of AKP, Alpay said he
was not affiliated with any party and described himself as
sometimes a critic and sometimes a supporter of AKP. He said
that he spent his senior year of high school in the United
States, was a committed communist as a young man, and in the
1990s worked briefly as an advisor to Deniz Baykal, leader of
the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). He is
one of the signatories to the petition (strongly criticized
by AKP Prime Minister Erdogan) apologizing for the events of
1915 (Ref B). Alpay considers himself to be a "social
democrat in the Swedish model."
--------------------------------------------- --
Turkish Democracy: Unfulfilled Promise and Hope
--------------------------------------------- --
¶3. Alpay described Turkey as having among the world's oldest
democratic traditions, rooted in the Tanzimat reforms of the
late 1700s. He outlined three important "dynamics" in the
recent evolution of liberal democracy within Turkey. First
was the "Ozal Revolution" of the 1980s (named after then-PM
Turgut Ozal), in which the Turkish economy was opened to
global competition. Second was the customs union with the
EU, which in the 1990s created a new elite of religious and
conservative people from the Anatolian heartland, who want
further democratization and EU integration. Third is the
"liberal-critical discourse" conducted by liberal
intellectuals. As a result, a "period of silent revolution"
has began, in which many legislative changes are occurring.
Nevertheless, Alpay feels democracy has not yet been fully
consolidated, and gave as "outrageous" examples the
military's continued meddling in politics and the
Constitutional Court's repeated "unconstitutional" behavior
(e.g., it temporarily delayed the selection of Gul as
president; it overturned the constitutional amendment
permitting headscarves in schools; and it almost shut down
the AKP).
¶4. Alpay said that intellectuals like him came from various
"radical" backgrounds, but through their experiences became
convinced of the value of liberal democracy. At the same
time, he said, "modernist Islamic thinking" (as manifested,
for example, by Gulen and AKP) evolved along those same
lines. He emphasized that the Turkish Islamic movement has
gradually reformed and liberalized itself and is nothing like
those which exist in authoritarian regimes. He called this
"one of the greatest miracles" of the Turkish democratization
movement and characterized AKP as the "most reformist party"
since the Ozal days. In response to a question, Alpay
vigorously denied that either AKP or the Gulen movement had a
"hidden agenda" to bring sharia law to Turkey (a common
accusation of their opponents), and claimed that their
conversion to liberal democratic values was sincere.
¶5. Alpay thinks even the military is beginning to see that
democratic reform is necessary. He believes the military is
genuinely changing, thanks to the "broad debate" that is
going on. He had particular praise for TGS head Ozkok, whom
he claims stopped a military coup. He quoted Ozkok as saying
"What the people want shows us the way." Alpay has no fear of
a military backlash from the Ergenekon prosecution (Ref A),
saying "authoritarian elements" will not be able to make a
comeback and the trial is a very important turning point that
is proceeding with at least the tacit consent of the
military. He conceded that there may have been "mistakes and
improprieties" in the conduct of the investigation, but
considers them to be "minor" compared to the principle being
established.
¶6. Alpay said that the most important reform for Turkey at
this point is a new constitution, that will "reformulate"
Turkish identity in a manner that is acceptable to the Kurds.
He claimed even the military, which drafted the current
constitution after the 1980 coup, recognizes the need for a
new constitution. Regarding the infamous Section 301 of the
Penal Code (which criminalizes various acts of lese majeste),
he noted that although he himself might be prosecuted under
that section (for his participation in the Armenian apology),
he thinks that the recent amendments to the section (Ref C)
provide adequate freedom of speech. He criticized the
Turkish media for being very poor on standards, but said that
there is adequate room for informed discussion.
¶7. According to Alpay, the two major stumbling blocks to
democratization are the "positivist/materialist" secularism
introduced by Ataturk, and the state's intolerance of and
discrimination against any identity or culture other than the
officially-sanctioned Turkish identity and culture. He
criticized the educational system for serving these two
policies, and noted that increasingly parents are instilling
contrary (i.e., liberal) values in their children at home.
------------------------------------
Praise and Criticism for AKP and CHP
------------------------------------
¶8. Alpay called the AKP the first "mass party," with proper
party organization and a "leadership cadre" much broader
than, for instance, the opposition Republican People's Party
(CHP), whose leader Deniz Baykal he called a "dictator." He
admires AKP's foreign policy, specifically mentioning its
policy of Strategic Depth. He says that AKP learns from its
mistakes (implicitly, unlike other parties), and engages in
intense internal discussions about its policies. Alpay
lamented that, in Turkey, a liberal democratic "discourse"
does not engage the populace, who are mobilized only by an
Islamic or nationalist "discourse," and noted that the AKP
does not have a dialog with critical-liberal people. He
thinks that in the upcoming local elections the economy and
efficiency of local government will be the two big factors,
and that while the AKP vote will fall, it will still carry
most municipalities, due to the weakness of the opposition
parties.
¶9. Alpay noted that while CHP is currently sclerotic, its
history indicates it could in the future become an agent of
change: In the 1950s, CHP introduced the concept of citizens
rights and freedoms that could not be restricted by
Parliament. In the 1960s and 1970, CHP introduced the
concept of the social welfare state. In the 1980s and 1990s,
CHP raised the idea of cultural rights. And, in 1992, Baykal
came up with a "magnificently" liberal party platform.
---------------------------
Why EU Reforms Have Stalled
---------------------------
¶10. Alpay said some liberals have since 2005 begun to
criticize AKP because of the slow pace of reform. He said he
does not share that criticism, and listed several reasons why
AKP's efforts to make the reforms necessary for EU accession
have stalled: (a) the enthusiasm of the EU has cooled; (b)
the enthusiasm of the Turkish military (which, he said, at
one time was a strong supporter of accession) has cooled; (c)
CHP support has cooled; (d) PKK violence resumed in 2004; (e)
relations with Washington deteriorated in the wake of the
Iraq war; and (f) last summer AKP was nearly shut down for
supposedly antisecular activities.
¶11. As proof of AKP's continuing commitment to liberal
values, Alpay pointed to the recent beginning of state TV
broadcasts in Kurdish and on the Alevi religion. He further
expects that public secondary schools will start offering
Kurdish elective courses in the near future. He also said
that the recent appointment of AKP Vice Chairman Egemen Bagis
as chief EU negotiator signals a "restart" of the EU process.
¶12. Alpay thinks Turkey is "very close" to consolidating
democracy, and will do so with or without EU help, although
he acknowledged that this will take longer and produce more
internal conflict without EU help. Indeed, he said, it would
make a big difference if France would make clear that it
supports Turkey's accession. Unless EU shows more enthusiasm
for the process than it has recently, Alpay does not think
that Turkey will move further on Cyprus. He finds it
"amazing" that public support for EU accession is as high as
49 percent, given the EU's lack of interest.
¶13. Comment: The Istanbul leftist intellectual commentariat
has for some time been chewing over the question of whether
to continue to support AKP. The larger question is, &Who
cares?8 While leftist thought has some influence among
Istanbul,s universities and think tanks, there is almost no
support among voters for leftist parties, which undoubtedly
explains why (as Alpay notes) the AKP has shown no interest
in cozying up to the left even as it pursues policies that
the left finds attractive. End comment.
Wiener