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Viewing cable 09BERLIN1612, MEDIA REACTION: COP15, IRAN, GERMANY-AFGHANISTAN, OBAMA
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09BERLIN1612 | 2009-12-22 12:24 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Berlin |
VZCZCXRO2758
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
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RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//J5 DIRECTORATE (MC)//
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001612
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P,
SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A
VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA
"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE"
SIPDIS
E.0. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO KGHG IR GM AF US
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: COP15, IRAN, GERMANY-AFGHANISTAN, OBAMA
PRESIDENCY;BERLIN
¶1. Lead Stories Summary
¶2. Climate Change
¶3. Iranian protests
¶4. Afghanistan
¶5. Obama Presidency
¶1. Lead Stories Summary
ZDF-TVQs primetime newscast Heute led with a story on the traffic
chaos throughout Europe due to freezing temperatures. ARD-TVQs
primetime newscast Tagesschau led with a report on the government
coalitionQs debate over budget cuts. Newspapers led with diverse
stories, including the protests in Iran and considerations of how to
reduce the national deficit. Due to the upcoming holidays, Stern
magazine and Die Zeit were already published today. Editorials
focused on the protests in Iran and the government coalitionQs plans
to cut expenditures in 2011.
¶2. Climate Change
Handelsblatt editorialized: QIt is also good for the economy if
Germany is a pioneer in climate protection. Taking the lead,
however, does not mean that one moves forward and then stands there
alone because nobody follows. Any concessions in climate protection
are based on the foundation of a common international effort. Only
Germany is the exception and promised cutting 40 percent of
emissions by 2020 without any preconditions. The German government
is now alone and does not really know what to do after the failure
of Copenhagen. There can be only one answer: revision.
In a lengthy analysis, the weekly newspaper Die Zeit noted: QCan you
achieve a binding climate protection agreement with 193 countries?
Multilateralism has shown its worst side in Copenhagen. The number
of countries that have to cooperate to save the world is small. We
are talking about a handful of major emitters: the U.S., China,
Japan, Russia and the EU. However, the climate sinners will not
promise improvements without being urged to move forward by the
victims of climate change. All the hope now focuses on the next
global climate conference, which will take place in Mexico at the
end of 2010. Mankind will continue to negotiate and hopefully
realize early enough that you cannot negotiate with nature.
Tagesspiegel stated in a front-page editorial: QThe minimum
consensus on Copenhagen is poor, almost a failure. Saving the
world, if something like it can be done by an agreement, was indeed
delayed. However, is this also a failure of scientists? Scientists
have collected indications that the climate is changing but
governments are not convinced yet. Copenhagen was a triumph of
climate skeptics However, Climategate could not shake the reality
that the climate is changing. The hints are powerful. The findings
of scientists can indicate the right course, but it must be set by
politicians. The democratic division of labor worked well in the
past, even if some desire an ecological dictatorship after the
lukewarm results of Copenhagen.
¶3. Iranian protests
In an editorial, Die Welt noted: QMontazeri was the spiritual father
of the reform movement, an inspiration and the religious legitimacy
of the green opposition, whose political face Hussein Mussawi was.
Montazeri embodied the idea of a enlightened Islam. However, with
him the resistance will not necessarily die. The opposite could be
the case, as the mass protests at his funeral showed.
Sueddeutsche opined: QWith the funeral on Monday, the confrontation
will not be over. It could escalate already on Sunday, because the
seventh day after the death is the day to greatly commemorate the
deceived, and in this case it is also the Day of Ashura, when Shia
BERLIN 00001612 002 OF 003
Muslims excessively commemorated the martyrdom of Husayn ibn Ali
Husayn died fighting against the unjust rule of a usurper.
Montazeri himself has defined the power of the Khamenei as a
dictatorship and that of Ahmadinejad as illegitimate. There is a
clear parallel for everybody involved.
Frankfurter Allgemeine editorialized: QNothing can intimidate the
green opposition movement, neither threats nor brutal violence. The
opposition exploits any opportunity to protest against the rule of
President Ahmadinejad, who is probably in power only because of
election fraud and the support of the regimeQs security
authorities. The opposition is having a certain effect because it
continues to articulate its protest within the system of the Islamic
Republic. However, can this change the circumstances?
Handelsblatt commented: QTurning mourning into protests was the
motive with which hundreds of thousands of Iranians went to the
funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in Qom. The powerful
demonstration of the protesters shows: the opposition in Iran is
alive. It lost its mentor with the death of Montazeri, who had
given the reform movement a powerful voice, but it has not lost its
momentum. Clerics and the government should be warned. The
opposition is intrepidly fighting with mainly peaceful means against
repression and dictatorial methods. As long as AhmadinejadQs style
of leadership does not change, riots could break out in Iran any
time.
Frankfurter Rundschau showed a front page photo of Grand Ayatollah
MonazeriaQs coffin with many protesters under the headline QIranQs
opposition is alive.Q In an editorial, the paper wrote: QGrand
Ayatollah Montazeri cannot be replaced. By his constant faithfulness
to the true lesson of Islam and humanity, which he always
acknowledged, unlike many of his religious colleagues, he was more
credible, convincing and popular than many others. His voice gave
more weight to the green movement. However, this personality, who
the reforms already see as a martyr, was a symbol, not a political
leader. The truth is that the green movement has already left
behind Montazeri. Nobody can any longer control it and restrict its
goals within the Islamic system.
¶4. Afghanistan
Frankfurter Allgemeine editorialized that the idea of talking to
Afghan insurgents is right Qbecause insurgents in Afghanistan and
Pakistan are not a homogeneous organization but represent all walks
of life and stand for diverse goals. However, Americans and
Britons have repeatedly tried to pull local warlords to their side
with nice words and a lot of moneyQwithout being overwhelmingly
successful. President Karzai has repeatedly called on Taliban
leaders to put down their arms and to integrate in the political
process. He has negotiated with them through middlemen without much
success. The reasons for this difficulty remain unclear, and it
will certainly not be done by people in Berlin.
Tagesspiegel commented: QWhen two people say the same thing, the
impact can be completely different. Former SPD Chairman Beck was
accused of being a foreign political nobody and defeatist when he
approved of talks with moderate Taliban after he returned from a
visit to Afghanistan in autumn of 2007. One of his loudest critics
at the time was CSU foreign policy expert Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg. Two years later, zu Guttenberg mentions the thought he
condemned at the time. One might repeat the old wisdom that
leftwing politicians are blamed as traitors when they pursue
realpolitik, and conservatives are celebrated when the do the same.
However, the dispute over whether to integrate Taliban into a
peaceful solution is about something more. It is about the
understanding that we no longer can achieve our goals and that we
therefore have to reduce our expectations if the mission is to come
BERLIN 00001612 003 OF 003
to a good end.
Ostsee-Zeitung commented: Q[SPD Chairman] GabrielQs rejection to
send combat troops to Afghanistan can be interpreted as populism.
On the other side is also clear that the Bundeswehr mission in
Afghanistan must be rationally analyzed. How should it go on? The
ChancellorQs reference to the London conference on Afghanistan at
the end of January does not get us any further at all. Merkel is
demonstrating a lack of courage in facing unpleasant facts--and weak
leadership.
¶5. Obama Presidency
Under the headline QMaybe 2010 will be ObamaQs year,Q Frankfurter
Rundschau analyzed: QSo far, Barack Obama is a President of great
hope, great promises and long waiting. Prior to the end of the
year, the success of the White House is within limits. The
President has prevented the worldQs largest economy from collapsing
with an unprecedented economic stimulus program. However,
unemployment in the U.S. is at a record high. It feels like America
is still in a deep recession. The detention camp in Guantanamo
might be closed one day, but not as promised on January 22 No-one
in Washington wants to celebrate the result of the climate summit.
At the end of the year, the deadline Obama set for Iran is expiring
at the end of the year to show readiness to seriously discuss the
nuclear dispute. Tehran seems to be deaf. Nothing is moving in the
Mideast conflict. Disarmament talks with Russia are entering
another round and troops are increasing in Afghanistan. All this
has led to a sobering feeling in the U.S.: a President of nice
words, nothing else. However, the premature verdict ignores that
Obama has got things moving. He has started many things in his
first year that might bear fruits soon.
DELAWIE