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Viewing cable 09SAOPAULO241, A NORMAL ECONOMY - BRAZIL AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09SAOPAULO241 | 2009-04-24 19:10 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo |
VZCZCXRO8767
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0241/01 1141910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241910Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9125
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0277
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4352
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 9125
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3477
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3724
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2898
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2724
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4099
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 3266
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000241
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE PASS USTR FOR KDUCKWORTH
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONSE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
STATE PASS NSC FOR ROSSELLO
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR LINDQUIST
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN BR
SUBJECT: A NORMAL ECONOMY - BRAZIL AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
REF: 08 Sao Paulo 476
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Although Brazil has experienced a large shock as
a result of the global economic downturn, it has weathered this
shock much more effectively than past shocks due to greater economic
flexibility, large foreign reserves, and a decline in inflation
pass-through pressures that has made its economy much less
vulnerable to the risk of exchange rate depreciation. Brazl's
current account defcit has widened modestly in recent quarters but
s not at risk. Brazil's imports are adjusting rapdly to the
external shock and its floating exchange rate should help to
tabilize any future trade imbalances that might emrge. Brazil's
current ccount deficit also remains fully financeable via xpected
FDI inflows.
¶2. (SBU) Brazil's financial account has suffered a much larger and
more sudden shock but is also not at significant risk. The recent
increase in short-term financial outflos poses little risk because
inflationary pass-through pressures are now much lower in Brazil
than in the past. FDI inflows, moreover, are expected to remain
strong. Brazil's large foreign reserves have provided it with a
critical safety net throughout the crisis. More broadly, the
improvement in Brazil's external accounts in recent years has helped
to provide the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) with genuine monetary
independence, and helped make Brazil "a normal economy" for the
first time in its history. Unlike past crises, interest rates can
be used to help Brazil achieve its domestic growth and inflation
objectives rather than managing its external imbalances. End
Summary.
Coping with a Strong External Shock
-----------------------------------
¶3. (U) The global economic downturn has had a considerable impact on
Brazil's balance of payments accounts. Three specific shocks Brazil
has experienced include a large decline in trade flows, a sharp rise
in financial outflows, and a large increase in outward profit
transfers. Brazil's imports and exports in recent months have
declined by 40 percent and created significant hardships for
trade-intensive sectors. A large and sudden reversal in financial
outflows occurred in the final quarter of 2008 after more than two
years of strong inflows. Outward transfers last year jumped to USD
34 billion - 50 percent higher than their level in 2007 and more
than double their level in 2006.
¶4. (U) While the decline in trade flows is due to weak demand
affecting the entire global economy, remittance and financial
outflows have been more specific to Brazil. Remittance outflows
have been driven by struggling U.S. banks and car makers
repatriating profits from their Brazilian units (very profitable
until recently). Short-term financial outflows have been driven by
foreign institutional investors liquidating local investments to
boost their cash positions. While Brazil's open capital account and
the depth of its markets are key long-run strengths of its financial
system, they also make it easy for foreign investors to unwind their
investments in the short-run and thus may have contributed to the
recent rise in Brazil's financial outflows.
¶5. (U) Despite these recent difficulties, Brazil's external accounts
are not at risk. While trade flows are down sharply, Brazil's trade
balance maintains a slight surplus. The pace of remittances is
expected to moderate significantly this year. Short-term financial
outflows have hurt Brazilian equities (where foreign investment is
most concentrated), but had a more modest impact on debt and credit
markets given Brazil's limited reliance on foreign borrowing. FDI
inflows have fallen from their recent peak levels, but generally
remain strong. Most immediately, Brazil's USD 200 billion in
foreign reserves provide it with a strong cushion against any
reasonable external shock scenario. On balance, Brazil's external
vulnerability indicators have shown a low level of risk throughout
the crisis and remain far stronger than they were several years ago.
SAO PAULO 00000241 002 OF 003
Brazil's Current Account: A Mild and Gradual Shock
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶6. (SBU) Brazil's current account deficit has widened over the past
year but remains modest in size (approximately -1.7 percent of GDP
through March) and can be fully financed via FDI inflows (Reftel).
External deficits in Brazil's two previous crises, by comparison,
were much higher (-4.8 percent in 1998-99 and -4.6 percent in
2002-03) and required large-scale IFI financing. The most immediate
source of the current account decline has been the increase in
profit transfers. Brazil's trade balance has also fallen, but
remains in surplus (USD 16 billion forecast in 2009) and is not at
serious risk of deterioration given Brazil's flexible exchange rate
and strong recent declines in import prices. The market consensus
for Brazil's 2009 current account deficit is now -1.0 percent of
GDP.
¶7. (U) In the short-run, Brazil's trade balance has weakened in part
because its growth and import demand, while falling sharply, have
held up better than its key trading partners (U.S., Argentina).
Over the past quarter, exports to the U.S. have fallen by 50
percent. In contrast to past crises, however, Brazil's imports in
this crisis are adjusting almost as rapidly as its exports helping
to limit the risk that a large external deficit may open up.
Brazil's import composition is also holding up well. Whereas fuel
imports (largely reflecting cyclical conditions) have fallen by 40
percent, capital imports (largely reflecting longer-term
expectations) have fallen by less than 10 percent.
Brazil's Financial Account: A Large and Sudden Shock
--------------------------------------------- -------
¶8. (U) Brazil's financial account, in contrast, has suffered a large
and abrupt shock. After USD 54 billion in net financial inflows
received during the first three quarters of 2008 (and USD 89 billion
in 2007), Brazil suffered USD 21 billion in net outflows in the last
quarter of 2008. Outflows were concentrated within Brazil's
portfolio accounts - most immediately, among its equities. In
contrast, FDI inflows remain strong. Even in the final quarter of
2008, Brazil received USD 14 billion in FDI inflows - more than
twice FDI inflows received in the last quarter of 2007. The BCB
expects FDI inflows to be USD 22 billion this year.
¶9. (U) Despite the recent reversal in its financial flows, Brazil's
financial account is not at risk. One reason is the modest size of
its external funding needs (approximately USD 60 billion in 2009)
and large foreign reserve assets. A second reason is that financial
outflows have been externally driven, have not reflected a rise in
"Brazil risk," and thus may rebound quickly once global conditions
ease. January-February data indicate that net financial inflows
have again turned positive. The third and most important reason is
the fact that Brazil can now tolerate a much greater degree of
exchange rate depreciation without generating strong pass-through
pressures. Since mid-2008, the Brazilian currency has depreciated
by 22 percent in real effective terms. Whereas currency
depreciation on this scale would have previously risked an
inflationary spiral, inflation expectations today remain
well-anchored and have fallen by nearly 100 points (to 4.2 percent)
over the past two quarters.
¶10. (U) The decline in exchange rate pass-through has provided the
BCB with much greater room to lower rates and stimulate domestic
demand. In previous crises, rates were tightened sharply (amidst
rapidly slowing growth) to help limit inflation, imports, capital
outflows, and re-establish Brazil's external balance. In this
crisis, in contrast, rates should fall by roughly 300 points.
Brazil's benchmark rate is now lower than at any time in over two
decades.
Foreign Reserves: A Critical Safety Net
----------------------------------------
¶11. (U) Large foreign reserves have been critical in assuring
Brazil's stability throughout the crisis. At the outset of the
crisis, Brazil had USD 205 billion in reserves. In 2007 alone,
SAO PAULO 00000241 003 OF 003
reserves grew by nearly USD 100 billion as financial inflows rose
sharply. At that time, BCB president Meirelles was criticized for
excessive reserve accumulation. By mid-2007, Brazil's reserves were
well above normal reserve adequacy benchmarks (e.g., three to four
months import coverage, 100 percent short-term debt, 10 to 20
percent of broad money). As of end-2008, Brazil's foreign reserves
remained equivalent to 14 months of imports, 400 percent of total
short-term external debt, and 40 percent of broad money.
¶12. (U) Brazil's large reserve stockpile has provided it with a
strong safety net against severe external stress. When global
markets panicked last September, the BCB sold large amounts of
dollars without any risk of running down its reserves. The BCB
could (and did) credibly claim it could meet any amount of local
dollar demand. Brazil's foreign reserves now exceed its total
external debt and its projected external financing needs through at
least mid-2011.
Comment: Brazil as a "Normal Economy"
------------------------------------
¶13. (SBU) Despite a large and sudden shock, Brazil's external
accounts remain in excellent condition. While the current account
deficit has recently grown, its size remains modest. Brazil's trade
patterns are also adjusting well to the price and demand shocks
faced in recent quarters. Short-term financial outflows have risen
sharply, but pose little risk given Brazil's low funding needs and
limited inflation risk that exchange rate depreciation now presents.
Brazil's foreign reserves have provided an invaluable safety net
throughout the crisis - ensuring Brazil's external repayment
capacity and also helping to maintain confidence amidst difficult
market conditions.
¶14. (SBU) The improvement in Brazil's balance of payments accounts
has brought it two benefits: First, stronger external accounts have
reduced Brazil's risk premium, contributed to its investment grade
rating, and enhanced its ability to attract foreign capital. While
Brazil's banks are not dependent on foreign finance, the increase in
foreign capital inflows (in the pre-crisis period) did help to
catalyze other parts of Brazil's markets that should recover when
the crisis subsides, for example, Brazil's IPO market, merger and
acquisition activity, and alternative assets. The second benefit is
increased space for counter-cyclical monetary policy. The BCB can
now adjust rates in response to domestic rather than external
conditions. For the first time in its recent history, Brazil has
effectively achieved monetary independence, which some claim makes
Brazil a "normal economy." End Comment.
¶15. (U) This cable was drafted in conjunction with the U.S.
Treasury Financial Attache in Sao Paulo and coordinated/cleared by
Embassy Brasilia.
WHITE