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Viewing cable 07HAMBURG68, MUCH AT STAKE FOR SPD IN NORTHERN GERMANY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07HAMBURG68 2007-11-14 15:17 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Hamburg
VZCZCXRO6019
PP RUEHAG
DE RUEHAG #0068/01 3181517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 141517Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0191
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0176
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAG/AMCONSUL HAMBURG 0211
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: MUCH AT STAKE FOR SPD IN NORTHERN GERMANY 
 
REF: A. A) HAMBURG 065 
     B. B) BERLIN 1977 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) 
celebrated its return to traditional party values and 
strengthened its forces during its national convention October 
26-28 in Hamburg.  Privately, however, SPD members have noted to 
Poloffs that the real test for party chairman Kurt Beck as well 
as the for party's standing will be the 2008 local elections in 
Hamburg, Lower Saxony and Hessen (Ref B).  The SPD faces a 
difficult challenge in Hamburg and Lower Saxony.  Its success in 
Hamburg may depend on The Left party's performance, since votes 
won by The Left probably will come mostly at the expense of the 
SPD (Ref A).  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) For the first time in thirty years the SPD held its 
national party convention in Hamburg, auspicious in that both 
Hamburg and neighboring state Lower Saxony will be holding key 
state elections on February 24 and January 27, 2008 
respectively.  Further, both states are traditional SPD 
strongholds but currently under Christian Democratic (CDU) 
leadership.  The SPD continues to trail the CDU in polls in both 
states.  SPD mayoral candidate for Hamburg Michael Naumann 
opened the convention with an appeal for Hamburg to return to 
the SPD fold.  He and Lower Saxony SPD candidate for 
Minister-President Wolfgang Juettner sat front-center of the 
presidium throughout the convention well in view of TV cameras. 
Beck as well as other prominent speakers continuously expressed 
their support for the SPD candidates.  These three upcoming 
state elections are critical for the SPD in that they will serve 
collectively as a weather vane, gauging the political winds two 
years before national parliamentary elections. 
 
CDU: THE LEFT PARTY WILL DETERMINE COALITION OPTIONS IN HAMBURG 
 
3. (SBU) SPD convention speakers aimed to paint a critical 
picture of Hamburg's economy in order to support the need for a 
change in government.  In his convention speech, Naumann 
described long lines in front of Hamburg soup kitchens, 
long-term unemployment, and high debt.  He called for social 
reform, a minimum wage, and, of course, a change in local 
government.  Yet, this message may not resonate with Hamburg 
residents; sitting CDU mayor Ole von Beust enjoys high approval 
ratings and in the September Infratest-Dimap polls for Hamburg, 
62 percent of the population thought the city is moving in the 
right direction.  According to October data, unemployment is 
down 15 percent compared to last year and the city is one of the 
leading states in Germany for job creation.  Finance Senator 
Michael Freytag (CDU) and von Beust announced on October 31 the 
city's plans to pay off its first one million Euros in old debt 
and maintain a balanced budget. 
 
3. (SBU) SPD politicos, however, are optimistic.  In 
conversations following the national convention, local and 
national SPD politicians have asserted that the party is 
significantly stronger coming out of the convention.  At a 
dinner on November 5, Hamburg state parliamentarian Aydan Vzoguz 
commented that SPD members are energized and morale is up.  She 
believes that this will motivate volunteers and voters.  In a 
November 1 meeting at the consulate, Hamburg Bundestag 
representative, member of the SPD national board of directors, 
and parliamentary whip Olaf Scholz expressed confidence that the 
convention strengthened the SPD and predicted that his party 
will be able to build a ruling coalition in Hamburg.  He said 
that the party will only need 36 percent of the vote in order to 
form a coalition with the Greens.  In the September 
Infratest-Dimap polls for Hamburg, the SPD was at 32 percent - 
10 percent behind the CDU. 
 
4. (SBU) The CDU maintains that its lead over the SPD will hold. 
 In a meeting with the CG and Pol/Econ Officer on November 9, 
CDU caucus leader in the Hamburg parliament Bernd Reinert was 
confident that his party would continue to govern the city. 
According to Reinert the CDU has regularly polled over 40 
percent and may be able to pull enough votes to form a 
government on its own.  He stated that much will depend on 
whether The Left party will be able to overcome the five percent 
parliamentary threshold required to enter the parliament.  If 
they do, then the SPD will most likely be too weak to form a 
coalition with the Greens.  (Note: The Greens have been polling 
between 13 and 14 percent, The Left party at seven percent, and 
the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) at four percent.  End 
Note.)  In such a case, Reinert said the CDU would turn to the 
Greens as coalition partners.  Reinert surmised that if The Left 
are not strong enough to enter the Hessen or Lower Saxon 
parliaments then they will lose momentum in Hamburg and not 
receive over five percent.  He stated that the CDU will focus on 
traditional FDP voters since they believe the FDP does not have 
a chance to overcome the threshold.  At the Hamburg Greens 25th 
anniversary celebration on September 2, the Greens made it very 
clear that they would prefer to ally themselves with the SPD, 
but are open to a CDU coalition. 
 
HAMBURG 00000068  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
LOWER SAXONY: A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR THE SPD 
 
5. (SBU) SPD Parliamentary Whip Scholz admitted that the SPD 
will have a very difficult run in Lower Saxony.  Current M-P 
Christian Wulff (CDU) is extremely popular -- 72 percent 
popularity ratings.  SPD candidate Juettner appears to have 
benefited from the party's national convention.  His popularity 
ratings jumped 16 percent in November to 31 percent. 
Nevertheless, the SPD in Lower Saxony is only pulling 33 percent 
in the November polls while the CDU continues to receive 44 
percent approval ratings.  Currently the Greens are at eight 
percent and FDP at seven percent.  The CDU is expected to 
continue its coalition with the FDP in January.  While the 
October 23 poll showed for the first time The Left party 
overcoming the five percent hurdle, in November the leftist 
party dropped a point to four percent. 
 
6. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
JOHNSON