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Viewing cable 09SAOPAULO216, BRAZIL'S ECONOMY: SLIDING BELOW ZERO PERCENT GROWTH
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09SAOPAULO216 | 2009-04-09 13:35 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo |
VZCZCXRO3797
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0216/01 0991335
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091335Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9101
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0248
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4344
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 9106
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3470
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3717
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2891
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2717
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4094
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 3261
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000216
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE PASS USTR FOR KDUCKWORTH
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONSE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
STATE PASS NSC FOR ROSSELLO
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR LINDQUIST
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S ECONOMY: SLIDING BELOW ZERO PERCENT GROWTH
REF: A. Brasilia 257; B. Brasilia 141
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Brazil's growth has collapsed more sharply than
might be expected given the country's limited dependence on exports
and limited leverage in the banking, corporate, and household
sectors. The more important transmission channel of weak global
conditions is probably its negative effect on consumer and business
confidence and domestic demand. In this environment, domestic
macroeconomic stimulus may have only limited impact. Fiscal
expansion will require time to take effect and is unlikely to have
much impact in 2009. Monetary policy is also facing headwinds -
most immediately, a decline in the money multiplier effect and
reduced willingness to spend by the private sector. Senior
officials at the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) told the Treasury
Attache that they feel monetary policy is now "pushing on a string"
and that further rate cuts are unlikely to have a meaningful effect
on Brazil's growth this year. Brazil is thus unlikely to regain
growth until global conditions improve. However, the global
recession is also unlikely to do lasting harm to Brazil's fiscal and
external accounts. With a global pickup in 2010, Brazil could grow
by 3.5 percent next year. End Summary.
Growth Bad and Getting Worse
----------------------------
¶2. (SBU) After growing by 5.7 percent in 2007 and 5.1 percent in
2008, the current consensus among financial institutions in Brazil
is that the country's economy should contract by at least 0.2
percent this year. (Note and Comment: While official GDP growth
forecasts by the Ministry of Treasury have been sliding, the
Ministry has maintained a more positive outlook of 2% GDP growth.
Post has yet to encounter any financial institution, economist, or
academic who supports this assessment. End Note and Comment.) Itau
economist Mauricio Oreng was less hopeful and told Econoff that Itau
expects total GDP growth to fall by 1.5 percent this year. Morgan
Stanley was even more pessimistic and is forecasting a contraction
of 4.5 percent. Over the past quarter, several key indicators have
collapsed and dropped to levels not seen in nearly two decades.
Sectors most strongly affected by the current downturn include
agriculture, construction, and, until recently, autos. Zero percent
growth implies that Brazil will produce roughly USD 60 billion less
than at full production capacity.
¶3. (SBU) The GOB has responded aggressively to the downturn (Ref
A). The BCB cut its base rate by 250 points and is likely to cut
another 300 points in coming months. The BCB made a similar move
reducing bank reserve requirements by R$ 100 billion (3.5 percent of
bank assets). New lending facilities have helped to inject
liquidity, boost trade finance, and facilitate private sector
external debt servicing. Public banks have increased lending to
farmers, builders, and in support of capital projects. The BCB has
also allowed the real, trade-weighted value of the exchange rate to
fall by 23 percent since last September.
¶4. (SBU) The GOB resisted fiscal stimulus until recently. Although
its public debt ratios are now far lower than they were several
years ago (net debt is approximately 37 percent of GDP), Brazil has
been cautious about large-scale fiscal expansion given its history
of large deficits and concerns that new spending might harm its risk
premium. In March, however, Brazil announced a USD 15 billion
spending program (approximately 1.1 percent of GDP) to build one
million low income housing units over the next three years. While
these new expenditures will provide stimulus more directly than rate
cuts, expected lags in implementing the program will limit stimulus
effects in 2009 (to approximately 0.4 percent of GDP). Brazil's
total fiscal stimulus to date is 1.3 percent of GDP (including a
temporary car tax reduction that took effect in January, Ref B).
¶5. (SBU) Despite fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, however,
private sector spending has continued to decline. As a result,
aggregate demand has continued to fall and Brazil's GDP forecasts
have been repeatedly revised down in recent months.
SAO PAULO 00000216 002 OF 003
Well-Protected but Still Affected
---------------------------------
¶6. (SBU) Given the severe downturn in global economic conditions,
it is not surprising that Brazil is suffering spillover effects;
however, the speed and extent of the impact has been surprising.
Economic interlocutors had touted Brazil's sound fundamentals and
the relatively closed economy to protect Brazil from the global
recession. The relatively large size of Brazil's government (public
spending represents 41 percent of GDP) should have provided strong
automatic stabilizers. Likewise, declining inflation pressures
created ample room for the BCB to continue aggressively reducing
interest rates. Brazil's balance of payments is in good shape,
including contined strong FDI inflows and USD 200 billion in
forign reserves. The private sector is only leveraged by 41
percent of GDP, and private banks have strong solvency ratios and
liquidity positions (16 percent average capital adequacy). Finally,
Brazil is well positioned due to its relatively closed economy,
(exports total only about 13 percent of GDP), and limited dependence
among Brazilian institutional borrowers on external market finance
(seven percent of total financing comes from external sources).
Exports and Credit
------------------
¶7. (SBU) Despite all the insulation against the crisis, the finance
sector's consensus estimate for Brazil's growth this year is for a
contraction of 0.19 percent. Estimated GDP growth figures for 2009
have continued to be revised downward over the last three months.
While both falling exports and tightened credit conditions are often
blamed, neither factor explains the decline in economic growth.
Exports have taken a hit given the lack of global consumption, down
by 14.9 percent in March compared to last year; however, imports are
also declining, and the net effect that trade flows will have on GDP
this year should be roughly neutral. More importantly, however,
Brazil's economy is not export-intensive. While exports are
critical for specific sectors (e.g., autos, metals, agriculture),
exports have fairly limited direct impact on total output. Brazil's
export-to-GDP ratio (13 percent) is well below countries such as
Korea (45 percent), China (40 percent), and India (22 percent).
¶8. (SBU) While Brazil's credit channels have tightened, Brazil has
suffered only relatively modest deleveraging effects compared to
many other countries. Over the past quarter, credit growth has
slowed but has not stopped. Credit to the private sector is
expected to grow by roughly 12 percent in 2009 - far slower than the
30 percent annual growth rate observed in 2007-2008, but not slow
enough to justify negative GDP growth. Except for a brief period in
the final quarter of 2008, high-quality borrowers report that credit
flows continue (though at shorter tenors and with more collateral).
Brazil's rates spiked last November, but rates have fallen on
average by nearly 10 percent since then. According to the BCB, the
overall delinquency rate rose 0.4 percentage points over the last 12
months, but remains at only 4.8 percent of total lending. (See
forthcoming Septel for more on credit conditions in Brazil.)
Confidence to Blame
-------------------
¶9. (SBU) The most likely explanation for Brazil's current recession
is the recent steep decline in confidence and its negative impact on
consumption and investment spending. Since last April, consumer
confidence has fallen by nearly 15 percent. Because household
consumption represents the largest share of output (62 percent), GDP
is sensitive to even small shifts in consumption patterns.
Consumption has also been Brazil's most important engine of growth
over the past five years. While investment represents a far smaller
share of output (18 percent), it will decline by about 11 percent
this year. Consumption and investment are both expected to
contribute negatively to GDP growth in 2009. The most important
transmission effect the global recession has had on Brazil's economy
has therefore probably been its negative effect on domestic
confidence and spending.
¶10. (SBU) Low consumer confidence is also closely related to a
SAO PAULO 00000216 003 OF 003
weakening labor market. Over the past four months, Brazil's
unemployment rate (8.5 percent) has risen by a percentage point and
may reach 10 percent by the end of 2009. Average monthly earnings
in January were 15 percent below their level one year ago. Consumer
defaults (8.4 percent) have risen by 17 percent over the past 12
months. While most Brazilians deposit their savings in banks rather
than invest in equities, the decline in Brazil's stock exchange (32
percent in the past year) has also probably hurt confidence.
¶11. (SBU) Weak confidence is both bad news and good news. In the
near-term, weak confidence is a problem because it cannot be
reversed with a macroeconomic policy response. President Lula and
Central Bank President Meirelles have both unsuccessfully sought to
encourage greater private sector spending by stressing Brazil's
strong fundamentals and the benefits that interest rate cuts should
bring. Absent greater willingness to spend by Brazil's private
sector, however, this stimulus is likely to have only a limited
impact. Brazil's central bankers have told the Treasury Attache
that they feel they are now "pushing on a string" and that further
rate cuts are unlikely to strengthen growth this year.
It's Only Temporary
-------------------
¶12. (SBU) The good news is that the confidence crisis Brazil is
suffering is likely to represent a temporary rather than a permanent
shock. Unlike many other countries, Brazil does not need to
comprehensively restructure its balance sheets, borrow extensively
from international financial institutions to avoid default, or worry
about large increases in its public sector debt as a result of the
global recession. Brazil's challenge is a cyclical slump rather
than a need for major structural reforms or a deterioration in its
core economic fundamentals.
Comment
-------
¶13. (SBU) Like other emerging markets, Brazil is highly unlikely to
regain growth until global conditions improve. As Brazil's largest
trading partner and foreign investor (16 percent of exports), the
U.S. outlook is most important. China is also critical due to the
commodity-intensive nature of its imports and the fact that it is
Brazil's fastest growing trade partner. Strong fundamentals should
help Brazil re-establish growth more quickly than many other
countries. The global recession is also unlikely to do lasting harm
to Brazil's fiscal and external accounts. The current financial
community consensus is that Brazil will quickly exist the world
recession and grow by 3.5 percent in 2010, a rate considered to be
close to Brazil's potential rate of growth. End Comment.
¶14. (U) This cable was coordinated/cleared by Embassy Brasilia and
written in conjunction with the Treasury Financial Attache in Sao
Paulo.
WHITE