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Viewing cable 06MOSCOW11310, MANAGED DEMOCRACY IN ACTION: ASTRAKHAN REGIONAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MOSCOW11310 2006-10-06 16:31 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Moscow
VZCZCXRO2647
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #1310/01 2791631
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061631Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3619
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 3436
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 1695
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 1940
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 011310 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM RS
SUBJECT: MANAGED DEMOCRACY IN ACTION: ASTRAKHAN REGIONAL 
ELECTION 
 
 
MOSCOW 00011310  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In advance of October 8 regional elections, 
we visited Astrakhan Oblast and found: 
 
-- The Kremlin-backed United Russia party in the lead and 
expecting to gain a majority in the regional Duma; 
 
-- A popular United Russia governor who touts his ability to 
use his contacts in the Kremlin to deliver for the region: 
 
-- Billboards and paid TV ads from all parties, but United 
Russia dominance in TV news and newspaper coverage; 
 
-- The Republican Party, in alliance with other liberal 
parties, hoping to reach the seven percent threshold, while 
overcoming a challenge to its registration; 
 
-- Positive inter-ethic relations despite a mixed population 
including over 25 percent Muslims; 
 
-- Complaints about inadequate revenue sharing from Moscow. 
End Summary. 
 
 
October 8 Regional Elections 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Astrakhan holds elections on October 8 for all 58 
seats in the regional Duma.  United Russia had a majority in 
the outgoing Duma, which had only 29 seats.  Ten parties have 
registered for the election.  These are: United Russia, 
Communists, LDPR, Rodina, Party of Pensioners, Republican 
Party, Peoples' Will, Democratic Party, People's Party and 
Patriots of Russia.  During a September 19-21 visit, we met 
with regional Duma members, opposition party candidates, Vice 
Mayors, business people, students, and officials to get a 
sense of attitudes prior to the election. 
 
United Russia in Driver's Seat 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) Aleksandr Zhilkin, the incumbent governor of the 
Astrakhan region (oblast) was elected in 2004 -- one of the 
last elected before Putin initiated the change to a system of 
appointed governors.  His term extends to 2008 so he will 
remain in office whatever the result of the October 8 
election.  Most with whom we spoke, even those from the 
opposition, were positive about Zhilkin, who heads United 
Russia for the region.  Although he is not running for office 
himself, Zhilkin has dominated the campaign.  United Russia 
literature touts Zhilkin's ties with the Kremlin and his 
ability to use these ties to deliver for the region.  Zhilkin 
promises to use the 450th anniversary of Russian rule in 
Astrakhan in 2008 as a hook to extract greater resources from 
Moscow. 
 
4.  (SBU) We met at the Duma with Astrakhan region Duma Vice 
Chairman Yakov Vinokurov of United Russia.  Vinokurov 
explained that the appeal of United Russia in Astrakhan, as 
throughout Russia, is -- as its name implies -- its 
commitment keep Russia unified.  To remain intact, Russia 
needs the "power vertical."  Vinokurov noted that the party's 
message stresses the stability that the Putin era has brought 
-- and the economic growth that stems from it.  Vinokurov 
underlined that the fundamental attraction of United Russia 
is rooted in a revulsion to the chaos of the 1990s. 
Vinokurov, like other United Russia supporters with whom we 
spoke, said that the party's goal is to get an absolute 
majority on October 8.  He thought it was doable. 
 
"Information Bandits" 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Communist Party Duma member Igor Negerev 
participated in our meeting with Vinokurov.  Negerev was 
unsparing in his criticism of the "monopoly of power" of 
United Russia in the region.  While he did not criticize 
Zhilkin personally, Negerev complained that United Russia 
dominated the news media and prevented the message of other 
parties from getting out.  Negerev handed us a pile of the 
front pages from the last few weeks of the main regional 
newspaper and pointed out that the lead story every day was 
about Zhilkin - complete with photo.  The same was true of TV 
which, he said, leads every night with favorable stories on 
the governor's activities.  Negerev accused United Russia of 
being "information bandits."  He also alleged that United 
Russia sympathizers had destroyed Communist Party campaign 
billboards and posters.  Negerev passed us pictures of youth 
 
MOSCOW 00011310  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
ripping down posters.   He also passed us court documents in 
which he had formalized his complaints.  In addition, Negerev 
showed us photos of government vehicles with United Russia 
bumper stickers on them -- another issue he had raised with 
the courts. 
 
6.  (SBU) Negerev declared that if information flow were 
fair, the Communist Party might get 25 percent of the vote on 
October 8 and run even with United Russia.  Negerev said that 
in campaigning he stressed that United Russia was the party 
of insider deals and corruption and that it was the Communist 
party that represented the interests of average people and 
small business.  Negerev continued that United Russia 
members' main concern was using their influence to get as 
rich as they can as fast as they can.  Vinokurov took on 
Negerev on several points and the two proceeded to have a 
heated debate in front of us. 
 
Liberals Hope to Make a Showing 
------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) We met with State Duma member Valeriy Zubov of the 
Republican Party, who was in Astrakhan to boost the party's 
profile in advance of the elections.  We also met separately 
with the leader of the regional Yabloko party, Vadim Munen. 
Of the liberal parties, only the Republican party is running 
in Astrakhan - with the endorsement of Yabloko and of the 
Union of Right Forces (SPS). 
 
8.  (SBU) Zubov said United Russia (YR) would certainly win 
the election - the only question was by how much.  He 
expected YR to get about 40 percent.   As for the Republican 
Party, Zubov told us that polls indicated it might cross the 
seven percent threshold and get its block into the regional 
Duma.  Both Zubov and Munen agreed with Communist Deputy 
Negerev that United Russia used its control of the 
governorship and media to monopolize news coverage. 
Nonetheless Zubov said he expected no outright fraud at the 
polls.  Despite United Russia's advantages, Zubov said the 
Republicans wanted to compete.   He noted that if the 
Republican party got seven percent in Astrakhan it would be a 
major boost to the party on the national level and encourage 
the liberal parties to unite.  Of the nine regions having 
elections October 8, the Republican party is competing only 
in Astrakhan. 
 
9.  (SBU) However, the Republican party has concerns about 
its registration.  Zubov followed up with us in Moscow on 
September 27 and said that he believed United Russia/the 
Kremlin was using a party that was not even actively 
campaigning -- the Democratic party -- to challenge the 
Republican Party's registration in Astrakhan.   The grounds 
for the challenge was that the Republican Party on the 
national level is not properly registered so authorities 
should strike its Astrakhan affiliate from the ballot.   We 
followed up with the Astrakhan election commission October 4 
and were told that the Republican Party remained registered. 
 
10.  (SBU) Zubov told us that the Republican Party was trying 
to appeal to voters who reject the "vertical of power."  He 
said Republicans favor more power devolving to the regional 
and local levels.  They also emphasize the need for greater 
transparency in government and for fighting corruption. 
Zubov predicted a weak showing by the Communists and LDPR but 
that they would make the threshold.   He also thought the 
Pensioners Party might make it. 
 
Electoral Commission 
-------------------- 
 
11.  (SBU) We met with Yevgeniy Povrovskiy, chairman of the 
Astrakhan Electoral Commission.  Asked about United Russia's 
dominance on the news, Povrovskiy contended that it was only 
natural that the media would pay close attention to the 
governor's activities.  The governor just happened, in this 
case, to be from United Russia.   Povrovskiy underlined that 
all registered parties were free to run paid advertisements 
following the news.  This was not expensive.  We watched 
these adds several times - a series of ten-second spots that 
featured the range of parties.  Povrovskiy noted that there 
was no state-sponsored system for debates. 
 
12.  (SBU) Povrovskiy added that he was on the lookout for 
election irregularities such as the vandalism described by 
the Communists.  He noted that some groups, whom he did not 
specify, practiced "Black PR."   This involves, among other 
things, spreading false rumors about candidates.   We asked 
 
MOSCOW 00011310  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
about projected turnout.   Povrovskiy said that in previous 
elections, turnout had been around 45 percent.   A turnout of 
50 percent on October 8 would be high, he said. 
 
Registration Service 
-------------------- 
 
13.  (SBU) We were warmly received by the head of the Federal 
Registration Service, Tatiana Belova, and her staff.  Belova 
confirmed that ten parties had registered for the elections. 
She reviewed the process, which involves submitting lists of 
at least 250 paying party members, outlining the party 
platform and sources of financing, and paying a small fee. 
 
14.  (SBU) Belova's office also does registration under the 
new NGO law, so we took the opportunity to inquire how that 
was proceeding.  Belova informed us that she had increased 
staff by six persons to handle the added load from NGO 
registration.  She knew of no foreign NGOs in Astrakhan.  She 
defended the NGO law, stating that its goal was simply to 
make sure that NGOs did what they claimed to be doing.  The 
state needed to make sure, she said, that NGOs were not 
fronts for criminal or terrorist activity.  She claimed that 
there was no outcry against the law in Astrakhan and that 
NGOs did not feel oppressed by it. 
 
Revenue Sharing: Seeking More from Moscow 
----------------------------------------- 
 
15.  (SBU) We met with Astrakhan Deputy Mayors Marat 
Abdulkhalikov and Yevgeniy Aptekar, both affiliated with 
United Russia.  They stressed, as did others from the 
regional government, that inadequate revenue sharing from 
Moscow was a major issue.   They told us that the percentage 
of central government support for the city budget had dropped 
from 52 percent to 29 percent in the last three years. 
Related to this was the "vertical of taxation."  Gazprom and 
Lukoil, by far the biggest companies in the region, were 
sending the bulk of tax revenue from their operation in 
Astrakhan to Moscow.  Four years ago, the local cut had been 
significantly higher. 
 
16.  (SBU) Valeriy Bocharinkov, an advisor to Governor 
Khilkin told us that the governor had made increasing 
Astrakhan's take from Moscow his top priority.  He travels 
frequently to Moscow to make his case, meeting with such 
figures as Putin and United Russia leader Gryzlov. 
Bocharinkov stressed that the Governor would use Astrakhan's 
450th anniversary in 2008 as a hook to get more funds.  The 
celebration will bring high-level attention to Astrakhan and 
hopefully generate investment in a range of infrastructure 
projects. 
 
Inter-ethnic Relations 
---------------------- 
 
17.  (SBU) Astrakhan is, by most estimates, 25-30 percent 
Muslim, mostly Kazakh or from the Caucasus.  Our 
interlocutors universally said that relations between ethnic 
groups were good.  They attributed this to the fact that the 
groups had a long history together -- recent immigration is 
less of an issue.  Our contacts told us that nationalist 
parties, like Rodina, are not making ethnic appeals an issue 
in their Astrakhan campaign.  Following our trip, we learned 
of an act of vandalism against a synagogue in late September. 
 We contacted State Duma member Zybov, who  downplayed it as 
non-representative. 
 
Outreach 
-------- 
 
18.  (SBU) We gave a talk on US-Russian relations to about 
sixty students at the University.  The students were 
overwhelmingly apathetic about the election.  The prevailing 
view was that United Russia would win no matter what, so the 
elections did not matter.  One student said that if she voted 
she would vote for "none of the above"; others nodded in 
agreement.  We also met with fifteen business people at the 
local business association.   The business leaders were also 
cynical about the election and did not expect much to change. 
 They were generally supportive of United Russia.  Most 
dismissed the liberal parties as having weak leadership. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
MOSCOW 00011310  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
19.  (SBU) The election in Astrakhan is a case of managed 
democracy in action.  United Russia has clear advantages -- 
media and patronage -- and is using them relentlessly. 
Nonetheless, other parties are competing and a campaign of 
sorts is underway.  While the Republican Party feared being 
de-registered, this appears not to have happened, maintaining 
that choice for the voters.  United Russia's claim that it 
delivers and represents stability clearly resonates.  How 
much United Russia wins by will be the lead story.  There are 
also other issues in play -- such as how strong the 
Communists, Rodina and LDPR show themselves to be.  If the 
Republicans pass the threshold, it may inspire other liberal 
parties to unite for the 2007-8 national elections. 
BURNS