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Viewing cable 05ANKARA1559, CENTRAL BANK AND GLOBAL SELL-OFF STOP RALLY IN
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05ANKARA1559 | 2005-03-17 16:06 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
171606Z Mar 05
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001559
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - CPLANTIER AND ASHAH
NSC FOR BRYZA AND MCKIBBEN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN TU
SUBJECT: CENTRAL BANK AND GLOBAL SELL-OFF STOP RALLY IN
TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS
REF: A. ANKARA 1318
¶B. ANKARA 1202
This message has been coordinated with Congen Istanbul.
¶1. (SBU) Summary: A global sell-off in emerging markets,
coming on the heels of a Central Bank rate cut and
intervention, have caused a correction in the sustained rally
in Turkish financial markets. The lira, which had hit its
highest level in three years earlier this month, finally
reversed course and has fallen back approximately 5% against
the dollar in the last week. On March 9, the Central Bank
not only cut interest rates by one percent but also
intervened in the foreign exchange market, buying $2.3
billion of foreign exchange--its largest intervention since
the 2001 financial crisis. These two actions, combined with
favorable inflation indicators, suggest the Central
Bank--like other observers--is beginning to be more worried
about the outsized inflows of portfolio investment
artificially inflating the value of the lira, than it is
about inflation. This week's emerging market sell-off hit
Turkey's currency and eurobonds slightly harder than other
emerging markets. End Summary.
------------------------------------
Emerging Market Sell-off Hits Turkey:
------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) A broad sell-off in emerging markets this
week--triggered by increased yields on U.S. Treasuries and
expectations of continuing increases--has reversed the long,
strong rally in Turkish financial markets. Emrah Eksi of the
Central Bank Markets Department estimated this week's
outflows at about $700 million. The lira in particular,
which hit a three-year high on March 3, and is widely
considered to be seriously overvalued, finally reversed
direction. Before the Central Bank intervention March 9, the
lira was trading below 1.26 to the dollar. At the close of
business March 17, by contrast, the lira was at 1.3238 to
the dollar and 1.7722 to the Euro. Though the Central Bank
action merely stopped the lira's appreciation, generating
only a slight pullback in the lira later that day and on
March 10, the change in global markets beginning Monday,
March 14 caused the substantial depreciation of the lira this
week, with the biggest declines on Monday and Wednesday.
¶3. (SBU) Though the sell-off has had a significant impact on
equities--notably with a 4.58% fall in the IMKB 100 March
16--the impact on the government securities market has been
far less dramatic. The interest rate on the benchmark bond
closed March 17 at 16.54% only 73 basis points higher than
the close on the day of the Bank's rate cut, which helped
bring down all interest rates on all types of interest rates
by reducing bank funding costs. In addition to the help from
the rate cut, the impact on domestic bond prices caused by
the reversal of sentiment on emerging market debt seems to
have been mitigated by the relatively tight supply of new
lira-denominated issuances. In the Eurobond market, by
contrast, Turkish bonds fell more than other emerging market
Eurobonds. Emrah Eksi explained that the continued TL
issuances by foreign banks, now up to a cumulative $4.3
billion, which he said the banks are largely hedging by
buying TL bonds, may explain the mild impact of the sell-off
on TL interest rates. In other words, these banks' issuances
are creating demand for TL bonds, braking the fall of these
bonds' prices in a correction.
¶4. (SBU) The emerging market sell-off has hit Turkey harder
than other markets. Last week's Central Bank rate cut and
intervention (see below) signalled that the Central Bank
would try to brake the rapid rise of the lira. More
recently, at the same time as global sentiment shifted, the
news flow has been market-unfriendly: there have been
continuing stories about problems in relations with both the
EU and the US, both viewed as key external anchors by
financial markets. Finally, on the IMF program, not only has
there been no progress, but there are signs of new problems
and delays on some of the IMF conditions that had been
considered relatively easy to do: the tax administration
reform law and the banking law. The tax administration
reform law was sent back to a parliamentary sub-committee for
further work (and further delay). The provisions of the
banking law relating to the deposit insurance fund (the SDIF)
having flexibility to temporarily keep a bank running after
intervening, rather than always having to liquidate the bank,
remains the principal dispute between the bank regulatory
agency (BRSA) and the Treasury. According to the press
reports, this, too, will now have to be decided by Prime
Minister Erdogan.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Central Bank Rate Cut at the High End of Expectations:
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶5. (SBU) The broader emerging market sell-off this week comes
on the heels of decisive Central Bank actions last week. At
the market opening March 9, following the monthly meeting of
the Monetary Policy Committee the evening before, the Central
Bank announced a one percent cut in both its lending and
borrowing rates. Analysts had been predicting a cut of
between 50 and 100 basis points with the market consensus
around 80 basis points. In making their predictions, some
analysts had thought the Central Bank would keep the cut
small in order to maintain pressure on the GOT to make more
rapid progress in concluding a Letter of Intent with the IMF.
¶6. (SBU) As previously reported, Central Bank Governor
Serdengecti was quite concerned about the lack of movement on
concluding a Letter of Intent with the IMF, and predicted the
Monetary Policy Committee might publicly refer to this
problem. He also had told us he could be cutting interest
rates more quickly if there were an IMF program in place. In
the event, the Monetary Policy Committee's statement
accompanying the March 9 rate cut never referred to the IMF
by name. It did, however, refer to the need to structural
reforms and fiscal discipline (i.e. the IMF program) in an
apparent attempt to keep the pressure on the GOT.
-------------------------------
Followed by Big FX Intervention:
-------------------------------
¶7. (SBU) Markets had been expecting a Central Bank
intervention in the foreign exchange market, given the
continued appreciation of the lira, driven by strong inflows
of portfolio investment since the beginning of the year. The
Central Bank has a track record of intervening to support the
lira, but always at a level lower than the previous
intervention, and always insisting it is only intervening
because of "excessive volatility" and is committed to the
floating exchange rate regime. What has become increasingly
clear to analysts is that what the Central Bank means is that
it will not allow the lira to appreciate too quickly,
particularly when the appreciation is driven by short-term
portfolio flows.
¶8. (SBU) Shortly after the rate cut announcement, later in
the morning on March 9, the Central Bank began intervening,
buying foreign exchange. In the end, the Central Bank bought
a whopping $2.3 billion in foreign exchange on March 9, in
addition to the $45 million it has been buying every day
since mid-December through foreign exchange purchase
auctions. By contrast, the Bank's last intervention, in late
January, was for $1.3 billion.
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
Central Bank Actions Suggest a Shift in the Balance of Risks:
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
¶9. (SBU) The higher-than-expected rate cut--despite the
absence of progress with the IMF--combined with the huge
intervention suggests a shift in the Central Bank's judgment
of the balance of risks. By continuing to aggressively cut
rates--January and December rate cuts were also higher than
expected--the Bank seems to be indicating it is less and less
concerned about inflationary pressures. Two recent data
releases would appear to justify this lessened concern about
meeting the 8% inflation target for 2005. February
inflation, coming in below analysts' expectations at 0.02%
for CPI and 0.11 for PPI, were powerful indicators that the
Bank's disinflation policies are working. When the February
numbers were announced, there were even articles discussing
the possibility of a looming deflation--unheard of in Turkey.
¶10. (SBU) Instead of worrrying overmuch about inflation, the
Bank seems to have shifted to worrying more about foreign
portfolio investment inflows artificially inflating the lira
and exacerbating imbalances in the balance of payments. With
the 2004 current account deficit at the high end of
expectations, and no sign yet that it will abate in 2005, the
Bank has reason to worry. As noted in ref A, in January
alone, the portfolio investment inflows were $4 billion,
equivalent to 43% of the full-year 2004 inflows.
11 (SBU) The correction is healthy: it reduced, albeit
slightly, the overvaluation of the lira, and may have
dampened portfolio investors' irrational exuberance. That it
did so without causing interest rates to spike is
particularly fortuitous. If the portfolio inflows
resume--with some analysts saying the correction allows
investors to re-enter the market--the shift in the balance of
risks away from inflation to the current account and exchange
rate is likely to continue.
EDELMAN