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Viewing cable 09TOKYO579, PRE-COORDINATION WITH JAPAN ON POSSIBLE DPRK TD2
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09TOKYO579 | 2009-03-16 22:34 | 2011-06-15 02:00 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Tokyo |
O 162234Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1523
INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL FUKUOKA IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL NAHA IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL SAPPORO IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
CJCS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
USSTRATCOM OFFUTT AFB NE IMMEDIATE
HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
USFJ IMMEDIATE
COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA IMMEDIATE
COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA IMMEDIATE
COMUSKOREA SEOUL KOR IMMEDIATE
CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
USDAO TOKYO JA IMMEDIATE
S E C R E T TOKYO 000579
NOFORN
OSD/APSA FOR SEDNEU/HELVEY/BASALLA/GEIS
PACOM FOR J00/J01/J3/J5/FPA
JOINT STAFF FOR J3/J5
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J02/J2/J3/J5
CIA PASS ODNI
E.O. 12958: DECL: AFTER KOREAN REUNIFICATION
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR KN KS JA
SUBJECT: PRE-COORDINATION WITH JAPAN ON POSSIBLE DPRK TD2
LAUNCH
REF: A. TOKYO 00445
¶B. TOKYO 00446
Classified By: James P. Zumwalt, Charge d'Affaires, a.i.; reasons 1.4 (
b/d)
¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: The CDA and the U.S. Forces Japan Deputy
Commander met on March 12 with Directors-General from the
Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense as well as
General/Flag Officers from the Japan Joint Staff Office and
agreed on the need for bilateral coordination, information
sharing and security, and coordinated public messaging ahead
of an announced missile launch by the DPRK. The MOD
Directors-General explained that Japan would attempt to
intercept any object destined for Japan that would cause
damage, but did not have the legal or physical capability to
intercept anything overflying Japan. MOFA DG Umemoto noted
the ""standing request"" Japan has for the United States to
intercept objects from space that would hit Japan and asked
about U.S. intentions. USFJ noted the current assessment is
that the launch would involve a TD-2 test or space vehicle
launch, not a missile directed against Japan. Patriot
batteries in Japan, not Aegis BMD ships with SM-3
interceptors, would be most capable of dealing with debris.
Both sides agreed to hold weekly bilateral DG-level
interagency policy coordination meetings beginning on March
¶19. End summary.
¶2. (S) The CDA, joined by the U.S. Forces, Japan, (USFJ)
Deputy Commander and members of the Country Team, met on
March 12 with Directors-General (DG) from the Ministries of
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and Defense (MOD), as well as
General/Flag Officers from the Japan Joint Staff Office
(JSO), to discuss the modalities of bilateral coordination,
information sharing, responses to various scenarios and the
necessity for coordinated public messaging in preparation for
a possible Taepodong-2 (TD-2) or other rocket launch by the
DPRK.
Bilateral Coordination Structure
--------------------------------
¶3. (S/NF) After reviewing the formal Bilateral Coordination
Mechanism (BCM) and the entities within that structure, both
sides agreed that the expected upcoming DPRK missile launch
appears to not warrant a formal declaration of a Situation in
the Area Surrounding Japan (SIASJ) or an attack on Japan that
would trigger formal standing up the BCM. Both sides also
agreed, however, on the need for mil-mil coordination,
interaction with other relevant ministries and agencies on
technical issues, and policy coordination.
¶4. (S/NF) The Deputy Commander of USFJ noted that routine
mil-mil coordination continues as U.S. forces and JSDF
monitor and share information on DPRK preparation activities.
If the DPRK stacks a missile on the launch pad, USFJ will
set-up a round-the-clock entity to monitor the situation.
USFJ will invite JSO liaison officers to that entity and
expects to send officers to a similar JSO entity. USFJ and
JSO have already begun cross training liaison officers to
ensure efficient communication and information sharing. USFJ
proposed using the existing peacetime Coordination Liaison
Forum to engage with relevant Japanese ministries and
agencies on technical issues, such as air space access or
frequency allocation, as necessary.
¶5. (S/NF) MOFA North American Affairs DG Kazuyoshi Umemoto
noted the importance of policy and public message
coordination, which will require timely and accurate
operational and intelligence information sharing, both
bilaterally and within the Government of Japan. MOFA Foreign
Policy Deputy Director General Masafumi Ishii proposed having
weekly bilateral DG-level interagency policy coordination
meetings that would include representatives from at least
MOFA, MOD, the Cabinet Secretariat, Cabinet Intelligence and
Research Office (CIRO) and JSO. The CDA and USFJ Commander
would lead the U.S. side, which would include relevant
Embassy and USFJ representatives. The meetings would be
informal and, if discovered by the media, would be described
as routine bilateral discussions on issues of mutual
interest. The two sides agreed to have the first meeting on
March 19.
¶6. (S/NF) While noting that bilateral information sharing had
improved, DG Umemoto expressed frustration that bilateral
coordination deficiencies identified after the 2006 DPRK
missile tests still remained and suggested that the bilateral
Roles, Missions and Capabilities Working Group work to
rectify those deficiencies. Embassy Political
Minister-Counselor noted the progress on information sharing
on missile defense, while pointing out that Japan was still
not able to come to the aid of U.S. ships engaged in the
defense of Japan and suggested that this too needs more
bilateral engagement.
Information Flow and Security
-----------------------------
¶7. (S/NF) USFJ Deputy Commander described the secure data
communication and voice links between USFJ and JSO, as well
as between USFJ and the Embassy, that USFJ would use to
convey information on a launch. A representative from the
Embassy's Director for National Intelligence (DNI)office
described how intelligence and analysis would flow in
intelligence channels among the DNI Representative Office,
the Defense Attache, the Japan Defense Intelligence
Headquarters and CIRO. Both USFJ and the DNI representative
stated the importance of protecting the classified
information by only using secure communication lines. The
U.S. side also pointed out the importance of information from
the military and intelligence agencies flowing quickly and
accurately to policy makers across the government and up to
senior levels. DG Umemoto lamented that MOFA still lacks the
ability to communicate securely outside of its building and
is looking forward to receiving in April the secure
telecommunication equipment it purchased from the United
States. Both sides agreed to exchange issue-focused primary
and secondary points of contact by the next meeting on March
¶19.
Response to a DPRK Launch
-------------------------
¶8. (S/NF) MOFA DG Umemoto noted that, different from 2006 --
when Japan was only able to monitor a DRPK launch -- Japan
now has a ballistic missile defense system. This presents
new challenges and Japan needs to have processes in place to
deal with the launch as well as the questioning that will
occur afterwards. MOD Defense Policy DG Nobushige Takamizawa
explained that if a missile, debris or other object is
heading for Japanese territory, the Japan Self Defense Forces
(JSDF) will attempt to intercept it. MOD does not currently
assess that North Korea will launch medium-range Nodong or
intermediate-range Musudon missiles and is currently only
preparing to deploy maritime assets to monitor the TD-2 and
try to deal with any debris that might hit Japan in the event
of a launch failure. Japan does not have the legal authority
or capability to intercept a successful DPRK space launch.
Some political leaders believe Japan should intercept objects
flying over Japan and do not understand that the BMD system
Japan deploys does not have this capability, according to DG
Takamizawa.
¶9. (S/NF) MOD Defense Operations DG Tokuchi presented the
legal basis for JSDF to act against an object heading towards
Japan. Article 76 (Defense Operations) of the Self Defense
Law calls for the Prime Minister to issue a Defense
Operations Order to the JSDF when Japan is identified to be
under or imminently under attack. Article 82-2(1) calls for
the Minister of Defense to issue a Destruct Order upon
approval of the Prime Minister when a nation is preparing to
or stated it will launch a ballistic missile, but has not
indicated its exact intentions. In this case, Japan would
not consider itself under attack but would still have the
legal basis to deploy the SDF to intercept. MOD does not
assess the current situation to match those scenarios and
hence these parts of the SDF Law would not apply.
¶10. (S/NF) However, Article 82-2(3) allows that when an
object, not specifically identified as a ballistic missile,
might fly over or fall on Japan, the Defense Minister may
issue a Destruct Order in advance, DG Tokuchi continued.
This order, in accordance with the Emergency Response
Procedure approved by the Prime Minister, would provide the
JSDF Air Defense Commander, responsible for BMD in Japan,
with the authority to issue an intercept order.
Implementation of Article 76 and Article 82-2(1) requires the
Cabinet to meet and notify the public, while issuing of a
time-limited destruct order under Article 82-2(3) does not
require notification to the public. MOD DG Takamizawa noted
that the government, however, is not prohibited from
informing the public and may find it necessary to show the
public the deployment of the JSDF's BMD assets. MOFA DG
Umemoto suggested the message should be that SDF assets are
monitoring and ready to intercept, if necessary.
¶11. (S/NF) DG Umemoto asked what the United States plans to
do to monitor the launch and to deal with debris headed
toward Japan, as well as how U.S. forces would be
coordinating such action with the JSDF. USFJ stated that
according to current intelligence, the U.S. is assessing the
launch to be a TD-2 test or space vehicle launch, not a
missile directed against Japan. USFJ noted that SM-3's on
Aegis BMD ships would likely not be capable of engaging
debris or an out of control object heading for Japan and that
it would be up to Patriot systems at the terminal stage to
deal with the falling object. MOD DG Takamizawa acknowledged
this but noted that international and domestic political
sensitivities to deploying Patriot units outside of Japan Air
Self Defense Force bases. DG Umemoto reminded the meeting
participants that United States has a ""standing request"" from
Japan to explain US policy on intercepting objects from space
heading for Japan. (NOTE: This is a reference to a note
verbale Japan provided the United States in 2005 when the
United States started deploying BMD assets to Japan. Embassy
Tokyo's files no longer have a copy of the note. End note.)
Public Messaging and Agenda for Next Meeting
--------------------------------------------
¶12. (S/NF) Both sides agreed on the need to coordinate on
public messaging in particular because there will be heavy
Japanese public scrutiny on what actions Japan takes, or does
not take, and on the extent of coordination with the United
States. Discussion on this, along with an operations and
intelligence update, review of policy issues and continued
examination of scenarios and responses, will be on the agenda
for the inaugural bilateral interagency informal coordination
meeting on March 19, the two sides concluded.
ZUMWALT