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Viewing cable 09NDJAMENA175, CEDANT ARMA TOGAE? WHERE CHAD GOES FROM HERE,
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09NDJAMENA175 | 2009-05-13 09:01 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ndjamena |
VZCZCXRO2990
OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA
RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0175/01 1330901
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 130901Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6921
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0066
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 0005
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI PRIORITY 0040
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000175
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/C AND AF/USSES - SE GRATION
NSC FOR GAVIN AND HUDSON
LONDON FOR POL - LORD
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA AND KANEDA
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF UN SU LY CH IS QA CD
SUBJECT: CEDANT ARMA TOGAE? WHERE CHAD GOES FROM HERE,
MILITARILY AND DIPLOMATICALLY
REF: A. NDJAMENA 165
¶B. NDJAMENA 163
¶C. NDJAMENA 161
¶D. NDJAMENA 147
¶E. NDJAMENA 111
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (SBU) The invasion of eastern Chad by Chadian rebels
from Sudan, their decisive defeat by Chad government forces,
and the GOC,s initial reaction to those events last week
confirmed a changed balance of power between Chad and Chad
rebels and raised questions regarding the GOC's military and
diplomatic options. Militarily, the Chadian armed forces
proved that they could effectively exercise asymmetric
superiority in armament and equipment to defeat dangerous
rebel columns decisively. We doubt that the GOC will
exercise its right of hot ground pursuit of Chad rebels into
Sudan, but believe the GOC might not be able to resist using
air forces to strike Chad rebel "targets of opportunity"
inside Sudan in the future. Diplomatically, Chad feels that
it was left isolated and abandoned by erstwhile friends and
important segments of the international community. The GOC
blames the AU for weak "condemnation" of the rebel
aggression. N'Djamena blames both Libya and China for
diluting language of the UNSC PRST. It holds China
accountable for supplying arms to Sudan. The GOC expressed
gratitude to the United States and France for their explicit
naming of Sudan as the provenance of the rebel attacks.
¶2. (SBU) Deby may break relations with Sudan, and withdraw
from or suspend Chad's participation in efforts to mediate
between Chad and Sudan by the Dakar Contact Group, the
Libyans "trilaterally," and/or the Qataris. GOC thinking
about relations with Sudan may be conditioned by speculation
regarding the Bashir regime,s own stability and Sudan,s
future as a nation-state, in the light of the ICC indictment,
growing JEM strength, and the future of South Sudan. Chad
will have to be especially careful in calibrating its
criticism of Libya, given the importance of that relationship
to Chad's stability and security. The GOC might explore
switching its diplomatic ties back from Beijing to Taipei and
re-astablishing relations with Tel Aviv, athough these would
be diplomatic longshots. Chad increasingly sees its
relationship with MINURCAT as a strategic asset and might be
amenable to an eventual expansion of MINURCAT's mandate.
¶3. (SBU) SE Gration's visit and our quick and specific
condemnation of Chad rebel aggression have gained us credit
with the GOC. If we want to exploit these gains, we
recommend: a return visit by SE Gration (one-day OK) on his
next travel to the region; more rapid implementation of all
aspects of UNSCR 1861, another contributiion to the MINURCAT
Trust Fund, and assigning more military advisers to it;
closer consultations with Paris and Brussels on Chad matters
and regional policy; closer consultation with Libya on Chad;
and increased USG support for Chad elections scheduled for
2010 and 2011. END SUMMARY.
---------------------------------
POTENTIAL FOR MILITARY ESCALATION
---------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) We believe it unlikely that GOC ground forces will
cross into Sudan in hot pursuit of fleeing Chad rebels. GOC
forces know they are no match for the SAF, and calculate that
pursuit of rebels may lead to confrontation with SAF. We
believe that it would be more likely for the GOC to use its
air forces to strike Chad rebel "targets of opportunity"
inside Sudan in the future. The GOC may not be able to
resist the temptation to strike, and may judge that air
strikes leave less of a footprint, are less easily
authenticated and thus less provocative to the international
community than a ground presence in Sudan. One thing appears
certain: Chadian military buildup will continue, to replace
NDJAMENA 00000175 002 OF 003
recent losses and maintain or even increase N,Djamena,s
asymmetrical advantage over the Chadian rebels. Where the
money will come from is an "imponderable," as our French
friends say.
---------------------------------
CHAD-SUDAN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
---------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) The GoC is thinking in terms of both short- and
long-term measures in response to what it considers Sudan,s
aggression in the form of attacks by Chadian rebels.
Khartoum broke relations with Chad in May 2008 in response to
a JEM attack on Omdurman, without the sky falling. On May 9,
Deby publicly threatened to sever relations with Khartoum;
announced the closure of GOS-sponsored cultural and
educational institutions; ordered the expulsion of Sudanese
employees; and directed his PM to form a commission to study
next moves vis--vis Sudan, as well as other diplomatic
responses to the recent Chad rebel incursion.
¶6. (SBU) GOC thinking about Sudan in the longer term may be
conditioned by speculation regarding the Bashir regime,s own
stability and Sudan,s future as a nation-state, both of
which have been undermined by the ICC indictment of Bashir,
the growing strength of the JEM rebellion, and the undecided
future of South Sudan. The Chadians may be checking the CPA
calendar, calculating the days until referenda in Abyei and
the South are due. The GOC may believe that in the Deby vs.
Bashir struggle, time is now on Chad,s side, with the clock
ticking on the ICC and CPA issues.
---------------------
CHAD, DAKAR, AND DOHA
---------------------
¶7. (SBU) Deby has decried AU lack of support publicly and
privately, and considers that both the AU and the Arab League
are anti-Chadian, as a result of manipulation by his enemies.
Deby sees the UNSC as ineffectual on account of Chinese and
Libyan obstructionism. The result may be that Chad suspends
or ends its participation in mediation efforts by the Dakar
Accord's Contact Group (Libya is a co-chair), Libya's
trilateral "mechanism," and the Government of Qatar. Deby
announced last week that he had charged the Prime Minister
with overseeing a GOC commission to recommend diplomatic
steps that Chad should take in light of recent events.
FORMIN Faki told us last week that the GOC would be
consulting with its friends, including the U.S., as it
decides what courses of action to take.
----------
CHAD/LIBYA
----------
¶8. (SBU) In recent years, Libya has been a valuable ally to
Chad, and essential to Chad's stability and security, but
Tripoli's failure to offer active support and its unhelpful
stance at the UNSC have left Chad feeling doubly victimized.
Deby will have to play this hand carefully and likely will
not risk alienating Qadafi by going too far in pointing out
what N'Djamena considers Libya's errors of judgment and lack
of loyalty to the reliable friend that Deby considers himself
to be to "the Guide."
----------------
CHAD UN/MINURCAT
----------------
¶9. (SBU) Chad increasingly sees its relationship with
MINURCAT as more of a strategic asset than a strategic
problem. SRSG Angelo has increasing credibility with the GOC
and with Deby personally. We should keep this in mind as we
decide how to craft our own Chad policy. MINURCAT,s goals
and ours are very close if not identical. Supporting
MINURCAT both diplomatically and concretely achieves USG
aims. We might even see Chad agreeing to an eventual
NDJAMENA 00000175 003 OF 003
expansion of MINURCAT's now-limited mandate, geographically
beyond eastern Chad and also substantively into the political
sphere.
--------------------
WILD CARDS/LONGSHOTS
--------------------
¶10. (SBU) CHAD/CHINA: This could get really interesting.
Chad most recently switched its diplomatic ties from Taiwan
to China in 2006, but it has switched back and forther a
number of times previously. We assess that Chinese economic
assistance to Chad is the price Beijing has agreed to pay for
the switch, rather than economic exploitation of Chad
facilitated by the switch. If so, the GOC may see an
opportunity in its perception of Chinese perfidy in its
relations with Khartoum in general and the UNSC PSRT in
particular. The GOC could switch again, exacting a price
from Taiwan as it exacted a price from Beijing in 2006.
¶11. (SBU) CHAD/ISRAEL: Another interesting possibility.
The idea of Chad and Israel re-establishing formal diplomatic
relations has been floating around for some time. (Chad once
had relations with Tel Aviv, long since lapsed, and cafes in
the vicinity of former Israeli property still bear names
involving "Shalom." The GOC continues to buy arms from
Israeli merchants.) Former FORMIN Allam-Mi told Ambassador
Nigro in April 2008 that he expected that the bilateral
relationship could be re-established "before the summer."
That did not happen, but Deby,s ire against what he has
often called an "Arab conspiracy" to "Islamize and Arabize"
Chad by force might translate into a willingness to play this
card.
------------
OLD RELIABLE
------------
¶12. (SBU) CHAD/FRANCE/EU: France continues as Chad,s most
important and reliable international partner. France is
responsible for the robust nature of the EU,s investment in
Chad, was the motor behind EUFOR,s deployment as a bridge to
MINURCAT, and the prime force behind MINURCAT as well. (The
French "master plan" for Chad involves a gradual diminution
of bilateral implication in Chadian affairs, after plugging
the EU and UN into the equation to replace France and French
resources.)
--------------------------
CHAD AND THE UNITED STATES
--------------------------
¶13. (SBU) We have recently gained credit with President
Deby by quickly issuing a condemnation of Chad rebel
aggression, by naming Sudan as the rebel base, and thanks to
the excellent impression that SE Gration made on Deby, who
responded actively to the SE's request for GOC help with the
JEM (Ref D). If the USG decides to exploit these gains, we
recommend consideration of possible measures we have detailed
(in Ref E) to reinforce Chad diplomatically and politically.
We should consider:
-- A return visit by SE Gration (one-day OK) on his next
travel to the region;
-- More rapid implementation of all aspects of UNSCR 1861,
making a voluntary contribution to the UN's Trust Fund, and
assigning more military advisers to MINURCAT;
-- Closer consultations with Paris and Brussels on Chad
matters and regional policy;
-- Closer consultation with Libya on Chad;
-- Increased USG support for Chad elections scheduled for
2010 and 2011.
NIGRO