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Viewing cable 06ANKARA346, TURKEY CENTRAL BANKER WORRIED ABOUT BACKSLIDING
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06ANKARA346 | 2006-01-30 16:35 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara |
VZCZCXRO6462
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #0346/01 0301635
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301635Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2799
INFO RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0335
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 9699
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000346
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR CHRIS PLANTIER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY CENTRAL BANKER WORRIED ABOUT BACKSLIDING
REF: ANKARA 40
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Turkish Central Bank Governor
Serdengecti believes that while economic risks, such as
from the current account deficit, are receding, the
potential for political backsliding on reforms is the
main threat to Turkey's economic recovery, along with
potential instability in the region. The Governor, whose
term ends March 14, told Ambassador he has no idea if he
will be reappointed and that any governor appointed by
the AK Party Government should have the ability to assert
his independence and stand up to the Party and Government
as needed. Advocating for market-oriented policies
remains a challenge in Turkey, where neither the public
nor the political system has been fully convinced of
their value, even after four years of success. End
Summary.
--------------------------------------------
Turkey has Changed, but Public Not Convinced
--------------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) In a first meeting with Ambassador January 25,
Central Bank Governor Sureyya Serdengecti reflected on
the difficulties of his job and the risks ahead for the
Turkish economy. Serdengecti, a godfather of Turkey's
disinflation and economic recovery whose 5-year term ends
March 14, said his biggest challenge was convincing
ordinary Turks that "Turkey has really changed" and that
the boom-bust and inflationary cycles of the thirty years
that preceded the 2001 crisis were indeed history.
Foreigners, he said, are easier to convince than Turks
that the Turkish economy is a safe place for their
investments.
¶3. (SBU) This public attitude put politicians in a
difficult position. On the one hand, bringing inflation
down from over 70% to 7.7% last year has bolstered the
governing party's popularity. On the other, the still-
dissatisfied public expects greater employment growth.
Job creation means that the politicians needed to
continue to implement politically costly structural
reforms that foster jobs and growth but that may cut into
its political popularity. In Serdengecti's opinion, the
biggest risk, therefore, to Turkey's recovery is the kind
of "reform fatigue" that has been seen in Latin America.
¶4. (SBU) The Governor was quick to point out, however,
that a slowdown in the reforms would not lead to another
of the catastrophic crises that Turkey has known in the
past. The difference would be between relatively weak,
but positive, growth and the high growth rates necessary
for Turkey's living standards to approach EU averages.
---------------------------------
Minimal Risk from Current Account
---------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) Serdengecti minimized the risk coming from a
large current account deficit relative to GDP. The move
to a floating exchange rate system meant that sharp
adjustments in the balance of payments could lead to
market turbulence but not an old style payments crisis.
Also, the ongoing lengthening of the maturity of current
account financing was reducing chances of an abrupt
adjustment. Furthermore, the actual deficit/GDP ratio is
probably lower than the current figure because a) some of
the large amount of positive net errors and omissions
should be included in the current account, and b) GDP
will undoubtedly be revised upward. He attributed "noise
in the press" about the current account and strong lira
to politics: economic actors who bet against the success
of the disinflation policies and kept their savings in
foreign currency. As the lira strengthened, these people
were losers.
¶6. (SBU) Other risks included increases in world energy
prices, a crisis in relations with the EU, and regional
political uncertainties. (The Governor was particularly
concerned about the impact of an international crisis
involving Iran, but also was very aware by the dangers
presented by a nuclear Iran.) He thought the chances of
a global emerging markets contraction were probably
diminishing, and noted that the changing composition of
current account financing left Turkey somewhat less
exposed to external developments.
¶7. (SBU) Prompted by Ambassador, Serdengecti noted that
ANKARA 00000346 002 OF 002
adverse political developments in Turkey were also a
risk. He said the next parliamentary elections would be
the acid test of how successful Turkey's political system
has been in adapting to sound economic policies. In the
past, elections had normally led to changes in government
for reasons related to the inflationary economic
environment. If the incumbent government were to lose in
a disinflationary environment, this would confirm a
fundamental instability in Turkish politics. He did not
think that elections in themselves would necessarily lead
to market turbulence. If markets were able to foresee
the outcome beforehand, as was the case in 1999 and 2002,
they should remain calm.
------------------------
No Idea on Reappointment
------------------------
¶8. (SBU) As for his personal future, Serdengecti
claimed to have no idea if the AKP would reappoint him
(reftel). He suspected that the AKP is divided over the
issue. While the party likes to appoint its own people
to such positions, it is not always able to find
qualified people within its ranks. The best economists
are in Istanbul and not associated with the AKP.
Although there are qualified economists in the AKP,
including some at the Central Bank appointed by the AKP,
their shortcoming is that they are not likely to be
inclined to stand-up to the government and politicians,
which any independent central banker needs to be able to
do to keep his or her credibilty.
--------------------------------------------- ----
POLITICIANS NOT ON BOARD FOR STABILITY AND REFORM
--------------------------------------------- ----
¶9. (SBU) The Ambassador noted United States support for
Turkey's reforms and asked how he and the United States
could best tailor messages that support continued reform.
Serdengecti expressed his appreciation for the U.S.
support, especially his good relations with the U.S.
Treasury. He observed that despite the success of good
policies, Turkish politicians still do not fully
understand the need for stability and reform. They tend
only to make the right decisions in extremis when obliged
by markets. In such an environment, messages seen as
applying external pressure were more likely than not to
be counter-productive.
¶10. (SBU) The Governor also said he was preoccupied by
recent strains in political relations between the United
States and Turkey. Such difficulties are not healthy for
Turkey, and are difficult to understand given everything
the United States has done for Turkey since 1946. As a
central banker who spends 50% of his time on public
relations, he said he has an understanding of what it
like to be unpopular and the difficulty of changing
public attitudes. The Turkish public has, he said, a
short memory, which means it is necessary to take every
opportunity to remind people of what the United States
has done for Turkey. Ambassador agreed that this was a
concern and a very difficult problem. He said it was
also important to be seen as listening to and hearing the
concerns of others, even if there was not necessarily
agreement on how to deal with those concerns.
WILSON