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Viewing cable 08FRANKFURT617, BLACK-GREEN: GERMANY SEARCHES FOR NEW COALITION OPTIONS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08FRANKFURT617 2008-03-03 08:53 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Frankfurt
VZCZCXYZ0199
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHC #0617/01 0630853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030853Z MAR 08
FM SECSTATE WASHINGTON DC
TO RHMCSUU/DA AMHS WASHINGTON DC
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4918
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: BLACK-GREEN: GERMANY SEARCHES FOR NEW COALITION OPTIONS 
FOLLOWING STATE ELECTIONS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
REF: HAMBURG 0007 
 
1.  SUMMARY.  THE RECENT STATE ELECTIONS IN HAMBURG, LOWER SAXONY 
AND HESSE HAVE SOLIDIFIED THE EMERGENCE OF THE LEFT PARTY AND 
ESTABLISHED A FIVE-PARTY PRESENCE IN WESTERN GERMANY, FORCING 
POLITICIANS TO CONSIDER NON-TRADITIONAL COALITION OPTIONS.  THE CDU 
AND GREENS ARE FOR THE FIRST TIME CONSIDERING FORMING A COALITION (A 
SO-CALLED "BLACK-GREEN" COALITION) IN HAMBURG, WHICH COULD OPEN THE 
DOOR FOR SUCH A POSSIBILITY AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL.  BLACK-GREEN 
COALITIONS HAVE GOVERNED SUCCESSFULLY AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL IN 
GERMANY FOR SEVERAL YEARS.  THIS CABLE EXAMINES SUCH COALITIONS IN 
SOUTHWEST GERMANY, HIGHLIGHTING AREAS OF SUCCESSFUL BLACK-GREEN 
COOPERATION ON FINANCIAL, CIVIC AND FAMILY ISSUES, AS WELL AS 
UNRESOLVED DIFFERENCES IN AREAS SUCH AS THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
FRANKFURT: LOWER TAXES, BUT NO RUNWAY 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.  THE MOST PROMINENT EXAMPLE OF A GOVERNING COALITION BETWEEN THE 
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (CDU) AND THE GREEN PARTY AT THE 
MUNICIPAL LEVEL IS IN GERMANY'S FINANCIAL CAPITAL, FRANKFURT.  AFTER 
THE MAY 2006 MUNICIPAL ELECTION, THE CDU-CENTRIST PETRA ROTH BECAME 
LORD MAYOR IN THE SO-CALLED "COALITION OF REALISM" WITH THE GREEN 
PARTY.  GARNERING 15.6% OF THE VOTE, THE MODERATE FRANKFURT GREENS 
FURTHER ESTABLISHED THEIR VOTER BASE IN AFFLUENT FRANKFURT AMONG 
YOUNG PROFESSIONALS AND EDUCATED VOTERS AND DISTANCED THEIR PARTY 
FROM ITS LEFTIST PAST.  CONSIDERED MORE CENTRIST AND FISCALLY 
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SPD), THE FRANKFURT 
GREENS HAVE WORKED WITH THE CDU TO DECREASE CORPORATE TAXES TO 
STIMULATE GROWTH AND FORM A CITIZENS' POLICE FORCE, AMONG OTHER 
INITIATIVES. 
 
3.  FRANKFURT'S BLACK-GREEN COALITION HAS BEEN LESS SUCCESSFUL, 
HOWEVER IN WORKING TOGETHER ON OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS ON THE ISSUE OF 
AIRPORT ENLARGEMENT.  TO PRESERVE THE COALITION, THE GREENS AND THE 
CDU ABSTAINED ON THE ISSUE IN THE CITY COUNCIL BECAUSE OF A 
DISAGREEMENT OVER THE ISSUES OF NIGHT FLIGHTS.  OTHER PARTIES VOTED 
TO TAKE THE STATE TO COURT OVER THE ISSUE, FORCING CDU FRANKFURT 
LORD MAYOR PETRA ROTH IN TO THE AWKWARD SITUATION OF BRINGING SUIT 
AGAINST A PLAN INITIATED BY THE CDU GOVERNMENT OF HESSE.  WHILE THE 
GREENS AND THE CDU IN FRANKFURT ARE BOTH PRO-BUSINESS AND 
PRO-ENVIRONMENT, THE AIRPORT DISCUSSION REVEALS DIFFERING 
PRIORITIES, WHICH COULD CARRY OVER TO SIMILAR ISSUES AT THE STATE 
AND FEDERAL LEVELS. 
 
4.  AT THE STATE LEVEL IN HESSE, BLACK-GREEN COOPERATION HAS BEEN 
STYMIED BY INTENSE ANIMOSITY BETWEEN CONSERVATIVE CDU MINISTER 
PRESIDENT ROLAND KOCH AND MODERATE GREEN PARTY LEADER TAREK 
AL-WAZIR.  A SENIOR ADVISOR TO KOCH TOLD POLSPEC, HOWEVER, THAT HE 
SEES MANY AREAS OF OVERLAP IN THE CONTENT OF BOTH PARTIES' PROGRAMS. 
 WHILE THE JANUARY 27 STATE ELECTION HAS YET TO PRODUCE A 
GOVERNMENT, THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT THE CDU WILL FORM A 
GOVERNMENT WITH THE GREENS AND THE FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FDP), IF 
KOCH STEPS ASIDE.  MANY PUNDITS POINT TO FRANKFURT LORD MAYOR ROTH, 
A MODERATE CDU LEADER WITH A PROVEN HISTORY OF COOPERATION WITH THE 
GREENS, AS A POTENTIAL MINISTER PRESIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG: MOVING TOWARDS BLACK-GREEN 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  THE CONSERVATIVE SOUTHERN STATE OF BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG GAVE 
GERMANY ITS FIRST GREEN LORD MAYOR IN 1996 IN THE CITY OF KONSTANZ. 
THE STATE ALSO HAS GREEN LORDS MAYOR IN MAJOR TOWNS SUCH AS 
FREIBURG, TUEBINGEN AND MUEHLACKER.  WHILE BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG HAS NO 
COALITION SYSTEM AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL, THE MODERATE GREEN LORDS 
MAYOR WORK CLOSELY WITH THE CDU --  THE STATE'S DOMINANT PARTY -- IN 
THE CITY COUNCILS.  FOR EXAMPLE, FREIBURG'S LORD MAYOR DIETER 
SALOMON HAS ALLIED HIMSELF WITH THE CDU IN HIS EFFORT TO BALANCE THE 
BUDGET AND SELL OFF CITY-OWNED HOUSING.  BOTH SALOMON AND HIS 
TUEBINGEN COUNTERPART, BORIS PALMER, ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR PRAGMATIC, 
MODERATE POLITICS, EARNING THEM THE RESPECT OF THE CDU AND THE 
BUSINESS COMMUNITY.  IN THE STATE CAPITAL OF STUTTGART, THE GREEN 
MAYORAL CANDIDATE ACTUALLY WITHDREW FROM THE 2005 ELECTION CAMPAIGN 
TO ENDORSE HIS CDU COMPETITOR, WOLFGANG SHUSTER. 
 
6.  AFTER THE LAST STATE ELECTION IN 2006, THE BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG 
CDU MET TWICE WITH THE GREENS BEFORE SETTLING ON A COALITION WITH 
ITS TRADITIONAL ALLY, THE FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FDP).  MINISTER 
PRESIDENT GUENTHER OETTINGER STANDS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE CDU ON 
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, MAKING HIM AN APPEALING PARTNER FOR 
THE GREENS.  POLITICAL OBSERVERS ARE CONVINCED THAT A BLACK-GREEN 
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME IN THAT STATE.  A BLACK-GREEN 
COALITION AT THE STATE LEVEL, HOWEVER, WOULD FACE MORE COMPLEX 
CHALLENGES THAN AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL, FOR EXAMPLE, THE 
DECOMMISSIONING OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS.  WHILE THE NATIONAL CDU IS 
 
CURRENTLY MOVING FORWARD WITH DECOMMISSIONING AS PART OF ITS 
COALITION AGREEMENT WITH THE SPD, STATE-LEVEL POLITICIANS, INCLUDING 
OETTINGER, HAVE ARGUED THAT THIS POLICY MUST BE REVISITED IN ORDER 
TO MEET GERMANY'S ENERGY NEEDS. 
 
7.  COMMENT.  A BLACK-GREEN COALITION IN HAMBURG WOULD PROVIDE A 
TESTING GROUND FOR WHAT MANY SEE AS A PROMISING COALITION OPTION AT 
THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN 2009.  WITH THE RISING POPULARITY OF THE LEFT 
PARTY, THE TWO TRADITIONAL COALITION PARTNERSHIPS -- THE CDU WITH 
THE FDP AND THE SPD WITH THE GREENS -- NO LONGER YIELD MAJORITIES. 
THE EXPERIENCES IN HESSE AND BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG HIGHLIGHT AREAS 
WHERE MODERATE CDU AND GREEN POLITICIANS HAVE WORKED TOGETHER WITH 
SOME SUCCESS.  COOPERATION AT A HIGHER LEVEL WILL REQUIRE BOTH SIDES 
TO MOVE TO THE MIDDLE, BUT SERIOUS COMPROMISES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED 
ON ISSUES SUCH AS ENERGY, FOREIGN POLICY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, WHERE 
THE TWO PARTIES DO NOT ALWAYS SEE EYE TO EYE. 
 
8.  THIS CABLE HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH EMBASSY BERLIN AND 
CONSULATE GENERAL HAMBURG. 
POWELL