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Viewing cable 08SURABAYA73, EAST JAVA: LOCAL ELECTIONS PROVE ISSUES MATTER TO VOTERS,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SURABAYA73 2008-06-18 07:27 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Consulate Surabaya
VZCZCXRO1962
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0073/01 1700727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180727Z JUN 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0235
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0221
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0240
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0004
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0121
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000073 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KISL ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA:  LOCAL ELECTIONS PROVE ISSUES MATTER TO VOTERS, 
EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CLERICS ARE STRONG 
 
REF: A. A SURBAYA 56 (JAWA POS AWARDS) 
     B. B SURABAYA 51 (POLITICS IN EAST JAVA'S LARGEST MUSLIM ORGANIZATION) 
     C. C 07 SURABAYA 89 (JAWA POS SURVEY AND LOCAL ELECTIONS) 
 
SURABAYA 00000073  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Based on the results of the most recent nine 
local elections for Regent in East Java Province, two things are 
clear.  First, poor performance usually dooms incumbents no 
matter the size of the campaign war chest.  Second, in a few 
more conservative districts, support from Islamic clerics 
matters more than good policy.  If these local elections are any 
guide, elections in this second most populous Indonesian 
province are increasingly reflecting voter's democratic 
aspirations.  While Gus Dur's National Awakening Party (PKB) 
remains strong where clerics are most influential, the 
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) showed strength 
in all other areas. 
 
Jawa Pos--Polling Voter Satisfaction 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Each year, the Jawa Pos Pro-Autonomy Institute (JPIP) 
ranks public perception of government performance in 38 East 
Java regencies and cities based on public opinion surveys (Ref 
A).  When these rankings are compared with recent election 
results, it is clear that government performance, has an 
influence on voter choice, although it is mitigated by other 
factors, particularly in religiously conservative regions. 
Voter satisfaction with performance in the areas of Health, 
Political Participation, Administration, and Accountability 
seemed most strongly linked to election success.  Performance in 
the areas of Education and Economic Growth appeared less 
directly linked.  In all six of the districts where challengers 
won, government performance was weakest in the categories of 
Political Participation, Health, Administration, and 
Accountability.  High rankings in Education and Economic Growth 
did not save these incumbents.  Government performance in two of 
the districts where an incumbent won had high ranks in Political 
Participation, and to a lesser extent, Administration. 
Education and Economic Growth rankings varied widely between 
these districts. 
 
3. (SBU) The incumbent won in only three out of nine recent 
regency elections.  In two of these regencies (Probolinggo and 
Tulung Agung), the districts had average JPIP rankings and the 
winning incumbent enjoyed broad political support.  In the other 
case (Bangkalan), the district had very low JPIP rankings, but 
the incumbent still won with 80.79% of the vote.  JPIP rankings 
were very low in three of the six regencies won by a challenger 
(Nganjuk, Bojonegoro, and Sampang).  The challenger also won in 
Magetan, where the regent's performance was mid-ranked (20 out 
of 38).  The anomaly is Pasaruan, which boasted an incumbent 
with broad political support and placed second in overall JPIP 
rankings. 
 
PKB and PDI-P 
----------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) In religiously conservative districts, Muslim clerics 
(Kiai) continue their strong influence on local voters (Ref B). 
Kiai are highly respected Islamic leaders and teachers who are 
especially influential in the `Tapal Kuda' or `horseshoe-shaped' 
coastline surrounding East Java's Madura Sea.  Two Kiai won 
elections on the island of Madura -- the incumbent in Bangkalan, 
and a challenger in Pamekasan.  This probably explains why 
Bangkalan's incumbent was re-elected despite rock-bottom Jawa 
Pos rankings and the challenger in Pamekasan defeated an 
incumbent whose programs won awards from JPIP.  Conversely, 
candidates with strong Kiai support but low JPIP rankings lost 
in Bojonegoro and Nganjuk.  Both are regencies outside the Tapal 
Kuda region where Kiai influence is weaker. 
 
5.  (SBU) Two major national parties seem to have divided voters 
in the province -- PDI-P and PKB.  Candidates supported by the 
Kiai-linked National Awakening Party (PKB) were most successful 
in the Tapal Kuda region.  PKB was created by former Indonesian 
President Gus Dur as a political outlet for members of Nahdlatul 
Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organization in Indonesia.  PKB 
success in the Tapal Kuda region indicates that it still wields 
power where Kiai influence remains strong.  However PKB's 
inability to win outside of Tapal Kuda may indicate that the 
growing disunity within PKB has hurt it in the province more 
broadly, perhaps irreparably. 
 
SURABAYA 00000073  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
6. (SBU) Outside of Tapal Kuda, PDI-P dominated, winning three 
out of three races.  In Kiai-dominant district of Pasuruan, the 
PDI-P candidate defeated the well-regarded incumbent supported 
by Golkar and the National Mandate Party (PAN) and a second 
candidate supported by PKB, the Democratic Party and Gus Dur. 
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) allied itself with two of the 
victorious PDI-P candidates (including in Pasuruan), suggesting 
that NU members' traditional distrust of PKS may be waning. 
MCCLELLAND