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Viewing cable 06ANKARA998, FDI TO TURKEY BREAKS RECORDS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06ANKARA998 | 2006-02-28 14:48 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara |
VZCZCXRO1766
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #0998/01 0591448
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281448Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3578
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 9940
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0450
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000998
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR CPLANTIER
PASS USTR FOR LISA ERRION
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/CRUSNAK
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EINV EFIN BEXP TU
SUBJECT: FDI TO TURKEY BREAKS RECORDS
This cable has been coordinated with Congen Istanbul.
1.(SBU) Summary: After years of attracting anemic FDI
inflows, in 2005 Turkey finally recorded a major
inflow: $9.6 billion. The leap in FDI is attributable
to large privatizations and opportunities in the
financial, retail and telecoms sectors, as well as
Turkey's rapid growth, EU candidate status, resolution
of investor disputes, streamlined investment procedures
and increasingly stable political and economic
situation. While higher FDI looks set to continue
through 2007 as installments for deals concluded in
2005 come due, sustaining these levels over time will
require continued reforms, particularly in improving
the climate for doing business and making the judicial
and regulatory systems more transparent and
predictable. End Summary.
-----------------------------------------
Nearly Ten Billion Dollars in FDI in 2005
-----------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) For years Turkey has attracted an anemic level
of FDI despite its strategic geographic position,
substantial internal market, youthful population, EU
customs union agreement, relatively low-cost/good
quality labor force and high average annual GDP growth.
The paltry FDI flows were attributed to Turkey's boom-
and-bust economic instability, wobbly and anti-reform
coalition governments, corruption, high taxes and an
anti-foreigner and anti-private sector bias among
Turkish judges and bureaucrats. From 1995 through
2000, net FDI never got above one billion dollars in a
single year. Even in 2004, with two years of post-
crisis stabilization and growth under its belt, Turkey
attracted only $2.8 billion, of which $1.3 billion was
real estate purchases by foreigners. These figures are
small both in relation to GDP and in relation to
comparator countries.
¶3. (SBU) Full year 2005 Balance of Payments data
confirm what had become increasingly clear in the
course of the year: 2005 was a turning point, and FDI
has taken off. FDI inflows surged to $9.65 billion-a
239 percent increase -- of which only $1.8 billion was
for real estate purchases. Using the Institute for
International Finance's calculation that FDI to 29
major emerging markets totaled $135 billion in 2005,
Turkey accounted for seven percent of the total for
this group of countries.
2003 2004 2005
---- ---- ----
FDI inflows to Turkey 1.75 2.82 9.65
(in $ billions)
% of Turkey's GNP 0.76% 0.95% 2.7%
% of major EM FDI inflows 1.8% 2.1% 7.1%
Source: Central Bank, IIF
---------------
Why the Change?
---------------
¶4. (SBU) Though the current AK Party government has
been talking a pro-foreign investment line since taking
office in November, 2002, it is striking that FDI only
took off in 2005. Several of the negative factors
remain: corruption, high taxes, an anti-foreigner
judiciary, and regulatory bias for domestic companies,
as well as an over-regulated labor market that inflates
the cost of hiring and firing. These factors explain
the near-total absence of greenfield investment:
foreign investors almost always take a local partner
who knows how to work the Turkish system.
¶5. (SBU) In 2005, however, the balance clearly tipped
in favor of new FDI. Among the key factors explaining
the change:
--Firmed up EU accession country status: the EU's
ANKARA 00000998 002 OF 004
December 17, 2004 decision to set a date to begin
accession negotiations gave investors a high
probability that Turkey would at least start the
accession process with the launch of negotiations. The
October 3 launch confirmed investors' bets. The
prospects of Turkey being locked into the stabilizing,
modernizing EU accession process -- even if ultimate
accession is far from assured -- provides an "anchor"
that gives investors a degree of confidence.
--Continued stabilization and growth of the economy:
Though Turkey's economy performed well every year since
the crisis, by 2005 Turkey had three straight years of
strong growth, fiscal discipline, declining inflation
and declining interest rates. Turkey's economy has
grown 22 percent since the crisis. With the risk of
another crisis greatly reduced, prospects for continued
strong growth coupled with reasonable levels of
inflation were key.
--Relative political stability: Turkey suffered through
coalition governments throughout the 1990's, with
attendant spoils-seeking and indecisveness on reform.
Since the November 2002 eletion, Turkey has had three
straight years of single-party, more or less pro-reform
AKP government. With AK likely to hold onto power into
2007, and perhaps beyond, investors were willing to
take the plunge.
--Sectoral opportunities: Certain sectors in particular
held out the prospect of strong growth over the long-
term. Strong current sales and excellent prospects in
retail, financial, automotive, housing and white goods
are partly due to the fall in inflation and both real
and nominal interest rates. Turkey's thirty-plus years
of high inflation and interest rates effectively
eliminated access to credit for all but blue chips and
wealthy individuals who could borrow offshore. When
borrowing money finally became affordable, Turkey's
growing middle class, encouraged by banks trying to
transition away from over-reliance on government
securities portfolios, borrowed to buy cars, washing
machines, housing, etc. In each sector there were
other factors as well: auto and white goods companies
like Turkey as a low-cost platform for export to the
EU; supermarkets are taking business from mom-and-pop
stores; and retail banking is underdeveloped. The
telecoms sector, long dominated by the state telecoms
company, is poised to take off through a combination of
privatization, liberalization, internet and computer
penetration, and rising incomes.
--Privatization: After years of struggling to
successfully complete transactions, in 2005, the
Privatization Authority finally solved some of its
legal and operational problems and successfully
completed three large privatizations: the Tupras oil
refinery, Erdemir steel mills, and Turk Telekom. Only
the latter was acquired by a majority-foreign buyer,
but it was also the biggest deal: $6.5 billion to be
spread over several years. Also in the telecoms
sector, the bank deposit guarantee agency sold a $4.5
billion controlling share in Turkey's second-largest
cell phone company, Telsim, to Vodafone of the UK,
however Vodafone's purchase will only be recorded in
the 2006 balance of payments.
-- Resolution of high-profile investment disputes: By
the end of 2005, the AKP government had resolved, in
one way or another, the high-profile investment
disputes it inherited from its predecessors. For U.S.
companies, this includes Cargill's problems in
obtaining zoning permission for its $150 million
sweetener factory near Bursa, and Motorola's settlement
of its $1.8 billion claim against the bank deposit
guarantee agency for a fraud committed against it and
Nokia. Although other, smaller scale business issues
remain, putting these headline grabbing disputes behind
it has undoubtedly contributed to an improved
reputation in international business circles.
-- Progress in reducing red tape and bureaucracy:
Turkey's 2003 foreign investment law eliminated prior
screening requirements for foreign investment, and
ANKARA 00000998 003 OF 004
opened nearly all sectors to foreign investment on a
national treatment basis. The World Bank's Doing
Business database reports that it took 9 days and 8
procedures to create a new business in 2005, compared
to 38 days and 13 procedures in 2003. Although there
is more to be done, particularly in rationalizing
permitting and licensing procedures, this is remarkable
progress in a country long known for its oppressive
bureaucracy.
----------------
Financial Sector
----------------
¶6. (SBU) Most notable was the action in the financial
sector. Even though the process of privatization of
state-owned banks continues to move at a snail's pace,
private bank owners proved open to selling stakes or
control to foreigners. Garanti Bank, which had been in
negotiations with an Italian bank in 2004, agreed to
sell a 50 percent stake to GE Capital of the U.S. in
2005, and the $1.8 billion payment showed up in the FDI
data in December of 2005. Another major transaction
was the purchase of the shares held by Cukurova group
in Yapi Kredi Bank by a consortium of Koc Group and
Unicredito of Italy. BNP of France bought a stake in
TEB. A Greek bank bought a small brokerage. Benelux-
based Fortis Group bought control of Dis Bank. All in
all, the share of foreign ownership in the banking
sector rose from 3% to 13%, according to the Bank
Regulatory Agency.
--------------------------------------------- -
Long-term financing in the Balance of Payments
--------------------------------------------- -
¶7. (SBU) FDI benefits Turkey in a number of ways:
access to international expertise and technology,
better integration into an increasingly globalized
international economy, and long-term, non-debt-creating
finance for the balance of payments. The latter is
particularly welcome now, since Turkey's current
account deficit suged in 2005, largely due to sharply
higher energy imports. FDI, as opposed to short-term
portfolio investment, provides a stable source of
financing that cannot run for the exits in a downturn.
---------------------------------------
FDI likely to continue in 2006 and 2007
---------------------------------------
8.(SBU) As good as the news of strong FDI inflows in
2005 is the near-certainty these inflows will continue
in 2006 and 2007. Many of the above-mentioned
transactions, such as Turk Telekom and Telsim, call for
the buyer to pay in instalments over several years.
The Vodafone deal will show up in 2006 FDI. Moreover,
the market is rife with rumors and plans for new deals.
For example, Finansbank, Denizbank, and Akbank have all
retained advisors for sale of their shares or of a
controlling stake. At the same time, the state bank
privatization process finally looks like it might pull
off a sale of Halk Bank.
9.(SBU) In a recent poll of its members, the Turkish
Foreign Investors' Association, YASED, found foreign
investors in a bullish frame of mind. 73% expected the
economic climate for FDI likely to get better, 27%
thought it would stay the same and none thought it
would get worse, while 51% thought they would be making
additional investments in the future.
¶10. (SBU) Still, sustaining over the long term the
high levels of FDI Turkey needs to create jobs and
catch up with EU living standards will require
continued reforms to improve the business and
investment climate. In addition to reducing still
complicated business registration procedures, licensing
requirements and other bureaucratic red tape, the World
Bank's "Doing Business" database shows that Turkey
compares unfavorably with competitor countries in area
of labor market regulation, particularly the ease of
hiring and firing workers
http://www.osis.gov/state/posts/turkecon/2005 /12/PRN_do
ANKARA 00000998 004 OF 004
ing_business_1.html). Easing up on these regulations
and fostering a more entrepreneurial environment will
be a political challenge for this or future
governments.
WILSON