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Viewing cable 06BRASILIA961, BRAZIL - CENTRAL BANK RESOLUTE IN FACE OF INTEREST RATE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BRASILIA961 | 2006-05-17 16:02 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO8276
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #0961/01 1371602
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171602Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5393
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4775
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6961
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2077
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4012
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5506
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5429
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6246
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1967
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3247
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3747
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1820
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4584
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2991
RUEHC/USDOC WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000961
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR CRONIN
TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE, DDOUGLAS
STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/SHUPKA
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC
E.O. DECL:05/16/2016
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL - CENTRAL BANK RESOLUTE IN FACE OF INTEREST RATE
FLAK FROM FINANCE MINISTER
REF: A) BRASILIA 0665
B) BRASILIA 0790
C) BRASILIA 0888 and previous
Classified by Economic Counselor Bruce Williamson, reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: Over the weekend of May 6-7, newly-appointed
Finance Minister Guido Mantega made statements to the press
which appeared to condition positive relations between the
Finance Ministry and the Central Bank (BCB)on continued CB
interest rate reductions. The Bank's Monetary Policy Director,
Rodrigo Azevedo, told Emboff that the CB was confident of its
direct line to President Lula and is not allowing political
pressure to play a part in interest rate decisions. Another
Bank official stated to us that the CB no longer pays any
attention to Mantega's "artless" declarations. While the
markets have taken all this in stride and appear to have
discounted occasional Mantega outbursts on interest rates as
inconsequential, there is a more serious subtext here, involving
the debate over policies to be pursued in a potential second
Lula administration. While Lula is unlikely to meddle much with
the broad outlines of macroeconomic policy were he to win a
second mandate, his ability to pursue substantial microeconomic
reform, particularly to address urgent fiscal and tax reforms,
is in doubt. Under this scenario, look for the Brazilian
economy to continue simply muddling through. End Summary.
¶2. (U) Over the weekend of May 6-7, Finance Minister Mantega,
who has been in the job for about a month-and-a-half, made
remarks to the press suggesting that the tenor of his
relationship with the Central Bank would depend on continued
decisions by the BCB to reduce the overnight benchmark rate (the
SELIC), which currently stands at 15.75%. The BCB has reduced
rates in each of its meetings since September 2005, when the
SELIC stood at 19.75%, in response to falling inflation
expectations. Most analysts expect the cycle of monetary
loosening to continue. According to a May 12 Central Bank
survey, financial market institutions expect the SELIC to be
lowered to 14% by the end of 2006. (Note: Given market
inflation expectations of 4.5% for 2007, this would still mean a
forward-looking real interest rate of almost 10%.)
¶3. (C) During his first couple of weeks on the job, Mantega was
careful to minimize his previous criticisms of BCB interest rate
policy, made while in his prior positions as Planning Minister
and then as President of the National Development Bank (BNDES)
(Ref A). More recently, however, he has made some remarks that
Central Bank Investor Relations Department Head Pedro Fachada
termed "artless." In a joint television interview with Bank
Monetary Policy Director Rodrigo Azevedo, Mantega stated the
only problem with Brazil's economy right now was the appreciated
exchange rate, a statement which Fachada said had led to
elicited pointed questioning on what Brazil's future exchange
rate policy might be. This was followed by Mantega's May 6-7
pronouncement, which appeared to premise good institutional
relations between the Finance Ministry and BCB on continued rate
hikes. Bank President Meirelles, who at the time was in Basel
for Bank for International Settlements (BIS) meetings,
reportedly stated that the Central Bank listens to the Finance
Minister but makes its interest rate decisions based on
technical criteria, not political ones.
Does Mantega's Mouthing-Off Matter?
-----------------------------------
¶4. (C) Azevedo told Econoff May 9 that the Central Bank is
confident of its new, direct line to President Lula. Even
BRASILIA 00000961 002 OF 003
though the Bank "heard" Mantega's statements, monetary policy
decisions, he affirmed, would continue to be made on technical
grounds. Fachada was dismissive of Mantega in a later
conversation with Econoff, stating that the Bank was,
essentially, ignoring Mantega. What Mantega says about exchange
rates and monetary policy, Fachada declared, is no longer
relevant. The nominations of the two new Central Bank directors
(both reputable economists) were moving forward without
political interference; they should have confirmation hearings
soon, according to Fachada. IMF Resident Representative Max
Alier stated to Econoff May 16 that Mantega was simply a
caretaker in the portfolio, and would not be allowed to affect
BCB policy decisions.
¶5. (C) UN Economist Carlos Mussi reinforced these points in a
May 10 meeting, noting that Meirelles has become a de facto
cabinet minister, reporting directly to the President.
Moreover, since Meirelles is expected to leave at the end of the
year when the new administration takes office, Mussi stated, he
has little to lose in asserting forcefully the BCB's
independence. Financial markets, moreover, have hardly batted
an eye, with the Real remaining strong and measures of Brazil
risk fluctuating little. Mussi argued that the stage is set for
interest rate and exchange rate policy to continue as they have
through the elections. On the fiscal side, the GoB would be
practicing more expansionary fiscal policy on the margin as
Mantega would ensure the GoB did not over-perform the 4.25% of
GDP primary surplus target, according to Mussi. Mantega,
however, is not politically strong enough to lower the 4.25%
target, as perhaps he and other PT cadre would like, Mussi
argued.
But longer Term is a Question Mark
----------------------------------
¶5. (C) But the public jockeying back and forth has raised
questions about economic policy in a second Lula term. In
Mussi's evaluation, Mantega either fails to understand or does
not really care about the importance of reducing the debt-to-GDP
ratio. He noted that Former Finance Minister Palocci had been
able to manage the natural tensions of Lula's "Popular
Orthodoxy" economic policies, i.e., orthodox macroeconomic
policies combined with increased spending on social programs.
Lula and Palocci had been aided by a benign inflationary
environment as well, Mussi stated, which allowed freer spending.
Without Palocci, however, and with only de facto Central Bank
independence, Mussi was concerned that there were no candidates
to step in and play the role of advocate for sound orthodox
policies in a potential Lula second term. Meanwhile, other
analysts have expressed misgivings to Post about Mantega's
economic instincts should a crisis occur.
¶6. (C) There are several "structural" problems which may create
rougher sledding ahead for Lula's second term, according to
Mussi. First is the potential shortfall in power generation
capacity foreseen for the 2009/2010 time frame (this could
happen earlier if a gas cutoff or shortage results from the
current impasse with Bolivia - ref B.) Second, Mussi is worried
that agricultural producers, whose earnings have been squeezed
by the appreciated exchange rate, might increase acreage devoted
to cash crops at the expense of production of low-margin staple
foods. This would create inflationary pressure on food prices.
Next, Mussi pointed out, continued exchange rate appreciation
could well trigger a consumption boom, fed by ballooning
imports. Finally, on the fiscal side, revenue growth is falling
off while obligatory expenditures, fed in particular by the
government's wage bill and the social security deficit, have
been growing apace. Lula, Mussi stated, would require sound
BRASILIA 00000961 003 OF 003
economic advice to deal with these problems but it was unclear
who would provide such unfiltered counsel.
¶7. (C) Although Lula already is openly campaigning for
re-election despite not having officially declared his
candidacy, his stump speech does not address the critical need
for microeconomic reforms. No one knows, Mussi stated, what his
proposal for tackling the social security deficit is, or what he
plans to do about the byzantine and burdensome tax system and
the interlocking fiscal reforms necessary to reform the
budgetary straitjacket imposed by constitutional earmarks and
revenue sharing requirements (ref C). The IMF's Alier pointed
out that the end-2007 expiration of the temporary de-earmarking
legislation (the DRU, which exempts 20% of federal revenues from
the constitutional earmarks and revenue sharing requirements),
along with the expiration of the financial transactions tax
(CPMF), would force fiscal issues to the center of public
debate. (Note: without the DRU, the federal government would not
have the cash to meet its debt-service obligations.) During a
second mandate, however, Lula is expected to have less political
capital and a weaker congressional base, thus reducing his
capacity to use the opportunity presented by the expiration of
these measures to push more extensive reforms through Congress.
Mussi suggested that in the absence of leadership on reforms
from the federal government, reform-minded state governments,
depending on the outcome of the gubernatorial races in several
key states -- especially Sao Paulo -- might become a force
pushing for fiscal/budgetary reform. Separately, Alier was
dismissive of the idea that the state governments could lead
reform efforts.
¶8. (C) Comment: Although the Central Bank is confident of its
independence from Finance Minister Mantega and can be expected
to continue to pursue an apolitical monetary policy, Mantega's
recent statements exacerbate the questions about the coherence
of economic policy to be pursued in a possible second Lula
administration. Lula understands the importance of Central Bank
independence and likely would maintain the current arrangements,
i.e. de facto BCB policy-making independence and a line of
authority directly to himself. Nor do we expect any radical
departures on fiscal policy, which would face significant
institutional resistance from the finance and planning ministry
senior technical staff and legal hurdles imposed by the fiscal
responsibility law. But maintaining the status quo on the broad
outlines of macroeconomic policy is insufficient to move Brazil
to the higher growth rates necessary to addressing entrenched
poverty and economic disparities between regions and social
classes.
¶9. (C) Comment Continued: Progress on microeconomic and
structural reforms, which could contribute to increasing
potential growth rates, is a much more difficult question. We
do not expect action to grant formal Central Bank independence,
even though the Mantega case has highlighted its importance.
And while it's too early to foresee the coalition politics of
the next Congress, at this point it's hard to imagine Lula being
strong enough in his second term to push through broad-based
fiscal, tax and labor market reform, arguably the highest
priorities for any incoming administration. That is not to say
that Lula would be hamstrung, as the GoB could implement less
comprehensive measures, such as the 2004 payroll-deduction loan
program which successfully reduced lending spreads and sparked
credit growth. Barring strong pressure for reforms from
unexpected quarters, such as reformist state governments, the
Brazilian economy under any Lula II administration looks likely
to continue simply muddling through.
CHICOLA