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Viewing cable 09KABUL2104, PRT Mazar-e-Sharif: Sar-e-pul Provincial Assessment
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09KABUL2104 | 2009-07-30 04:11 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Kabul |
VZCZCXRO9785
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2104/01 2110411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300411Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0431
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002104
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: PRT Mazar-e-Sharif: Sar-e-pul Provincial Assessment
REF: Kabul 1735
Summary
-------
¶1. (SBU) Security throughout most of Sar-e-pul province remains
relatively good, but has worsened in areas bordering neighboring
Jowzjan and Faryab provinces. Almalek village of Sayyad district
has been ground zero for Mullah Nadir's insurgent gangs, who
continue to exploit the weaknesses of the Afghan National Security
Forces (ANSF), particularly their inability to coordinate operations
across provincial borders with their counterparts in Faryab and
Jowzjan. Despite a rocky start to his tenure, Governor Chayabi has
established productive working relationships with his administration
and provincial council members. One of the least developed
provinces in the country, Sar-e-pul has not finalized its provincial
development plan and is struggling to attract reconstruction
projects from the national development budget and from donors.
Security
--------
¶2. (SBU) The story emerging over the past several months has been
the emergence of Mullah Nadir and his roving gangs of armed men as a
destabilizing force in the northwestern part of the province.
Nadir, a Tajik criminal who has been on the run ever since murdering
an Afghan policeman two years ago, uses Almalek village, Sayyad
district, as his operating base. He has spent time in Pakistan and
is believed to be receiving support from the Taliban. ANSF
officials hold him accountable for the March murders of the
district governor, police chief, and nine policemen from adjacent
Qush Teppeh district in Jowzjan province. Mullah Amrullah, a Nadir
associate, has reportedly reconciled with the government. The
provincial intelligence chief said that he will be keeping an eye on
him to make sure he is not playing both sides.
¶3. (SBU) Two ANSF-led operations supported by ISAF since then were
unsuccessful largely due to the lack of effective cross-border
cooperation with the Jowzjan and Faryab ANSF. Consequently, this
has provided a morale boost to Nadir, who enjoys freedom of movement
precisely because the undermanned Afghan National Police (ANP) are
unable to man and support a check post there without fear of being
overrun by Nadir's armed gangs. Both Chayabi and his deputy believe
that the ANP's morale has bottomed to the point where they are too
scared to fight the insurgency in Sayyad. The recent deployment to
Sar-e-pul of a company of 120 Afghan National Army soldiers to help
provide election security is an encouraging development, but they
are expected to stay only for a few months.
¶4. (SBU) The security picture throughout the rest of the province is
incomplete. There have been two IED finds along the paved road
connecting Sheberghan, Jowzjan province, with Sar-e-pul's provincial
center. Apart from another IED found in Sancharak district last
February, there have been no other reported significant security
incidents either there or in the districts of Sozma Qala and
Gosfandi since the beginning of 2009. Balkhab district, home to
large pockets of ethnic Hazaras, remains calm. Little is known
about the smuggling networks which are widely believed to be intact
in the province despite assertions to the contrary by Chayabi. The
Swedish PRT, operating from its safehouse in Sar-e-pul's provincial
center, is only collecting intelligence in the northern-most part of
Kohistanat district - the most remote in the province. There,
insurgents are spilling over not only from Sayyad district but also
from Belcharagh district in Faryab province and seeking refuge in
the mountains. The attempted assassination by of the Kohistanat
district governor earlier this spring attests to deteriorating
security conditions in certain parts of the district.
¶5. (SBU) Sar-e-pul's provincial elections officer is an experienced
IEC hand, yet he worries about the safety of voting centers in
Almalek, Chartut and other trouble-prone villages of Sayyad district
because of their poor security. The Sar-e-pul police chief is
worried by the police manpower needed to support the 136 voting
centers province-wide. With only 500 men in the force, he will need
support from Kabul or from the Afghan army in order to place, on
average, ten policemen per voting center, for a total of 1,360 men.
As per an order from the Ministry of Interior, Sar-e-pul's ANP will
recruit 100 ANP soldiers and send them to work in Kabul.
¶6. (SBU) Sar-e-pul's ANSF are making the transition, albeit not
seamlessly, from the Joint Provincial Coordination Center to the
Provincial Operations Coordination Center (OCC-P). The Afghan
National Army brigadier general who arrived to head the center will
have to learn how to forge teamwork among his 37-man staff of ANA,
ANP, and NDS (national intelligence) personnel. U.S.
military-funded MPRI trainers will train the OCC-P staff for two
weeks, and the U.S. Police Mentoring Team (PMT), newly arrived to
the province, will provide follow-on mentoring. INL-funded Dyncorps
KABUL 00002104 002 OF 003
mentors continue to work with provincial police staff on such
systems as personnel and logistics, but the mentors' effectiveness
is hampered by their contractual restrictions on travel. Without
accommodations in Sar-e-pul, the mentors must make day trips from
Mazar-e Sharif. A round-trip takes six hours, which does not leave
much time for quality mentoring. The European Union Police (EUPOL)
has not assigned personnel to work in the province, but the Swedish
PRT's police liaison officer helps out when he can.
Governance
----------
¶7. (SBU) Governor Chayabi, a former mujahideen commander from Takhar
province, made his debut on the governance stage last August to less
than rave reviews. After a rough first few months, which saw him
alienate his own deputy and the Provincial Council, Chayabi seems to
be settling into the job. Fortunately, he has heeded advice from
his own advisor about the importance of consulting with other
members of his administration and the Provincial Council (PC) before
making key decisions. Since then, he has improved relations with
both groups and has even instituted an "open door" policy for anyone
from the province wishing to meet him. As a mujahideen commander,
Chayabi had a history of narco-trafficking from Takhar province to
Tajikistan. Although allegations of his continuing involvement in
illicit activity occasionally surface, no smoking gun has been
uncovered to implicate him.
¶8. (SBU) The Provincial Council, as in most other provinces, has
struggled to find its voice and role at times. Led by Mr. Azizi,
who is also the provincial head of the Junbesh Party, the PC is now
on better terms with the governor after a rocky start to their
relationship. Governor Chayabi seems to have made amends for his
early missteps and has since accepted invitations to lunch with PC
members in their office. All but one of the council members intend
to run again in this year's PC elections.
¶9. (SBU) The three-decades-long conflict between ethnic Arabs and
the Pashtun Esaqzai tribe edged closer to resolution after Kabul
authorities, with the governor's intervention, hammered out an
agreement to resolve long standing land disputes between the two
tribes before addressing the more complicated pending murder cases.
Still, the road to final resolution is fraught with obstacles. The
release of convicted criminal Kamal Khan, who leads the Arab faction
along with his brother, Member of Parliament Haji Payenda Khan,
satisfies one of the agreement's conditions. However, the
government is insisting on conducting a land survey to demarcate
government-owned lands - a move both sides oppose for fear they will
lose lands they have claimed illegally. The dispute is still
pending with the National Reconciliation Committee, led by Meshrano
Jirga (upper house) leader Mojeddedi.
¶10. (SBU) Sar-e-pul achieved poppy free status in 2008, entitling it
to $1.5 million in Good Performers Initiatives (GPI) projects.
Among those projects are a provincial meeting hall in Sar-e-pul
center and two schools. During a July visit to the province,
Minister of Counter Narcotics Khodaidad announced that Sar-e-pul has
again been declared poppy-free and will thus receive another $1
million in 2009 GPI projects. The Provincial Development Committee
(PDC) has decided that its 2009 GPI allocation should be used to
asphalt roads in the provincial center. (NOTE: The minister's
announcement was premature, as the U.N. Office of Drug Control has
not yet released its province-by-province assessment of poppy
cultivation. END NOTE) Governor Chayabi harbors no illusions that
the ANP has stamped out all poppy cultivation in his province, and
expects that due to the abundant rains this past spring, farmers
will once again resort to planting poppy next year.
¶11. (SBU) Progress has been made on the DIAG (Disbanding of Illegal
Armed Groups) process. Sancharak, Gosfandi, and Sozma Qala
districts are DIAG-compliant. Balkhab is the next district slated
to undergo DIAG.
Development
-----------
¶12. (SBU) Sar-e-pul is among the least developed provinces in
Afghanistan. According to UNAMA's development assistance
coordination officer in the north, who cites statistics from the
Ministry of Finance, the total planned and committed government and
donor spending per capita in Sari Pul province is around $50
(compared with $600 per capita in Kabul and $400 in Helmand
province). The southern districts of Balkhab and Kohistanat remain
largely inaccessible during the winter months due to poor road
conditions. Chayabi is under pressure from residents to attract
development projects from donors and the central government, but so
far has been unsuccessful. Natural gas and oil deposits are among
the province's natural resources, but they remain unexploited.
Sar-e-pul's 5-year Provincial Development Plan (PDP) is still a
KABUL 00002104 003 OF 003
draft. Only two of 80 projects from its PDP have been completed:
the construction of an office for the provincial attorney and the
rehabilitation of a health clinic. The vast majority of projects on
the draft PDP have not attracted donor funding. Approximately 75
percent of Sweden's development assistance to Afghanistan goes to
support national-level programs. SIDA, the Swedish government's
development agency, is funding a project to gravel 20 kilometers of
road between Sar-e-pul center and Sozma Qala district.
¶13. (SBU) Prior to its termination in June, USAID's Local
Governance-Community Development (LGCD) project focused on four
priority districts: Gosfandi, Sozma Qala, Balkhab, and Sancharak.
Vocational training projects planned in those districts have been
cancelled. USAID is planning to construct a district center in
Sancharak district with the funding mechanism not yet determined.
EIKENBERRY