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Viewing cable 09BERLIN254, MISSION GERMANY'S RESPONSE TO INFO REQUEST IN
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09BERLIN254 | 2009-03-03 16:37 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Berlin |
VZCZCXRO8895
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRL #0254/01 0621637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031637Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3443
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF PRIORITY 0193
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT PRIORITY 7888
RUEHAG/AMCONSUL HAMBURG PRIORITY 0272
RUEHLZ/AMCONSUL LEIPZIG PRIORITY 0193
RUEHMZ/AMCONSUL MUNICH PRIORITY 2004
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BERLIN 000254
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR EEB/OMA (WHITTINGTON), DRL/ILCSR AND EUR/AGS
(SCHROEDER)
LABOR FOR ILAB (BRUMFIELD)
TREASURY FOR ICN (KOHLER), IMB (MURDEN, MONROE, BEASLEY)
AND OASIA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB PREL GM
SUBJECT: MISSION GERMANY'S RESPONSE TO INFO REQUEST IN
ADVANCE OF G-20 MEETINGS
REF: A. STATE 17502
¶B. BERLIN 0236
¶C. BERLIN 0159
BERLIN 00000254 001.4 OF 005
¶1. SUMMARY. (SBU) Due to the deepening financial and economic
crises, Germany is experiencing its worst recession since
World War II. Its export-oriented manufacturing sector,
including the automotive industry, has been hit particularly
hard; new car orders fell 20 percent in the fourth quarter of
¶2008. To mitigate the effects of the recession, the German
government has launched two stimulus packages totaling 81
billion euros. It is also taking steps to encourage firms to
retain workers and to assist the unemployed. The German
government created a 500 billion euro bank rescue fund to aid
banks struggling under the weight of toxic assets. It is
less enthusiastic about bailing out other countries, and
instead supports extending help via international
institutions. At the G-20 Summit in London, Germany will
support tougher regulation, a greater role for the
International Monetary Fund and Financial Stability Forum, a
strong signal against protectionism, and other priorities as
articulated at the February 22 "Mini Summit" in Berlin.
Chancellor Merkel will also promote her idea for a new
Charter for Sustainable Economic Activity. END SUMMARY.
STIMULUS
--------
¶2. (SBU) Since late 2008, Germany has passed two stimulus
bills totaling 81 billion euros over two years, according to
government figures. The two packages amount to 1.4 percent
of GDP annually. The first stimulus plan was approved in
December 2008 and amounts to around 31 billion euros over two
years, of which about 12 billion euros is new spending. It
consists of 15 modest measures focusing on lending to SMEs,
tax breaks for fuel efficient cars, and other CO2 reduction
measures.
¶3. (SBU) The second, more robust stimulus package was
approved in February 2009, and amounts to 50 billion euros
over two years. (NOTE: It is still unclear how much of this
total represents expenditures already in the pipeline.) The
package includes 18 billion euros of investments in
infrastructure, schools, hospitals and broadband technology.
Measures to boost demand for cars -- such as a rebate scheme
that encourages drivers to scrap vehicles older than nine
years in exchange for a 2,500-euro voucher to buy newer, more
efficient models -- total 1.5 billion euros. Other
initiatives include lowering health insurance contributions,
paying half of short-time workers' social security
contributions, more training for unemployed workers, and
raising child support for families on unemployment benefits.
Overall tax relief measures amount to 2.9 billion euros in
2009 and 6.05 billion euros in 2010. A separate 100 billion
euro "Germany Fund" has been created to help firms survive
the credit crunch. Most German economists have welcomed the
second stimulus package, but note its effects are not
expected to show up until the second half of 2009. There are
also concerns that it is too small and too heavily weighted
towards investment rather than consumption.
¶4. (SBU) The stimulus and bank rescue expenditures could lead
to actual new public borrowing of up to 56 billion euros in
¶2009. The Finance Ministry expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to
increase from 65.5 percent to 72.5 percent of GDP by 2012. A
constitutional amendment requiring states and the federal
government to limit borrowing to 0.35 percent of GDP by 2020
is making its way through the legislative process.
Exceptions would be allowed for natural disasters and
recessions.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
----------------
¶5. (SBU) With exposure to risky assets in Iceland, Ireland,
Spain, and the UK, not to mention central and eastern
BERLIN 00000254 002.4 OF 005
European (CEE) banks, the German financial sector is
struggling under the weight of toxic assets. In response,
the German government created a 500 billion euro financial
sector rescue fund (known as "Soffin") in October 2008. The
fund consists of 400 billion euros in public credit
guarantees and 80 billion euros for recapitalization -- the
20 billion euro balance is a budget line item for defaulting
credit guarantees. Thanks to strict conditions for
participation, many banks were initially reluctant to tap
into Soffin.
¶6. (SBU) Since January 2009, more institutions have taken
advantage of the fund. The list includes state banks
("Landesbanken") WestLB, BayernLB, and HSH Nordbank, which
have benefitted from Soffin credit guarantees. The German
states (Laender) have also provided these banks with
recapitalization funds. Another state bank, SaxonLB, steered
clear of Soffin assistance by merging with LBBW (the state
bank of Baden-Wuerttemberg), though the state of Saxony had
to assume losses relating to the merged banks. The first
victim of the current financial crisis, IKB, received a
bailout from the federal government and the government
development bank, KfW, prior to the creation of Soffin.
Commerzbank, Germany's second largest lender, received both
public credit guarantees and recapitalization funds from the
federal government; the government now has a 25 percent stake
in the bank. Its CEO Martin Blessing recently declined to
rule out that additional funds might later be needed.
¶7. (SBU) The highest profile bank bailout in Germany is that
of Hypo Real Estate (HRE), called "Germany's Lehman Brothers"
thanks to its systemic importance to the German covered bond
("Pfandbrief") market. To date, HRE has received over 100
billion euros in public and private capital injections and
guarantees. Following inconclusive negotiations with U.S.
private equity firm JC Flowers, which leads a group of
investors owning almost 25 percent of HRE, Chancellor
Merkel's (Christian Democratic Union ) CDU) cabinet approved
a draft law that would give the federal government the right
to seize private property for the first time since World War
II. The draft law's expropriation clause is designed
specifically for a takeover of HRE, however, and would expire
in June 2009. It could be invoked only as a last resort.
Unless a deal with JC Flowers is reached in the meantime, the
bill could become law by early April.
¶8. (SBU) The government has so far resisted pressures from
within the financial sector to create a single bad bank.
Both Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck (Social Democratic
Party ) SPD) and Chancellor Merkel have rejected such an
approach on grounds of moral hazard and incalculable risks
for the federal budget. The influential Association of
German Savings Banks ("Sparkassen"), whose members have
little or no exposure to troubled assets, also opposes the
creation of a bad bank. Discussions have mainly focused on
allowing individual lenders to set up their own bad banks to
house toxic assets off their balance sheets, without shifting
the burden to taxpayers. Under one proposal, Soffin would
provide guarantees to individual vehicles.
REAL ECONOMY
------------
¶9. (SBU) Germany is experiencing its worst recession since
World War II. Despite GDP growth of 1.3 percent for the year
as a whole, German GDP fell by 2.1 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2008 and is heading downward. The Economics
Ministry projects the economy will shrink by 2.25 percent in
¶2009. Deutsche Bank Research thinks a 5 percent contraction
in GDP is "fairly optimistic." Exports ) which fell by 7.3
percent in the 4th quarter of 2008 ) are the main culprit,
and predicted to decline by 9 percent or more in 2009.
Unemployment will increase to 8.4 percent in 2009, up from
7.8 percent in 2008, according to government estimates.
Meanwhile, the German savings rate increased from 11.4
percent to 11.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008,
BERLIN 00000254 003.4 OF 005
dampening hopes that lower inflation and the stimulus
packages would trigger more consumer spending. A contact at
the Bundesbank told EMIN that the fourth quarter of 2008 and
first quarter of 2009 would be the trough of the recession,
with some modest growth possible by spring 2009. This,
however, seems less likely with time.
¶10. (SBU) Large industrial companies like those in the
automotive, machine tool, steel and metal processing, paper,
engineering, construction, shipbuilding and ceramics
industries are suffering most from the slowdown, according to
the Association of German Industries (BDI -- Germany's
largest business lobby group). Some companies are having
trouble obtaining credit or are able to do so only under less
favorable terms, as banks increase loan guarantee premiums
and demand tougher disclosure requirements. Many also face
liquidity constraints thanks to lower revenues. Small- and
medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many of which are
self-financing, had reported fewer financing troubles, but
are now feeling the squeeze.
¶11. (SBU) As exports slump, the automotive industry, which
employs one in seven workers in Germany, is center stage in
the economic crisis. Total new car orders fell by 20 percent
in the fourth quarter of 2008 to the lowest level since the
late 1980s. Carmakers have cut production and terminated
employment contracts for temporary workers. Both Opel,
threatened by the potential insolvency of its parent General
Motors, and the components supplier Schaeffler, which
over-extended itself in taking over the larger Continental,
say they risk bankruptcy without support from the state.
While some manufacturers are attempting to protect their
supply chains, 10 smaller automotive suppliers together
employing almost 20,000 workers have already filed for
bankruptcy. Measures in the second stimulus package to
encourage new car purchases may provide some short-term
relief. (See section above on stimulus.)
¶12. (SBU) Understanding the importance of trade to German
industry, the German government has come out strongly against
protectionism. Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
remarked, "Free trade and open markets can make a
considerable contribution to overcoming the economic crisis."
Meanwhile, Germans are deeply concerned about "Buy America"
provisions in the U.S. stimulus package and protectionist
noises from major trading partner France.
SOCIAL/LABOR IMPACT
-------------------
¶13. (SBU) Germany's two stimulus packages contain several
measures to address rising unemployment. Most notable is the
extension from 6 to 18 months of a program (known as
"Kurzarbeit") whereby the Federal Employment Agency takes
over a portion of social security payments from companies
should they opt to introduce shorter working hours for
employees instead of laying them off. The stimulus packages
also include qualification and retraining programs, subsidies
for firms to hire or retain temporary workers, and expansion
of regional and local employment agencies. The Federal
Employment Agency, which has run a budget surplus in recent
years due to the previous decline in unemployment, is
providing some funding in addition.
¶14. (SBU) Germany has not experienced the same level of civil
unrest seen in some other European countries. In recent
weeks, three major rallies have taken place in reaction to
plant closures relating to the economic crisis: at Opel
Qimonda, and Schaeffler. Some 15,000 Opel workers from
around Germany took part in a rally on February 26 at the
German headquarters of the struggling company in
Ruesselsheim. They demanded that Opel's parent company
General Motors scrap plans for plant closures in Europe. A
demonstration involving around 3,000 workers at chipmaker
Qimonda and another involving around 8000 workers at car-
part supplier Schaeffler, reflect the importance of both
BERLIN 00000254 004.4 OF 005
companies as the main employer in their respective regions.
DIMENSIONS OF THE CRISIS
------------------------
¶15. (SBU) Not wanting to get stuck with the tab in an
election year, German politicians are reluctant to bail out
weaker European economies both inside and outside the
eurozone. Germany's public finances are among the healthiest
in Europe, and many Germans bristle at the thought of paying
for the alleged sins of undisciplined neighbors. Under terms
of the 1992 treaty leading to the creation of the euro,
individual countries that use the single currency are
prohibited from bailing out others if they default on their
public debt. The intent of this "no bail-out" provision is
to force countries to embrace fiscal discipline.
Nevertheless, Finance Minister Steinbrueck has intimated
Germany would not stand idly by if another eurozone member
ran the risk of defaulting. His remarks reflect economic
reality: 42 percent of German exports are bound for the euro
region (and 64 percent for the 27 nations of the EU). A
Finance Ministry spokesman denied a report in "Der Spiegel,"
however, that the Ministry was considering specific
scenarios, such as issuance of a Eurobond, to assist weak
members. A contact at the Chancellor's office confirmed that
Germany opposed a common eurozone bond.
¶16. (SBU) At the March 1, 2009 EU Summit in Brussels,
Chancellor Merkel articulated an emerging German approach for
eurozone and non-eurozone economies alike: "We help countries
in need and we will do so further, particularly through
international institutions." Just a week earlier at a
gathering in Berlin, Merkel and other EU leaders
participating in the London G-20 Summit had called for a
doubling of the IMF's balance sheet, to $500 billion, in case
the fund receives more emergency requests for aid. Analysts
note that this approach skirts the issue of the "no bail-out"
provision, and may be easier to finesse with the German
public than unilateral assistance. Having multilateral
institutions take the lead also ensures that the institutions
take any political heat for imposing strict fiscal reforms on
countries that accept bailouts. In return for its support,
Germany will certainly want such reforms included in any
multilateral bailout. Following the Brussels March 1 Summit,
Merkel told reporters she hoped to get a commitment from
leaders at the March 19-20, 2009 EU Summit to return to the
principles of the EU Stability Pact.
ROLE OF THE G-20
----------------
¶17. (SBU) At the April 2 G-20 Summit in London, Germany will
support EU positions coordinated at a February 22 "Mini
Summit" in Berlin (REF B). Among the top priorities are:
-- ensuring that "all financial markets, products and
participants are subject to regulation," especially those
that could present a systemic risk;
-- tightening supervision of hedge funds and oversight of
credit rating agencies;
-- obliging private banks to build additional capital buffers
"in good times" to prepare for economic downturns;
-- designing executive compensation to prevent "excessive
risk-taking";
-- strengthening the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) and
International Monetary Fund (IMF);
-- creating an IMF-FSF early warning system to prevent future
financial crises;
-- enlarging the FSF to embrace emerging economies;
-- establishing supervisory colleges to coordinate
cross-border financial institutions;
-- taking action against tax havens and "uncooperative
jurisdictions";
-- sending a strong signal against protectionism by
concluding the Doha Round and ensuring stimulus measures and
financial rescue plans do not distort competition; and
-- committing to fiscal discipline once the crisis has
passed.
BERLIN 00000254 005.4 OF 005
MERKEL'S INITIATIVE FOR THE LONDON SUMMIT
-----------------------------------------
¶18. (SBU) In London, Chancellor Merkel is also expected to
promote her idea of a new Charter for Sustainable Economic
Activity (REF C). Merkel has raised the concept several
times in recent weeks, including at a meeting she hosted on
February 5 with the heads of five international organizations
(IMF, World Bank, WTO, ILO, OECD); the IO chiefs endorsed the
proposal at least on paper. Merkel also pitched the idea at
the EU "Mini Summit" she hosted on February 22, appearing to
get at least tacit support from her guests (REF B). (NOTE:
Merkel seems to have dropped or delayed a parallel proposal
for a "World Economic Council" that would parallel the UN
Security Council.)
POINT OF CONTACT
----------------
¶19. (SBU) Embassy Berlin's designated point of contact on the
financial crisis and G-20 Summit is Econoff John G. Robinson
(email: robinsonjg@state.gov, tel.: 49-30-8305-2266).
Koenig