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Viewing cable 06BRASILIA1630, BRAZIL: ECONOMY HELPING LULA'S REELECTION BID
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BRASILIA1630 | 2006-08-09 19:02 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO6112
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1630/01 2211902
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091902Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6298
INFO RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 5244
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 7686
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2625
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5669
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4182
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5577
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6390
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1925
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3114
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4763
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3378
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3874
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 2017
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDO/USDOC WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001630
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NSC FOR FEARS
TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE, D.DOUGLASS
STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/SHUPKA
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL EFIN EINV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: ECONOMY HELPING LULA'S REELECTION BID
REF: A) Brasilia 1151
B) Brasilia 902
C) Brasilia 790
D) Brasilia 608
E) Sao Paulo 643
This cable is sensitive but unclassified, please protect
accordingly.
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Economic factors are boosting President Lula's
chances of winning reelection in October 2006. Solid expected GDP
growth of about 4% this year combined with higher salaries, lower
unemployment and inflation under control, mean that the economic
"feel-good" factor going into the elections favors Lula. Lula also
has bolstered his position through increases in the minimum wage
(which also feed through to pension benefits for the poorest) and
spending on GOB social programs. These have had their biggest
impacts on the pocketbooks of social strata that identify strongly
with Lula. While the race is by no means over, opposition Social
Democrat (PSDB) candidate Alckmin faces a tough slog to overcome
these advantages. The potential conflict between Lula's increased
spending (refs A and C) and the need for continued fiscal restraint
will remain to be dealt with regardless of who wins. End Summary.
Credit, Employment, Wages and Consumption All Growing
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶2. (SBU) A confluence of economic events, some influenced by the
Lula Administration and others fortuitous, appear to be enhancing
Lula's reelection bid. Among the points of good fortune is the
favorable timing of the economy's business cycle. Having vanquished
stubborn inflationary pressures last year, the Central Bank has
reduced interest rates at each of its monetary policy meetings since
September 2005, bringing the overnight benchmark rate (SELIC) down
from 19.75% to 14.75%, the lowest nominal rate in a decade. With
Central Bank survey data showing inflation expectations for the next
twelve months running at about 4.4% -- combined with a strong
balance of payments position -- there remains room for the Central
Bank to continue reducing rates. This is having a clear effect on
consumer lending. Overall credit over the twelve months through
June 2006 has grown 22.7%, but credit to individuals grew more
quickly, by 29.7%. Within the latter category, personal loans were
up 31.8% and loans for vehicle purchases were up 34.2%. The average
interest rate on such loans is down 5.5 percentage points over the
same time period. The only cloud on the credit horizon is that
default rates on personal loans also are up.
¶3. (U) Employment and wages have proven to be bright spots for Lula.
The Brazilian economy has created over a quarter of a million new
jobs in the first five months of 2006. The average official
unemployment rate in that period was 10.1%, down from 10.6% at
end-2005. Just as crucially, average wages were up 7.7% from May
2005 to May 2006 while total wages paid climbed 8.6% over the same
period. This combination of higher wages, lower interest rates and
credit growth has helped boost consumer spending. Retail sales in
the first five months of 2006 were up 6% over the same period of
¶2005. Growth in the sales of furniture and household
appliances/electronics was particularly strong. Taken together, the
above factors have contributed strongly to the improved expectations
for GDP growth this year, which should border on 4%, up from a
lackadaisical performance of 2.3% in 2005.
Increased Minimum Wage, Pensions and Cash Transfers
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶4. (SBU) While some of the positive economic trends have been
fortuitous, Lula is helping himself with some financial engineering
as well. As noted in ref A, Lula has increased the minimum wage by
BRASILIA 00001630 002 OF 002
13% in real terms since 2004. This also increased the minimum
social security pension, which is constitutionally linked to the
minimum wage. The social security system, which is also used as a
wealth transfer mechanism, effectively has increased the real
incomes of poor pensioners. Separately, Lula has been working to
expand the reach of his flagship conditional cash transfer program,
Bolsa Familia. Raul Velloso, a fiscal expert with ties to the
opposition PSDB party, estimated to Econoff that through these three
prongs (minimum wage, minimum pension and Bolsa Familia) Lula had
been able to increase the real incomes of about 21 million families,
or about 60 million people. This socio-economic group, he added,
identifies strongly with Lula and his compelling "rags-to-President"
Horatio Alger story.
¶5. (SBU) Ref E discusses in detail the increased spending power of
the lower-middle/working class and their increased role in the
Brazilian economy. In a related point, some analysts argue that the
growth in personal loans and credit, often extended by retailers for
purchases such as appliances, has benefited working class borrowers
in particular. With increased access to credit these working class
and lower-income consumers have begun to spend more on items such as
electronics. While the lines between the upper middle class and
lower middle class/working class are devilish to define, many
political analysts and poll-watchers have pointed to these voters as
the key election battleground which Alckmin must win in order to be
elected.
May Emerging Market Financial Turbulence Barely a Blip
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶6. (SBU) The Lula Administration's pursuit of responsible
macroeconomic policies helped Brazil dodge a bullet in May and early
June 2006, when emerging markets were hit by the most serious bout
of financial market turbulence since mid-2003. Aided by successive
strong current account surpluses and strong capital inflows, the GoB
has used the time since 2003 to pay down external debt (ref B),
reduce to zero its net exposure to foreign-exchange linked domestic
debt, increase international reserves and further reinforce the
credibility of its institutional framework. Brazil's solid economic
fundamentals meant that the financial market turbulence left the
real economy largely unruffled and kept the economy from becoming a
negative campaign issue for Lula.
¶7. (SBU) Comment: In contrast to the constant attrition Lula has
faced with corruption scandal after corruption scandal wearing down
his image, Lula has helped himself on the economic front. His
embrace of responsible macroeconomic policies has given him his
biggest advantage, a sound economy heading into the elections. His
spending on social programs and minimum wage increases have helped
poorer Brazilians feel a bit more affluent. The potential conflict
between Lula's increased spending (refs A and C) and the need for
continued fiscal restraint will remain to be dealt with regardless
of who wins.
SOBEL