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Viewing cable 09PRETORIA478, SOUTH AFRICAN MINING EXECUTIVES DISCUSS GLOBAL AND
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09PRETORIA478 | 2009-03-12 09:44 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Pretoria |
VZCZCXRO7314
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #0478/01 0710944
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 120944Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7665
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 0221
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0814
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1711
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0962
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0772
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1546
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0237
RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000478
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE PLEASE PASS USAID
STATE PLEASE PASS USGS
STATE FOR AF/S, EEB/ESC, EEB/CBA
DOE FOR SPERL, PERSON
DOC FOR ITA/DIEMOND
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EMIN ENRG EINV ETRD EPET KHIV ZI SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN MINING EXECUTIVES DISCUSS GLOBAL AND
DOMESTIC CHALLENGES
REF: 08 PRETORIA 2732
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A group of South African mining executives
expressed concern about the effects of the global commodity
downturn on the mining sector and associated social
transformation in South Africa. They highlighted a number of
challenges of doing mining business in South Africa, many
directly related to the heavy hand of the state on the sector
and key services like power, transport, telecom, and health.
They saw signs of an upturn in Chinese demand for iron ore as
a glimmer of hope. They cited the mining sector as a leader
for black economic empowerment and combating HIV/AIDS, where
workforce prevalence rates have flattened. A platinum
executive with interests in Zimbabwe expressed pessimism
about the unity government there. End Summary.
¶2. (U) Charge hosted four South African mining executives
for a lunch at her residence on March 5 for a tour d'horizon
on the troubled mining sector. Attendees were:
Charge Helen La Lime
Economic Counselor Perry Ball
Commercial Counselor Craig Allen
Minerals/Energy Officer David Young (note-taker)
Chamber of Mines Economist Roger Baxter
Consultant Con Fauconnier (former Kumba Resources CEO)
Aquarius Platinum CEO Stuart Murray
Anglo American Manager: Engineering Keith Prakke
--------------------
Importance of Mining
--------------------
¶3. (SBU) Chamber of Mines Economist Roger Baxter provided
his analysis on the importance of mining to the South African
economy. According to Baxter, mining:
-- Contributes directly 6-8 percent of GDP.
-- Contributes indirectly/induced 17-18 percent of GDP.
-- Represents an even greater percentage of GDP in Northwest,
Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and Free State Provinces.
-- Provides over 500,000 direct jobs and another 500,000
indirect jobs.
-- Supports extended families of 10 million people.
-- Supports the domestic economy. Of R310 billion ($30
billion) in mining revenues, R302 billion are captured
locally through procurement, wages, capital expenditures,
taxes, dividends, and bank interest. Only a portion of
dividends depart the country to pay back foreign investors.
-- Expands initial investment with a multiplier effect of 2.5
times.
-------------------------------------
Global Markets - How Bad Will It Get?
-------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) The consensus of the group was that the global
commodity slowdown was generating dire effects on the South
African economy. Baxter said 30,000 mining jobs were at
risk, but also pointed out that the industry had created
60,000 over the last two years. He noted that retrenchment
in South Africa was not easy, requiring three months of
consultation and justification with a variety of government
and union entities. Fauconnier said 17 of 20 ferrochrome
furnaces at Merafe Resources had been closed because of
global over-stocking, but he said the company was still
trying to keep its skilled labor force. The miners perceived
Qtrying to keep its skilled labor force. The miners perceived
a welcome up-tick in iron demand, notably from China, an
early indicator of a potential turn-around in the global
steel market. Former Kumba Resources (iron) CEO Con
Fauconnier said iron ore sales were increasing from South
PRETORIA 00000478 002 OF 004
Africa's major mine, Sishen in the Northern Cape (Reftel).
The guests agreed that China's growth would not likely sink
below 8 percent, because of sustained domestic demand from
rapid urbanization and government spending on infrastructure.
They believed that the global commodity market "will turn --
and when it turns, it will turn fast," because of the
depletion of stocks and new projects. Fauconnier said China
will purchase 80 percent of sea-borne traded iron by 2025.
-------------------------
Intervention by the State
-------------------------
¶5. (SBU) The mining guests were critical of the heavy hand
of the state imposed on the domestic economy, particularly by
the monopoly or dominant position of state power utility
Eskom, state rail company Transnet Freight, and state
controlled telecommunications company Telkom. Baxter said
the associated regulatory, infrastructure, power, and telecom
constraints blocked South Africa from sustaining its growth
potential of 4 percent. Baxter noted that there had been
some 3,000 changes to mining legislation and 4,000 changes to
mining regulation since the ANC government took power. He
asserted that a new Zuma-led ANC government would not bring
dramatic economic policy changes, but that there is a wide
perception that the government has failed in service delivery
to its citizens. Baxter said privatization would have a
pejorative meaning to the ANC struggle veterans, but the
granting of private concessions would be a practical way to
unblock constraints on growth.
----------------
Power Challenges
----------------
¶6. (SBU) Power supply uncertainty has been a worry in the
mining sector in South Africa and the region since the South
African power crisis temporarily shut down mines in January
¶2008. State power utility Eskom has gained a respite from
the global slowdown and resulting furnace closures, but South
Africa's reserve margin remains only eight percent (versus an
acceptable target of 15-20 percent). Baxter said there were
duplicative and redundant crisis task teams meeting last
year, but he saw the government finally asserting greater
clarity this year with the National Emergency Response team,
representing diverse stakeholders. Baxter and Fauconnier
said financing for Eskom's R350 billion ($33 billion)
five-year capital expenditure program for new supply was
daunting. The government has pledged direct equity support
of R60 billion ($6 billion) and guarantees of R170 billion
($17 billion), leaving a significant gap. The group was
frustrated that the government has been unable to create a
transparent and attractive regulatory environment for gaining
private investment in power. Eskom's dominant position and
artificially low pricing were persistent obstacles.
¶7. (SBU) Fauconnier was disappointed about the government's
recent postponement of the Eskom nuclear power contract, but
he saw eventual establishment of new nuclear power plants as
Qhe saw eventual establishment of new nuclear power plants as
a greater share in the energy mix as inevitable. He said
South Africa's next two mega-power stations (Medupi in
Limpopo Province and Kusile in Mpumalanga Province - each
almost 5,000 MW) were coal stations under construction. The
third would likely also be coal, but he predicted the fourth
or fifth would have to be nuclear, alternating with another
mega-coal facility. Fauconnier said Medupi's cost had
ballooned from R55 billion to over R100 billion from
escalating input costs. The mining executives were surprised
at the Minister of Energy's recent announcement that the
electricity distribution system was in crisis and required
R27 billion ($2.5 billion) in deferred capital investment to
keep it in working order.
PRETORIA 00000478 003 OF 004
--------------------
Transport Challenges
--------------------
¶8. (SBU) State railroad company Transnet Freight was a
general target of frustration of the mining executives,
because of the rail firm's uncertain and inefficient service
delivery. Baxter said Transnet's cost for shipping steel
from the port of Durban to Johannesburg was greater than the
cost of shipping steel from Shanghai to Durban. He said 80
percent of containers from Durban to Johannesburg were now
shipped twelve hours by road, versus three weeks and the
uncertainty of potential loss by rail. Fauconnier said Kumba
had made an offer for a private concession to fund expansion
of the iron ore line from Sishen to Saldanha port, but
Transnet refused. A comparable private offer for augmenting
coal transport to Richards Bay port has also been refused by
Transnet. Fauconnier said Transnet and the government
appeared philosophically opposed to such a private
undertaking and they were loath to lose or share the Sishen
and Richards Bay rail lines, as they are the most lucrative
of the six rail lines that lead to the major ports from the
mineral-rich interior.
------------------
Telecom Challenges
------------------
¶9. (SBU) The mining interlocutors voiced similar frustration
with Telkom, the state-controlled, dominant
telecommunications company. South African consumers face
high prices, even in mobile communication, where there is
growing competition. Murray noted that South African mobile
service is expensive, but the service and coverage is
excellent, compared to even developed countries like the U.S.
and the U.K.
---------------------------------------------
Transformation Challenges - BEE and Education
---------------------------------------------
¶10. (SBU) Mining managers accept Black Economic Empowerment
(BEE) as a part of necessary social transformation to redress
past injustices and see BEE as a reasonable cost of doing
business in South Africa. Under the mining charter, BEE
equity must total 14 percent of total equity this year and 26
percent by 2014. Baxter said mining has provided leadership
and the largest industry role in implementing BEE deals. He
said mining BEE deals total R150 billion ($14.5 billion) or
35 percent of total BEE deals. Fauconnier said he worked
with one of the first big BEE deals wherein BEE firm Exxaro
was created at a 3 percent cost to share-holders. He noted
the problem is that only a few black South Africans have
benefited from BEE provisions. Fauconnier said the current
downturn was negatively impacting BEE deals, but mining
companies were committed to making sure the deals remained
viable. The mining executives recognized that there was a
risk that the government could increase the BEE requirements,
but they said there was a practical limit for sustaining
business. Fauconnier expressed concern that a future ANC
government could raise the 26 percent requirement. He hoped
Qgovernment could raise the 26 percent requirement. He hoped
that BEE could reach a self-sustaining basis, where all
equity holders could practice normal business practices and
share trading. Prakke said an equally vexing challenge for
South Africa is education, where performance was abysmal,
notwithstanding education claiming a relatively high 6-7
percent of GDP. He said it was difficult for black
university students to study engineering if they had failed
or not been offered high school math and science courses.
One solution would be to extend university studies by one
year to provide remedial instruction in these areas.
PRETORIA 00000478 004 OF 004
-------------------
HIV/AIDS Challenges
-------------------
¶11. (SBU) The group was optimistic that the government role
in health would continue to improve under new Minister of
Health Barbara Hogan. They pointed out that the mining
sector has played a leadership role in addressing HIV/AIDS in
its workforce since 1986. Fauconnier said overall HIV
prevalence in the workforce was 22-25 percent. This is much
lower than the commonly held belief that the rate is 35
percent. The good news is that the rate is now flat, they
said, rather than increasing. Baxter said there would be
some variance between sectors, with gold higher because of
its traditionally greater reliance on migrant foreign workers
from neighboring SADC countries. They said mining companies
were gaining greater compliance on voluntary consultation
testing programs. Mining companies are also providing
comprehensive treatment to families and communities, not just
workers. Baxter said the economics of "doing something,
rather than doing nothing" on HIV/AIDS were compelling for
mining companies. This is why a lot of efforts are being
taken to both treat HIV/AIDS and to prevent new infections.
--------------------------------------
Doubts about Zimbabwe's New Government
--------------------------------------
¶12. (SBU) Aquarius Platinum Stuart Murray told Energy
Officer after the lunch that he lacked any confidence in the
unity government in Zimbabwe. His company has significant
platinum interests there. He believed that until President
Mugabe was really gone, the donor countries should maintain a
hard position. Murray thought it was not the right time to
respond to Prime Minister Tsvangarai's appeal for funds. He
said ironically the dollarization of the economy was hurting
his company. Whereas there was no longer any forced
conversion of some revenues into Zimbabwe dollars, the
company now had to pay import duties in U.S. dollars, rather
than Zimbabwe dollars. Murray feared that there would be a
resulting margin squeeze on platinum companies operating in
Zimbabwe.
¶13. (SBU) Comment: The participants discussed the fact that
many South African executives are forced to spend much of
their time on power, transport, transformation, and health,
rather than on traditional challenges such as mining,
processing, and marketing minerals and finished products,
which would be the primary focus of executives in Australia
and Canada, for example. He then noted that there seemed to
be a relatively high rate of turnover for South African
mining executives, perhaps because of burn-out. Fauconnier
agreed and said because of South Africa's complex set of
circumstances, South African managers gain responsibility and
complex skills at a young age and tend to be successful in
Australia and other countries. He said that six years was a
good target for the useful term of a South African mining CEO
(regretting that he hung on for eight years). The mining
Q(regretting that he hung on for eight years). The mining
executives were cautiously optimistic about the global market
and South Africa's relative position in the global industry,
but feared the possibility of greater government intervention
on the part of future governments.
LA LIME