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### Viewing cable 07MANAGUA1183, MADRIZ - ORTEGA PROMISES REMAIN UNFULFILLED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MANAGUA1183 | 2007-05-08 16:12 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0003
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #1183/01 1281612
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 081612Z MAY 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0112
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001183

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN SCHIFFER

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
    TAGS: KDEM ECON PGOV PINR NU
    SUBJECT: MADRIZ - ORTEGA PROMISES REMAIN UNFULFILLED

    REF: A. 06 MANAGUA 2423 AND PREVIOUS
         ¶B. MANAGUA 01069

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4(B,D)

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Citing higher gas prices, no new jobs, and
    political favoritism, the citizens of Somoto and Totogalpa,
    Madriz spoke to the Ambassador of growing dissatisfaction
    with President Ortega's administration.  While local
    opposition leaders are talking, they have not unified or
    capitalized on the population's discontent.  Aggravating the
    situation is the Sandinista National Liberation Front's
    (FSLN) wholesale replacement of local technocrats with
    untested party supporters in local government offices and its
    party bias in selecting families for Ortega's new Zero Hunger
    program.  Although the region receives sizable remittances
    and generous financial support from sister cities, the
    underlying economy is weak.  Since January, hundreds of area
    residents have left the country in search of work.  Although
    local business and political leaders believe a free trade
    zone is essential to development, they have taken virtually
    no action over the past several years to make it so.  Despite
    spending US$2.5 million on projects in the region, U.S.
    visibility is scant.  Leaders encouraged the U.S. to stay
    engaged in Nicaragua using an "approach of respect" centered
    on "positive messages and positive signs."  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (U) On April 29 and 30, Ambassador visited the northern
    department of Madriz to participate in a variety of meetings
    and events in the departmental capital, Somoto, and the town
    of Totogalpa.  In Totogalpa, the Ambassador attended three
    USAID-funded activities, including the inauguration of a
    tomato and vegetable packing plant, the opening ceremony of
    the first annual tomato festival, and the ribbon-cutting
    ceremony of a new discount pharmacy.  In addition, during the
    two-day visit, the Ambassador met with the mayors of Somoto
    and Totogalpa, local representatives from the Nicaraguan
    Liberal Alliance (ALN) and Sandinista Renovation Movement
    (MRS) political parties, the civil rights advocacy NGO Ethics
    and Transparency (EyT), a Totogalpan indigenous group and a
    group of women's ceramic cooperatives.  The Ambassador also
    met with the presidents of the local Chamber of Commerce and
    Coffee Growers Association and the priest of the Somoto
    Catholic church, and gave interviews with two local radio
    stations - "Radio Frontera" and "Que Buena."

    Free and Fair Elections, but...
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶3.  (SBU) Somoto EyT director Uriel Antonio Garcia reported
    that the November 5 elections were free and fair thanks to
    the presence of observers from the US Embassy, Carter Center,
    EU, and EyT in the department's voting centers.  He commented
    that the police did an excellent job with security, allowing
    the people to vote in a safe and calm atmosphere.  Further,
    Garcia assured the Ambassador that all votes were counted,
    there were no irregularities during the counting/closing
    process, and that the "fiscales" (party observers) were
    vigilant.  However, as was consistently reported throughout
    the country during the campaign process, Garcia confirmed
    that voter card issuance (cedula) had been a problem during
    the campaign, citing that nearly 1 in 4 applicants did not
    receive their ID card before November 5 (reftel A).  (NOTE:
    On November 5, the FSLN received 31,773 votes to the PLC's
    25,831 and the ALN's 9,503 votes. The FSLN won in 8 of
    Madriz' 9 municipalities, only losing to the PLC in
    Totogalpa.  END NOTE).

    Opposition Forces Should Unify
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (C) The Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC) mayor of
    Totogalpa along with ALN, MRS, EyT, and business community
    representatives unanimously agreed that the opposition
    parties must set aside their differences and form a single
    national opposition party for the 2008 municipal elections.
    They all acknowledged that a strong, unified opposition is
    the only way to stave off disaster in next year's elections.
    Even with unity, they admitted, gaining the upper hand in
    local elections will be a daunting task given the FSLN's
    formidable discipline and funding.  Catholic priest Fruto
    Valle added that, regardless of unification, the Liberal
    opposition will have a tough time winning hearts and minds in
    the region after 16 years of neglect by the three previous
    Liberal administrations.  He commented that throughout this
    time, while the Liberals did nothing, the Sandinistas --
    working through their well-organized network of NGOs and
    using international funding -- helped the population by
    building roads, clinics, stadiums, etc., giving the
    Sandinistas a strong advantage in the region.  (COMMENT:
    Until recently, Valle was known as a staunch PLC/Aleman
    proponent.  Thus, it is interesting that he openly admits the
    failures of previous administrations -- including Aleman's --
    to address the region's woes. END COMMENT).

    First 100 Days - Ortega "Fails to Deliver"
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5.  (SBU) Asked about their satisfaction with the Ortega
    administration thus far, there was near universal agreement
    that President Ortega has not fulfilled his campaign promises
    of cheaper prices and full employment.  Of particular concern
    are the rising prices of gasoline and diesel.  Quoting
    unemployment figures as high as 80 percent, local leaders
    characterized the overall economic situation as "desperate"
    and "very, very bad" in rural areas.  MRS representative
    William Ortega opined that "thousands" of people in the
    Somoto area had left the country since the start of the year
    looking for work in El Salvador, Costa Rica, Spain, and the
    U.S.

    ¶6.  (SBU) Business leaders, the mayor of Totogalpa, and ALN,
    MRS, and EyT representatives all decried alleged
    discrimination in public sector employment.  They insisted
    that the Ortega administration was "cleaning house," removing
    any non-Sandinistas from public service jobs -- regardless of
    experience and expertise -- and replacing them with party
    loyalists.  Business leaders were especially critical of this
    practice, stating that new officials were "not qualified" and
    that the process of changeover was highly "disorganized,"
    creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and confusion in their
    communities.  Further, they agreed that the new government
    agency representatives were "non-responsive."  As a result,
    the overall business climate is uncertain.

    Sister City Relations Key to Survival
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶7.  (SBU) Remittances and bi-lateral unofficial assistance
    received from sister cities in France, the U.S., and
    especially Spain, mask the local economy's underlying
    troubles, according to the participants.  All were quick to
    acknowledge that generous financial support from Somoto's
    Spanish sister city had paid for schools, churches, and
    parks, among other things.  In addition, the mayor of Somoto
    detailed an "exchange" program through which over 1,000 women
    from the greater Somoto area had gone to work as domestic
    employees in the Spanish sister city, providing a much-needed
    source of income through remittances.  (NOTE:  When queried
    about this exchange program, other participants scoffed,
    indicating that it was not a formal program, and its success
    questionable.  Many women had taken out loans against
    property and houses to finance their trips only to return --
    now with an outstanding loan -- after failing to find jobs.
    The Ambassador raised concerns about trafficking in persons
    given the lack of oversight or control over the exchange, but
    participants did not believe it to be a problem.  END NOTE.)

    ¶8.  (U) According to the mayor of Somoto and others, the
    assistance of sister cities skewed the region's income so
    much that Madriz' economic classification was upgraded in the
    last census, reducing assistance from the Nicaraguan
    government.  As a result, insisted the mayor, the region's
    suffering is worsening.

    Program "Zero Hunger" Seen as Political Tool
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶9.  (C) As one of Nicaragua's poorest regions, Madriz was
    selected for the Ortega administration's new "Zero Hunger"
    program, which gives up to $2,000 worth of direct assistance
    and vouchers per family to facilitate self-sufficiency.
    Approximately 300 families in Somoto and 100 in Totogalpa
    were selected for the program.  While there was general
    agreement that the program could cause jealousy and rivalry
    within the communities, Totogalpa's PLC mayor, Carmen
    Mercedes Hurtado, as well as ALN and MRS representatives,
    claimed the selection process is politicized.  Although
    participants are nominated by the mayors, explained Hurtado,
    the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAGFOR), as the
    implementation partner, makes the final decisions.  She and
    others claim that Sandinista supporters have "found it easier
    to qualify" for final selection.  Hurtado also claimed that
    NGOs involved in the implementation are Sandinista.  Further,
    Hurtado questioned the program's potential effectiveness in
    Madriz given that participants must own at least one hectare
    of land to qualify, excluding the landless -- the poorest of
    the poor -- from participating.

    Universal Interest in Free Trade Zone
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10.  (SBU) Asked what could be done to improve the economic
    situation in Madriz, there was unilateral support for the
    establishment of a free trade zone (FTZ) to absorb the excess
    labor supply and jump-start the economy.  All believed that
    Somoto's proximity to the Honduran border, good road system,
    strong agricultural base, and ample supply of labor make the
    region a prime candidate for FTZ investment.  Despite these
    apparent advantages, in the last six years, only one attempt
    has been made to contact FTZ authorities in Managua and no
    one has ever approached ProNicaragua, a Managua-based
    investment promotion NGO.  The Ambassador urged action on
    both fronts, remarking that without action there cannot be
    results.  The Ambassador also encouraged them to focus on
    products that play to the region's natural strengths -- such
    as food-based production -- instead of garment factories.

    Opposition to 7-year Term Proposal
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11.  (C) Given recent discussions by the Ortega
    administration and PLC to extend mayoral terms to seven years
    (reftel B) to coincide with the 2011 presidential elections,
    Ambassador sought input from the mayors, business leaders,
    EyT, and the ALN and MRS representatives.  There was strong
    opposition to the proposal from everyone but the Sandinista
    mayor of Somoto, Marcio Ariel Rivas Nunez, who answered that
    the "transition of governments is hard" and that "he would
    have to think about it."  Despite commenting that the ALN and
    PLC "would be dead" if elections were held in 2008, and that
    extending the period might give opposition forces a "better
    chance," Hurtado held firm that dividing national and
    municipal elections "is better for democracy."  Garcia
    soundly rejected the idea as an "error" from a legal
    standpoint, opining that such a move "might confuse voters."

    U.S. Visibility Poor - Lacks "Personal Touch"
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶12.  (C) Despite US$2.5 million in USAID projects in the
    departments of Madriz and Nuevo Segovia, there is little
    awareness or recognition of U.S. efforts in the region.  In
    fact, the department's 12 Peace Corps volunteers are the most
    visible symbols of U.S. assistance.  While Hurtado laid the
    blame on the department's Sandinista majority, claiming that
    they won't acknowledge any work done by non-Sandinistas,
    others provided more reasoned explanations.  Nunez reminded
    the Ambassador that U.S. visibility is impeded by the strong
    presence of Somoto's Spanish sister city.  Other participants
    cited Madricenos' peculiar tendency to associate projects
    with individuals and if no Americans are directly involved in
    implementation, the people will not associate a project with
    the United States.

    Advise to US - Stay Positive, Stay Engaged
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶13.  (C) Participants urged the U.S. to stay engaged and to
    "keep working even if you don't want to" to maintain positive
    relations, in spite of Ortega's anti-U.S. rhetoric.  Business
    leaders asked the U.S. to maintain a "long-term perspective
    on the relationship" while EyT's Garcia emphasized that the
    U.S. should take an "approach of respect" centered on
    "positive messages and positive signs."  He stated that the
    Nicaraguan people have heard enough negative rhetoric, which
    only feeds uncertainty and fear.

    Comment
    - - - -

    ¶14.  (C) Notwithstanding alleged disillusionment among the
    populations of Somoto and Totogalpa -- and perhaps the other
    municipalities of Madriz -- due to higher fuel prices, no new
    jobs, and a Sandinista-bias in the Zero Hunger program,
    Liberals readily admitted that they face a serious challenge
    in the 2008 municipal elections.  There was general agreement
    on the need to unify the opposition parties, but no clear
    ideas on how to achieve it.  Further, there was no evidence
    of homegrown unified initiatives to take advantage of the
    FSLN's particular weakness in Madriz, despite the
    opportunity.  Lack of funds -- and perhaps lack of guidance
    from party leaders in Managua -- is certainly an important
    factor.  While these local branches maintain contact with
    Managua, without funding it is all they can do to simply keep
    their doors open.  While national unification is symbolically
    important, opposition party leaders should prioritize and
    support unification efforts at the municipal level where
    political party leaders have shown a willingness to work
    together to select the most viable opposition candidate and
    where specific pre-election strategies can be developed to
    target localized FSLN weaknesses.
    TRIVELLI

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