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### Viewing cable 07LONDON3539, SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY PAULSON'S VISIT TO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07LONDON3539 | 2007-09-14 16:08 | 2011-06-05 03:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy London

Appears in these articles:
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/wikileaks/Wikleaks-US-anger-at-Gordon.6779840.jp
http://news.scotsman.com/iraq/Wikileaks-Gordon-Brown-39wanted-to.6779847.jp
http://news.scotsman.com/iraq/Wikileaks-Iraqi-premier-feared-British.6779849.jp
http://news.scotsman.com/iraq/Wikileaks-Tories-asked-to-oppose.6779848.jp
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Leader-Historical-insight.6779771.jp

`

    VZCZCXYZ0020
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHLO #3539/01 2571608
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 141608Z SEP 07
    FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
    TO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5377
    INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 003539

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FOR SECRETARY PAULSON FROM AMBASSADOR TUTTLE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2017
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL UK
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY PAULSON'S VISIT TO
    LONDON SEPTEMBER 17-18

    Classified By: Ambassador Robert H. Tuttle for reasons 1.4 b & d

    ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: Your visit is much
    welcomed. You come to London at a critical moment. The UK
    is adjusting to the change in leadership from Tony Blair to
    Gordon Brown, who has displayed calm confidence in addressing
    key domestic challenges in the short period he has been Prime
    Minister. The bilateral relationship is also adjusting to
    the change in leadership. Political commentators have
    speculated about Brown's need to appease his domestic
    audience with a cooler public stance towards the U.S.
    Administration. While his Scottish-demeanor is certainly not
    as openly warm as Tony Blair's, Brown and his team have been
    careful to assure us publicly and privately that our
    relationship is paramount. Brown is driven by a sense of
    purpose, rather than power. His impatience to press forward
    his own agenda in the absence of a clear timetable on his
    political future, combined with a more reserved temperament,
    will likely lead to the occasional tussle between our
    governments.

    ¶2. (C/NF) The timing of your visit is also crucial given the
    turmoil in the financial markets, which is front page news in
    the UK. Both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor will be
    keen to discuss how to stabilize the markets and avoid
    liquidity problems, as well as let you know the results of
    the EU Finance Ministers meeting in Portugal this week-end
    and how they have handled the first request, from a major
    mortgage lender, of this crisis for liquidity support in the
    UK. The war in Afghanistan and in Iraq will be on Brown's
    mind with General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker due in
    London just after your visit and Brown scheduled to present
    his plans for Iraq to Parliament in October. The British are
    also worried about Iran and how to ratchet up the pressure on
    the regime. You will find common ground with Brown and
    Darling on the importance of promoting free trade and open
    investment markets. Brown continues to place great emphasis
    on alleviating poverty in the developing world and has
    endorsed climate change as a key priority for his government.

    ¶3. (C/NF) Your visit gives you the opportunity to gauge
    personally Brown's and Darling's commitment to the solid
    U.S.-UK relationship, and to convey to them and the British
    public our appreciation and support. Your joint press
    appearance with the Chancellor should go a long way to
    calming nervousness about the financial markets; the bankers
    are nervous and looking for leadership. This is an
    opportunity to show strength on Iran and Afghanistan and to
    move our agenda on Iran forward, to reiterate the importance
    of the Doha Development Agenda, to show a joint commitment to
    an open investment regime, and to continue to take on the
    tough issues that our nations have tackled so well together
    over the years. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION

    PM Brown's strong start
    -----------------------

    ¶4. (C/NF) Prime Minister Brown got off to a solid start upon
    succeeding Tony Blair in June. The British public welcomed
    his serious, workmanlike approach after the perceived
    slickness of his predecessor. They also liked his balancing
    act with President Bush after the perceived "subservient"
    Blair relationship with Washington: working together to
    advance shared interests, while maintaining some personal
    distance. Brown was seen to handle early
    challenges with calm competence: the attempted car bombings
    in London and Glasgow failed and a quick investigation
    produced results; one outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease was
    quickly contained (although another reared its head on
    September 12 with a confirmed case near the earlier
    outbreak); and the worst flooding in sixty years drew an
    energetic response from the Government.

    ¶5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, the opposition Conservatives were in
    disarray over leader David Cameron's efforts to drag the
    party to the center. At one point, Brown's lead in the
    opinion polls (the "Brown Bounce") triggered speculation
    about a snap election this fall. That lead has now shrunk,
    and with it the prospect - never likely - of a fall election.
    Now, the trade unions affiliated with the ruling Labour
    Party are threatening an "autumn of discontent" over the PM's
    insistence on holding public-sector pay raises below the rate
    of inflation and his resistance to demands for a referendum
    on the EU Treaty. Standing up to the unions could actually
    help Brown with the wider public.

    Impact on London of turmoil in financial markets

    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶6. (C/NF) The financial sector is nervous about the
    turbulence in the sector triggered by the subprime mortgage
    market problems in the United States. The issue in the UK is
    not that suspect U.S. lending practices to subprime borrowers
    have been adopted by UK lenders, but rather that the U.S.
    subprime problem has made UK banks cautious about interbank
    lending, which is drying up. Darling made his first public
    statement on this issue in a September 13 interview in which
    he said that primary responsibility for handling the credit
    crisis lay with the banks which need to examine carefully
    their lending policy. He said he would discuss with EU
    finance ministers over the weekend and with you on Monday
    proposals to help maintain global financial stability and
    avoid future liquidity crisis. Mervyn King, Governor of the
    Bank of England, signaled in a September 12 letter in advance
    of his September 20 appearance at a Parliamentary hearing,
    that the Bank would not bail out banks and financial
    institutions. Hector Sants of the Financial Services
    Authority (FSA) said privately that its "regulatory toolbox"
    is not lacking with regard to regulating the UK mortgage
    market and securitized mortgage lending. The issue may be
    one of better assessing and valuing the risks inherent in
    such lending.

    ¶7. (C/NF) In a move that surprised both the market and the
    public, on September 14, the Bank of England, in consultation
    with the FSA and Her Majesty's Treasury, agreed to provide a
    "liquidity support facility" to Northern Rock, a large
    mortgage company in the UK. This decision is in keeping with
    what King said in his September 12 letter was appropriate for
    central banks. As a lender of last resort, the Bank provided
    this assistance against "good collateral at a penalty rate to
    an individual bank facing temporary liquidity problems, but
    that is otherwise regarded as solvent." Darling, and others,
    hit the media with the message that there is no need to
    panic, that Northern Rock is solvent but suffering from a
    short term squeeze, and that the Bank of England has an
    appropriate tool to address the situation, which it has done.
    Nonetheless, there is still a growing degree of nervousness,
    and London's over-heated property market may finally cool off
    a bit.

    Iraq
    ----

    ¶8. (C/NF) General Peter Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker
    will stop over in London on their way back to Iraq on
    September 18 for meetings with Prime Minister Brown, Foreign
    Secretary David Miliband, and Defense Secretary Des Browne.

    SIPDIS
    The fact that this is their only stop before returning to
    Baghdad underscores the importance both we and the British
    attach to our cooperation on Iraq.

    ¶9. (C/NF) The UK response to the Petraeus/Crocker testimony
    has been positive, with Brown himself scheduled to make a
    statement in response on September 14. HMG continues to
    stress that it is in constant contact with the USG on all
    Iraq-related issues, and that the UK will not leave before
    the job is done. Nonetheless, the British drawdown of troops
    in the south and withdrawal to an airbase outside of Basra,
    at the same time as U.S. troops surge elsewhere in Iraq, has
    given rise to speculation that tensions are rising between
    Washington and London. An August op-ed piece in the "New
    York Times" co-authored by Browne and Miliband was designed
    to staunch these questions, but HMG contacts tell us they
    recognize it has not succeeded. Despite these efforts,
    although no decision has been taken, we assess that --
    ultimately -- the Brown government will pull its remaining
    forces in Iraq out by spring, even at the expense of a strain
    in relations with the United States. An August op-ed piece
    in the New York Times co-authored by Defence Secretary Des
    Browne and Foreign Secretary David Miliband was designed to
    staunch these questions, but HMG contacts tell us they
    recognize it has not succeeded. A spokesman for PM Brown was
    forced to address the issue once again at a September 11
    press conference, insisting that the UK and U.S. are in
    continuous and open communication on all issues, and that the
    U.S. had been fully apprised of the withdrawal of UK forces
    from Basra Palace to the airbase outside the city beforehand.

    ¶10. (C/NF) Media and public speculation continues to focus on
    why such close allies have taken such different approaches,
    with some speculating that PM Brown has struck an
    unidentified "secret deal" with President Bush to allow most
    UK troops to withdraw, while keeping some minimum in the
    south of the country. There is also a widely held assumption
    that Gordon Brown will reduce the UK presence in Basra to an
    absolute minimum by the end of 2007. Domestically, such a
    move has no downsides for Brown: the Labour Party, never
    entirely comfortable in supporting Blair on Iraq, will be
    relieved; the military leadership, which has tended recently
    to take public its grievances on being stretched
    too far,
    will be placated; and the electorate, deeply unhappy over
    Iraq, will see Brown as the leader who undid Blair's mistake.
    Timing is important: a troop rotation is set to occur in
    November. A British departure from Basra by Christmas would
    be an asset in a spring general election. While we do not
    believe a decision has been made, we assess, that even with
    the USG urging that UK troops stay at current levels, Brown
    may pull them out by no later than Spring 2008. An important
    part of the justification will so that the UK can deploy more
    troops in Afghanistan.

    British military in Afghanistan
    -------------------------------

    ¶11. (C/NF) The Brown Government is thinking carefully and at
    the highest levels about the current situation in Afghanistan
    and the UK's role in future engagement. The UK deployment in
    Afghanistan still has public and parliamentary support, but
    the longer the deployment goes on the more skeptical both HMG
    officials and the public become about prospects for success.
    Foreign Secretary David Miliband plans to deliver a copy of a
    UK interagency review paper to Secretary Rice on the margins
    of UNGA in New York later this month with a view towards
    eliciting a U.S. response on the way forward. The UK paper
    will reportedly conclude that we do not yet know how to
    create a "functioning Afghanistan at all levels" and that
    coalition forces need to better understand how to build
    functioning government at every level -- national, regional,
    local and tribal. It will also discuss ISAF support for
    Afghan counter-narcotics efforts. Counter-narcotics is one
    area where we have some disagreement with HMG: the British
    are totally opposed to aerial spraying, but lately have
    indicated more willingness to consider ground spraying on the
    opium crop, "under the right conditions." The British mantra
    is that counter-narcotics and all other efforts in
    Afghanistan must be integrated within a comprehensive
    counter-insurgency strategy.

    Iran - The British are worried
    ------------------------------

    ¶12. (C/NF) Iran worries the British. They believe pressure
    on Iran is having an important affect, but in order to impact
    Iranian behavior we need to ratchet it up through the UN
    (where the UK is pessimistic about immediate prospects for a
    third UNSCR), other multilateral fora (the EU, with France as
    a strong ally on this issue now), and in more public
    pronouncements on possible sanctions. The UK emphasizes the
    need for unity among the "P5 plus 1" ("E3 plus 3" in its
    parlance), and is encouraged by France's willingness to take
    a tough line. In addition to briefing Brown and Darling on
    current U.S. thinking on Iran and a next UNSCR, you may want
    to raise with Darling the usefulness of financial supervision
    and regulatory tools in pressuring Iranian banks operating in
    the UK. Your Assistant Secretary Pat O'Brien was here last
    week to encourage the UK to step up efforts on Iran and on
    terrorist financing, and your FinCEN Director James Freis
    will be here at the same time of your visit.

    Close ally on terrorism finance
    -------------------------------

    ¶13. (C/NF) Our governments cooperate at all levels across the
    inter-agency spectrum on combating terrorist financing (TF.)
    There is little daylight between our philosophies and our
    approach to using financial tools to stop terrorism. What
    differences do exist are mainly a result of a lack of
    resources the UK has traditionally made available in the TF
    fight and having to meet a high UK evidentiary threshold.
    Brown has increased the TF budget and re-organized his
    government's efforts.

    Promotion of the City
    ---------------------

    ¶14. (C/NF) The UK continues to believe hedge funds provide
    valuable risk management options and do not need regulation
    beyond that to which all UK-based funds are subject. HM
    Treasury will decide this month whether to issue a
    shariah-compliant sukuk (bond), which Brown hopes will
    positively influence Middle Eastern investors and the 1.3
    million UK Muslim community. While an increasing number of

    officials claim London has surpassed New York as a financial
    center, many UK government stakeholders and UK-based
    financial companies view the chatter over Wall Street vs. The
    City as a fabrication of the financial media. UK officials
    contend that both New York and London must prosper in order
    to maintain their leadership positions in the face of
    emerging financial markets in China and India, but they also
    energetically support the City's growth.

    Brown and Darling Support DDA
    -----------------------------

    ¶15. (C/NF) Brown and Darling continue to be a fervent
    supporter of the Doha round and open investment in the UK.
    Darling, as former Secretary of State for Trade and Industry,
    will have insight into internal EU dynamics on the Doha
    Development Agenda WTO negotiations which you may wish to
    explore with him and Brown. Brown and Darling may ask about
    the perceived rise in protectionism in the United States and
    Europe and how we can work together to counter public
    concerns about globalization. Brown has argued that the UK
    and the EU need to be open and competitive to meet the
    challenges of globalization.

    Development - critical issue for Brown
    --------------------------------------

    ¶16. (C/NF) Although only Prime Minister a short time, Brown
    has already made good on his desire to push development and
    climate change. After he met with the President in Camp
    David in July, he immediately gave a speech at the UN
    declaring his intention to push harder to achieve the
    Millennium Development Goals and released a Declaration to
    that effect, signed by President Bush and other leaders. He
    also launched an international health initiative on September
    5, which we are still analyzing and are not ready to endorse.

    Climate change - Brown government priority
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶17. (C/NF) Along with development, climate change is a key
    item on Brown's "To Do" list. Climate change is a
    front-line, threshold in the UK, with strong support for
    action coming from across the political and social spectrum.
    All parties want to be seen as fully "green" on climate
    change. There is consensus for binding targets and a
    cap-and-trade system on carbon emissions. Many environmental
    financial services and trading programs reside in London.
    Environment Minister Phil Woolas will be Brown's personal
    representative to the President's September 27-28 Major
    Economies conference on climate change and energy security.
    However, the British are miffed that they were not invited as
    a sovereign nation, but rather as a part of the European
    Union's delegation, and have requested an individual
    invitation.

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling: "A safe pair of hands"
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶18. (C/NF) Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, a
    fellow Scotsman and long-standing Brown ally, has been in the
    Cabinet since Labour took power in 1997 (a distinction he
    shares with the PM and Justice Secretary Jack Straw), as
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury, then Social Security
    Secretary, Transport Secretary, and (concurrently) Scotland

    SIPDIS
    Secretary, then Trade and Industry Secretary. Darling is

    SIPDIS
    seen as highly capable, experienced and reliable, and very
    discreet; he was once voted Britain's most boring politician.
    The relationship between Brown and his Chancellor is
    expected to be much smoother than the one Brown held with PM
    Blair.

    Visit London's Classified Website:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm
    TUTTLE

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