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### Viewing cable 09BELGRADE480, SERBIA/BOSNIA: INZKO VISIT UNDERSCORES OBSTACLES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BELGRADE480 | 2009-06-04 16:34 | 2011-05-11 19:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Belgrade
Appears in these articles: http://balkans.blog.lemonde.fr http://www.bivol.bg/wldodik.html

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    VZCZCXRO0739
    RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHBW #0480/01 1551634
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 041634Z JUN 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1340
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000480

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV BK SR
    SUBJECT: SERBIA/BOSNIA: INZKO VISIT UNDERSCORES OBSTACLES
    IN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP

    REF: BELGRADE 34

    Classified By: Deborah Mennuti, Political Chief; reasons 1.4 (b, d).

    ¶1.   (U) This cable was cleared with Embassy Sarajevo.

    Summary
    -------

    ¶2.     (C) High Representative Inzko,s visit to Belgrade in
    early May refocused current challenges in bilateral relations
    between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.  In meetings with top
    Serbian officials, Inzko elicited Serbian support of Dayton
    and Bosnia,s territorial integrity, as well as a promise by
    Serbia to strengthen Bosnia,s central institutions.
    Meanwhile, disputes involving national boundaries and
    property succession remain unresolved and are unlikely to see
    progress absent leadership from Tadic himself.  In our view,
    a Tadic visit to Sarajevo affirming support for Bosnia,s
    state-level institutions would demonstrate that Tadic,s
    rhetoric in support of Bosnia and Herzegovina is more than
    mere words.  End Summary.

    Inzko Seeks Belgrade's Cooperation
    --------------------------------------

    ¶3.    (SBU) High Representative Valentin Inzko paid his first
    official visit to Belgrade on May 5 and received assurances
    from top Serbian officials that Belgrade would continue to
    support Bosnia's territorial integrity and constitutional
    reform only with the consensus of all three ethnic groups.
    President Tadic issued a statement noting Serbia's role as
    guarantor of the Dayton Agreement while reaffirming
    Belgrade's "principled and unambiguous" commitment to
    Bosnia's territorial integrity.  Prime Minister Mirko
    Cvetkovic echoed these sentiments, adding that Serbia
    respected completely Bosnia's sovereignty and the principle
    that every major agreement required consensus among the three
    ethnic groups.  Cvetkovic noted that Bosnia- Herzegovina and
    Serbia enjoyed "very good cooperation" in the realms of
    energy, tourism, and railroad infrastructure.  Deputy Prime
    Minister Bozidar Djelic and Inzko discussed European
    integration and regional cooperation issues, agreeing to
    consider joint projects in the energy, agriculture, and
    travel infrastructure sectors, according to a statement from
    Djelic's office.

    ¶4.    (C) Foreign Ministry officials voiced satisfaction with
    the meetings and expressed Serbia's willingness to work
    constructively with the High Representative.  Nikola Rukic,
    an official in the MFA's European Integration office who
    participated in the Inzko meetings, told us that Inzko
    approached Zagreb and Belgrade to seek their support in
    encouraging BiH leaders to strengthen Bosnia's state-level
    institutions, calm nationalist rhetoric from Bosnia's
    leaders, and make greater efforts to achieve reconciliation
    among the three ethnic groups.  While downplaying the
    significance of Bosnian Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad
    Dodik's nationalist rhetoric and threats of secession ("He is
    only a politician, not a nationalist"), Rukic said that
    Belgrade supported strengthening Bosnia's central
    institutions and that Inzko could rely on Serbia's
    unconditional support in this regard because only strong
    central institutions would enable Bosnia and Herzegovina to
    achieve EU membership.  Rukic added that Inzko praised
    Serbia's support of Dayton and encouraged Belgrade to offer
    more assistance to central institutions.

    Little Progress on Bilateral Sticking Points
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶5.    (C) Despite the positive rhetoric and Serbian promises,
    Inzko's visit did not result in any concrete changes in
    policy nor dislodge longstanding obstacles to developing
    state-to-state relations between Belgrade and Sarajevo.
    Bosnian Charge Amira Arifovic-Harms told us on May 11 that
    Inzko's visit was a charm offensive directed toward skeptical
    Serbs; it would not result in substantive pressure from OHR
    on Belgrade.  (Comment:  While Inzko clearly sought to
    highlight in interviews personal ties to Belgrade stemming
    from his diplomatic service here in the 1980s, it is unclear
    whether the "charm offensive" was successful.  One MFA
    contact, noting that Inzko is Slovenian by origin, told us
    that whatever pro-Serbian sentiments Inzko may have would be
    obviated by the demands of his office. End Comment.)
    Arifovic-Harms said that negotiations on longstanding border
    disputes (reftel) remain stalled since December and proposed

    BELGRADE 00000480  002 OF 002

    talks on property succession issues this spring were
    repeatedly postponed.  She voiced disappointment that Inzko's
    visit to Belgrade was not coordinated with the Bosnian
    Embassy, in contrast to the practices of previous High Reps.

    ¶6.    (C) MFA Neighboring Countries Directorate official
    Vladimir Odavic downplayed the significance of stalled border
    and property talks and emphatically said that Belgrade was
    striving to bolster relations with the Bosniak-Croat
    Federation.  Odavic claimed that border disputes were ongoing
    because Serbia sought to negotiate a comprehensive solution
    to problems involving Serbian-built, Yugoslav-era
    hydroelectric dams on the border, while the Bosnians insisted
    on drawing administrative lines before further negotiation.
    Odavic ascribed the delayed property succession talks to the
    Easter holidays and said that the Serbian side had yet to
    receive a comprehensive list of Bosnian property claims.
    Regarding state-level relations, Odavic repeated the familiar
    refrain that Belgrade actively sought additional
    state-to-state contacts but was rebuffed by Silajdzic's
    associates.  Odavic said that one solution to overcoming
    strained relations was via economic issues, and he proudly
    pointed to the March 4 "Economic Forum of Serbia and BiH" in
    Belgrade as an example of how both sides could work together
    on economic issues.  The economic forum --organized under the
    auspices of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and the Bosnian
    Embassy *- focused on increasing economic cooperation
    between Serbia and the Federation, and included state
    secretary-level representation from the Serbian and Bosnian
    Ministries of Foreign Affairs.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶7.    (C) High Representative Inzko's visit to Belgrade
    yielded few surprises and again demonstrated that top Serbian
    officials believe that voicing support for Bosnia's
    territorial integrity excuses the de facto emphasis on
    entity-level relations and occasional unconstructive rhetoric
    partial to Dodik.  While the alleged agreement to Inzko's
    proposal that Serbia support strengthening Bosnia's central
    institutions is encouraging, we are skeptical there is much
    intention in following through with more than just words.
    Tadic met on May 25 with Bosnian Serb tri Presidency member
    Nebojsa Radmanovic in Belgrade and Bosnian-Croat
    tri-Presidency member Zeljko Komsic will visit Novi Sad in
    mid June.  The Serbian government's reactions to these visits
    by top Bosnia officials will provide the first clue as to
    whether the visits by Inzko and Vice President Biden will
    have prompted President Tadic to assume a more constructive
    position toward Bosnia and Herzegovina in which the substance
    of bilateral relations matches his rhetoric.  A good start
    would be for Tadic to increase his interaction with the
    tri-presidency members and pay a visit to Sarajevo to meet
    with state-level politicians of all three ethnic groups,
    thereby expressing Serbia's support for Bosnia's state-level
    institutions.  It would also be helpful if Tadic publicly
    endorsed any U.S.-backed constitutional reform initiative in
    BiH, and at the same time, signaled clearly and publicly to
    Dodik and the RS public that while Belgrade was prepared to
    support the RS's territorial integrity (as Biden did in
    Sarajevo), it would not back attempts by the RS to avoid or
    block the constitutional compromises necessary to create a
    functional and efficient Bosnian state.  Tadic is notoriously
    hesitant to tackle hard topics that he thinks will backfire
    by increasing reaction by the Radical-led Greater Serbia
    elements.  He needs to also be confident that any move he
    makes in this direction will be noted by the United States
    and Europe and that his statesman-like image will be enhanced
    by playing a constructive role in the region.  End Comment.
    MUNTER

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