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HOW DO YOU KNOW IT'S TRUE ?

Discovering the Difference Between Science & Superstition

HY RUCHLIS

Prometheus Books
Buffalo, New York


How Do You Know It's True?: Discovering the Difference Between Science
and Superstition. Copyright c 1991 by Hyman Ruchlis. All rights reserved.
No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without
written permission, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical
articles and reviews. Inquiries should be addressed to Prometheus Books,
700 E. Amherst Street, Buffalo, New York 14215, 716-837-2475.

95 94 93 92 91 5 4 3 2 1

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Ruchlis, Hyman.
How do you know it's true?: discovering the difference between science
and superstition / by Hy Ruchlis.
p. cm.
Summary: Discusses the difference between science and superstition, the
basic nature of science as a way of thinking, and the ways in which amazing
events can be explained rationally.
ISBN 0-87975~57-8
1. Science--Methodology--Juvenile literature. 2. Superstition--Juvenile
literature. [1. Science--Methodology. 2. Superstition.] I. Title.
Q175.2.R83 1991
507.2--dc20                                                                       90-28449
                                                                                  CIP
                                                                                  AC

Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper.


Contents

PART ONE: SUPERSTITION AND
FAIRY-TALE THINKING

     1. Fiction or Fact?                                         11
     2. The Nature of Superstition                               15
     3. An Experiment with a Superstition                        25
     4. Astrology: Science or Superstition?                      35

PART TWO: SCIENCE AS A WAY OF THINKING
    5. How New Facts Are Discovered                              47
    6. Science and Freedom of Thought                            59
    7. Developing a Theory: Probability                          73
    8. Unusual Events: Luck and Chance                           83
    9. Science Gives Us Real Knowledge                           93
    10. Science: Past, Present, and Future                       101

5



Acknowledgments

My deepest appreciation goes to my wife, Elsie, who not only
undertook many additional family responsibilities that made
it possible for me to write this book, but also suggested a number
of improvements in the manuscript.
Ruth Handel, who read the manuscript, offered several im-
portant ideas that were incorporated into the book.
Last, but not least, granddaughter Kathy Ember, age 13,
found a number of explanations in the book that seemed con-
fusing to her and were therefore improved in the final work.
Finally, to my other granddaughters, Julie Ember and
Annalisa Ruchlis, and to all other children who were the main
motivation for me to write this book--to cope with the con-
fusions of modern life they need to be able to recognize "fairy-
tale thinking" and superstition whenever they encounter it.



PART ONE

SUPERSTITION AND FAIRY-TALE THINKING



Fiction or Fact?

Do you remember the story of Cinderella? Her fairy godmother
waved a magic wand and changed a pumpkin into a coach,
some mice into horses, and a rat into a man to drive the coach.
Then, with another wave of her wand, she instantly dressed
Cinderella in beautiful clothes and glass slippers.
As a child, when this story was read to you, did you wonder
how a tiny mouse could be instantly changed into a large horse?
Or a small rat changed into a big man?
You knew that this story was a "fairy tale," pure fiction
that described imaginary people doing magical things that could
not have happened. What you knew about the real world contra-
dicted the events described in the fairy tale.
Children enjoy fairy tales because imagination is stimulated
by the game of "Let's Pretend." We encourage the telling and
reading of fairy tales because this helps children learn to enjoy
books and reading. But as young folk grow older they quickly
learn that many of the events said to happen in fairy tales
cannot happen in real life.
Not all "fairy tales" are in books. We are all fond of the
delightful story of Santa Claus bringing gifts to every child
in the world on Christmas eve. Adults know we are playing
a game of "Let's Pretend," but many young children think that
Santa Claus really exists. They have not yet developed the
reasoning power to realize the contradictions with reality.
How could just one Santa bring toys for perhaps a billion
children everywhere on earth in just one night? How does he
get all those toys into one small sleigh? How do those reindeer

11


12 Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

manage to fly? How does a chubby Santa ever manage to get
those bulky toys down the narrow chimneys described in story
books, and somehow scramble out again?
As children grow older and gain experience, they begin to
understand that events described in the story of Santa Claus
contradict what we know about the real world. They come to
realize that he is a "symbol" for the joyous season of gift-giving
and good will, but does not actually exist.
Any adult who could not tell the difference between fairy-
tale fiction and real-world facts would have a very serious
problem. If someone insisted he was Napoleon, or that he was
made of green cheese, we would immediately send him off to
see a psychiatrist. He would need immediate help.
We must be able to know the difference between what is
true, and what is false. But how do we know that what we
think is a fact is really so?

FACTS MUST BE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS

Some simple facts are easily observed and checked by others.
For example, if someone tells you that a rubber ball costs one
dollar at a local store, it is easy to check that fact by going
there and seeing it on a price tag, or hearing the salesperson
say, "It costs a dollar."
Or, if someone tells you that a certain person lives at 65
Cloudburst Street and the phone number is 123-4567, it is not
hard to check these facts. You could look in the telephone book,
or hear the person talk on the telephone when you call. You
might check the address by actually going there to see the person.
Anyone can verify such facts by means of observations--
by using our senses: sight, hearing, touch, smell, and taste.
Modern business could not exist without such facts as prices,
catalog numbers, and descriptions for products; names, ad-
dresses, and telephone numbers of customers and suppliers; bills,
checks, profits, and money in the bank. There are many billions
of such facts, necessary to maintain our modern society.


Fiction or Fact? 13

SOME FACTS ARE HARD TO DISCOVER

However, many kinds of facts, or what we think are facts, are
difficult to discover. For example, someone may get a severe
pain that he thinks is in his stomach and take some medicine
for indigestion. But perhaps what he thinks is a "fact" about
the pain "in his stomach" may not be so at all. If the cause
of the pain is a heart ailment, or a diseased gall bladder, taking
the wrong medicine, or waiting too long to see a doctor, could
be fatal.
The pain itself is an observation because it is something
that we know exists. We actually feel it. But mistakes are easily
made when we try to figure out what the observation means.
We may reason incorrectly and "jump to a conclusion" that
is wrong. For example, someone may feel a pain in the leg
and think there is something wrong where the pain is located.
The pain may actually be caused by pressure on a nerve in
the lower back. In that case, a treatment for the leg is useless,
and perhaps harmful.
For such health problems it is best to see doctors who are
experts in discovering the causes of illnesses by means of obser-
vations. They can then usually prescribe remedies likely to work.
Of course, doctors sometimes make mistakes in judgment.
Perhaps the facts are difficult to get or knowledge about some
diseases is limited. But what counts is that the facts doctors
do know usually enable them to prevent or cure many diseases
that once killed many people. As a result, today the average
life span is much longer than a century ago.
It has taken centuries for thousands of scientists to find
the causes of a great many different diseases. It usually takes
many years of research to discover just a single important fact.
Then it may take more years of work for others to verify it,
to be sure it is true and not a mistake in observations or
reasoning.
For example, the earliest microscopes in the 1600s revealed
the existence of microscopic plants and animals. It took another
two centuries before it was proved that many deadly diseases
are caused by different kinds of these microorganisms. Doctors
did not even know that they had to wash their hands before
treating different patients in hospitals, just to remove deadly
germs. They actually caused many deaths just by transmitting
germs when touching people with infected hands.


14 Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

Discovery of new facts in science is not simple or easy.
It takes careful observation and lots of hard work.
Wrong ideas tend to continue for many years, often for
centuries. But gradually, over the years, we have learned how
to tell the difference between fact and fiction. We have been
steadily improving the way we uncover new facts, not known
before.
We call that method of discovery "science." Science is much
more than the facts that make up today's knowledge about the
nature of the world in which we live. It is really a new and
different way of thinking,--a way of knowing how to find new
facts and prove them true. This scientific way of thinking has
transformed our world and made it very different from what
it was just a few centuries ago.
This book is about the methods of science, the way it differs
from superstitious "fairy-tale" ways of thinking, how it has
changed our world, and how we might use it to solve many
of the difficult problems of the world we live in today.
But first, let's go back three centuries, to the year 1692,
to see how the wrong, superstitious way of thinking of olden
times was misused to execute innocent people in our country,
wrongly accused of what was considered to be the "crime" of
"witchcraft."


2

The Nature of Superstition

In 1692 a mysterious sickness began to spread in the town of
Salem, Massachusetts. Eight girls had frequent "convulsive
fits" in which they thrashed about wildly while moaning, cry-
ing, and babbling. During those fits they had hallucinations
in which they imagined strange things happening.
People in the community were frightened. If eight girls could
get such a scary disease, then anyone else might get it, too.
Parents began to worry about the safety of their own children.
Physicians were called in, but in those days they knew very
little about illnesses. They found this one especially mystifying.
However, one physician wondered if the convulsive fits might
have been caused by "witchcraft."
WITCHCRAFt! This superstitious idea struck terror into the
hearts of people. Word spread rapidly that there was a witch
among them. Perhaps a gang of witches, possessed by the devil,
were casting evil spells on the girls. Driven by ignorant fear,
the townspeople started a "witchhunt" to find the witches in
their midst.
During their babbling the girls would sometimes utter the
names of people they knew. The townspeople grasped these
flimsy bits of "evidence" as clues to who might be witches. They
put anyone named by the girls into jail. Soon there were 150
innocent people awaiting trial for the imagined crime of
witchcraft, punishable by death!
They were neighbors of the girls, farmers, storekeepers,
housewives, servants, a former minister, and even parents of
friends. The people of Salem had been driven wild with fear

15


16 Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

by a superstition about witchcraft that was totally false.
The Governor of Massachusetts appointed some judges to
decide which of the people in jail were the witches, and which
were not.
How did the judges decide? They used a "test of touch."
The accused person had to touch one of the girls while she
was having a fit. If the fit stopped immediately this was "proof'
that the accused person controlled it, was therefore a witch,
and had to be sentenced to death. However, if the fit did not
stop then the accused person was considered innocent. (Fig. 2.1)

Figure 2.1. In 1692, during the Salem witch trials, accused people were judged guilty
of being witches and executed if a girl's convulsive fit stopped when touched by the
person on trial. (Drawing by Albert Sarney)

The judges tried to be merciful. They spared the lives of
convicted "witches" if they confessed to the crime of witchcraft.
As you might expect, many of the innocent people who were
convicted, "confessed" to save their lives. Nineteen of them,
however, refused to lie and paid for their honesty and bravery
with death by hanging.
This terrible tragedy occurred only because people believed
in the false superstition of witchcraft. Witches were imagined
to be making people sick by using magical ceremonies, perhaps


The Nature of Superstition 17

by uttering special words to cast evil spells on people.
Today, physicians know far more about the causes of disease
than in 1692. Several possible explanations have been proposed
for the strange illness that afflicted the eight girls.
They might have had a disease known today as "convulsive
ergotism." It is caused by a poisonous substance in a micro-
scopic plant, a "fungus" known as "ergot." This fungus grows
on crops such as rye, used for making bread. Eating bread con-
taining ergot might have caused the girls to have those fits
and hallucinations.
Another possible explanation is that the events in Salem
were caused by "mass hysteria." There are examples today of
large groups of children, and sometimes adults, who become
so anxious and fearful about some reported illness that they
imagine they have it, too. The eight girls might have seen or
heard about others having fits and their vivid imaginations
might have caused them to behave the same way.
It is possible that some, or all the girls, were playing a
monstrous trick on grownups by pretending to have fits and
hallucinations. Perhaps they enjoyed having the power of life
and death over all those innocent grownups.

SUPERSTITIONS TODAY

A superstition is a belief that is held despite evidence that it
is not true.
Superstitions are based on the belief that some people,
plants, animals, planets, stars, words, numbers, or special things
have magical powers. They are supposed to be able to do aston-
ishing things that no one truly observes happening anywhere,
although many people imagine they are happening. These su-
perstitions contradict what we know about the real world.
Superstitions are examples of fairy-tale thinking. But, unlike
fairy tales, which people know are imaginative fiction, super-
stitions are wrongly believed to be true.
Scientific thinking is very different. We seek facts and expla-
nations of events based on careful observations and logical
reasoning that must be checked by repeated trials to try to elim-
inate the errors that often occur. Then the facts have to be
verified by other careful observers before being accepted as true.
This is not an easy or quick process and mistakes are often


18 Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

made. Very often it takes years of work by many people to
reach the point where facts and conclusions are considered to
be true. Because mistakes or exaggerations are easy to make
we must be ready to correct, or even change our ideas about
facts as new information becomes available.
In sharp contrast, superstitious belief reflects a lazy way
of thinking. Superstitious people just assume the "facts" and
often believe whatever they imagine to be true. The way this
happens will be described in chapter 4 when the superstition
of astrology is analyzed in detail.
Today, polls show that, despite all our scientific knowledge,
one person in seven in the United States believes in superstitions
like the one about witchcraft. One in four people believe in the
superstition of astrology and more than 1,000 newspapers en-
courage this superstition by publishing "horoscopes" which
supposedly predict for people of different birth dates what they
should or should not expect to happen to them.
Some people have formed groups that perform special witch-
craft ceremonies. There have been reports of animals sacrificed
during such events to ward off bad luck, or to try to accomplish
some other desired goal.
In one tragic case a woman whose child was ill was told
by a person, who claimed to be able to heal sickness by super-
stition, that a demon had possessed the child, causing the dis-
ease. The remedy proposed was to starve the demon by depriving
the child of food. The mother actually did so, and the child
starved to death!
This poor woman was punished with a jail sentence of four
years. The real cause of her child's death was ignorance, which
led her to believe in an ancient superstition about demons caus-
ing illness.
Superstitious belief in witchcraft is more widespread in coun-
tries with many uneducated people and few modern physicians.
People then rely on traditional "witch doctors" or "medicine men"
who try to cure diseases with ceremonies and magic that are
supposed to drive out imaginary demons thought to cause disease.
Witch doctors collect things like skins of snakes and frogs,
skulls or bones of animals, unusual rocks, carvings of animals,
and other objects, all supposed to have magical powers to cure
people. They may use such materials as magical objects in their
ceremonies, waving them around the sick person as they utter
magic words and perhaps dance or make special motions. (F/g 2.2)


The Nature of Superstition 19

Figure 2.2. This witch doctor performs a ceremony to drive out the demon, imagined
to be causing an illness. Since most sick people get better, ceremony or not, the witch
doctor takes credit for his "successes," even though undeserved. (American Museum of
Natural History)

Scientists are careful not to reject everything witch doctors
do as worthless in treating illness and disease. Witch doctors
often make medicines from parts of different plants or animals.
Some of these medicines have been found to be useful in curing
diseases.
For example, quinine, the main medicine used by modern


20  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

physicians for treating malaria, was originally discovered by
Indian medicine men in South America. They made it from the
bark of cinchona trees. Also, an important tranquilizer to make
people calmer was originally used by witch doctors in Asia. Other
medicines used today were discovered in a similar way.
Of course, performing magical ceremonies and uttering spe-
cial words do not stop germs from invading the body, nor do
they cure vitamin deficiencies. However, ceremonies are often
better than doing nothing because they give sick people the
feeling that something is being done to help them. They feel
more optimistic, and this mental attitude has been found to
be helpful to the body in fighting off some diseases.
Since people recover from most diseases by themselves,
imagined "cures" by ceremonies and magic words seem to
"prove" that the superstitions are effective. This is also true
for some medicines sold today in pharmacies. When people get
better, with or without the medicine, they may mistakenly think
that the medicine did it.
The best way to find out if a medicine really works is to
test it with a controlled experiment. A number of sick people
are given the medicine being tested, while others are given false
medicines called placebos (pronounced pla-SEE-bose), which are
harmless substitutes. Careful records of medical examinations
are kept to see how these people recover from the illness. The
medicine is considered to work if many more patients getting
the medicine recover, or do so faster.
In such experiments it is best if the doctors or nurses actually
giving the medical examinations do not know which patients
are getting the real medicines and which are getting the pla-
cebos. People doing experiments often want the experiment to
"succeed." If they know which patients are getting the real
medicine, they may be biased and slant their observations to
favor the outcome they want.
The people getting the placebos serve as the control group
that gives us a way to compare what happens with and without
the medicine.
Such experiments are very expensive because many people
are involved, they often take a long time, and costly measuring
instruments may have to be used. But it is the best way to
be sure that any medicine or other treatment actually works.
The lesson we have learned from witch doctors is that every
belief we think is a superstition should not be automatically


The Nature of Superstition 21

rejected. We should examine each superstition carefully to see
if there is some truth to it. The evidence for or against it should
determine whether we consider it true or false.

OTHER SUPERSTITIONS

People today sometimes do or say things because of customs
based on ancient superstitions. For example, a friend may say
something like, "I hope it doesn't rain Saturday and spoil our
picnic." Then she interrupts the conversation, raps the wooden
table with her knuckles, and says, "Knock on wood." Why did
she do that?
Your friend does not realize it, but she is knocking on wood
because people in olden times believed there were elves with
magical powers trapped in wooden objects in our homes. They
were imagined to have originally lived in trees in the woods.
But when trees were chopped down and made into furniture,
the elves were supposed to still be in the wood, right in our
homes. Ancient people were afraid that the elves were angry
for being deprived of their beautiful homes in the woods, and
were just waiting for a chance to get even.
Today no one ever thinks about the elves, or explains how
they manage to understand English, or why we never see them.
But when your friend knocks on wood, it is as if she is really
assuming, like people long ago, that some invisible elf trapped
in the furniture has heard her remark about rain spoiling her
picnic.
"Aha," he is imagined to think. "Now I have a way to punish
those mean people. I'll use my magical powers to make it rain
on Saturday and spoil their picnic."
The procedure of saying, "Knock on wood," and then ac-
tually knocking on something made of wood is supposed to
be a magical way of telling the elf, "Don't spoil our picnic or
we'll punish you. Remember, we could make things difficult
for you by chopping up this table and burning it in the fireplace."
This superstitious custom makes as much sense as expect-
ing a fairy godmother to wave a wand and instantly create
a limousine and chauffeur to drive us to a big party.
Today we know that saying words cannot stop any illness
from developing. But in olden times people believed in the su-
perstiition that saying the right words had the magical ability


22  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

to make things happen. A witch was supposed to be able to cast
an evil spell by uttering special curses. Special words, like "abra-
cadabra," were imagined to have magical effects such as opening
locked doors without keys or releasing genies from bottles.

BLACK CATS AND OTHER SUPERSTITIONS

Some people still believe that a black cat crossing one's path
brings "bad luck." To avoid this "bad luck" a superstitious per-
son might turn around and go back, or go another way.
Superstitious people may do strange things to cancel "bad
luck." An old-time remedy for a black cat's "bad luck" was to
rotate one's hat around on the head, take nine steps and then
rotate the hat back to where it was before. No one ever explains
how they know the superstition is true, or how the black color
of a cat's fur could magically cause someone to perhaps fall
and break a leg, or why the rotated hat remedy is supposed
to work.
In fact, people think they "know" that the superstition is
true because they were told about it by others. When we try
to track down who started this superstition we find that it goes
all the way back into ancient times, without a shred of reliable
evidence that it is true.
In England the superstition is just the opposite, with black
cats imagined to produce "good luck," not bad! Some theaters
actually keep black cats to bring them "good luck" in perfor-
mances and newspaper reviews. How could a black cat be "bad
luck" in the United States and bring "good luck" when sent
across the ocean?
The superstition may have arisen from the fact that in our
society the color black is associated with funerals and death.
Halloween drawings of witches usually show them with black
hats, and often black cats are nearby. Perhaps the black cat
is supposed to be a witch in disguise, or some kind of spy or
helper for the witch. It may therefore have been imagined to
possess the same magical abilty to cause harm.
A similar superstition is that breaking a mirror brings "bad
luck." This belief is based on the mysterious way people see
their images in a mirror. In olden times people did not know
about the way light is reflected by a mirror to produce an image.
The mirror image seemed to appear as if by magic. When we


The Nature o[ Superstition 2g


Figure 2.3. The superstition about a broken mirror causing "bad luck" probably arose
because of the mysterious way an image appears behind a mirror, even though nothing
is actually observed to be there. Perhaps people thought a person's spirit could not return
once the mirror was broken. (Drawing by Albert Sarney)

look for it behind the mirror nothing is there. (Fig. 2.3)
Perhaps the mirror was imagined to mysteriously capture
a person's "spirit," which could then not return to the owner
of the image when the mirror was broken. The grumpy spirit
would thereafter try to get even by magically causing misfor-
tunes to happen to the person who broke it.
There is a superstition that stepping on an ant brings rain.
Considering how many people everywhere on earth step on ants
all day long, it ought to be raining all the time. This conclusion
clearly contradicts our experience.
"Voodoo," a superstitious form of magic, is practiced in some


24  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

countries today, even in the United States. One of its beliefs
is that a person can be harmed at a distance by using magical
procedures. One method is to stick pins into a doll representing
the person to be harmed. This is supposed to cause that person
to get sick or die.
Unfortunately, this can really harm intended victims who
believe in the superstition and are told that evil spells have
been put on them. Just worrying about an evil spell could make
an intended victim sick, and perhaps even die.
Belief in superstitions is widespread in countries where
people are poorly educated and is greatly weakened when people
become educated. But even in nations where everybody goes
to school some people are still superstitious. Superstitions take
a very long time to die out.
Scientific thinking has gradually developed mainly during
the past five centuries. It has transformed the world by sweeping
away most of the superstitions that prevented people from
learning about the world in which we live.
Could we use scientific thinking to test a superstition to
find out if there is any truth to it? The next chapter describes
how that could be done.


3

An Experiment with a Superstition

You step into the elevator of a tall building. The door closes
and up you go. You watch the lights that show the number
of each floor that is passed: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
ú.. and what's this? There's 12, then 14, but no 13!
Did somebody make a mistake in counting? No. The
thirteenth floor is really there, right above the twelfth floor.
It's just that the real thirteenth floor of about half the tall
buildings in our country have been deliberately marked 14 in-
stead of 13.
Why has that been done?
There is an ancient superstition that the number 13 brings
"bad luck." Some people actually believe in that superstition
today and therefore do not rent, buy, or visit apartments or
offices on floors marked 13. (Figure 3.1)
Some people who are not superstitious may also not rent
or buy on the thirteenth floor because they know that super-
stitious people would not work or visit thereú
A strange thing about this superstition is that every build-
ing with more than twelve floors has a thirteenth floor. Paint-
ing the number 14 on floor 13 doesn't change it from being
the thirteenth floor. So why should just a wrong number 14
on a wall make any difference? This logic is somehow lost on
superstitious people. Someone told them that the number 13
brings "bad luck" so they simply believe it without questionú

25


26  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

Figure 8.1. Some superstitious people will not live, work, or visit a floor marked 13
because they believe it would cause them "bad luck." Builders sometimes mark the real
13th floor with a false 14 so that superstitious people will not have to worry that the
number 13 will haunt them. (Drawing by Albert Sarney)

"CARDSTACKING" THE EVIDENCE
FOR A SUPERSTITION

Superstitious people say they "know" that the number 13 is
unlucky because they claim to have observed examples when
it seems to have been true. "Last month Sam Bungling, who
lives in apartment 1303, fell off a bicycle and broke his arm.
Then last week Mary Contrary, from 1307, had her car stolen.
And don't forget, Bill Barker, in apartment 1310, was bitten
by a dog yesterday. I told him not to rent that apartment on
the thirteenth floor."
Believers in the superstition claim that such "anecdotal evi-
dence" (based on "anecdotes": stories about events) is based
on observations. But the mere listing of misfortunes for peo-
ple living or working on a thirteenth floor does not prove that
they are the result of special "bad luck," because everyone has


An Experiment with a Superstition    27

some misfortunes, including those living on any other floors.
We could give as many examples of misfortunes on those floors
as on floor 13.
We can't tell whether the people living or working on a
floor marked 13 are more "unlucky" than people living on other
floors unless we can show this by careful observations. An
experiment, based on a detailed investigation, would have to
be performed.
When people try to "prove" superstitions, or even opinions,
with anecdotal evidence they often make a common error in
reasoning called cardstacking. This word comes from the way
some gamblers prepare ("stack") cards in advance of a game
in special ways that give them better chances to win.
People cardstack the evidence when they look for, or show,
only those examples that are in favor of whatever they want
to "prove," while hiding or ignoring all the examples that show
it to be untrue. (Figure 3.2)
Some people deliberately cardstack evidence to mislead
others. But more often, people are so eager to "prove" them-

Figure 3.2. Evidence is often "cardstacked" by presenting only the facts FOR while
hiding or suppressing the facts AGAINST. People often fool themselves by ignoring or
rejecting facts that may show their opinions to be wrong, (Drawing by Albert Sarney)


28  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

selves right in their opinions that they ignore the evidence
showing them to be wrong.

AN EXPERIMENT TO FIND THE TRUTH ABOUT 13

Could we do a scientific experiment to see if there is any truth
to the superstition that living on a floor marked thirteen brings
"bad luck?" What would we have to do?
Suppose a student named Eddie does such an experiment
for his science project. He selects a tall building with a thir-
teenth floor and decides to interview people living on that floor.
He also needs a "control" for purposes of comparison, perhaps
the twelfth fiooor, to see which one has people with more "bad
luck." He plans to find out about the amount of "bad luck"
by interviewing everyone on both floors.
Eddie starts by ringing the bell for apartment 1301. A mid-
dle-aged man appears. "Yeah. Whaddaya want?"
Eddie explains his science project and asks the man if he
will cooperate by listing the misfortunes he has had recently.
The man glares at Eddie.
"I ain't got no time for such nonsense. I'm watching a foot-
ball game." SLAM goes the door. Now Eddie can't go there any
more. He crosses 1301 off the list.
This is serious. Missing one, or several apartments, distorts
the comparison. Gruff people like the man in 1301 may be angry
at the world because they have had a lot of misfortunes and
don't want to talk about them. In that case Eddie would be
missing many examples of "bad luck" and his records would
be incomplete.
In apartment 1302 he finds a nice lady who says, "That's
a great idea. Sure, I'll be glad to help you with your project.
Come in and have some cookies and soda."
She begins a long account of lots of little misfortunes. "Let's
see. On Monday I scraped my arm and it bled, so I washed
it with peroxide, then put on a Band-Aid. And last Wednes-
day my uncle Pete had a pain in his stomach. Would you be-
lieve that the doctor sent him to the hospital right away?
Thought he might be having a heart attack. So they took a
cardiogram, but found nothing wrong. But they are keeping
him for observation for a few days ....      "And so on for half
an hour.


An Experiment with a Superstition 29
CAN WE MEASURE "BAD LUCK?"

That night Eddie tries to figure out what to do with his scrib-
bled notes about a number of interviews. He enounters a seri-
ous problem. Which is a worse misfortune, a broken leg or
pneumonia? How should he compare one person's loss of a job
with getting a divorce? Or losing $1,000 in a bad investment?
Or learning that a very good friend died?
Researchers doing interviews of events involving what
people say or do often set up a rating system from one to ten,
which helps them compare answers or results. Eddie does the
same by rating the smallest misfortune as one and the worst
a ten.
What rating does he assign to the misfortune of a broken
leg? Five? Seven? Nine? How does he take into account the
severity of the break, when some legs are as good as new in
a few months, while others cause permanent crippling?
What rating is assigned to losing a wallet with $1000 This
is a big misfortune to someone with a large family who barely
earns enough money to get by. But it's practically no misfor-
tune to a millionaire. How does Eddie find out how rich or poor
the loser may be?
Different people are also likely to rate misfortunes differ-
ently. Someone who has never known poverty may not give
a high rating for the loss of $100, easily replaced (for him) by
going to the bank. A poor person doing the rating is likely
to be more sympathetic and rate the loss higher on the scale.
Here's another problem: Eddie found ten people reporting
minor cuts, easily fixed with Band-Aids. He gives each of these
a rating of one, for a total of ten. But then he also rated a
death in the family, reported by one person, with the highest
value of ten. Yet that death is clearly a lot worse than ten
separate Band-Aid cuts, also worth a total of ten.
For these reasons the rating system for misfortunes is said
to be "subjective," and not "objective."

SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE?

Judgments are subjective when they depend on differing opin-
ions, beliefs, and personal experiences. Eddie's rating system
is clearly very subjective. If Elsie, Bobby, or Sally were rating


30  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

the same misfortunes, each one would probably assign very
different ratings. Ratings of "bad luck," based on what people
tell us about their misfortunes, are certainly very subjective.
On the other hand, ratings are said to be objective if they
are not based on personal feeYmgs or prejudice, but on some
kind of easily repeated measurement that enables everyone to
assign practically the same rating.
For example, ten people trying to judge the length of a
room just by sight would give many different estimates. But
a measuring tape would enable all to agree on the length within
a fraction of an inch.
On the other hand, no instrument can measure the amount
of "bad luck" because it is too vague and abstract. It has no
length, width, height, volume, weight, or color that can be meas-
ured. We can't see it, hear it, touch it, smell it, or taste it. It
is not a thing but an abstract idea.
Many imp{>vtant, hard-to-measure ideas about the world are
very abstract: good, bad, better, worse, luck, democracy, freedom,
love, hate, jealousy, and lots more. To get some kind of measure-
ment to compare good and bad luck we have to invent a tricky,
subjective rating system that depends on the ideas people have.
The numbers people assign to ratings are deeply affected
by their prejudices (pre-judgments.) Their ratings would be
biased (slanted) in favor of what they think is better or worse.
In such cases people tend to "cardstack" their records by not
noting misfortunes they think are unimportant.
Cardstacking also occurs if people have strong opinions
about the outcome of an experiment. For example, if Eddie be-
lieves that 13 is an unlucky number, he may give higher ratings
to similar misfortunes on floor 13 than to those on other floors.
People are usually not aware of bias in their strongly held
opinions. It is subconscious (below the level of consciousness,
or awareness). They feel better if their opinions are shown to
be fight, and feel badly if shown to be wrong. So they often
"see what they want to see." In such cases a subjective ex-
periment to see if the superstition about "bad luck" on the thir-
teenth floor is true, or not, is likely to end up "proving" whatever
the person wants to prove.
One way for Eddie to reduce the effect of his bias would
be to have several other people rate the misfortunes on the two
floors, without knowing whether they occurred on floor 12 or
13. But this greatly complicates his experiment.


An Experiment with a Superstition 31

WHAT DO THE RATINGS MEAN?

There are still more problems after the ratings of "bad luck"
are assigned. Suppose Eddie adds up the ratings of all
misfortunes for each floor and finds the total for floor 12 to
be 217, while that for floor 13 is 249.
To see how much greater 249 is than 217, he divides 249
by 217 and gets 1.15. This is the same as saying 249 is 15%
greater than 217. Does this "prove" that people living on floor
13 had 15% more misfortunes than for floor 12, and therefore
had more "bad luck?"
No. There is too much variation with only ten families on
each floor, and only for one month. If Eddie were to conduct
interviews for another month or in another building, the mis-
fortunes would certainly be different and the totals might go
the other way, with floor 12 getting the higher total.
There is some safety in having a greater number of inter-
views, in more buildings, in different places, and for a longer
period of time.
How many interviews are enough? Scientists use a kind
of mathematics called statistics to guide them in judging how
often they shotrid repeat a measurement or rating to get enough
observations to make a proper judgment.
You can see that it would require a lot of time and money
to do an experiment properly to find out ff people on floor 13
really have more "bad luck."
No one has ever done this properly for the superstition about
"bad luck" on floors marked 13, partly because of the time, ef-
fort, and cost. But suppose someone actually did this. Those
who disagree with the conclusions cotrid find plenty of reasons
for saying that the experiment is unscientific because the rat-
ings are so subjective, and therefore it doesn't prove anything.

HOW TO SHOW THAT A SUPERSTITION IS NOT TRUE

Although probably no one has done an experiment to find out
if there is more "bad luck" on the thirteenth floor, there is
good evidence to show that the general superstition about
number 13 is not true.
Records are kept by hospitals, police, fire and health de-
partments, and insurance companies, for many kinds of mis-


32  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

fortunes: fires, crimes, diseases, deaths, accidents in homes, car
and airplane crashes. This information is quite reliable because
it is based on objective observations by physicians, firemen,
policemen, and other officials. These people have no reason to
be biased about noting that somebody died, or that people were
injured in auto accidents, and on what dates they happened.
As a result, we can easily test the truth of a common su-
perstition about 13, that Friday the 13th (or any other thir-
teenth day of the month) is unlucky. We can simply total all
the deaths, or accidents, or fires, or illnesses, or crimes on dif-
ferent days of each month and compare these completely ob-
jective numbers.
These official records show that no more misfortunes oc-
cur on Friday the 13th, or on any other thirteenth day of the
month, than on other days. This is strong evidence that the
superstition about the number 13 being "unlucky" is not true.

USING OUR REASONING POWER

We can also use logical reasoning to show that the supersti-
tion about 13 is very unlikely to be true. Let's ask an impor-
tant scientific question that superstitious people ignore: How
is the number 13 supposed to cause misfortunes for people liv-
ing on a thirteenth floor?
Suppose someone who is superstitious gets off the elevator
on a thirteenth floor and sees a big 13 on the wall. Does that
number 13 somehow have invisible eyes that see and recognize
a victim? Does the invisible spirit of that ghostly 13 then follow
the victim around for the next few months? Does it arrange
to have a banana peel on some steps to make the victim fall
and break a leg to give him some "bad luck"? (Figure 3.3)
Just asking these questions tells us how silly the supersti-
tion is. There is nothing we have ever seen, heard, felt, smelled,
or tasted, nothing we can observe, that could explain how a
mere number 13 on the wall could do all those magical things.
Such superstitions contradict what we know about the way
the real world works. It is an example of fairy-tale thinking.
For that reason we are quite sure that the superstition about
13 and "bad luck" is very unlikely to be true, as much as we
can know anything else in this complicated world.
Other superstitions about "bad luck" or "good luck" can


An Experiment with a Superstition 33

Figure 3.3. Belief in the superstition that the number 13 causes "bad luck" implies
that some kind of ghostly "spirit" of 13 follows people around and arranges some kind
of misfortune to occur. There is no observable evidence that this is so. (Drawing by
Albert Sarney)

be analyzed in much the same way, by means of reasoning,
as we have done for the superstition about 13.

HOW SUPERSTITIONS CAN HARM US

There is a way for the number 13 to harm a person. Suppose
someone who strongly believes in the superstition about 13
causing "bad luck" happens to visit a floor marked 13. The
fear that the evil spirit of 13 would pursue its victim, and in-
evitably cause harm, could make a believer nervous and acc-
ident-prone (likely to have accidents). Little misfortunes are then
likely to be exaggerated and imagined to be big ones. Some
people can worry themselves into illness, even death, by imag-
ining the worst.
In one recent trial for murder, a son was accused of kill-
ing his father who had tyrannized the family and friends with
the superstitious belief that he had an evil spirit in an urn.
The reason the son gave for the murder is that he had to free


34  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

the family from the terrible power of the evil spirit that they
were convinced was in the urn.
Even with the tyrannical father gone the family did not
dare to throw it into a garbage dump because they believed
the magical powers of the evil spirit would somehow find a
way to harm them.
The family solved their problem with the evil spirit by call-
ing in an "exorcist" to get rid of the spirit by saying the right
magic words and declaring it dead. Only then did they feel
safe. Meanwhile, of course, the father was dead and the son
was in jail awaiting his trial for murder.
The best remedy for such fearful thinking is the knowl-
edge that superstitions about "bad luck" or "good luck" are
not true. There is no reliable evidence that there are invisible,
supernatural spirits that can do magical things that contra-
dict what we know about the real world.
Of course, most people do not think that they could ever
be taken in by such superstitious beliefs. But just a minute!
Polls show that one out of four people in the United States
believes in another superstition called astrology. Widespread
belief in this superstition is also shown by the fact that over
1,000 newspapers in our country publish columns giving daily
"horoscopes" that claim to tell people what kinds of events are
likely to happen to them in the future, according to their dates
of birth.
How do we know that astrology is a superstition? The next
chapter explains how we can analyze what astrologers say to
show that their beliefs are based on superstition.


4

Astrology: Science or Superstition?

Polls have shown that about one person in four in the United
States believes in astrology. Many of them read the daily
horoscopes in newspapers and try to follow the advice in those
columns. In addition, many books on the subject are published
and sold, and some people even pay astrologers a good deal
of money to prepare personal horoscopes to help them make
important decisions.
Astrologers who prepare these horoscopes say that what
they do is good "science," based on "facts." They claim to be
able to tell from any person's time and date of birth what kind
of character he or she has as an adult. They also declare that
they can predict for anybody on earth whether a particular
time is "favorable" or "unfavorable" for different kinds of activi-
ties people want to undertake. For example, they advise people
if any chosen day or time of day is good for a marriage ceremony,
starting a business, going on a trip, or for anything else.
Astrologers claim they can do all this by making a "horo-
scope" for each time and place. They use astronomical tables
to figure out exactly where the sun, moon, planets, and con-
stellations were, or will be, in the sky for the particular moment
and place. Then they apply very complicated rules of astrology
to predict if the luck for the activity in question would be good
or bad. If they decide that the moment is not a good one, they
claim to be able to tell what time of day, or other days, would
be better.
This would be a marvelous service if true. So it is important
to answer the question, "Is astrology really science, and can

35


36  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

it predict good or back luck for any activity anyone is planning
to undertake?"

IS ASTROLOGY TRUE?

A good way to answer such a question is to analyze what
astrologers say and do. Let's do this for a famous astrologer,
Joan Quigley, who for many years prepared horoscopes for well-
known actors and actresses. For six years she was paid a large
fee by Nancy Reagan, wife of President Reagan, to prepare
horoscopes for many of the president's important appointments.
We know this happened because Nancy Reagan says so
in her book My Turn. Joan Quigley confirms this in her own
book What Does Joan Say ?
Consider just one of many examples Quigley describes of
the kinds of changes she says she made in the president's
schedule of important appointments.
In 1987 President Reagan arranged to go to Bitberg, Ger-
many, for a wreath-laying ceremony to honor the memory of
Germans who died in World War II. This visit became contro-
versial and Mrs. Reagan was worried, not only about the presi-
dent's safety, but also about bad publicity. She asked Quigley
to check the president's planned schedule and tell her if any
changes should be made to avoid "bad luck."
The ceremony had been scheduled for early in the morning.
Quigley explains in her book how she prepared a horoscope
for the scheduled time and decided that it was not a good-luck
moment for the ceremony. She says that at 11:45 A.M. the planets
and stars were in a much more "favorable" position for the
ceremony. So, she says she insisted that the president's assistant
change the time, even though that was difficult to do.
In her book she explains why she made that change:

At the time I chose, the Sun, which ruled the event itself, was
in a very elevated position in the 10th house of great prominence
and prestige. The sun and the proud, honorable and dignified
Leo Ascendant described the nature of the event. Jupiter, the
planet of benevolence and good will, represented the public. Two
planets in the 9th house indicated global attention. And Mars
in the 10th showed a kind of victory.


Astrology: Science or Superstition? 37

This way of deciding on a "best" time for the president's
ceremony raises many questions:
Why should the sun high in the sky ("in a very elevated
position"), and in a certain part of the sky ("10th house"), give
the president's ceremony "great prominence and prestige"?
Does the sun have a brain that can understand what is
happening on earth at a ceremony in a certain place called
Bitberg? Does the sun do the same for all the billions of other
human events taking place everywhere on earth at the same
time?
Why should a chance collection of separate stars in a
constellation called Leo, thousands of billions of miles away,
be "proud, honorable and dignified." How could these
enormously distant stars "describe the nature" of our president's
ceremony in Germany?
How does the planet Jupiter bestow "benevolence and good
will," or "represent the public" for a ceremony in Bitberg, Ger-
many, hundreds of millions of miles away? Where did Jupiter
get that power? How does it transmit this "benevolence and
good will" to earth?
The president's ceremony was already getting top billing
on TV and radio programs throughout the world. So, why should
"two planets in the 9th house" give it any more "global atten-
tion" than it had? And how does Mars give the president's
ceremony "victory," whatever that means?
Astrologers do not ask or answer such difficult "why" ques-
tions because they are just blindly following the rules of a kind
of very complicated game called "astrology"--somewhat like
Monopoly. They learned the rules of this game by reading books
or going to special schools. Nobody writing these astrology
books, or teaching astrology courses, bothers to ask such ques-
tions or tries to answer them the way scientists do: by means
of careful investigations, usually with experiments.
Most of the rules were invented by astrologers who lived
more than 2,000 years ago. Ever since, other astrologers have
been blindly following those rules without bothering to prove
that what they are doing is true or false! Some of the more
creative ones invent their own rules, put them into books, and
then teach them to others.


38  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

ASTROLOGERS DO NOT UNDERSTAND
WHAT A FACT IS

Consider Quigley's statement that "the Sun... was... in the
10th house of great prominence and prestige." And then she
writes, "Two planets in the 9th house indicated global atten-
tion. And Mars in the 10th showed a kind of victory."
What are these "houses" in the sky that Quigley thinks
are so important? They are just one of the many kinds of
invented rules of the game, imaginary sections of the entire
sky from north to south. Most astrologers divide the sky into
12 such "houses," but some have imagined there to be 8, 20,
24, or other numbers of sections.
Using fairy-tale thinking, with no evidence at all, they have
imagined each house to have some control over an aspect of
human life. Astrologers differ in what they imagine belongs
in each house. In the 12-house system that Quigley follows,
the First House is imagined to influence human personality
and temperament. The Second Itouse takes care of possessions
and feelings. Other houses deal with travel, or family, or public
affairs, etc.
As the earth rotates on its axis the sky appears to revolve
around us once every day, wherever we happen to be. Astrologers
imagine that the sun, moon, planets, and constellations each
steadily move from one house into the next. When the sun or
moon, or a planet or constellation, crosses the fence (boundary)
between one house and the next it leaves behind the qualities
of the house it was in and picks up those of the new house.
There have been as many as 50 different systems of houses
in the sky. Any astrologer can imagine his or her own number
of houses and what each should mean. But no one does any
controlled experiments to find out if their imaginary houses
in the sky really do affect people as they claim. With this fairy-
tale thinking, whatever any astrologer imagines to be true is
assumed to be true.
Figure 4.1 illustrates how silly this fairy-tale kind of thinking
really is. Should anyone delay a trip until the sun appears to
move into an imaginary "house" in the sky that is supposed
to control everybody's luck while traveling? Since there is no
evidence whatsoever that any such "house" exists, why should
anyone believe it?


Astrology: Science or Superstition ? 39

Figure 4.1.
Millie: "Why don't we start on our vacation trip."
Billie: "My astrologer told me to wait until the sun gets into the House of Travel,
or we'll run into bad luck."
Millie: "Why didn't we leave an hour ago when it was in the house of wealth?"

ANIMALS IN THE CONSTEILATIONS?

Let's analyze why Quigley thinks that "the proud, honorable
and dignified Leo Ascendant described the nature of the event."
Leo is the name of a constellation. The word "Leo" comes
from the word "lion" in Latin, an ancient language of the
Romans. They had borrowed the idea nf ~ ]inn in fh~ ~b~, ~-,~rn


40  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

Figure 4,2, This diagram shows the arrangement of bright stars in the constellation
called Leo (meaning lion in Latin.) Do you see any lion in the accidental arrangement
of stars, as ancient astrologers imagined they saw? When today's astrologers make
horoscopes they assume that this ancient superstition is true, although they deny being
superstitious. (Drawing by Albert Sarney)

to work dreaming up what kind of influences on luck this lion
would have on the lives of all people on our distant earth.
They used their favorite method of reasoning by analogy.
If two different things are alike in some way, then they might
be alike in other ways. However, astrologers forget the "might
be" and take it to mean "must be." They abuse this method
of reasoning by analogy so badly, by changing "might" into
"must," that we may describe it as stretched analogy.
In olden times the lion was considered to be the "king of
beasts." Kings are supposed to be "proud, honorable and dig-
nified." So, by stretched analogy, the accidental group of sepa-
rate stars in Leo, m'filions of b',llions of re'ties away, was also
imagined to be "proud, honorable and dignified." And that's
why Quigley imagines she knows that the group of stars some
ancient astrologer happened to call Leo would transmit pride,
honor, and dignity to the president's ceremony.
What does Quigley mean by "Leo Ascendant." A planet
or constellation that is near the eastern horizon and therefore
beginning to rise in the morning sky is ascending, therefore
"in the Ascendant." By stretched analogy, if a planet or con-
stellation is rising it is getting more powerful. So "Leo Ascen-


Astrology: Science or Superstition? 41

dant" gives the president's ceremony more of its qualities of
pride, honor, and dignity.
Quigley did some astrological "cardstacking" here. A lion
can be very vicious when killing and eating an innocent lamb,
but Quigley decided to ignore that violent aspect of the stretched
analogy to lions. She chose to imagine that gentle Leo gave
only his good qualities to the Bitberg ceremony.
Another astrologer might have chosen to see the lion as
violent and warned the president not to have the ceremony
at the dangerous time of 11:45 A.M. when Leo was "in the
Ascendant."
Suppose ancient astrologers had imagined they saw a
chicken in the sky for the constellation, instead of a lion, and
therefore called it "Chickie," not Leo. In that case the constel-
lation of Chickie might well be viewed by today's astrologers
as influencing people and events to be more like chickens than
lions--perhaps timid and cowardly rather than proud, honor-
able, and dignified.

ASTROLOGY IS BASED ON BELIEF IN ANCIENT GODS

The Romans, borrowing ideas from the Greeks of ancient times,
imagined that the god Mars caused the planet Mars to move
through the sky. Similarly, the god Jupiter was supposed to
move the planet called Jupiter; the goddess Venus moved the
planet Venus; the god Mercury moved the planet Mercury; and
the god Saturn moved the planet Saturn.
The fact that ancient Roman astrologers used the same
names for the gods as for the planets tells us that they thought
of them as almost the same. For that reason it seemed reasonable
to them to look for clues as to what the gods might be like
from the appearance of the planets they caused to move.
The planet Mars has a reddish appearance. That reminded
ancient astrologers of blood, which reminded them of violence
and war. Wars were fought by strong, brave men who hoped
for victory. So, by stretched analogy, ancient astrologers imag-
ined that Mars was the god in charge of war, violence, courage,
manliness, soldiers, and victory--and any similar qualities they
could imagine.
That's where Quigley got her idea that "Mars in the 10th
[house] showed a kind of victory." This reasoning tells us that


42  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

she accepts as true the ancient Roman superstition that the
god-planet called Mars controls human wars, bloodshed,
violence, victory, and sim'fiar qualities of human life and events.
Another astrologer could just as well have chosen the
influence of Mars on the ceremony at Bitberg to mean violence.
That would have matched the violent side of Leo, the lion. Such
an astrologer could have come to an opposite conclusion from
Quigley, that 11:45 A.M. should be avoided because it predicted
violence.
The planet Jupiter moves much more slowly across the sky
than Mars or Venus. By stretched analogy, astrologers of old
probably imagined Jupiter to be older, therefore the chief god.
He was thought to be more mature, wiser, and beneficial. That's
why astrologer Quigley says that Jupiter is the planet of "benev-
olence and good will" and "represented the public."
The planet Venus looks beautiful in the sky, so ancient
astrologers imagined it to be a female god whose influence on
people would be about beauty, love, and womanly matters.
We now know that Mercury is the planet closest to the sun.
For that reason it appears to move more rapidly in the sky
than any other planet. To ancient astrologers this faster motion
provided the clue that Mercury, the god, was young and speedy.
That is why Mercury, the god, is often pictured as having winged
feet, serving as the messenger for the other gods. (Figure 4.3)
By stretched analogy, Mercury's fast motion in the sky led
ancient astrologers to put him in charge of human transpor-
tation, communication, business, and commerce. Today's astrol-
ogers do the same.
Saturn is the slowest-moving visible planet so it was thought
to be the "bringer of old age" and "cold." These qualities re-
minded astrologers of approaching death, so Saturn's influence
on earthly things was often considered to be more harmful than
beneficial.
All this supernatural magic by ancient gods is an example
of fairy-tale thinking. It has little to do with anything we observe
in the real world. But that is the way astrologers of today think.
What is the chance that any forecasts they make, based on
these ideas, would be true?
With such fairy-tale thinking and extremely stretched analo-
gies it is clear that astrologers really do not know what a fact
is.t They seem to believe that whatever they choose to imagine
to be true is really so.


Astrology: Science or Superstition? 43

Figure 4.3. Ancient astrologers pictured their god Mercury with magical winged feet,
serving the gods as a messenger. This remains today as a modern symbol for speedy
delivery. Today's astrologers still follow this ancient superstition when they assume that
the role of Mercury (the god), as a speedy messenger, causes Mercury (the planet) to
"influence" transportation and commerce on earth. (Courtesy of Florists' Transworld
Delivery)

Why should anyone believe in the predictions astrologers
make with such fairy-tale thinking?


44  Part One: Superstition and Fairy-Tale Thinking

How baffled the early astrologers must have been when they
could not account for the deceptions, rumors, and drug or alcohol
abuse caused by Neptune, or the overnight success or sudden
collapse of fortune so typical of Uranus. Neptune and Pluto
together in the air in the sign of Gem'mi were responsible for
the miracle of flight in the early 1900s, and Pluto rules, among
other things, that uniquely 20th century phenomenon, the media.

According to such reasoning, why should we honor the
Wright brothers for inventing the airplane when Neptune, Pluto,
and Gemini really did it? Why blame drug dealers, liars, and
rumor-mongers when Neptune really made them do it? And
if something is wrong with the media--newspapers and tele-
vision-why not blame it on Pluto?
Unfortunately, the more than 1,000 newspapers that publish
those daily, meaningless horoscopes do not tell their readers
that it is all based on ancient superstition and fairy-tale thinking.
Many people, especially children, believe practically everything
they read. So why should we be surprised that so many people
believe in the ancient superstition of astrology?

In Part One of this book we investigated the nature of super-
stition. We showed that it is based on fairy-tale thinking that
ignores facts.
In the remaining chapters of this book--Part Two--we
examine the powerful scientific way of thinking that enables
us to obtain facts about the world and has greatly increased
our knowledge and abfiity to do things.
Along with the many good things this scientific knowledge
has brought to the world, it has also produced some harmful
effects. As a result, a major task today is for people everywhere
to learn how to use this powerful way of thinking to solve the
many problems that now confront the world.
We begin, in chapter 5, with some answers to the impor-
tant question, "How are new facts discovered?"


PART TWO

SCIENCE AS A WAY OF THINKING



5

How New Facts Are Discovered

There have always been some great thinkers who put facts
ahead of superstitious, fairy-tale methods of thinking. We might
call them the early "scientists." But it has been mainly in the
past 500 years that the scientific way of thinking has been
widely accepted. As a result, today we are able to discover
important new facts about our environment very much faster
than ever before.
In the chapters that follow you will see how the scientific
way of thinking developed and how it has changed our world.
But first, in this chapter, let's examine how the scientific way
of thinking differs from superstition and fairy-tale thinking,
and how we use it to build our knowledge.

AN EXAMPLE: CAN ROCKS FALL
FROM OUTER SPACE?

Before the year 1803 the idea that rocks could fall from the
sky seemed utterly ridiculous. Where would the rocks be coming
from? Is someone sitting up in the clouds with a pile of rocks
throwing them down on us? Impossible!
There had been occasional reports from distant places of
rocks falling from the sky and hitting the ground with a loud
crash. However, in 1803 there were no telephones, radios, cars,
or airplanes, and it was hard to investigate sketchy reports
from faraway places. So, there were no reports from trustworthy
observers that rocks could actually fall from above. Such an

47


48  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

idea was considered to be just a product of imagination.
Then, on August 26, 1803, many people in the village of
Laigle in France saw fast-moving bright streaks of light in the
sky. They heard crashing sounds. Afterwards, they found many
new crater-shaped pits of different sizes in the ground near the
village. Each crater contained a rock that people could see was
quite different from those usually found in the area.
Although it was hard to believe, the people of Laigle were
quite sure of the fact that a shower of rocks had somehow
fallen to earth.
People elsewhere were skeptical about these incredible re-
ports. But reports from so many people in Laigle could not be
ignored so easily. So a team of scientists went to Laigle to
investigate. In a large area, six miles long and three miles wide,
they observed about 3,000 new crater-shaped pits in the ground,
each containing a strangely shaped rock. From such strong
evidence, based on many observations, the scientists concluded
that a shower of rocks, moving at high speed, really had fallen
from above.
Where had they come from? The only explanation that
made sense was that these rocks had fallen to earth from outer
space.
A report by the scientists about their observations, with
a proposed explanation of what happened, was published world-
wide, in newspapers and science magazines.
At first, the idea that rocks could fall to earth from outer
space was considered by many scientists to be a hypothesis,
a reasonable guess for a possible fact, based on some evidence.
Such a startling new hypothesis stimulated scientists to seri-
ously consider the idea. Many of them began to look for fur-
ther evidence for or against it.

HOW OUR KNOWLEDGE GREW

The discovery that rocks could fall to earth from above opened
the door to a new area of knowledge in astronomy that grew
very rapidly as many new observations were made. Today, the
knowledge gathered since the event at Laigle in 1803 plays an
important part in the picture scientists now have of the way
the earth, sun, moon, planets, and all the stars were formed
many billions of years ago.


How New Facts Are Discovered    49

All of this knowledge is based on careful observations.
For example, it was observed that before the rocks hit the
ground, they were often seen by people hundreds of miles away,
rapidly streaking across the entire sky as brightly glowing
"fireballs." This observation showed that they were at a great
height in the atmosphere and traveled at enormous speed.
Astronomers have instruments that enable them to measure
the height above ground and speed of these fireballs. They are
found to be traveling at speeds of about ten miles a second
and begin to glow in the upper atmosphere at a height of about
50 miles.
Because of their resemblance in the sky to meteors, the
falling rocks were called meteorites. We now know that the
main difference between meteors and meteorites is their size.
Meteors are very tiny; most are the size of grains of dust. When
they hit the earth's atmosphere at enormous speed, friction
with the air heats them and they glow for only a moment
before the small amount of material is burned up or evaporates.
Meteors may be seen on any clear, moonless night, far
from city lights, as quick streaks of light that usually last for
only a second or so. The larger the grain of dust (perhaps the
size of a grain of sand), the longer and brighter the streak.
Photography is one of the most important aids to astron-
omers because it captures observations at a moment in time.
Figure 5.1 shows how useful photographs can be. This one,
taken while the lens of the camera was kept open for several
hours, captured the image of a meteor that happened to flash
across the northern part of the sky during that time. As the
earth rotated, the circular streaks were produced by bright stars
as they appeared to revolve around the North Pole.
Note how the meteor streak widens and narrows at sev-
eral places as parts of it burned, evaporated, or broke off be-
cause of the heat caused by friction with the air at high speed.
Some meteorites fell closely enough to where scientists r~ved
so that they could be examined shortly after they fell to earth.
It was observed that the outside of a newly fallen meteorite is
very hot because of friction with the air. However, when broken
open, the interior was found to be extremely cold because the
meteorite had been in very cold outer space for a very long time.
Some meteorites in museums are enormous. The meteorite
shown in Figure 5.2 is just one piece of a huge meteorite that
produced the crater shown in Figure 5.3.


50  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 5.1. This photograph of the northern sky was taken with the lens open for
several hours. The circular arcs show the apparent motion of northern stars as the earth
rotated. The straight line streak is the track of a meteor that flashed across the sky while
the lens was open. (Photo by W. Lockyer, Lockyer Observatory, England)

SOME GIGANTIC FALLS OF METEORITES

The biggest fall of meteorites since the one in Laigle occurred
one morning in 1908 in a remote area of Siberia, in Russia.
Many people saw an immense fireball streak across the sky,
then heard distant thundering sounds that ended in a loud crash
heard up to 650 miles away!
The impact was so powerful that people and horses 100 miles
from the site of the crash were blown over by the wind, and
some were knocked unconscious! Giant waves formed in rivers.
In broad daylight, people living 250 miles from the crash saw
a jet of flame about twelve mfies high. Earthquake shocks were


How New Facts Are Discovered    51

Figure 5.2. The man's hand in this photograph indicates the large size of this meteorite.
It is just one of many that had hit the earth at the same time and formed the huge
crater in northern Arizona shown in Figure 5.3. Note the pock-marked surface caused
by melting or breaking of outer parts of the rock as it hit the air at extremely high speed.
(Courtesy of Meteor Crater Enterprises)

reported on measuring instruments all around the earth.
There were no cities or villages in the area where the rocks
fell, so there were no known deaths. However, anyone who hap-
pened to be within many miles from the center of that crash
would probably not have survived to tell about it.
The place where the meteorites fell was so remote that it
was not observed by scientists until nineteen years later, and
then only from an airplane. They saw a completely devastated
area about 50 miles in diameter, with most of the trees knocked
down, as though blown over by an incredibly powerful wind.
Two hundred craters were observed from the air. There
surely are many thousands of smaller ones that were not visi-
ble from the airplane.


52  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Whatever hit the earth was certainly a huge mass, perhaps
as big as a large ship. The mass seems to have exploded into
many pieces before reaching the ground. Such an explosion could
have been caused by sudden heating and bo'fiing of frozen gases.
We now know that comets are composed of rock, ice, and frozen
gases. One of the many comets in orbit around the sun may
have hit the earth, causing the devastation in Siberia in 1908.
We do not know of anyone killed by meteorites, but there
have been some close calls. In 1946, a hail of meteorites in Kenya,
located in East Africa, flattened huts in many villages over
an area sixty miles wide. One village was set afire and many
cattle were killed. Fortunately, no people died in that incident.

METEORITES IN THE PAST

Can we figure out what happened in the distant past, even
though no one ever observed the events? Yes, by using our
marvelous brains and ability to reason logically. Like detec-
fives, scientists search for clues to figure out what probably
happened. We can infer (conclude from evidence) some details
about events that probably happened in the past from what
we observe in the present.
There is very strong evidence that some very large meteor-
ites fell to earth in the distant past. We find a number of circu-
lar "impact craters" on earth, of many different sizes, up to
many miles in diameter. One such crater, in Arizona, is shown
in Figure 5.3. It is almost a mile in diameter and deeper than
a 60-story building. Compare its size to that of the tiny road
seen in the picture, taken from an airplane.
From magnetic measurements we know that a large mass
of iron, often found in meteorites, lies beneath the crater floor.
The evidence indicates that this crater was caused by the im-
pact of a gigantic meteorite many years ago.
Geologists have several ways to estimate the ages of rocks.
From their observations and measurements they estimate that
this crater was formed about 12,000 years ago.
A number of other large impact craters have been discov-
ered, often by noting large circular features on maps or photo-
graphs from satellites. Most of these were formed many mil-
lions of years ago, as shown by the way they have been eroded
(worn away by rain, wind, rivers, and ice) over a long time.


How New Facts Are Discovered 53

Figure 5.3. Meteor Crater, almost a mile in diameter, was produced by the impact
of a huge mass of rock about 12,000 years ago. The main mass buried itself underground,
but many smaller meteorites are scattered around the site. (Arizona Office of Tourism)

METEORITES IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM

Other evidence about what happened in the distant past comes
from observations with large telescopes of the surfaces of plan-
ets and their moons. Many "impact craters" are observed on our
own moon (Figure 5.4), on Mercury (Figure 5.5), and on most
moons revolving around the other planets. The way some of these
craters overlap indicates that they occurred at different times.
Additional evidence for rocks in space came from discov-
ery of many "small planets," called asteroids, that orbit the sun.
They range in size from the largest, Ceres (pronounced as
"series"), about 900 miles in diameter, down to some of irregular
shape that are only about one m'fie long. There must be many
more that are too small to be visible in our best telescopes.
More evidence for rocks in space, of many sizes, came from
the spaceship Voyager II, which flew past Saturn in 1984. Scien-
tists planned an experiment in which radio signals were trans-
mitted to earth through Saturn's rings. (Figure 5.6) From obser-
vations of the way these radio signals were weakened astrono-
mers were able to infer that they probably contain dust, rocks,
and boulders of many sizes, all revolving in orbit around Saturn.
Other evidence about the nature of materials in space came
from a space probe sent up from Russia in 1986 to investigate
Halley's Comet as it approached the sun from far out in space,
on its elongated 76-year orbit. Close-up pictures revealed that


54  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 5.4. The moon's surface reveals many thousands of craters, of many sizes, caused
by impact of gigantic meteorites in the distant past. (Lick Observatory)

it was a peanut-shaped mass, about 8 miles long.
A bright halo of vapors and dust streamed outward from
the head of the comet. This is what formed the bright tail which
always points away from the sun. Scientists have found in the
laboratory that light exerts slight pressure on objects it strikes.
Out in space, that pressure of sunlight on a comet's dust and
gases pushes them in a direction away from the sun.
Figure 5.7 shows the spectacular, bright "tail" of illumi-
nated gases and dust from Halley's Comet as it appeared in
1910. It was an astonishing sight, stretching across one-sixth
of the entire arc of the sky and estimated to be many millions
of miles in length.
Astronomers concluded from these and other observations
that comets are composed of a central mass of rock, or perhaps
loose groups of rocks, mixed with ice, frozen gases, and dust.
The dust and gases released by comets, and perhaps small
rocks that break free, wander off into orbit around the sun.
Some of these materials eventually hit planets and moons,


How New Facts Are Discovered 55

Figure 5,5, This photograph, pieced together from a number of separate pictures taken
by Mariner 10 as it passed by Mercury, shows many craters similar to those on the moon.
(National Aeronautics and Space Administration)

perhaps our own earth. We then see them flash through the
atmosphere as meteors, or reach the ground as meteorites.
It is also likely that some of the dust and rocks that hit
the earth have been orbiting the sun from the very beginning
of the solar system.
Scientists can identify many tiny bits of dust floating in
the air as having come from meteors. They also find such
particles in deep deposits of mud at the bottom of the ocean.
This shows that the earth has been bombarded by a rain of
dust particles from outer space for a very long time, probably
from the beginning of the solar system.
From all this evidence it is clear that there are an enormous
number of pieces of material in the solar system. There are
planets, moons, asteroids, comets, boulders, and rocks of all
sizes. There are huge numbers of objects the size of grains of
sand and particles of dust. There are also many separate atoms
and molecules of different kinds of gases.
This does not mean that outer space is crowded. The vol-
ume of the solar system is so great that the chance of a rock,
or even a sand-size particle, hitting one of our manned space


56  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 5,6, Saturn's rings are composed of huge numbers of different sizes of dust,
larger particles, rocks, and boulders, all orbiting the planet. (National Aeronautics and
Space Administration)

ships is extremely small. At theft very high speeds (many miles
a second) the impact of a sand-size bit of material could dam-
age a spaceship and lead to the death of the astronauts inside.
Fortunately that has not yet happened, but it is always a danger.
On earth we are well protected from damage by our 50-
mile thick atmosphere that stops all but the larger rocks that
come from outer space.

EVER-GROWING KNOWLEDGE

What began as a startling observation of rocks falling from
the sky near the town of Laigle in 1803 has led astronomers
to a much deeper understanding of our earth and solar system.
It has also provided important information about events that
occurred billions of years ago.
Today, such information, based on observations, plays an
important part in theories about how the solar system was
formed about four and a half billion years ago. Astronomers
have good evidence that the solar system began as a huge cloud


How New Facts Are Discovered 57

Figure 5.7. in 1910 Halley's comet produced this enormous tail of gases and dust more
than a hundred million miles long. It stretched across one-sixth of the sky. When the
comet returned in 1986, a space probe sent from earth revealed a peanut-shaped "head"
composed of rock and frozen gases about 8 miles long. (Mount Wilson Observatories,
Carnegie institute of Washington)

of gas and dust in space that was pulled together by the force
of gravity. Our own earth was probably formed in this way
from the dust and rocks that fell into the growing mass. The
knowledge gathered about meteors and meteorites since the fall
of rocks in Laigle in 1803 is an important part of that evidence.
We see in the history of our knowledge about meteorites
an example of the way science grows, fact by proven fact. Dis-
covery of one new fact often leads to discovery of others. This
accumulation of experience and knowledge enables many thou-
sands of modern scientists to increase our ability to solve
problems that constantly arise in our world.
This scientific way of thinking is widely applied in
engineering, industry, and medicine. It is increasingly applied
to economics and the social and political sciences.
Today we have entered an information age in which knowl-
edge has become power. Those who know how to use the scien-
tific way of thinking, and therefore know how to get new in-
formation and use it properly, are the ones who will create new
inventions and solve the difficult problems of our time.
As we shall discuss in chapter 10, there have also been
some harmful results of such use of knowledge. One of the big
problems of our time is to find ways to use our knowledge wisely
to create a better world. Perhaps you will play a role in this
important task.


58  Part Two: Science as a Way ol~ Thinking

THE MAIN IDEAS IN SCIENTIFIC THINKING

1. Facts must be based on accurate, carefully checked
observations, verified by many people. These are the main ideas
in scientific thinking that make it so superior to the kind of
fairy-tale thinking upon which superstition is based.
2. Scientists use imagination, as well as logical reasoning
to build on the facts they have. They make hypotheses:
reasonable guesses as to possible explanations for what we
observe. But these hypotheses are not considered to be true until
supported by very strong evidence.
3. Experiments are often designed to get new observations
to test hypotheses.
4. Scientists are open-minded about new ideas, but also
reasonably skeptical about accepting them as true too quickly.
History is full of examples when people thought they were
absolutely fight about facts and theories that later were shown
to be wrong.

The scientific way of thinking has meant much more to our
society than just the gathering of facts about our environment.
During the past 500 years it has deeply affected the way people
think about many things, including the way their governments
operate.
Science has played an important role in the establishment
of democracy in our nation and in many others in the world.
How that happened is discussed in the next chapter.


6

Science and Freedom of Thought

Get into your time machine and go back 2,000 years. Imagine
that you are observing the sun in the sky with an astronomer
of that time. At dawn you see the sun appear to rise in the
eastern sky and then go higher and higher until noon. Then
it seems to move lower and lower in the afternoon, setting in
the west in the evening.
Your ancient astronomer friend says, "I've watched this
happen for many years. From these observations it is clear that
the sun always moves in the sky from east to west. Someone
with enormous power must be making it move. Only a god
could do that. We believe it is Apollo, the god in charge of the

SUll.
"Some people say that he pulls it with his magical chariot,
but I really don't know about that. All I know is that he gets
the job done. Since we are not gods, we will never know how
Apollo does it. It's not a problem for me, so I don't lose any
sleep over it."
This explanation upsets you because you learned in school
that it is not true, so you say, "Excuse me for differing with
you, but no god is pulling the sun. The sun only seems to rise
and set. Actually, we live on a huge, round, ball-shaped earth
that rotates on its axis once a day. The earth's rotation gives
us the illusion that the sun is moving when it really is not.
It's like being on a merry-go-round and seeing everything else
go around us, when we are really rotating with the earth."
The astronomer stares at you for a moment and says, "A
very clever theory. But you and I both saw the sun move up

59


60  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

from the east in the morning. We watched it move across the
sky all day, and then go down below the horizon in the evening.
Are you doubting what you actually see?
"Besides, we know that the earth is enormous. The known
part of the earth stretches for thousands of miles from here
in every direction. If, as you say, it is rotating once a day, this
means that its surface must be moving at enormous speed fight
now to complete that big turn. It might have to move a thousand
miles an hour. We don't feel that impossible motion. So, your
theory is obviously wrong."
This stumps you because you never thought about it before.
Now that this enormous speed is brought to your attention,
it does seem strange that you don't feel that thousand-mile
an-hour motion.
"Furthermore," he continues, "about this crazy idea of a
round earth. See that lake over there. Can't you see that it is
perfectly flat?
"Look. I'll make a diagram to show you." (Figure 6.1) "Here's
some water in the ocean, at A. If the earth is round then all
its water would flow downward, away from the top, and finally
fall off the sides of the earth. It has to disappear somewhere,
perhaps in Hades. But we don't see the water in the lakes and
oceans moving that way. That proves your theory is wrong.
"And here is a man walking around the earth. When he
gets to B he would be sliding downhill all the way, and probably
also land in Hades.
"What about this poor man at the bottom of the earth, at
C? How long could he hang on without also going to Hades?"
Your eyes light up triumphantly. "No. No. Gravity will pull
everybody towards the center of the earth and also keep water,
people, and everything else from falling off."
"Gravity?... Who is he? How does he do that?"
"Gravity is not a person," you reply. "Gravity is an invisi-
ble force that pulls everything down towards the center of the
round earth."
The ancient astronomer replies, with a tone of voice as
though he thinks you are pretty stupid. "How does this god,
this Mr. Gravity, do this? Does it pull people with ropes? Do
you see or feel any ropes pulling you down?
"Suppose I put a ten-foot-thick stone between me and the
earth. Shouldn't that thick stone block whatever Mr. Gravity
tries to do in pulling me down? Shouldn't I then feel lighter,


Science and Freedom of Thought 61

C

Figure 6,1, It was reasonable for people in olden times to think that a round earth
is impossible. How could people, water, and ships keep from sliding off into Hades?
It was very difficult to prove that an extremely mysterious "force of gravity" pulls everything
toward the center of the earth. (Drawing by Albert Sarney)

maybe float in the air? You want me to believe that this pull,
this gravity or whatever, passes fight through solid rock with-
out being stopped?"
At this point it dawns on you that you really do not fully
understand this peculiar theory about the force of gravity in
a round, rotating earth, something you were taught in school.
You accepted this idea at school without thinking deeply about
it. This reminds you of the way young children accept the story
of Santa Claus without being puzzled by any of its contra-
dictions.
Your talk with the ancient astronomer makes you realize
that people in olden times were not so stupid when they thought
the earth was fiat and did not move. You also begin to under-
stand that if you had lived long ago you, too, would have


62  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

considered anyone a bit crazy to insist that what you see and
feel is really not so.
In olden times, when there were no airplanes or satellites
that go around the world, it was very difficult to prove that
the earth is round and moves around the sun. That's why it
took so long to discover the true nature of the solar system,
and centuries more until most people were convinced it was true.
Today it is easy to prove that the earth is shaped like a
ball. Just look at the photograph of our round earth, on the
front cover of this book, taken from a satellite far out in space.
Many airplanes have traveled around the world by constantly
heading west, or east. If we make a telephone call at noon to
India, on the opposite side of the earth, we find that it is mid-
night there. Such observations prove that the earth is round.
By far the best evidence that the earth and planets revolve
around the sun comes from the amazingly accurate predictions
astronomers now make about events involving the sun and
planets. They measure orbits of the earth, moon, and planets
with great precision, then predict, years in advance, exactly
when and where eclipses will occur, and how long they will
last. These predictions are accurate to a fraction of a second.
We have sent spaceships to the moon and many planets
on journeys that could not have been made without precise
calculations that take into account the forces of gravity of the
sun, earth, moon, and planets. For example, in 1977, scientists
sent Voyager II on a twelve-year journey to fly past the planets
Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, all hundreds of millions
of miles away. Voyager II passed near each planet on schedule
and reached Neptune, the last planet on its trip, within four
minutes of the time planned by scientists twelve years before!
This is extremely strong evidence that our facts and theories
about gravity and motion are true.

THE DANGEROUS IDEA OF A MOVING EARTH

In 1492 Columbus sailed to America and found a new continent.
His ships did not fall over the edge of a fiat earth, as many
had feared. This fact cast doubt on the old theory of a fiat earth.
Then Magellan sailed completely around the earth by head-
ing mostly west. The fact that sailing mainly in one direction
brings a ship back to its starting place was strong evidence,


Science and Freedom of Thought 63

based on observations, that the earth is round.
When the Polish scientist Nicholas Copernicus proposed the
theory that the earth revolves around the sun, this idea was
much more difficult to prove, and even harder to accept.
It was also more dangerous for scientists to declare that
they believed it true because the idea of a non-moving earth
had become an important part of religious belief in Europe.
People firmly believed that God had created the earth as the
center of the universe, just for the benefit of people.
The Copernican theory shifted the center of the solar system
to the sun. The other planets became equals with the earth
because all of them revolve in orbits around the most-important
sun. The earth was no longer the center of the universe.
Copernicus knew that his theory contradicted religious belief
of that time and that to publish it would be considered heresy,
the crime of differing in religious beliefs, punishable by burning
at the stake. For that reason he delayed publication of his book
until after his death in 1543.
However, some scholars read the book, became interested in
his theory, and began to discuss it. Religious leaders of that time
acted to suppress such discussion. In 1593 Giordano Bruno was
imprisoned because he wrote books that favored the Copernican
theory. He was found guilty of heresy by judges of the dreaded
"Inquisition" and, in 1600, was executed by burning at the stake.
One of Brano's "dangerous" ideas was that the stars were
not on a fixed dome that revolved around the earth, as was
believed at the time. He suggested that the stars are separate,
bright objects, extending far off in space in every direction.
Today we know this idea is also true. So Bruno was executed
for having correct ideas.
Brano's execution discouraged discussion by others and
made them more cautious. But it did not stop scientists from
continuing their observations of the skies.
In 1609, nine years after Bruno was executed, the Italian
scientist Galileo Galilei heard about a Dutch invention of a
telescope. He quickly put together some lenses to make one of
his own and used it to observe the sun, moon, planets, and
stars in the sky. By greatly magn'ffying the images of the sun,
moon, planets, and stars, the telescope made details visible that
no one had ever been able to see. This opened up the view of
an astonish'rag universe that no one at the time could even
have imagined.


64  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

WHAT GAI ,ILEO'S TELESCOPE REVEALED

For the first time people could see that those smudgy markings
on the moon were really mountains, valleys, fiat plains, and
huge craters. Galileo was even able to estimate the heights of
the mountains from their shadows. People could observe that
the surface of the moon was similar to that of the earth.
Galileo's telescope also revealed dark spots on the sun that
slowly moved around it, day after day. (Figure 6.2) If a huge
body like the sun could rotate on an axis, why couldn't the
earth also do so, as Copernicus claimed?
Gallleo was surprised to see that the planet Venus often
appeared with a crescent shape. (Figure 6.3) This shape is seen
only if a moon or planet is closer to the sun than the earth.
Only then do we see that most of its circular shape is dark.
We then see only the narrow illuminated portion as a crescent.
This observation confirms the prediction by Copernicus that

Figure 6.2. Galileo observed "sunspots" that moved from day to day, revealing that
the sun rotated on an axis. If the sun rotated, why not the earth? (U.S. Naval Observatory)


Science and Freedom of Thought 65


66  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 6,4, Note the four small moons of Jupiter (two in the upper left corner of this
photograph, and two in the lower right corner.) They line up closely with Jupiter's equator,
marked by the bands of clouds that encircle it. This system of moons greatly resembles
a small solar system. (Lick Observatory, University of California at Santa Cruz)

the orbit of Venus is closer to the sun than that of the earth.
Galileo observed the planet Jupiter as a disk. There also
seemed to be four small "stars" nearby, all in an approximately
straight line with the planet. (Figure 6.4)
To Galileo's great surprise, the next night those four little
"stars" had all changed position. This was an astonishing
observation for that time because no stars had ever before been
observed to move from their positions in the sky, which people
imagined to be a fixed dome. Yet here were "stars" moving.
Night after night Galileo drew careful diagrams of the
changing positions of these little "stars." It soon became clear
to him that he was observing moons revolving around Jupiter!
He measured the time it took for each moon to complete a
revolution around Jupiter. As with the planets revolving around
the sun, the moons farthest from Jupiter moved most slowly
and took the longest time to complete one revolution.
For many people that was the most convincing evidence
for the Copernican theory. They could observe in Jupiter a smaller
model of the solar system, with its moons actually revolving


Science and Freedom ol~ Thought 67

Figure 6.5. This telescopic view of a small section of the Milky Way reveals many
details not observed with the unaided eye, especially the vast numbers of stars. Do you
see any evidence for dark clouds in space? (Yerkes Observatory, University of Chicago)

around the planet, just as planets revolve around the sun.
Galileo's telescope also revealed about ten times as many
stars as seen with the unaided eye. He observed the Milky Way
to be far more crowded with stars than other parts of the sky.
(Figure 6.5) This observation was strong evidence for Bruno's
idea that the stars were not just attached to a dome around
the earth, but were a vast number of separate stars, extending
very far out into space.
Old ideas in closed minds die hard. The religious authorities
of that time refused to accept this powerful evidence that proved
them wrong. They ordered Galileo to stop writing and speaking
in favor of the ideas of Copernicus and Bruno.
Galileo waited many years, but then, in 1632, he published
a book about theories ~f the solar system. To avoid punishment
for heresy he tried to disguise his views by writing the book
as a "dialogue" between two people, for and against the Coper-
nican theory.
No one was fooled. The arguments for the earth revolving
around the sun were so much more convincing than for a non-
moving earth that everybody could tell that Galileo really
believed in the Copernican theory.
As happened with Bruno, GaVfieo was brought to trial for


68  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

heresy. The judges of the Inquisition found him guilty and he
was imprisoned for the rest of his life. He was probably saved
from execution only by his great fame as a scientist.
Gallleo was open-minded and drew logical conclusions from
facts that he actually observed. Facts based on observations
meant little or noth'mg to the judges of the Inquisition. To them
it was most important to stop anyone from spreading any ideas
that challenged what the authorities believed to be true. They
imagined that if a fact contradicted their beliefs then the fact
had to be wrong! They really had no notion of what a scientific
fact is.
This persecution of Galileo did not stop his ideas from
rapidly spreading throughout the world. With the aid of Galileo's
remarkable new instrument, the telescope, scientists in many
countries kept gathering observations and drawing conclusions.
In time, the ever-increasing evidence for a Copernican solar
system established it as today's proven fact.
Many old ideas are true, so it is important that they be
taught to young people and learned by them. But the big lesson
from the persecution of Bruno and Gallleo for their new ideas
is that some old ideas may be wrong.
When new, observed facts are discovered that contradict
the old ideas, we must view them with open minds. We have
to seek more evidence until a proper judgment can be made
as to whether or not the new ideas are true.

USING INSTRUMENTS TO HELP GATHER FACTS

In 1609 Galileo's telescope was one of the first of many mod-
ern instruments that have made today's world possible. It
greafiy enlarged our view of the universe and our place in it.
Modern telescopes, far more powerful than the one used
by Galileo, enable us to observe a fascinating variety of ob-
jects in the distant universe. We know now that there are hun-
dreds of billions of galaxies, each with many billions of stars.
(Figure 6.6).
There are gigantic clouds of gas and dust in space. Increas-
ing evidence shows that new stars are forming in some of these
clouds. With the aid of a color-measuring instrument called a
"spectroscope" we can analyze what is happening in stars that
exploded long ago, hurling gases into space. (Figure 6.7) We


Science and Freedom of Thought 69

Figure 6.6. Modern telescopes reveal billions of very distant galaxies of many shapes
and sizes. This spiral-shaped galaxy contains more than 100 billion stars. (Mount Palomar
Observatory, California Institute of Technology)

can even show that the universe is expanding and probably
began with a "Big Bang" about 15 to 20 billion years ago.
The development of photography during the past century
has been extremely useful in sdence because it permanenfiy cap-
tures images of what we observe at a moment in time. Then
scientists can carefully study those observations, long afterward.
At the same time that Galileo made a telescope from two
lenses, he also put them together in a different way to make
a microscope. Although he did not do much with this new in-
strument, it was used by others to peer into the world of small
things.
This new instrument also led to the discovery of remarkable
new information, mainly in biology. Scientists soon discovered
that tiny cells were the building blocks for all life. They observed
such cells in every part of plants and animals, each doing a
different job to make the entire organism work properly.
Scientists also discovered tiny one-celled plants and ani-
mals. It took another two centuries for them to show that some
kinds of these tiny organisms could cause deadly diseases. From
such discoveries we learned how to control many diseases and


70  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 6,7. Astronomers have evidence that this "nebula" (cloud of gases and dust
in space) was produced by the explosion of a star many thousands of years ago, (Mount
Wilson and Palomar Observatories)

to double the average length of life.
Today an immense variety of new instruments enables us
to accurately observe and measure many quantities, such as
length, weight, mass, force, time, pressure, speed, electric cur-
rent, magnetism, light, color, and much more. Instruments have
made it possible to observe invisible radiation, such as x-rays,
infrared and ultrav/olet rays, and radio waves.
Such instruments provide today's scientists with an enor-
mous body of factual knowledge, based on observations, that
could not have been imagined in Galileo's time. Engineers have
used this knowledge to create today's giant industries. Physi-
cians use this knowledge to prevent and cure diseases, prolong-
ing life.
Special measuring instruments are also important in aiding
our senses to know what is going on inside complex machines.
A car has just a few of these instruments on the dashboard.
An airplane pilot may have many more that give him vital
information about the temperature of each engine, the air pres-
sure above the wing, the speed of the airplane, the direction
in which he is heading, the amount of fuel, and lots more. He
can tell instantly when something goes wrong in a remote part


Science and Freedom of Thought 71

of the airplane, and can usually make adjustments to prevent
accidents.

NEW WAYS OF THINKING

Besides the important facts of science and the many inven-
tions it has made possible, science has also given us a better
way of thinking.
The sacrifices that Bruno, Gallleo, and many others made
to break through the brutal, closed-minded thought-control of
the Inquisition were not in vain. They showed the world that
authorities in power can be very wrong in what they insist
are facts.
Science has also helped to diminish ignorance. We noted
what terrible things ignorance could do in the Salem witch tri-
als when the minds of people were poisoned by superstition.
Our Founding Fathers learned these lessons well when they
created our Constitution and wrote the Bill of Rights in 1789.
They put into the basic law of our land the ideas of freedom
of thought, speech and religion, and democratic rights. These
ideas have become an ideal for most of the world.
Freedom of thought does not guarantee that everyone will
know what is true or false. Every person has the right to hold
opinions and to make them known to others without being pun-
ished by authorities. But then we also have the responsibility
to try to find out what the facts really are. That is where the
methods of science come into play. They give us important
guidelines for finding out what is true and what is false.

The best way to learn about the scientific way of thinking is to
actually use it. This need not require complicated, expensive equip-
ment. For example, what can you learn from the simple act of
tossing some coins to see if they come down heads or tails?
In the next two chapters you will see how some simple
experiments with coin tosses can lead to very surprising re-
sults. They will help you to understand why we should expect
very unusual events to happen to people. And such experiments
have also led to the discovery of facts that are now the basis
of our huge insurance industry.



7

Developing a Theory: Probability

One day, wh'fie playfully tossing a coin, you suddenly wonder
if the chance of getting heads or tails really is 50-50. Are half
the number of tosses really heads and half tails?
At this stage all you have is a simple problem that arises,
as most real problems do, from some observations whfie toss-
ing coins.
Posing that problem required some imagination. Your dog,
Sparky, would never think of it. But we humans have this
unusual ability to think deeply, to play with ideas.
Your powerful ab'fiity to reason logically now comes into
play. You examine both sides of the coin. They appear to be
much the same, except for the picture stamped on it. So your
reasoning leads you to think it equally likely for the coin to
come down heads or tails. You make the hypothesis (reason-
able guess at a possible fact) that half the number of tosses
should be heads and half tails.
This hypothesis is not yet a fact, but only a possible fact
that must still be tested. Many hypotheses turn out to be wrong.
So, consider your hypothesis to be just the start towards es-
tablishing a fact.
The main way of testing a hypothesis in science is with
experiments. In the case of tossing a coin the experiment is
much easier than for most situations in life. Just toss a coin
a number of times and observe what happens. There seems
to be nothing to it, but note what happens when you actually
start tossing a coin.
Suppose you decide to start with 10 tosses. Your hypothesis

73


74  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

predicts that in 10 tosses you should get 1/2 x 10 tosses, or 5
cases of heads, and 5 tails. Is that true? The way to find out
is to try it and observe the outcome for tossing a coin 10 times.
You do this, but are disappointed when only 3 heads and
7 tails are observed. You expected 5 of each. Does this mean
your hypothesis is wrong? Not yet. It's too soon to give up.
Continue tossing the coin for another trial of 10 tosses.
Suppose that this time you observe 6 heads and 4 tails. Now
you have a problem. Which is it, 3 heads out of 10, or 6 out
of 107
Aha! A new idea pops into your fertile brain. Your myste-
rious intuition is at work producing fruitful new thoughts.
Perhaps 10 or 20 tosses are too few to get good information
about how often a coin comes down heads. So, you decide to
combine the results of the two trials.
You now have a total of 10 + 10, or 20 tosses. If your
hypothesis is right you should get half to be heads, or 10. There
were 3 heads for the first trial of 10 tosses and 6 for the sec-
ond. That's 9 heads in 20 tosses, a bit better than getting 3
out of 10 when you expected 5. But it still is not exactly the
10 you expected.
Your new idea about increasing the number of tosses is really
a new hypothesis: the greater the number of tosses of a coin,
the more likely it is that you will get half to come down heads.
Your mind instantly grasps the idea that to test the hy-
pothesis you should toss the coin many times. You decide to
keep a careful record of your observations by counting heads
and tails as they occur.
Something very interesting is happening. The new hypoth-
esis, added to the first one, is the beginning of a theory about
probability. Think of a theory as a set of rules that describe
the way events occur in nature. You are on the way to developing
a theory about just one small bit of nature: what happens when
a coin is tossed.
Test the hypothesis by tossing a coin 50 times, then 100,
perhaps 200 times. Does the probability of getting heads (or
getting tails) equal one half?.
This experiment has been done by many people and they
have found that the greater the number of tosses, the greater
the likelihood that the number of heads would be very close
to one half. So we consider it a fact that the probability of
getting heads is one half. This fact is based on observations.


Developing a Theory: Probability 75

THE VALUE OF THEORIES

As you do experiments and observe what happens, your imagi-
nation will cause new thoughts to pop into your head when
you least expect them. Your first experiment with tossing one
coin at a time is likely to grow and push its way into new
kinds of observations.
Suddenly you wonder: What would happen if you tossed
two coins at a time? Would both coins be heads half the time?
One-third? Onefourth? Something else?
Why only two at a time? How about three at a time, or
four, or ten, or twenty? How many times in 100 tosses would
all coins come down heads, or tails, or half heads and half
tails, or some other combination?
Most of the rest of this chapter describes a "Theory of Prob-
ability" that gives us a way to predict the expected results of
tossing coins in different ways. But not only for tossing coins.
It has been found to work for predicting expected numbers of
accidents, fires, deaths, results of card games, motions of atoms
and molecules, chemical reactions, nuclear explosions, opinion
polls, and much more.
Knowledge about this theory is the basis for the huge in-
surance industry and is also essential to all sciences. So, as
you experiment with coin tossing you will be learning about
the important subject of probability.
So, why not continue doing those experiments with toss-
ing coins on your own, as far as you can go, before reading
the rest of this chapter to find out what others have discov-
ered? You will then get an actual experience in developing a
theory all by yourself. You will also see how theories in gen-
eral are developed.
We have theories in the sciences of physics, chemistry, biol-
ogy, astronomy, geology, and in the practical uses of science
such as engineering, architecture, and medicine. We have them
in economics, education, and politics and in every other area
of knowledge.
There are theories about how the universe began, how the
solar system was formed, how continents move, how living
things change, and evolve over time, how wars are started, how
peace may be achieved, how recessions begin, how to end them,
how to educate children, and lots more.
Such theories are a major way for getting new knowledge


76  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

because their many different hypotheses require testing and
experimenting, which lead to new hypotheses, testing, experi-
ments, observing, and reasoning.

THETHEORYOFPROBABILITY

In science and mathematics the word probability is used to
describe the likelihood that some chance event would occur.
For example, if you observe that for 100 tosses of a coin 50
of them came down heads, then the observed probability would
be simply 50 divided by 100, or 1/2, or 0.5.
If an insurance company finds that during one year in a
certain town with 10,000 homes, there were 100 cases of roof
damage from storms, then the observed probability of roof
damage per year is 100 divided by 10,000, or 100/10,000, or
one in a hundred, or 0.01. Most people would describe that
probability as "one chance in a hundred."
Suppose you toss two coins at a time. Before reading fur-
ther use your reasoning ab'dity to predict the probability that
both coins would come down heads at the same time. Make
a hypothesis about what the probability should be. Try it before
you read further.
The two coins fall independently of each other. As one is
falling there is no way it can affect what happens to the other
coin. This is the key to predicting what will happen when both
coins are tossed.
The diagram in Figure 7.1 gives us a way to analyze what
happens. Consider what happens to the "First Coin," as shown
on the first line. There are only two possible outcomes: heads
(H) or tails (T).

        First Coin                            H                  or          T
                                              /\                             /\
        Second Coin                           H or      T                    H or T

          Outcomes                                      HH          HT                       TH          TT

                 (Number)                           I                    2                                   1
                                                    Both                 One Heads                           Both
                                                    Heads                And One Tails                       Tails

Figure 7.1. All possible outcomes for tossing two coins at one time.


Developing a Theory: Probability 77

The second line, marked "Second Coin," shows all the dif-
ferent ways the second coin could fall for each way the first
coin can fall. So the line labeled "Outcomes" shows all the dif-
ferent ways two coins can fall heads or tails when tossed together.
Note the four possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and 2~r. Each
of these outcomes is equally likely. Only one of these four gives
us the "successful" outcome we seek: both coins heads (HH).
So we can see that the probability that two heads will appear
is one out of four, or 1/4, or 0.25.
In 100 tosses of two coins we would expect to see 1/4 x 100,
or 25 cases when both coins are heads.
Try tossing two coins at a time for 100 times. Do you get
exactly 25 cases of both coins coming down heads? Is this
enough to confifm the hypothesis that the probability is 0.25?
How many times should you toss the two coins to get an
exact answer?
A simple way to get many tosses is to have everyone in
a class do the experiment. Then combine all the observations
to get one total for the entire class. How close does your "ob-
served probability" come to what is predicted from Figure 7.17
The chart in Figure 7.1 gives us a way to predict the prob-
ability for any outcome when both coins are tossed. For exam-
ple, what is the probability that both coins would come down
tails? We note in Figure 7.1 that there is only one successful
case in four when both coins come down tails (TT). So the
probability is one divided by four, or 1/4, or 0.25.
This is the same probability as for getting both coins to
come down heads. That makes sense because both sides of a
coin are practically the same, except for the minor detail of
the image stamped on it. So both coming down tails seems
to be as likely as both being heads.
What is the probabfiity of getting one heads and one tails?
When we look at both coins after they have fallen, it doesn't
matter to us which coin came down first and which came down
second. Both cases appear to us to be "one H and one T." Fig-
ure 7.1 shows two such outcomes (HT and TH) in four tosses,
so the probability is 2/4, or 1/2, or 0.5.
There is a quicker way to calculate that the probability of
getting both heads is 1/4. Just multiply the separate probabili-
ties (one-half) that each coin will come down heads. So, for
two coins the probability for both being heads is 1/2 x 1/2,
or 1/4, which is the same as obtained from Figure 7.1.


78  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Why is this so? Only half of the tosses of the first coin
will be heads, and we will get heads for both coins only if the
second coin is also heads when the first coin is heads. So, the
number of cases in which both coins are heads would be one-
half of one-half, 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/4.
All that is theory. But is it really true? The only way to
find out is to test this prediction with an experiment. What
do you find?
With this information you should be able to solve many
problems about tossing more than two coins, on your own.

PROBABILITIES FOR TOSSING
MANY COINS AT ONE TIME

Try these problems. When possible, test your answers with
experiments to see if your predictions are correct. A discussion
of each problem appears at the end of this chapter. Don't peek
until you have first trim to find the answers yourself.
The chart in Figure 7.1 shows all the ways two coins can
fall. You can make similar charts for the other questions, as
needed.

1. Toss three coins together 100 times.

a. How many times would you expect all three coins
to be heads?

b. How many times do you expect two heads and one
tails? (Suggestion: make a chart for three coins like
the one in Figure 7.1.)

2. When four coins are tossed together 100 times:

a. How many times would you expect all four to be
heads?

b. How many times would you expect three heads and
one tails?

c. How many times would you expect the number of
heads to equal the number of tails?

3. If you toss ten coins at one time, what is the probabil-
ity of getting all ten heads? Are you likely to get one
such outcome in 100 tosses of the ten coins?


Developing a Theory: Probability 79

FACTS AND THEORIES

In this chapter you have seen how new knowledge about chance
and probability begins with observations. We think about what
we observe and use our imagination and intuition to develop
hypotheses that might explain what we see. Then we test those
hypotheses with experiments. We reject any hypotheses which
the experiments and observations show to be untrue and keep
only those that are not contradicted by them.
This process leads us to new facts, new hypotheses, new
experiments, and new tests with new observations. Soon we
may have a theory that we think explains some events in the
natural world.
In time, if we find that the theory continues to be applied
without any contradiction by new observations, then the facts
are considered proved. At that point we may refer to such facts
as principles or laws of nature.
Facts, principles, and laws of nature are not absolute. In
other words, we never consider them to be absolutely true. Some
day a new observation, fact, or experiment may contradict a
theory, principle, or law that we thought had been proved. When
that happens, the contradictory fact cannot be ignored.
Sometimes a theory can be changed somewhat to explain
or include the new fact. If that cannot be done, then the the-
ory must be abandoned.
For example, Isaac Newton's Laws of Motion and Law of
Gravitation held sway for several centuries. They were consid-
ered to be absolutely true because of great success in predict-
ing eclipses with precision. Newton's Laws had even been used
to predict where an unknown planet could be found in the sky.
Astronomers found the new planet, Neptune, very close to the
place in the sky where calculations had predicted it would be.
After that remarkable feat most scientists thought Newton's
Laws were absolutely true.
However, in 1887 an experiment by Albert Michelson and
Edward Morley seemed to contradict Newton's Laws. The
mystery was solved by Albert Einstein in 1905 with his Theory
of Relativity. Einstein made a number of predictions to test
his theory, all of which were found to be true.
Newton's Laws of Motion were not abandoned, but the meth-
od of calculation was changed somewhat to take into account
Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Newton's Laws still work very


80  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

well for most situations. But when objects or particles move
at extremely high speeds (many miles per second), Newton's
Laws have to take into account the changes Einstein described
in the Theory of Relativity.
That is the way knowledge in science grows. It is also the
way all howledge must change to adjust to new facts. In-
creasing howledge based on such scientific ways of th'mking
and doing has given us greater power to solve many kinds
of problems. We have applied this howledge in many ways
to give us more control over the environment. We will also have
to apply scientific thinking to solve many problems of our en-
vironment that modern inventions have produced.
In the next chapter you will see how the information about
pmbabfiity, described in this chapter, makes it possible for us to
understand and explain some unusual, rather mysterious rare
events that many people believe are caused by supernatural spirits.
You will see that it is unnecessary to assume a supernat-
ural spirit as the cause for such events. You will also find out
that some very unusual events are actually likely to happen.

DISCUSSION OF QUESTIONS

la. Probability of Three Tossed Coins Being All Heads.
From Figure 7.2 we see that the three coins come down
all heads (HHH) for only one of eight possible outcomes.
Therefore the probability of getting all three heads is
one out of eight, or 1/8. For 100 tosses of three coins
we expect to see 1/8 x 100, or 12.5 cases.

The probability could also have been calculated as:
1/2 ~ 1/2 ~ 1/2 = 1/8

         First Coin                                              H                           or                        T

      Second Coin                H            or     T                  H     or             T
                                 /\                  /\                 /\
         Third Coin                            H or        T              H oY        T              H or        T              H L~r       T

0 u t c o me s            HHH    HHT     HTH    HTT     THH    THT     TTH    TTT

Figure 7.2. All possible outcomes for three coins tossed at one time.


Developing a Theory: Probability 81

The probability of each coin being heads is one-half. The
second coin will be heads for only half of the cases when the
first coin is heads. So for two coins the probability of both being
heads is half of a half, or 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/4.
The third coin will be heads for only half of the cases when
the other two are both heads, or for 1/2 of 1/4, or 1/8. This
is the same as 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2.
You can see that as a coin is added to the group being
tossed the probability of getting all heads is reduced by half.
For four coins tossed at one time the probability that all come
down heads is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/16.

lb. How Many Cases of Two Heads and One Tail? From
Figure 7.2 we see three possible outcomes with two
heads and one tail: HHT, HTH, and THH. So the prob-
ability is 3 out of 8, or 3/8.

2a. Probability That Four Tossed Coins Would Be All
Heads. This has already been discussed in question
la. The probability is 1/2 x 1/2 ~ 1/2 ~ 1/2, or 1/16.

2b. Three Heads and One Tail. Make a chart for four coins
tossed at one time. (Figure 7.3) You can observe four
cases when there are three heads and one tail (HHI-IT,
HHTH, HTHH, and THHH). From the chart you can
count 16 possible ways that four coins could fall.
Therefore the probability of getting three heads and
one tail is 4/16, or 1/4.

2c. Two Heads and Two Tails. From Figure 7.3 you may
observe six outcomes in which there are two heads and

Figure 7.3. Outcomes for four coins tossed at one time.


82  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

two tails (HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, THHT, THTH, and
2'rHH). The total number of possible outcomes is 16.
Therefore the probability of two heads and two tails
is 6/16, or 3/8.

3. Probability of All Heads When Ten Coins Are Tossed.
As explained in problem la, each additional coin in a
group of coins that are tossed at one time reduces the
probability of getting all heads by one-half. So for ten
coins together the probability is 1/2 multiplied by itself
ten times, or: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2
x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/1,024.

This means that we are likely to observe only about one
case of all ten heads in 1,024 tosses of ten coins. This is a rather
rare event. Tossing them only 100 times, about one-tenth as
many as a thousand, is not likely to produce even one case
of all ten heads.
Can you calculate the probability of getting all heads when
20 coins are tossed at one time?


8

Unusual Events, Luck and Chance

Here is the story of an astonishing event that the author of
this book (Mr. R) knows is true because it actually happened

Mr. R dialed the telephone number of his friend Sam. Af-
ter a few rings someone answered the phone.
"Is Sam there?"
"Yes. Just a m'mute. I'll call him."
Sam got on the phone and exchanged greetings with Mr.
R, then asked, "How did you know I was here?"
"Why? Aren't you home?"
"No. I'm at my friend's house."
INCREDIBLE! Mr. R had dialed the wrong number and
reached the person he wanted to talk to, at that wrong nurnber.t
This event is so unbelievable that many people assume it
must have been caused in some supernatural way.

A SUPERNATURAL CAUSE?

An "explanation" based on supernatural magic raises more
questions than it answers. Why would some supernatural be-
ing, or spirit, want to do this? The telephone call was of no
special importance, nobody's life or health depended on it, and
no money was involved. Did the supernatural spirit merely want
to play a prank, perhaps have some fun by watching Mr. R's
surprised expression when he realized what an unusual event
had occurred?

83


84  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

There doesn't seem to be any purpose in having a myste-
rious supernatural spirit make the event happen.
Think about all the facts a supernatural spirit would have
to know, and the many magical powers it must have, to cause
this unusual call to happen.

1. The spirit would have to want Mr. R to dial a wrong
number in just the right wrong way so the call would reach
Sam away from home.

2. The spirit would have to be able to read Mr. R's mind
and know, before the call, that Mr. R wanted to talk to his
friend Sam on the telephone.

3. It would have to know that Sam would not be at home
to receive the call.

4. It would also have to know that Sam would be in a
friend's house at the very moment Mr. R made his call, or it
would have to arrange for Sam to be there, which is even more
miraculous.

5. The spirit would have to know the phone number of Sam's
friend without looking in a telephone book.

6. It would have to get inside Mr. R's brain to direct his
fingers to make the right mistakes to produce the wrong tele-
phone call in the right way.

An "explanation" based on a supernatural spirit requires
more unbelievable things to happen than the unusual event
itselfi Nothing in our experience, and nothing we can observe,
gives us any evidence that anything could have the remark-
able ability to make the electricity in the telephone wires go
to the right place in the wrong way.
Some people might think they are explaining it when they
say it happened because of "luck." This is another way of say-
ing "by chance," but it does not explain how the unusual call
might happen.
Scientists think in a different way. They want to know why
things happen. There is a scientific explanation for what hap-
pened to Mr. R that is based on the theory of probability which
you began to investigate in the previous chapter. To understand
that explanation you need to know more about the fascinating
nature of probability for events that occur by chance.


Unusual Events, Luck and Chance 85

MANY KINDS OF CHANCE EVENTS

From experience with tossing coins you know that we cannot
predict in advance whether a tossed coin will come down heads
or tails. It is an unpredictable event that occurs by pure chance.
However, your experiments with tossing coins have also
shown that we can predict approximately how many heads
or tails to expect when a coin is tossed many times.
There are many other kinds of chance events, each of which
has its own probability of occurrence. For example, if you pick
any card from a full deck of 52 cards the probability of getting
a spade is one-fourth because 13 of the 52 cards, or 13/52, or
oneffourth, are spades.
Suppose you select a card from a full deck, and repeat this
40 times. You are likely to get a spade about 1/4 x 40, or 10
times.
Test that prediction with an experiment. But be sure to re-
turn the selected card each time one is taken from the deck,
otherwise the pack from which you select would no longer have
52 cards. That would change the probability. Also, take cards
from different parts of the deck. Do you get the number of spades
you expected?
Suppose you now decide to look for aces. How many aces
would you expect to get when you pick a card from a full deck
and repeat this 100 times? There are four aces in the deck, so
the probability of picking one from 52 cards is 4/52, or 1/13.
You expect to get 1/13 x 100, or 7.7 (about 8) cards.
Try it. What do you observe?
The probabilities for many kinds of chance events are very
small. For example, in the previous chapter one of the problems
was to calculate the probability of getting all heads when 10
coins are tossed at one time. The answer, as described in the
section at the end of chapter 7, was 1/2 multiplied by itself
ten times, or 1/1,024. In other words, we expect to see only
about one case of all ten heads for 1,024 tosses of ten coins.
An experiment to test this prediction would be very tedi-
ous. However, a computer could be programmed to simulate
(imitate) the chance events for coin tosses, and could quickly
run a test of many thousands.
Being hit by a meteorite is such a rare event that we do
not know of anyone to whom this has happened. The proba-
bility is practically zero, but still, it might happen some day.


86  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Being hit by lightning also has a tiny probab'dity, but not
as small as that for being hit by a meteorite. Yet it does hap-
pen occasionally.
Insurance companies keep careful records of many kinds
of accidents. From this actual experience, based on observations,
they can predict fairly accurately how many illnesses, deaths,
car thefts, fires, car crashes, or home accidents are likely to
occur each year. These figures can be used as "observed proba-
bfiities" to estimate how much should be charged for insurance
to cover the cost of claims, plus profits.
In a simfiar way, Mr. R's unusual telephone call could
happen, so there is a tiny probability that it might happen.
We cannot tell who would make or get such a call, or when
and where it would happen. However, we can estimate how
likely it is to happen to someone in the world sometime in the
future.

EXPLAINING THE UNUSUAL TELEPHONE CALL

Everyone occasionally makes a mistake when dialing or press-
ing the buttons for a telephone call. It makes a big difference
if the mistake is made in the last four digits of a telephone
number, or elsewhere in the number.
If the mistake is in the last four digits then the call reaches
a telephone in the same neighborhood as theperson being called.
Suppose you make a long distance call with a number like
123-456-7890. Dialing the first three digits (123) sends your call
into a large city or region with several million people.
Dialing the second three digits (456) puts your call into a
neighborhood in that city or county. Your call is now narrowed
down to 10,000 people because the four remaining digits only
allow for telephone numbers from 0000, 0001, 0002, 0003... all
the way up to 9999.
So, if Mr. R made a mistake in the last four digits he would
reach one of 10,000 people in Sam's neighborhood.
We will have to make certain reasonable assumptions (facts
assumed to be true) in order to make an estimate of probabilities.
This is permissible so long as we do not forget that these are
assumptions, not actual facts. We may do so because the proba-
bility we calculate will not be used for any practical purpose,
but just to show that it is reasonable to expect Mr. R's kind


Unusual Events, Luck and Chance 87

of unusual call to happen to someone.
Assume that the probability of Mr. R making a mistake
in the last four digits of a telephone call is 1/50. That is, he
is likely to make such mistakes about once every 50 calls. This
is a reasonable assumption because most people would make
such mistakes more often than one call in 50.
A number of different, independent (not connected to each
other) chance events must occur at the same time for Mr. R's
unusual call to happen, as follows:
1. Mr. R dials Sam and makes a mistake in the last four
digits. The probability is assumed to be 1/50.
2. Mr. R's call is now reaching one of 10,000 people in Sam's
neighborhood. Most people will have some friends in the neigh-
borhood whom they visit. Assume that Sam had 10 good friends
in the neighborhood. In that case the probability that Mr. R's
wrong call would reach a friend of Sam is 10 out of 10,000,
or 10/10,000, or 1/1,000.
3. There is a certain small probability that Sam would
happen to be at a friend's house at the very moment Mr. R's
wrong call comes in. Assume that Sam visits these friends in
the neighborhood for a reasonable 9 hours a year.
There are 24 x 365 hours in a year, or 8,760 hours. Since
all of these calculations are approximate, it won't matter much
if we round off the 8,760 hours to about 9,000. In that case
the probability that Sam would happen to be at a friend's house,
at the very moment Mr. R's wrong call comes in, is 9/9,000,
or 1/1,000.
For Mr. R's wrong call to reach Sam, all of these indepen-
dent chance events must occur together. How should we cal-
culate the probability? Recall how this was done for tossing
a number of separate coins. We just multiplied the probabil-
ities of the separate events (separate coins falling.) For exam-
ple, the probability of getting heads when three coins are tossed
at the same time is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2, or 1/8.
So, the probability that Mr. R's call would occur is 1/50
(for making the mistake in the last four digits of the call) times
1/1,000 (probability that the call would reach a friend of Sam
in the neighborhood) times 1/1,000 (probability that Sam would
be at a friend's house when the call comes through.) Or:
1/50 ~ 1/1,000 x 1/1,000, or 1/50,000,000.
In other words we might expect this kind of unusual event
to occur once in about every 50,000,000 (50 mfilion) phone calls.


88  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Whether or not such an unusual call is likely to happen
to someone, sometime, somewhere in the world depends on how
many calls are made. The exact number of calls in the world
is not known. But an official of Nynex, one of the seven big
telephone companies in the United States, has estimated that
they handle about 100 million calls every day!
With 100 million calls every day, and a probability of one
in 50 million for Mr. R's unusual call, you can see that we may
expect such unusual calls to occur in the Nynex system.
There are 365 times as many calls in one year as in one
day. There are also many other telephone companies through-
out the world besides Nynex. Therefore, if our estimate of prob-
ability is correct, there ought to be a number of calls every
year like the one Mr. R made. In other words, such an unusual
call is likely to occur every year to someone, sometime, some-
where in the world! It may actually be happening to many
people each year!
Of course, this assumes that the estimate of probability is
correct. But even if the probability is really a hundred times
smaller, that would not change our conclusion that the event
would occur some time.

NO NEED FOR SUPERNATURAL MAGIC

Unusual events are bound to happen because something is
constantly taking place, everywhere on our huge earth, every
moment of every day, year after year. With five billion people
around to observe them, it would be surprising ff some very
unusual things did not happen to some people.
Such an unusual event is likely to happen to you during
your long lifetime. You cannot know in advance what kind of
event it would be, or when and where it would occur. But if
and when it does happen, you will understand how it could
be a chance event, explainable by the theory of probability.
There is no need to assume that it was caused by some
kind of supernatural spirit with magical powers.


Unusual Events, Luck and Chance 89
OTHER KINDS OF UNUSUAL EVENTS

Here are two other examples of unusual events that actually
happened. Use your reasoning power and knowledge of prob-
ability to explain how they could occur. Then read the "Dis-
cussion of Questions" at the end of this chapter.

1. An Unusual Horse Race. One day, people at a race track
were startled to see an astonishing finish for one of the events
that had seven horses. The horse with number i on its saddle
came in first. Horse number 2 came in second. Horse number
3 came in third, and all the others ended up in "consecutive
order": 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
This is a very rare event because the outcome could have
been any combination of seven numbers from i through 7, such
as3,6,2,7,5,1,4, or6,1,7,5,2,4,3.
A photograph of this race appeared some time ago in a
magazine, but is no longer available for this book. However,
Figure 8.1 shows a similar, less rare outcome of a race in which
the horse that came in first had the number I and the horse
that came in second had the number 2.
Can you calculate the probability that the first two horses
in a seven-horse race would cross the finish line in the order
of 1, 2, as shown in Figure 8.1 ?
Can you calculate the probability that seven horses would
cross the finish line in "consecutive order": 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 77
Think about it, then see the "Discussion of Questions" at
the end of this chapter.

2. Winning a Big Lottery Twice. Do you think it possible
for someone to win a big, million-dollar lottery twice? That seems
so unlikely as to be practically impossible. Yet it has actually
happened to several people! (Figure 8.2)
Can you show that it is reasonable to expect such an un-
usual event to occur to someone, sometime?
Think about it, then see the "Discussion of Questions" at
the end of this chapter.

In this book you have seen that explanations of events by
supernatural magic are not necessary. You have also seen that
scientific ways of thinking, based on observations, experiments,
and logical reasoning give us great power to explain what hap-


90  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 8.1. In this unusual race with seven horses, horse #1 came in first and horse
#2 came in second. Can you explain why we would expect this 1,2 outcome to occur
about once in 42 races with seven horses? (New York Racing Association)

pens in our complicated world.
In the next chapter you will see how that power of scien-
tific thinking has been used during the past few centuries to
greatly increase our knowledge. It has changed the world in
astonishing ways.

DISCUSSION OF QUESTIONS

1. An unusual horse race. As the horses keep crossing the
finish line they leave fewer and fewer horses behind them, still
running the race. For horse #1 in a seven-horse race the prob~
ability that it would come in first is one out of seven, or 1/7.
For horse #2 (with six horses still in the race) the probability
that it would come in second is 1/6.
The probability that both of these independent events would
happen in the same race is therefore 1/7 x 1/6, or 1/42. We
expect about one in 42 races with seven horses to end with
a 1, 2 finish.
For the horses to come in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, the probabil-
ity is:
1/7 x 1/6 x 1/5 x 1/4 ~ 1/3 x 1/2 ~ 1/1, or 1/5,040.
We expect one in 5,040 seven-horse races to end with the


Unusual Events, Luck and Chance 91

Figure 8.2. A woman once won a big lottery twice. This seems miraculous. Many people
think it must have been arranged by supernatural means. Can you explain how such
an extremely unlikely event might be expected to actually happen? (Drawing by Albert
Sarney)

horses in consecutive order: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
There are many races per day, on many days of the year,
on hundreds of racetracks throughout the world. If there are
1,000 races a year with seven horses, in 5 years there would
be 5,000; in 10 years, 10,000. For such long periods of time it
becomes quite likely that the one rare race in 5,040 would occur.
So we should expect it to happen some day. It already has.

2. Winning the Lottery Twice. Assume that, on the average,
a million people buy tickets for each big lottery. Then the prob-
ability that any one person's ticket would be selected as the
winner is one in a million, or 1/1,000,000. This is so small that
it is extremely unlikely for any one particular person to win.
However, most lotteries are conducted every week or month
in many countries on earth. Over the years there have been
many lottery winners, perhaps a few thousand by now.
One woman who actually won twice, and had lots of money
after she won the first lottery, bought 20 lottery tickets every
week, trying to win again. In a year she had bought more than
1,000 tickets. In this way she increased her chances of winning
again by about 1,000 times.


92  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

There are many new lottery winners each year, so their
number keeps increasing. By now there probably are more than
a thousand of them in the world. Some of them are probably
also buying many tickets.
You can see that it is only a matter of time for one of the
thousand or more winners to win again with one of their thou-
sand or so tickets. So we may expect someone, somewhere in
the world, sometime, to win a lottery twice.


9

Science Gives Us Real Knowledge

Get into your time machine and go back to the year 1540 to
visit Nicholas Copernicus in Poland. You find him working on
his theory that the earth revolves around the sun in an orbit.
You tell him the following astonishing story:

In the year 1968 three men, called astronauts, entered an
enormous tube-shaped vehicle as tall as a cathedral. Sudden-
ly, an immense flame shot out from the bottom of the machine
and continued to burn. The vehicle slowly rose into the air,
moving faster and faster, higher and higher. (Figure 9.1)
Soon it was 100 miles up, out of the earth's atmosphere,
in cold outer space. When the flame stopped, a large section
of the spacecraft separated and wandered off. A smaller section,
with the three astronauts, coasted toward the moon 240,000
miles away at a speed of more than 20,000 miles an hour!
The astronauts never felt that speed. In fact, they were able
to float calmly in the air of the cabin. To move forward in any
direction they merely pushed backwards against any surface.
Several days later, as they approached the moon, a flame
at one end of the spacecraft was turned on, hot gases shot out
and the astronauts maneuvered to go into orbit. The spacecraft
continued moving, but now around and around the moon, like
a planet moving in its orbit around the sun.
These precise maneuvers were timed by means of measure-
ments with very accurate instruments and with complicated
calculations made by computers that solve mathematical prob-
lems thousands of times faster than any human.

93


94  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 9.1. Apollo 11 carried three astronauts to the moon, and brought them back
safely. Two of them actually landed on the moon. This was the first of several such
trips, made possible by ever-increasing scientific knowledge. (National Aeronautics and
Space Administration)

Two of the astronauts entered a small "lunar lander" that
was released and slowly separated from the main spacecraft.
(Figure 9.2) Then they turned on a flame at one end of the
lander and used it to maneuver to a gentle landing on the moon.
The astronauts got into bulky, enclosed suits, each with its
own air supply. Very heavy weights had been built into the
shoes because the force of gravity is only one-sixth as much
on the moon as on earth. Without those weights strongly hold-


Science Gives Us Real Knowledge 95

Figure 9.2. This photograph shows the "lunar lander" with two astronauts aboard, just
after its release from Apollo 11. Our beautiful earth appears as a large half-moon, just
above the horizon. (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)

ing the astronauts down to the moon, every normal step they
took would have caused them to jump dangerously high.
On earth, 240,000 miles away, hundreds of millions of peo-
ple, watching television sets at home, saw the astronauts walk-
ing about on the moon. (Figure 9.3) They heard the astronauts
describe this strange new world, and even saw what our beau-
tiful, round earth looks like from the moon.
The astronauts spent several days exploring the area, tak-
ing pictures, doing experiments, and gathering rocks.
They began the trip back to earth by turning on the flame
of the lunar lander to lift off from the moon. Then they maneu-
vered it to rejoin the main spacecraft, still moving in orbit. Once
safely aboard, a flame at the back of the spacecraft was turned
on to move it out of orbit around the moon and then head back
to earth at high speed.
Eight days after it had left the earth the spacecraft ap-
proached the earth and was maneuvered into an orbit. The three
astronauts entered a cone-shaped container that was then ejected
from the main spacecraft. It entered the thin upper atmosphere
at a glancing angle, more than 50 miles from the Pacific Ocean


96  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 9.3. Astronaut Aldrin sets up an experiment on the moon. Note the bulky suit,
needed to maintain air supply and proper temperature on the airless, cold moon. (National
Aeronautics and Space Administration)

below, at the enormous speed of about five miles a second.
It was more than a hundred miles from where it was to
come down in the ocean. However, air resistance gradually
slowed the container until a large parachute could be safely
opened to slow the fall still more. Then it splashed safely into
the vast ocean, bobbed to the surface and floated upright in
the water.
A helicopter from a big ship that had been waiting nearby
quickly flew to the astronauts, hovered above it, and dropped
a rubber boat into the water.
The astronauts put on special garments to prevent new
kinds of germs from being brought back from the moon, then
got into the rubber boat. (Figure 9.4) One by one, the astro-
nauts were lifted into the helicopter and flown to the ship.
They were immediately taken to a special room and re-
mained there for 21 days while scientists made sure that they
had not been contaminated by dangerous germs. After all, this
was the first time people had been on the moon. No one could


Science Gives Us Real Knowledge 97

Figure 9.4. After parachuting into the ocean in a special container, the three astronauts
(Nell A. Armstrong, Michael Collins, and Edwin E. Aldrin, Jr.) put on airtight garments
to be sure no harmful germs were brought back to earth. (National Aeronautics and
Space Administration)

be sure there were no new kinds of germs on the moon, so
precautions had to be taken. The three astronauts were hailed
as heroes for the first visit to the moon by humans.

Copernicus would probably have thought your true descrip-
tion of these actual events to be a "fairy tale." He would have
considered the following facts either impossible or incredible:

ú Rocket motors produce enormous flames and forces that
can propel spaceships carrying people to the moon, 240,000
m'fies away, and then return them to earth safely.

ú Astronauts in space suits can safely walk on the moon
where there is no air.

ú Television enables millions of people to see and hear
events on the moon, 240,000 miles away.

ú Computers rapidly solve very complicated mathematical
problems that no human could do, with astonishing speed.


98  Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

ú People can travel at speeds of thousands of re'ties an hour
without feeling any motion.

ú People float in midair in a spaceship when the rocket
motor is shut off.

ú On the moon we weigh one-sixth as much as on earth.

ú Cameras can take pictures that show details far more
exactly than the best artists can draw.

ú People in a closed container can safely fall to earth from
outer space by using a parachute.

ú We are able to accurately calculate in advance where as-
tronauts returning from outer space would parachute to
earth.

ú A ship can navigate so accurately that it can find its
planned place in mid-ocean near where the astronauts
are expected to fall to earth.

ú We have flying machines called helicopters that can take
off from a ship, carry a rubber boat for three men in the
ocean, hover in midair, pick up the men, then safely bring
them back to a ship.

ú Tiny creatures called 'germs', so small they cannot be seen
with the unaided eye, can cause disease.

You would have had great difficulty answering the many
questions Copernicus might have asked. If he believed you, he
would surely have wondered, "How did people learn to make
spaceships that could take people to the moon and bring them
back safely? How did they learn to do all that in only 430 years?"

"STANDING ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS"

Space flight, as well as our modern way of life, would not have
been possible without the knowledge we have obtained from
many discoveries by thousands of scientists.
Consider the great contribution made by just one scientist,
Isaac Newton. By 1687 he had worked out his Laws of Mo-
tion, Law of Gravitation, and a special kind of mathematics
called "calculus." No space flight could be made today without


Science Gives Us Real Knowledge 99

using his discoveries about forces, motions, and how they may
be calculated.
This knowledge enables space scientists to compute with
great accuracy the forces and motions produced by rocket mo-
tors, the effects of gravity on the earth and moon, and the speed
and direction of motion needed for spaceships to go into orbit
or reach the moon.
For that matter, no large bridge, tall building, spaceship,
car, airplane, radio, or television set could have been designed,
built, or produced without knowledge of Newton's laws and
calculus.
Newton thought of himself as "standing on the shoulders
of giants." It was possible for him to make new discoveries
about motion only because of the knowledge he obtained from
earlier scientists like Galileo and others who had investigated
the way objects fall.
Johannes Kepler was another scientific "giant" who had
shown that the orbits of planets are not perfect circles, but oval
shapes called "ellipses." This idea, too, played an important
part in Newton's discoveries.
Copernicus had contributed the modern idea of our solar
system with planets in orbit around the sun. Newton needed
to know this to work out his laws of motion and of gravitation.
Further back in time there were many astronomers who
gave us important knowledge about the sun, moon, and planets.
Copernicus, Kepler, and Newton could not have made their
discoveries without that information.
Many people who were not scientists also contributed to
modern space flight. Johannes Gutenberg invented a method
of printing that made it possible to produce the books that
gave Newton the knowledge he needed to make his discover-
ies. Others, much further back in time, had invented writing,
reading, pen, ink, and paper.
Still others invented machines and materials of many kinds
that made it possible to produce spacecraft, instruments, and
computers without which trips to the moon would have been
impossible.
Everybody needs food and shelter to stay alive. So scien-
tists and inventors could not have done their work without the
many people, past and present, who found new ways to grow
and harvest crops, breed new varieties of plants and animals,
transport food, build houses, or make clothing. All contributed,


100 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

not only to space flight, but to building our civilization.
Modern civilization would not be possible without schools
to transmit the knowledge of the past to our young people.
What took a great scientist years to discover is often quickly
taught and learned by today's students. Most of the factual
knowledge in any modern science textbook would have as-
tonished Copernicus, Galileo, and Newton. Yet many students
take that wealth of precious knowledge for granted.
Such knowledge does not make young people great scien-
fists. But what they learn today does give them the opportu-
nity to"stand on the shoulders of giants" and make their own
contributions to knowledge some day.
All of us stand on the shoulders of giants. Every bit of food
we eat, the clothes we wear, the houses we live in, and any-
thing else we know how to make or do today would not be pos-
sible without the knowledge given to us by people who lived
in the past. We must be ever grateful to the many thousands
of people, past and present, who made it all possible.
What part of these great accomplishments has been con-
tributed by the superstitious way of thinking? Absolutely noth-
ing. The belief in fairy-tale magic has blocked attempts to
explain how and why things happen. Today it is a lazy person's
excuse to avoid thinking about why things happen.
Not until many of us learned how to use scientific ways
of thinking was it possible to greatly improve everyday life,
as well as go to the moon.
Unfortunately, we have not yet learned how to fully use
our knowledge properly. Wars can now be far more destruc-
tive than before. Too many people in the world still starve to
death. Pollution is increasing and the environment is being se-
verely damaged.
Scientific ways of thinking can help solve many of today's
problems. The next chapter discusses some of these problems
and suggests ways they may be solved.


10

Science: Past, Present, and Future

The next time you meet with your class at school think about
this: If your classmates had been living around the year 1500,
about one-third of them would not have survived their first
decade of life. Most people died before the age of thirty, mainly
of diseases that are easily prevented or cured today.

THE PAST

In those days physicians knew practically nothing about what
caused most diseases. They had very few medicines that worked.
None were available to ease severe pain. They could not repair
broken bones properly. To save lives they often amputated arms
and legs, without anesthetics. People knew nothing at all about
germs, viruses, vitamins, or minerals.
Physicians did not know that the blood is circulated through
the body by the pumping action of the heart. They were not
even aware that washing hands was important in preventing
disease.
Farming was very difficult because there were no tractors
to plow the earth or harvest crops. There were no trucks or
trains to bring food to people in distant cities. Most people had
to be farmers because families could produce only slightly more
than enough food for their own needs.
Horses or oxen were used for some jobs, but most hard
physical work had to be done by human labor. There were sim-
ple devices for producing some kinds of goods by hand, but

101


102 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

this required a lot of time and effort. People often had to sew
their own clothing and even make their own thread and cloth.
To survive they usually had to work from sunrise to sunset.
Most young children had to work hard to help provide food
and shelter for the family. Schools or tutors were available only
for the wealthy. Most people never learned to read and write.
Books, magazines, and newspapers were not readily avail-
able because printing was not invented until 1447. Before that
time books had to be handwritten, word by word, page by page.
As a result, people knew very little about the world beyond
their own towns.
Most people never traveled more than a few miles from
where they were born because walking was the only way they
could go anywhere. Only a few of the wealthy could afford
horses or fide in bumpy, horse-drawn carriages, often on un-
paved, muddy roads.
There were no telephones, so communication with other
areas was difficult and slow. Even sending or receiving a let-
ter was a problem because few people could read or write. Let-
ters had to be carried by men on horseback or in horsedrawn
carriages.
So, when anyone talks about the "good old days" don't be
misled. I ,~t'e was very difficult for most people, and their lives
were usually short. Kings and queens of old would have en-
vied the way most people live in our country today.
Then, after about 1500, came the modern science that
replaced superstition and gave us reliable facts about nature
and our world. This knowledge was quickly put to use by many
inventors to create industries that transformed the world.

SCIENCE HAS GIVEN US A MUCH BEVrER LIFE

You are very fortunate to live at a most unusual time in his-
tory, in a country where very efficient methods of producing
food and providing medical care keep most people alive and
well long enough to reach old age in good health.
Nutritious food of astonishing variety is plentiful for most
people in our country, but unfortunately, not for people who
are poor or homeless.
In our nation, only one person in fifty is needed to work
on farms, producing enough food for everybody else. Many kinds


Science: Past, Present, and Future 103

Figure 10.1. A stream of grain pours from the spout of this gigantic harvesting machine.
It does the work of hundreds of people. (John Deere Co.)

of powerful machines are available, each replacing the hard
physical labor of many hundreds of people. (Figure 10.1)
We now have many large factories that produce huge quan-
rifles of a wide variety of different products. Most of the physi-
cal work is done by complex machines moved by electric mo-
tors. Thousands of different materials for industry and personal
use are readily available that were not known before.
For energy we have fuels like oil, coal, and gas, as well as
nuclear power and hydropower (water power). They move our
cars, trucks, trains, tractors, ships, airplanes, and spaceships.
They produce our marvelous electricity that operates motors to
move machines in factories and appliances in our homes.
We can instantly communicate by telephone with people
throughout the world. Millions of people can all see and hear
events across the continent in their television sets at home.
We can visit places a hundred miles away by riding in cars
or buses for just a few hours. In only five hours we can fly
in airplanes across our wide continent, or go to any country
in the world in less than a day. We can even send people to
the moon and get them back safely.


104 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

BUT THERE ARE MANY HARMFUL EFFECTS

The scientific discoveries that have led to longer and better life
have also led to the invention of immensely destructive weap-
ons, especially nuclear bombs that could destroy civilization. To-
day's chemicals, fuels, pesticides, fertilizers, and wastes from
many products pollute air, water, and soil.
The large quantities of goods we manufacture, then dis-
card, end up as huge amounts of wastes that are rapidly fill-
ing garbage dumps and polluting water and soil. We are run-
ning out of space to safely dispose of our mounting wastes.
Increasing carbon dioxide in the air, produced as we bum
immense amounts of fuels for energy, could cause "global warm-
ing." It is likely to produce harmful changes in climate, per-
haps gradually flooding coastal cities as the warmed water in
the oceans expands and the earth's ice caps melt.
The protective ozone layer high in the atmosphere could
be destroyed by the chemicals used in refrigerators and air
conditioners, by gasoline fumes, or by chemicals used in in-
dustry. Such a weakened ozone layer would allow more of the
ultraviolet (sunburn) rays in sunlight to reach the ground and
harm living things, including people.
The gasoline we burn in our cars pollutes the air and causes
acid rain. Electric power plants that burn coal or oil produce
useful electricity, but cause much of the acid rain that destroys
plant and animal life in lakes and forests. Acid rain may also
damage crops on our farms.
Nuclear power plants produce huge quantities of deadly radio-
active materials. If released by accident, they can kill many people
and make large areas of land uninhabitable for many years.
Nuclear power plants also produce dangerous radioactive
wastes that last for many thousands of years. We have as yet
found no sure way to protect future generations from these wastes.
For these reasons nuclear power is not as "clean" as many
people think. It pollutes the environment, but in a different way
than by burning fuels.
Modern medical care has saved many lives and greatly in-
creased the average length of life. But in a number of undevel-
oped countries very high birth rates have caused overcrowding
of the land, destruction of forests, overuse of farmland, and
increasing poverty.
Forests are cut down for firewood, lumber, or paper. Over-


Science: Past, Present, and Future    105

grazing by cattle, sheep, and goats ruins grasslands and cre-
ates deserts. Farming in poor earth leads to erosion (wearing
away) of so'ft. People are now changing the environment so
fast that many forms of l'ffe have been destroyed.
A century ago people did not expect so many harmful ef-
fects from the results of scientific knowledge. People viewed
"science" as all good. Today, however, many people are con-
cerned that the harmful results of applying scientific knowl-
edge may outweigh the good. They wonder ff it would not be
better to go back to the "good old days" when we did not know
so much.
However, the same scientific way of thinking that has re-
placed superstitious thinking, and has given us longer and bet-
ter lives, can also be applied to stop the harmful effects of sci-
ence. How can we do this?

SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE CAN
HELP SOLVE OUR PROBLEMS

So far we have used scientific ways of thinking mainly to get
new knowledge about things: materials (atoms and molecules),
living things, energy (motion, electricity, heat, light, and sound),
the earth, sun, moon, planets, and stars. We divide these stud-
ies into areas of knowledge like biology, physics, chemistry,
geology, and astronomy, and its important uses such as medi-
cine, engineering, and architecture.
Many people have become so expert at getting new scien-
tific knowledge about things that we can now make rapid prog-
ress in solving very difficult problems in industry, engineer-
ing, and medicine. But it has proved much harder to discover
and apply new knowledge about the ideas that cause people
to do things that are now changing the world.
We are now beginning to learn how to do this in new sci-
ences like psychology (how we think and behave); anthropology
(origin and development of humans and their many cultares);
economics (how we produce, distribute, and consume goods); so-
ciology (the study of human society); and political science (how
governments enable us to work together as communities, cit-
ies, states, and nations).
Developing these "people sciences" has been slower than for
the sciences about "things." One reason is that when people are


106 Part Two: Science as a Way ole Thinking

part of an experiment their own ideas, opinions, and different
actions can change the observations others make. This often
changes the conclusions for experiments. And those doing the
experiments are also influenced by their own ideas and opinions.
Just the same, it is important to learn how to get new knowl-
edge in these "people sciences" because everyone has an impor-
tant part in solving the many troubling problems of modern so-
ciety. As an example, consider how people could use scientific
knowledge to solve the important problem of pollution and global
warming caused by the burning of fuels.

AN EXAMPLE: HOW SCIENCE COULD
REDUCE AIR POI .l ,UTION

Our growing problem of air pollution is caused mainly by the
burning of huge amounts of coal and oil in our cars, homes,
and factories. We burn oil and gas to heat our homes; burn
gasoline and diesel fuel for cars, trucks, trains, and ships; and
burn mostly coal for our electric power.
Such burning puts huge amounts of sulfur dioxide and ni-
trogen oxides into the air, causing acid rain that destroys life
in lakes and forests, makes people ill, contaminates soft, ruins
the paint on homes and cars, and even weakens bridges.
Burning of coal, off, and gas also puts carbon dioxide into
the air that traps heat from the sun. This is very likely to make
our globe warmer, thereby causing climate to change, the earth's
ice caps to melt, and the ocean level to rise and flood the coasts.
From our knowledge of science we know a number of ways
to reduce air pollution, and even to practically eliminate it some
day. The two most important ways are: (1) conserving energy
by using it more efficiently (using less energy to do the same
work), and (2) replacing the burning of polluting fuels for ener-
gy with non-polluting sources of energy.

HOW TO CONSERVE ENERGY

Consider some of the ways we could use energy more efficient-
ly so as to bum less fuel and reduce pollution. Better insula-
tion would keep homes cooler in summer and warmer in winter.
There would be less use of fuel and electricity, at lower cost.


Science: Past, Present, and Future 107

We know how to make cars that travel twice as many miles
for a gallon of gasoline than they now do. Fluorescent lights
produce the same amount of illumination as incandescent bulbs
with only one-third the amount of electric power.
Our industries can now manufacture more efficient fur-
naces, air conditioners, water heaters, refrigerators, and other
appliances. Less electricity would be used and power plants
would bum less coal and oil.
More efficient machines and appliances usually save peo-
ple money, even though they may cost somewhat more money
to buy. Costs for fuel and electricity are often reduced so much
that the savings pay for the extra cost of the most efficient
appliance in just a few years. After that the lower costs for
energy save money year after year. At the same time less fuel
is burned for power and this reduces pollution.
Why don't people buy the more efficient appliances that
save money and reduce pollution? Most people do not know
much about energy efficiency. When they buy homes or ap-
pliances, no one informs them how much money they might
be wasting every year in higher costs for energy.
This requires education, not only of students in schools, but
also of adults, especially the law-makers, leaders of industries,
teachers, and reporters for newspapers and television.
We also need to develop ways to take into account the "hid-
den costs" of pollution caused by burning of fuels to supply ener-
gy. An inefficient car that wastes gasoline harms everybody
because of the extra acid rain and global warming it causes.
The use of oil to make gasoline has also become one of
the causes for wars over off fields.
We need to take into account all those large hidden costs
of coal and oil. If people had to pay for the pollution they cause
by wasting energy, they would buy cars that use less gaso-
line, save them money, and reduce pollution.
We use many appliances in our homes that use energy: air
conditioners, refrigerators, water heaters, lights, furnaces, cook-
ing stoves, and electric heaters. All of them ought to have large
labels that inform people about the cost for energy each year.
Buyers could then compare the real cost of the inefficient,
cheaper-to-buy appliances with the more efficient ones and save
money by buying those that waste less energy.
Those inefficient, cheaper appliances could also be taxed
to pay for the extra pollution, illness, and damage they cause.


108 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Then they would no longer seem to be bargains and people
would stop buying them.
Carefully designed laws by our government could also be
used to help people conserve energy. For example, in 1973 there
was an artificial shortage of oil that drove up the price of heat-
ing oil and gasoline to more than ten times what it had been
before. That caused a severe economic recession.
In 1975 our federal government passed a number of laws
to conserve energy and reduce use of oil. One law required auto-
mobile manufacturers to produce cars that burned fewer gal-
lons of gasoline per mile. The automobile companies did not
have to pay any extra tax if they produced efficient cars. But
if they continued to produce energy-wasting cars they had to
pay a large tax on each one they made. Manufacturers quick-
ly produced much more efficient cars and our nation then saved
huge amounts of oil.
Within ten years automobile manufacturers increased the
average mileage per car from about 12 miles per gallon to 27.
As a result, today's cars waste much less gasoline and cause
much less air pollution.
Unfortunately, people became complacent when such ener-
gy-conserving actions caused the price of oil to drop. The gov-
ernment then relaxed its standards and car manufacturers no
longer had to improve gas mileage. People began to buy larger,
heavier, and more powerful cars, which used more gasoline.
The campaign against energy waste almost stopped.
It is now possible for automobile manufacturers to produce
cars that get an average of 40 miles for a gallon of gasoline.
Raising the efficiency standards once again would save enor-
mous amounts of gasoline and greatly reduce air pollution.

NON-POI,LUTING WAYS OF SUPPLYING ENERGY

We can also greatly reduce pollution from burning fuels by
replacing power plants that burn coal and oil with those that
use non-polluting sources of energy. Energy from wind and
sunlight are two forms of energy most likely to replace fuels
in the future.
Windpower is now practical in many places throughout the
world. (Figure 10.2) In the United States there is enough strong
wind in twelve states of the Great Plains of our midwest to


Science: Past, Present, and Future 109

Figure 10.2. Electricity is produced on this "windfarm" by an array of generators that
are made to rotate by the wind. There is no pollution. Cattle can graze on the land around
the wind machines. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co.)

provide all of our nation's electricity. Wind machines could be
placed on many farms with little interference for grazing cattle
and some kinds of crops.
We can produce electricity from sunlight in several ways.
One method uses mirrors to concentrate sunlight, boil water,
and produce steam to operate turbines and generators. Sunny
deserts are ideal places for such "solar power" plants because
uninhabited land is available at very low cost.
Another way of producing electricity from sunlight is with
"solar electric cells." (Figure 10.3) Some special materials
produce electricity whenever illuminated by light. In many areas
fiat sheets of such solar electric cells on rooftops of one-famfiy
homes could produce enough non-polluting electricity for all
needs in that home.
One obstacle to replac'mg the burning of coal for electric-
ity is that electricity from wind and sunlight now costs some-
what more to produce. However, the cost of energy from wind
and sunlight is corn'rag down very fast as improvements are
made. It could be reduced even faster with "mass production"
(production of many more wind and solar power plants).
Energy from wind and sunlight would also replace coal more
quickly if the large hidden cost of pollution caused by using
coal were added to the price of the electricity it produces.


110 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

Figure 10.3. This array of solar cells produces electricity from sunlight. In the future,
2 percent of the land area of all deserts in the world could produce enough non-polluting
hydrogen fuel for all cars in the world. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co.)

Another serious obstacle is that wind and sunlight are not
available whenever we want electricity. There are times when
there is little or no wind and little electric power is produced.
There is little sunlight on cloudy days and none at all at night.
To solve that problem we need to have practical ways of storing
the energy unt'fi it is needed.
This can be done with batteries, but they are still too
expensive and heavy for most uses.
One good way of storing energy is to use the electricity
from wind and solar power plants to produce hydrogen gas,
an excellent, dean-burning, non-polluting fuel. This is easily
done by sending electricity through water (electrolysis of wa-
ter). The water molecules are broken apart into the separate
hydrogen and oxygen atoms of which they are composed. The
hydrogen can be stored in tanks for use as fuel for cars, home
heating, and cooking. The non-polluting oxygen may be used
for various industries.
Hydrogen is an ideal fuel because it is non-polluting when
burned. All it produces is pure water, as steam, which does
not produce acid rain, carbon dioxide, or pollute the air.
Hydrogen, or chemicals made from it, can also produce
electricity in a device called a "fuel cell." Such fuel cells could


Science: Past, Present, and Future 111

use stored hydrogen in homes or local areas to produce electric-
ity as needed.
Scientists are also working on ways to use the green chloro-
phyl in leaves, or chemicals like it, to use sunlight to produce
clean fuels such as hydrogen.
All of these ways of producing hydrogen in non-polluting
ways could some day completely solve our problems of using
energy without polluting the air.
There are also other ways of getting non-polluting energy.
Underground hot spots in the earth (geothermal energy) can
be used to heat homes and produce electricity. Electric power
could also be produced from tides, waves, and warm ocean
currents (ocean thermal energy).
Such big changes in the way we get our energy cannot
be made quickly. However, we could speed them up with more
scientific research and development (experiments to make new
devices more practical). If more scientists and engineers were
put to work making improvements, we could greatly reduce or
even eliminate air pollution much more quickly and save a lot
of energy in the long run.
Each kind of energy has advantages and disadvantages
that have to be weighed very carefully. Costs are important,
especially the hidden costs that are now not taken into account.

EVERYONE CAN HELP SOLVE OUR BIG PROBLEMS

Everyone knows that the world now faces many difficult prob-
lems that will have to be solved as soon as possible. The big
problems of pollution, overcrowding (population explosion),
health, peace or war, drugs, and crime are all difficult to solve.
But people who can think clearly, in every walk of life, have
proved to be very resourceful in the past. We could use our
wonderful brains in the future, as we have in the past, to solve
many of today's problems.
Everybody has an important part to play in creating a bet-
ter world. Whatever they happen to do for a living, as scientists,
engineers, businessmen, workers, government leaders, econo-
mists, teachers, consumers, or citizens who vote, they can all
help solve our problems. They will do it much more effectively
if they learn to use scientific ways of thinking in which facts,
not fairy4ale fiction, are used to make decisions.


112 Part Two: Science as a Way of Thinking

You must not become discouraged. The human mind and
the huge fund of knowledge we now have can be used to solve
fhe difficult problems we face. But it will take hard work and
good will by all of us to achieve that goal.
You do your part and set the example for others. Together
everyone can help bring about a better world for all of us to
enjoy.


 
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