The Chinese Book of Changes, the Yi Jing, was compiled, as we know it today, by King Wen at the end of the Shang dynasty in the 12th century b.c. His sources were the oracular traditions employed by the sages of the Shang dynasty, which, according to legend, were originally devised at the dawn of civilization by the mythical culture hero Fu Xi, who had also invented writing, fishing, and trapping.
The Book of Changes serves as both a repository of timeless wisdom and as an oracle which may be consulted using a number of divinatory methods. All such methods involve the construction of a figure (termed a "hexagram" by Legge and subsequent Western scholars) composed of six elements, each element being either a simple line segment (------), considered to be Yang or "light, " or a divided line segment (-- --), considered to be Yin or "dark."
Each of the 64 possible hexagrams has its own meaning and oracular value, each of which is described in the text of the Yi Jing and in its commentaries known as the "Ten Wings," written by philosophers of the Confucian school. In addition, the Yi Jing provides for the construction of a secondary hexagram from the primary hexagram based on special cases of Yin and Yang called "moving lines." Each moving line in the primary hexagram has a special comment written by the Duke of Zhou (son of King Wen, and younger brother of King Wu, who founded the Zhou dynasty). The secondary hexagram is formed as the moving Yang lines "change" into Yin lines, and the moving Yin lines "transform" into Yang lines. The secondary hexagram so formed has its own oracular value which is to be considered in the context of that of the primary hexagram and its moving lines.
The two traditional methods of constructing a hexagram
are the "yarrow stalk method" and the "coin method."
| Between index and middle fingers: | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Between middle and ring fingers: | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Between ring and little fingers: | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Between index and middle fingers: | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Between middle and ring fingers: | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Between ring and little fingers: | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
The other traditional method of constructing a hexagram employs three coins instead of 50 yarrow stalks, and is considerably quicker than the yarrow stalk method.
Using either method, the probability of obtaining
a Yin line or a Yang line is equal. The probability
of obtaining either is once in two tries, or ½, or 50%.
Using either method, the probability of obtaining any particular
hexagram is once out of 64 tries, or 1/64. However, the probability
of obtaining a moving line versus a stable line differs according
to which method is used, as follows:
Note that with the yarrow stalk method, it is easier to get a
moving Yang line and more difficult to get a moving Yin
line. This discrepancy in probability is all due to the first
operation of the yarrow stalk method, which is biased towards
an outcome value of 3 against that of 2 by a factor of 3 to 1.
The coin method can be modified to give approximately
the same probabilities as the yarrow stalk method, as follows.
Identify one of the three coins by some distinction in size,
color, age, etc.; or paint a small dot on one of one of the coins,
on the side which is valued 2. When the three coins are thrown
and the "special" coin reads 3, the values of the three
coins are added as usual. However, if the special coin reads
2, the special coin is thrown again, and then the values of the
three coins are added.
Aleister Crowley was an avid student of the Yi Jing, and frequently consulted the oracle throughout his adult life. He usually obtained his hexagrams using a non-traditional method of his own devising. He used six flat, wooden sticks, each of which had a notch cut in the center of one side. He painted the inside of the notches red for contrast. With his eyes closed, he would shuffle the six and lay them out in front of him to form a hexagram, from bottom to top. Yin lines would be indicated by the sticks with the notched sides up, and Yang lines would be indicated by the sticks with the unbroken sides up. This flat stick method yields the same probability of obtaining any particular hexagram as either the yarrow stalk method or the coin method, and it has the added benefit of providing a graphical representation of the hexagrams.
Crowley evidently used at least two methods to obtain "moving lines" for consulting the text on the lines by the Duke of Zhou. One method was to push one or more sticks slightly to the side, based on "feel," to indicate the moving lines. Another method is indicated by the fact that one of Crowley's sticks was marked with paint on one end. The marked stick would indicate a single moving line in each hexagram obtained. Obviously, the probability of obtaining a moving line would be very different with the latter method than with either of the two traditional methods. One moving line will always occur in every hexagram obtained, and there will never be more than one moving line in any hexagram obtained. This would obviously provide a simpler oracle to interpret, but it would also be somewhat deficient in subtlety with respect to an oracle obtained using either of the two traditional methods. In addition, the text for Hexagrams I and II, Qian and Kun, both include material which is applicable only when all the lines are moving lines; which material would be unusable with this method.
It is possible, however, to adapt the flat stick method, with its graphical image of the hexagram, to provide the same probabilities for moving lines as either the coin method or the yarrow stalk method.
To produce roughly the same probabilities as the coin method, twelve sticks must be constructed. Six of these are painted on one end only. When constructing a hexagram, all twelve sticks are shuffled, and six of the twelve are dealt out to build the hexagram. Those lines with the painted end on the left side only (or on the right side only - consistency is the key) are interpreted as moving lines.
To produce roughly the same probabilities as the
yarrow stalk method, sixteen sticks must be constructed, six of
which are painted on one end only. The 16 sticks are shuffled,
and six are dealt out to construct a hexagram. Yang lines
which are painted on either end are interpreted as moving
lines; but Yin lines which are painted only on the left
end (or only on the right end, as before) are interpreted
as moving lines.
Probability theory is based on one fundamental assumption: that the events in question are random. If one holds oracular phenomena to be non-random, then considerations of probability are entirely irrelevant, and it is only necessary to ensure that all desired outcomes are possible. The oracle can be viewed as being guided by intelligence or a cosmic pattern; in which case the same hexagram would be produced for a given set of circumstances regardless of the method used, provided the guiding intelligence had been properly invoked through satisfaction of the moral and ritual requisites.
On the other hand, randomness, or Chaos, can be seen
as an aspect of the Dao, or as the mirror of the Subconscious;
and the selection of different oracular methods can be viewed
as influencing the circumstances of the questioner and thus the
outcome of the oracle. In the end, the consultation of any oracle
requires the use of a well-developed intuitive capacity; and it
is intuition which should be used to select the oracular method
to be employed.